GhostWhoVotes reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition with a 52-48 lead, unchanged on a fortnight ago. More to follow.
UPDATE: The Australian reports Julia Gillard’s preferred prime minister rating is at an equal low of 49 per cent, down four points on last time, while Tony Abbott is up two to 34 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Graphic here. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 34 per cent, the Coalition is steady on 43 per cent and the Greens are down a point to 13 per cent. Gillard’s personal ratings are now worse than Abbott’s: she is at at 41 per cent on both approval (down three) and disapproval (up four), while Tony Abbott is up three on approval to 44 per cent and down four on disapproval to 42 per cent.
Other matters of note:
• The Prime Minister has announced a panel will be established to consider a referendum question on constitutional recognition of Aborigines. The panel is to report by December next year, and it is currently suggested a referendum will follow at some point within three years. While logic might dictate that it be held simultaneously with the next election, the possibility that election day referendums might act as a drag on the vote of the incumbent has been noted by Peter Brent at Mumble. The panel will have to consider whether the recognition should involve a largely symbolic preamble, or substantive change to the body of the constitution. A 2008 parliamentary inquiry report identified two expressly discriminatory provisions that should be reviewed with any consideration of a preamble. One was the redundant section 25, which requires that population figures used to determine the states’ House of Representatives seat allocations exclude any races disqualified from voting under state law – something now forbidden under the Racial Discrimination Act. The other is section 51(xxvi), empowering the federal government to make laws for “the people of any race for whom it is deemed necessary to make special laws” – from which the words “other than the aboriginal race in any state” were excised by the 1967 referendum. This came under the microscope during the Hindmarsh Island Bridge case of 1998, when the federal government argued that it was not for the High Court to distinguish between permissible positive laws under the section and impermissible negative ones. The court was unable to reach a majority ruling, and constitutional law expert Anne Twomey argues the distinction would likely prove highly vexed in any case. A number of options were canvassed for replacing the existing provision with “a new legislative power in Indigenous affairs subject to the rule of non-discrimination on the grounds of race”, none of which strike me as being terribly promising from an electoral point of view. The same goes for any number of more radical suggestions for constitutional recognition, such as George Williams’ call for constitutional recognition of agreements reached between indigenous people and the various tiers of government, or Professor Kim Rubenstein’s “special Indigenous executive council” empowered to seek explanations from parliament regarding legislation that did not meet its approval.
• Mal Brough has declared an interest in Liberal National Party endorsement for the Sunshine Coast seat of Fisher, incumbent Peter Slipper having most likely signed his political death warrant by accepting Labor’s backing for the deputy speaker position. Brough, who lost his seat of Longman at the 2007 election (Wyatt Roy recovered it for the LNP on August 21), turned his back on the LNP after unsuccessfully resisting the merger as state president of the Liberal Party, believing the terms to have been unduly favourable to the Nationals.
• Some subjects for further investigation, courtesy of events in the mother country. Firstly, Britain’s High Court has overturned the election of Brown government Immigration Minister Phil Woolas for falsely claiming that his narrowly unsuccessful Liberal Democrat opponent had been courting Islamic extremists. Woolas also faces possible criminal charges, and has been barred from standing for public office for three years. Andrew Bolt reproduces one of the offending publications, and argues – rightly in my view – that the presence or otherwise of Woolas in parliament should be decided by voters rather than courts. The episode stands in stark contrast to Australian practice, where the only substantial sanctions on misleading publications in election campaigns require that the deception be “in relation to the casting of a vote” – for example, through the distribution of misleading how-to-vote cards. The Labor-Greens agreement reached after the August 21 election obliged the government to seek to address this by establishing a “truth in advertising” offence in the Electoral Act.
• Secondly, the Court of European Rights has ruled Britain must grant the right to vote to prisoners, who have been denied it since the Reform Act of 1867. Parliament must now decide whether to thumb its nose at the court. There are echoes here of our own High Court’s 2007 ruling that overturned a Howard government move to extend the existing ban on prisoners serving terms of longer than three years to all prisoners regardless.
