Victorian election minus nine days

Four fun facts:

• Roy Morgan has exposed itself to ridicule by not only publishing a phone poll of the four Labor-versus-Greens seats from a sample of just 276, but also purporting that meaningful conclusions can be drawn from the seat-by-seat breakdowns (“Greens set to win Inner Melbourne seats of Richmond & Northcote; Vote in Brunswick & Melbourne ‘too close to call’”). The best that can be done with the poll is to combine the results and compare them with the 2006 election, which shows the Greens up 17 points on the primary vote, Labor down 16 points and the Liberals up three, with a two-party swing to the Greens of 8 per cent – and even then a margin of error approaching 6 per cent must be taken into account. For what very little it’s worth, a uniform 8 per cent swing would deliver the Greens Melbourne, Richmond and Brunswick, but not quite Northcote. We aren’t told how preferences were allocated, but clearly it wasn’t on the basis of the last election – the Greens’ preference share has gone from 74 per cent to 41 per cent.

• SportingBet has the Liberals short-priced favourites to take Mount Waverley, Gembrook and Forest Hill, narrower favourites in Mitcham, South Barwon and Mordialloc, and even stevens in Frankston and Prahran. A little surprisingly, Labor are short-priced favourites to retain all seats reckoned to be under threat from the Greens. Taken together, this points to Labor winning a reasonably comfortable victory with between 49 and 51 seats out of 88.

• Antony Green’s upper house calculators are now open for business. Antony’s own experiments with various plausible scenarios have raised at least the possibility of boilovers in Eastern Victoria, where Family First, the Democratic Labor Party or (most likely) the Country Alliance might be a show, and Northern Metropolitan, where independent carers’ advocates have drawn first spot on the ballot paper and done well out of preferences.

• The Victorian Electoral Commission has upheld a complaint against Democratic Labor Party material purporting to provide instructions on how to vote “Labor for Northern Victoria”, but in doing so has ruled that the Australian Labor Party too is forbidden from identifying themselves simply as “Labor” on how-to-vote material.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

182 comments on “Victorian election minus nine days”

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  2. lefty E

    “As for Burnside’s letter..”

    you mean you did not like its contents where Burnside bcls Labor’s Wynne

    Now if Burnside’s letter was backing Greens’ Maltzahn , then you’d be saying its come from a reliable reference

    NOTE Jolly ewanted to pref Wynne , and got over rulled , you left that out as well ,
    Richmond may depend on how high his votes is , but think Labor will hold if Libs do hand out norm HTV’s

  4. Thats an interesting point William,
    The bookies have a huge set of numbers really suporting the reeleciton of the ALP government, however, in some of these seats I wonder if there is some value there, it reminds me of the Howard lose, the money was with the incumbant. Quite a few here saw it and I think the $100 was the standard. Go Maxine, bit of bad luck last time.
    I think Possum worked up a chart? of the outcome by the bookies odds at some stage, I wonder if there is someone with way to much time on their hands who wants to do it for the State.
    Do we have any sense that there will be some more ‘credible’ seat polling? Oh and lastly, what does this say about Turnsides opinion of Pyke.
    Come on GG, you, for one who loves to bait, are the easiest to stir on this whole site. Go on GG, you know you want to.

  5. Barking

    “Come on GG, you, for one who loves to bait, are the easiest to stir on this whole site. Go on GG, you know you want to.”

    Barking , with a odd name like Barking you seem to be th one barking , almost desparate

  6. Pegasus, so because Labor have preferenced a party that wants to “destroy the Greens” you will give your second preference to a party (The Liberals) that also wants to destroy the Greens?

    The Liberals decision to not preference the Greens seems to have sent it’s supporters round the bend. Well done Greg “We hold all the cards” Barber. Well done

  8. Re preferences, I wonder if there will be an increase in the number who vote below the line or the number who only use 1,2,3,4,5 and legally leave the rest blank. Personally I doubt it.

  9. 58

    Greens voters voting BTL for the Green candidates only cost the Greens votes in South Eastern Metro and Northern Victoria where they only ran 3 last time. They are running 5 in each region this time. The Coalition and ALP are running 5 in each region too. The DLP is running 5 in 5 regions.

  14. Barking,

    You are just another of these Greens sociopaths that just seek attention regardless of the embarrassment you bring to your friends, family and self.

  15. Spot the difference.

    I don’t want to keep the bastards honest – I want to get rid of the bastards.”