• Some Christmas gift ideas for the election wonk in your life. Courtesy of the Federation Press comes Professor Graeme Orr’s The Law of Politics: Elections, Parties and Money in Australia, “the first dedicated monograph on the law on democratic politics in Australia”. And from the Cambridge University Press comes Sally Young’s How Australia Decides: Election Reporting and the Media, a “four-year empirical study” offering “the only systematic, historical and in-depth analysis of Australian election reporting”.
zoomster
you illustrate exactly what Black Saturday was all about. And you are right about Eltham. As I posted earlier, the change in wind saved Eltham, Greensborough, Doreen and the like on that day.
I think people from other states, think it was a big bushfire, but it was a super storm of fires.
[victoriaPosted Sunday, November 14, 2010 at 8:04 pm | Permalinkzoomster
you illustrate exactly what Black Saturday was all about. And you are right about Eltham. As I posted earlier, the change in wind saved Eltham, Greensborough, Doreen and the like on that day.
I think people from other states, think it was a big bushfire, but it was a super storm of fires
]
I knew it was a Firestorm – it wasn’t some sort of scrubfire that Dio was implying.
Scorpio
[Most of what the media are pushing on behalf of the Fibs is just partisan, illogical nonsense. How stupid do they think we are?]
I think the whole debate surrounding immigration is a smokescreen.
When I speak to people & I drill down on their concerns it is almost always about racism. That is how the Coalition has framed the electorates concerns about this issue.
Frank Calabrese
I know your understand it wasn’t a garden variety bushfire. 🙂
Dee,
Sad, but very true.
bemused @3945,
Interesting point. Something I had not considered.
Perhaps one way around that would be for industry groups to pay for training out of a central industry fund rather than individual employers?
But then I suppost that does not address the problems of apprentices being poached by other industries. It would be interesting to see what could be done.
Whatever, I think industry needs to take more responsibility for training.
Zoomster:
Sobering tale. We drove right beside the Beechworth fire not long after it started up on Buckland Gap road. The CFA were coming behind us. I was 7 months pregnant and we were driving down to Myrtleford because the power had cut out and I couldn’t handle the heat without air conditioning! Little did we know that the power was out because a tree branch had fallen on the line and started the fire. In hindsight we were travelling in exactly the wrong direction but you couldn’t see the smoke that day because of the haze that had blown in with the Nor’westerlies. We got through before the fire jumped back over the road and burnt out the top of the Murmungee escarpment before going back over Buckland Gap.
We were down in the Dandenongs a few weeks ago getting some plants. That’s a death trap waiting there if ever I saw it. Masses of ladder fuel all around Olinda, Monbulk, Ferny Creek and Sherbrooke. Narrow, steep and winding roads. Thousands and thousands of people to try and get out. But then we live in a dangerous area too – it’s just that we don’t have to deal with tens of thousands of people in order to get out, just a few hundred.
Were you living in Bright in 2003/2006? (I’ve worked out who you are now 😉 )
[I find it amazing that major industry and business groups continue to call for more and more training and apprentice incentives from governments yet in the main have sat on their bums themselves over the years and have done very little.]
Very true. I think the 90s was a great era of bad management. Business could get away with no longer training people because there were more skilled applicants than jobs. Now that is reversed, they have lost the ability to train people.
Recently I sawe a documententary on Black Saturday called Firestorm and one of the guys from Kilmore made the point that this fire was extremely aggressive and he was actually on scene within five to six minutes and already the fire was going,
This was due to the wind and the location of the fire.
Knowing members of the CFA, I can assure Bemused that the CFA responded to the Kilmore East fire in its normal procedural manner but unlike many fires that start small that fire was extremely aggressive.
Bascially there was little anyone could do that day other than try and get out of the way of the fire.
[We were down in the Dandenongs a few weeks ago getting some plants. That’s a death trap waiting there if ever I saw it. Masses of ladder fuel all around Olinda, Monbulk, Ferny Creek and Sherbrooke]
Couldn’t agree more. We had a small fire up around Tecoma (we’re now in Qld)& I still remember my daughters friend phoning us to come and get her she was home alone. There were only two cars going into the smoke, ours and another and I was astonished to see that car throw a live cigarette butt out of the window. But if that fire had of taken hold the whole mountain would have gone up.
Which nurseries did you visit btw? Our favourite was the Wishing Well, near Tessellars.
The other thing about that day was that even when the CFA were there there was little that could be done. The crew behind us were just trying to get everyone off the road and out of the area. There were crews on the side of the road watching as the fire took off up and over the hill.
I also concur that the media had no clue about what was going on. Our community has been threatened by fire in 03, 06 and 09 so the fire tree gets going very quickly as we have limited ways of getting out. But in 09 it took about an hour before any clear info was getting into the community. Listening to ABC local radio made it clear how crazy it was out there.
And it was still over 40 degrees at midnight on that day. Insane conditions.
[I knew it was a Firestorm – it wasn’t some sort of scrubfire that Dio was implying.]
Yes if it was a scrubfire you could have been excused for going to the pub.
Fiz
Beechworth Bakery, Yum! 🙂
The media’s performance on Black Saturday was nothing short of pathetic. Its reporting was non existance
[DiogenesPosted Sunday, November 14, 2010 at 8:22 pm | PermalinkI knew it was a Firestorm – it wasn’t some sort of scrubfire that Dio was implying.
Yes if it was a scrubfire you could have been excused for going to the pub.]
Please quit now before you dig a hole deep enough to reach Antartica.
Fiz
I hope we never experience another day like it. Of course, the lead up to those horrendous conditions were years in the making. But the heatwave the week before, when we had 4 consecutive days above 44 degrees, was the icing on the cake. Then to have a 47 degree day with wind speeds in excess of 100 kph, was all that was needed to ignite the bush.
[Fiz
Beechworth Bakery, Yum!]
There’s also a damn good lolly shop just down the road…
Finns,
He’s reached the sewer and seems quite happy there.
Doyley @ 3957
My points are not original thoughts but have been out there for some time.
There are Group Apprenticeship schemes where apprentices work for a number of employers and have the group scheme pay for them. I am not sure how it is funded but I would guess some sort of contribution from business and some from govt.
I just came across this on skilled migration to solve the skills shortage.
Our migration shame is over
Once again Chris Bowen is on the front foot. For a start…
I recommend reading the whole article. You may need to register (free).
To highlight the aggressive nature of the fire in the doco a senior firefighter made the point that at one point he thought their was someone goign around lighting fires for they were appearing a long way from the actual fire front.
[mexicanbeemerPosted Sunday, November 14, 2010 at 8:24 pm | PermalinkThe media’s performance on Black Saturday was nothing short of pathetic. Its reporting was non existance
]
Even from Their ABC who weere suppsed to be the offical Bushfire Network – Newsradio were relaying 774 Nationally and frankly – they were all behaving like headless chooks – I reckon people would’ve got more sense by listening to the CFA on a Sanner and relying on our “Media”.
As a side note, I ventured outdoors wearing sunglasses, within minutes, the plastic on the sunglasses started to heat up against my skin. The air was like a hot oven.
[victoriaPosted Sunday, November 14, 2010 at 8:25 pm | PermalinkFiz
I hope we never experience another day like it. Of course, the lead up to those horrendous conditions were years in the making. But the heatwave the week before, when we had 4 consecutive days above 44 degrees, was the icing on the cake. Then to have a 47 degree day with wind speeds in excess of 100 kph, was all that was needed to ignite the bush.
]
You’d think that would give you a clue in regards to getting your fire plan ready and preparing to escape at a moment’s notice.
mexicanbeemer
I have not seen the doco. Is it worthwhile?
The ABC’s problem partly was they insteaded on having every flare up checked with the CFA, only problem the CFA were struggling to keep up.
My comments at the media was aimed more at the non ABC media
GG
That’s right. The Royal Commission was wrong. I’m sure they were anti-Labor plants.
Firestorm was interesting, it went for about an hour and involved interviews with survivers and CFA personal. it included an interview with a person from the Weather Channel discussing the climate conditions.