    – Pauline Hanson, 15 February 2001

    “We are not there to keep the bastards honest – we are there to replace them”

    – Bob Brown, 11 November 2010

  16. madcyril.
    [Pegasus, so because Labor have preferenced a party that wants to “destroy the Greens” you will give your second preference to a party (The Liberals) that also wants to destroy the Greens?]

    I viewed Labor as an ally, albeit a weak ally, against the dark forces of the right. Its preference deal with Country Alliance means that I no longer think that.

    I know what to expect from the Liberals; I can see them for what they are; they do not pretend about their hatred of the Greens. Labor, on the other hand, expect Greens voters to preference them regardless of what they do, including getting into bed with a right-wing party whose stated aim is to destroy the Greens. That is too much for me to stomach.

    Our electoral system entails horse-trading to ensure preference deals. Consequently, all parties have to decide what is in their best interests when striking such deals. No party can be completely principled in such a process as there are always trade-offs. It is all a matter of relativity, of degree, of how much a party is willing to compromise its principles in pursuit of its own self-interest and power.

    In my view Labor has compromised its principle more than the Liberals.

  17. [Spot the difference.]

    I’ve always said Bob Brown is a shameless populist, just like any other MP in politics. The face might change, but the rhetoric stays the same.

  20. [Seems OK now.]
    Just tried again at Sportsbet site…still suspended. (I used the hyperlink supplied at #62, changing Albert Park to Forest Hill)

  23. I have cracked the “code” of the Liberals’ preference decision, and will back at about midnight (after a lot of paperwork and helping schoolchildren) with the answer. (Like Fermat, and hopefully not like Evariste Galois)

  24. “Great” (NOT) to see that 90% of the discussion here involves Greens bashing up Labor and Labor bashing up the Greens.

    Err, guys and gals, what actually matters here is beating Baillieu. Remember him? He’s the leader of the party that none of you want to see as Premier? You know, the one who will win if you don’t all get your act together?

    Any chance that any of you (I see Rocket has the sense to mention such things from time to time) might want to focus on the real job at hand?

  26. [
    Err, guys and gals, what actually matters here is beating Baillieu. Remember him? He’s the leader of the party that none of you want to see as Premier? You know, the one who will win if you don’t all get your act together?
    ]

    At least one Green has stated here that they are likely to preference the Libs ahead of Labor. So that statement isn’t true for all the Greens here. When it comes to beating the Libs, I’m voting Labor so my conscience is clear.

  27. madcyril #76

    At least one Green has stated here that they are likely to preference the Libs ahead of Labor. So that statement isn’t true for all the Greens here. When it comes to beating the Libs, I’m voting Labor so my conscience is clear.

    Tell me, who do you hate more the Greens or the Libs?

    I know the Lib’s preferenced the Greens last but at least people know where they stand. Labor wants the preferences of the Greens but are quite willing to bad mouth them at every opportunity. The thing is that most Greens voters are ex ALP voters like my self. The question is do you really think us “straying sheep” are going to return to the Labor “family” with the amount of venom that you and other Labor blowhards are directing this way?

    Personally I am proudly non-rusted on to any party. If the Greens, Labor, Liberal or who ever provides policies that I am happy with I will vote for them.

  28. [
    Personally I am proudly non-rusted on to any party. If the Greens, Labor, Liberal or who ever provides policies that I am happy with I will vote for them.
    ]

    Good for you Mick. I’m proudly voting Labor.

  30. Kennett’s gaffe is not only an embarassment and unwelcome distraction for Baillieu, it helps reminds voters of the reasons not to vote Liberal again

  32. Andrew,

    Before today’s little disgrace, Kennett was totally and voluably in favour of putting Labor last after the Greens. He even criticised Helen Kroger for putting up the idea. He’s also criticised the notion of building a train line to Tullamarine because it used up precious Capital and then would be a further drain on the Government coffers because it would be un profitable.

    I notice that Kennett has been ignored on both these key issues.

  33. Madcyril #78

    Good for you Mick. I’m proudly voting Labor.

    And good for you too. I am am happy you vote Labor, for me they don’t represent labour values any more no matter how you spin it. I know the Greens are FAR FROM PERFECT but how is your party going to win me back? Your lot seem more intersted in winning voters who engage in talk back radio, people who would never vote for Labor in a million years.

    Good luck in the election and good luck with your team. Oh by the way which team is Labor, Commodore or Falcon?

  34. Speaking of former Liberal leaders, I notice Malcom Fraser popped up today to endorse Baillieu. He gave the Federal Libs a few nice backhanders at the same time

    [

    Making a distinction between his preferred style of Liberal and the conservative federal leadership, Mr Fraser said: “If there is to be a revival of the Liberal vote in Victoria, a revival of Liberal fortunes in this state, then it is also important that it be seen that a Liberal is in charge of the Liberal Party, and Ted Baillieu is that.”

    He said the Liberal vote in Victoria during the federal election was as bad as anything the party had seen since before Henry Bolte came to the leadership in 1953. “I’ve made the clear distinction that the party had moved federally too far to the Right, but in the state arena I support Ted Baillieu,” he said.

    “I think he is a Liberal with liberal principles and values, which I believe are important to good government.”

    Mr Fraser said the Greens’ surging vote reflected disenchantment with both the major parties.

    He said the federal Liberal Party had demonstrated it had “no coherent economic policy” and Joe Hockey “deserved the belting” he had got from the banks for comments that would not have been out of place from the old Labor Socialist Left.

    ]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/victorian-election-2010/labor-has-run-out-of-steam-says-fraser/story-fn6wlyrv-1225955205871

  35. And while you are all funking around trying to prove how pure your consciences are, whether they be Green or Labor, beating up the other side of the family, etc etc, for the sake of a couple of inner Melbourne seats that it really doesn’t matter much which way they go, what is happening regarding South Barwon through to Seymour, Mt Waverley, Gembrook, Frankston, Forest Hill, Mitcham, Mordialloc, etc?

  36. Rod,

    If they don’t matter. You get your Greens mates to conceed. (Take your armour.)

    Well I’ve actually been giving out HTVs, letterboxing, donating and providing cheerfully accurate advice.

    What’s your contribution Rod?

  39. 84

    Fraser is not correct if you use primary vote.

    In the 2010 Commonwealth Election the Liberals got 3.45% in Victoria.

    http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-15508-VIC.htm

    In the 1961 the Liberals got 36.44% in the Victorian State Election. However the Liberals got DLP and CP preferences and so they won 39 seats to the ALP`s 17 (ALP primary 38.55%).

    http://elections.uwa.edu.au/elecdetail.lasso?keyvalue=905

  41. Long time reader, first time poster.

    In the midst of the Jolly hype (or the Jolly jolly?) it’s interesting to see not much has been said of independent Catherine Cumming in Footscray. I think she is the best candidate placed to pull a Wilkie.

    In 2006, she got 15 odd percent of the vote, with the Liberals on 16%. The Greens actually came last, while Marsha Thomson evaded a preference count on 52%.

    In 2010, if Thomson drops to 44%, with the Greens sapping most of that balance, and if Cumming outpolls the Liberal candidate (I note her message is not as Left-wing as it once was) then Thomson’s vulnerable.

    Spose it matters how much of Cumming’s vote is merely a Greens substitution – in which case, the Labor base in Footscray is solid enough to ride it. This would have to be the safe bet, but it’s a considerable possibility this seat could at least end up with an ALP/IND 2PP.

    In other news, I’d keep an eye on Prahran. Tony Lupton could be John Brumby’s Jane Lomax-Smith. The Liberal candidate sees himself as a bit of a socialite, and is running a Turnbull campaign, heavy on image/values and light on branding.

    Another few predictions:

    -Forest Hill is gone, but the swing won’t be devastating there. One suspects the ‘Kirstie factor’ brought forward the anti-Labor surge four years early in that seat.

    -Watch the Greens swing in Northcote compared to Richmond/Brunswick/Melbourne. It’s the only campaign of the four run by the Right, and (literally) has Stephen Newnham’s fingerprints all over it. If the swing is withheld there, it will be an exemplar for how Labor should campaign against the Greens: hard and proud, none of this ‘Green in red clothing’ business.

  42. Rod Hagen
    Posted Thursday, November 18, 2010 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

    “Either my Green mates or my Labor mates will win the inner city city seats, GG. I don’t care which.”

    everyone knows you’re a Green , thats whose polisys you always defend incl your stated defense of greens lunatic non negot uneconamic 25% cut CC policy

    As you talking about defeating Liberals clearly you is ignorant of your Greens Partys shaby pref deelings which PROVE Greens is happy to hav a Lib Govt as long as Greens win 4 Labor seats off Labor

    Labor offered a straight 2nd pref swap accross bord , using your OWN criteria that wuld hav lessened th chance of a Lib Govt , Greens REJECTED it !

    that destroys your case & Greens credability who clearly happy to incr chance of a Lib Govt

    2nd Labor offer was Labor gives Greens all 2nd prefs & Greens give 2nd prefs in th 25 most marginal Labor seats , again Greens REJECTED

    because Greens were tryin to do a side deel with Libs to tie up Liberal 2nd prefs favoring Greens on those 4 labor held seats !