It was a good overview of the tragic events.
Diogs,
It’s you who are wRong.
[mexicanbeemerPosted Sunday, November 14, 2010 at 8:30 pm | PermalinkThe ABC’s problem partly was they insteaded on having every flare up checked with the CFA, only problem the CFA were struggling to keep up.
My comments at the media was aimed more at the non ABC media
]
Which isd why I reckon the ABC (and other media outlets) set up a small studio staffed with both a jouro – easy to allocate one when the thee is a total fire ban day listed and a CFA media liason person. ATM the ABC rely on media releases and alerts issued by the CFA/RFS/FESA.
bemused
I didn’t hear anything about this policy announcement.
[So overall, Chris Bowen has boldly laid out a plan that promised to bring older, more experience workers to Australia – including many more professionals with the communications skills to walk straight into management roles.
This, according to Bowen’s department, is all about selecting “migrants with
the high value, nation-building skills” – and he’s betting that the consequent boon to the economy will more than offset the billions of dollars lost to our one migration-linked education sector.
And as with all bold policy, expect to see the minister excoriated on the floor of parliament house.
Heather Ridout of AiG put the first boot in yesterday arguing that the new points system unfairly privileges university qualified applicants when our mining sector, in particular, is still desperately short of electricians and mechanics.
Other criticisms will follow. But after a decade of shameful rorting that failed to solve many areas of Australia’s skills shortage, this policy is a major step forward.]
|
Diogenes
I think you just have to know that it was the most intense firestorm ever experienced in Australia. No one really was prepared for it. Hopefully the Royal Commission established what is needed to ensure that we are more prepared in future.
Vic
I agree with that.
Diogenes
Good. 🙂
Frank – I agree and in an indirect way that set up may go along way to overcoming the problem of people claiming that they didn’t get a CFA warning.
It woudl then enable the CFA to focus on the task of tackling the fire.
bemused @3970,
Thanks for that.
I will follow that up.
Dee @ 3981
Gee I feel really chuffed by that!!! 😉
I am continually finding out things I didn’t previously know from this blog and links provided. At last I feel I have made a contribution.
I got the link from a Business Spectator email from 12 Nov.
Victoria @ 3982
I think anyone who was on planet earth that day would know it. The overseas media was full of it.
bemused
You should feel chuffed. 🙂 It is appreciated.
But I’m very peeved. I haven’t seen one jot of reporting on it. 😡
Has anyone seen any reporting on Bowens announcement?
STOP THE BOATS FROM IRELAND!!!!!
stop the leprechauns
Their ABC gets it wRONg:
Travolta was due to appear on Ch 78’s Telethon as well – and our local media knew from last night.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/11/14/3065906.htm
I think it was confessions who suggested that the power base of Federal Labor move to Victoria. This article might be of interest
http://www.theage.com.au/national/labor-revolt-on-sydney-influence-20101113-17rxl.html
Dee @ 3989
I vaguely recall hearing something about it but of course the MSM does not go into that sort of analysis, at least not yet.
It is only a fresh announcement and maybe all the details need to be worked out and of course implementation will take some time.
Phil Coorey on the talk that Oakes sat on the leaks about Gillard
[
Allegation Oakes sat on leak is bullshit. SMH got it at same time
]
http://twitter.com/phillipcoorey
madcyril
I don’t know if you recall, but recently Laurie Oakes was interviewed on LL, and he said wtte that sometimes information comes from the most unlikely sources such as cleaners who overhear discussions between the pollies.
Maybe we can expect a cleaner to come forward to admit leaking! 😉
bemused
[I vaguely recall hearing something about it but of course the MSM does not go into that sort of analysis, at least not yet.]
My translation. They’ll wait for the Coalition to pan it and yell hysterical talking points then the MSM will report it.
victoria,
If they come forward and comes “clean” on the leaking, then they “must” be a cleaner! 😉
vic, yes I saw that. It was a facsinating interview. I was quite surprised when Oakes described how much some pollies say in front of staff such as cleaners etc.
scorpio
too right 🙂
I thought leaks came from the Welsh.