    Greens shabby pref attempts double deeling Labor and trying secret deels with Liberals for Libs prefs now is shown as not just hypocrital , but damn rite sleezy to assist th election of a Liberal Govt , just so Greens selfish can pinch 4 Labor seats

    whereas Labor acted with principal offering th Greens there 2nd prefs in both Chambers in all seats , so that chances of defeatin Ballieu’s Liberals were max ed
    Why wuld anyone would suport th Greens Party after such a sell out of left values

    (BTW irrespective of vic electon , your lots double deeling pref games hav been declared to Labor (and incident to Libs for future ref)

  43. BR,

    Welcome and nicely considered post.

    Marsha is home.
    Forest Hill needs Pegaus preference.
    Prahran seems safe for Labor.
    Northcote overview is on the money.

    Eastern suburbs and the bush is where the action is.

  44. Using Anthony Greens calculator, the following percentages are the ones required by the DLP to win each seat in the Upper house.
    Eastern Victoria 4.18%
    Eastern Metro 4.92%
    Northern metro 5.11%
    Northern Victoria 4.65%
    South East Metro 4.95%
    Southern Metro 4.58%
    Western Metro 5.27%
    Western Victoria 4.76%
    They have a good chance of winning at least some of these seats.

  45. Southern Metropolitan

    If the Greens poll below 14% Sex Party 2% Group E 0.3% The Greens become the Wasted Quota. Liberals 3, ALP 2

    TARGET GREENS Less then 14%

    The Greens polled 15.1% in 2006 This time they don’t have the Bay side dredging to
    whipped up a false issue and pull in votes. The Sex Party votes have to come from somewhere not just the Democrats ex following.

  46. 91

    The Greens came 4th in a 6 candidate election. They were well ahead of FF and the Socialist Alliance. Green preferences would likely have put Cumming ahead of the Liberal (the Greens ran a split ticket between the ALP and Cumming with the Liberals behind both) had there been a full distribution of preferences. With the Liberal preference decision Cumming is the only candidate who could defeat the ALP this time. She will get the bulk of Liberal preferences (they advise vote 2 Cumming) if she gets past them. The Greens are running a single ticket advising vote 2 Cumming and 3 Socialist Alliance so she is likely to get many Green preferences.

    http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Current/state2010HTVCFootscrayDistrict.html

    The Sunshine Residents and Ratepayers Association Inc. advises Green voters to vote 1 Greens 2 Liberal 3 Sociailist Alliance 4 Cumming 5 ALP. THey also advise Socialist Alliance voter to put the ALP last (but not the Liberals second).

  48. 95

    The Greens polled 20% in Southern Metro at the Senate Election in August. They will poll over a quota on their own. Group A preferences the Greens and vice-versa so the question is whether the no. 2 Green will beat Group A and get their primary or will it be the other way around?

  49. [I have cracked the “code” of the Liberals’ preference decision, and will be back at about midnight (after a lot of paperwork and helping schoolchildren) with the answer. (Like Fermat, and hopefully not like Evariste Galois)]
    My reference to Fermat was because he wrote in the margin of a page that he had proved an important theorem but did not have space on that page to fit it in. No-one knows for sure whether he ever proved it – he never wrote out his proof.

    Evariste Galois died in a duel at age 20 – but he had stayed up the night before writing out all his mathematical theories as he thought (rightly it turned out) that it would be his last night alive! Maybe if had rested before his duel?

  50. Banana Republican
    Posted Thursday, November 18, 2010 at 11:01 pm | Permalink

    “Long time reader, first time poster.”

    welcome

    agree , good post by you
    was readin expect to see somewhere there your comments on 4 inner seats

    think as Footsacray & Prahran exist margins high enuf for any swing , Labors safe there

    Kirsty may got problems in Forest Hills and coupleothers nearby a worry plus couple regional towns areas seats Labor had held prev , but feel not enuf worry Labor seats for Libs to get 12 to get Govt

    (hope northcote for those reasons is a win , if Lib HTV’s hold that should be so espec as Lib pref slipperage should decrease alot due t publicity on issue by both Brumby Ballieu , and Kroger and tht should also apply at least in Richmond & brunswick as well

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