Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition with a 52-48 lead, unchanged on a fortnight ago. More to follow.

UPDATE: The Australian reports Julia Gillard’s preferred prime minister rating is at an equal low of 49 per cent, down four points on last time, while Tony Abbott is up two to 34 per cent.

UPDATE 2: Graphic here. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 34 per cent, the Coalition is steady on 43 per cent and the Greens are down a point to 13 per cent. Gillard’s personal ratings are now worse than Abbott’s: she is at at 41 per cent on both approval (down three) and disapproval (up four), while Tony Abbott is up three on approval to 44 per cent and down four on disapproval to 42 per cent.

Other matters of note:

• The Prime Minister has announced a panel will be established to consider a referendum question on constitutional recognition of Aborigines. The panel is to report by December next year, and it is currently suggested a referendum will follow at some point within three years. While logic might dictate that it be held simultaneously with the next election, the possibility that election day referendums might act as a drag on the vote of the incumbent has been noted by Peter Brent at Mumble. The panel will have to consider whether the recognition should involve a largely symbolic preamble, or substantive change to the body of the constitution. A 2008 parliamentary inquiry report identified two expressly discriminatory provisions that should be reviewed with any consideration of a preamble. One was the redundant section 25, which requires that population figures used to determine the states’ House of Representatives seat allocations exclude any races disqualified from voting under state law – something now forbidden under the Racial Discrimination Act. The other is section 51(xxvi), empowering the federal government to make laws for “the people of any race for whom it is deemed necessary to make special laws” – from which the words “other than the aboriginal race in any state” were excised by the 1967 referendum. This came under the microscope during the Hindmarsh Island Bridge case of 1998, when the federal government argued that it was not for the High Court to distinguish between permissible positive laws under the section and impermissible negative ones. The court was unable to reach a majority ruling, and constitutional law expert Anne Twomey argues the distinction would likely prove highly vexed in any case. A number of options were canvassed for replacing the existing provision with “a new legislative power in Indigenous affairs subject to the rule of non-discrimination on the grounds of race”, none of which strike me as being terribly promising from an electoral point of view. The same goes for any number of more radical suggestions for constitutional recognition, such as George Williams’ call for constitutional recognition of agreements reached between indigenous people and the various tiers of government, or Professor Kim Rubenstein’s “special Indigenous executive council” empowered to seek explanations from parliament regarding legislation that did not meet its approval.

• Mal Brough has declared an interest in Liberal National Party endorsement for the Sunshine Coast seat of Fisher, incumbent Peter Slipper having most likely signed his political death warrant by accepting Labor’s backing for the deputy speaker position. Brough, who lost his seat of Longman at the 2007 election (Wyatt Roy recovered it for the LNP on August 21), turned his back on the LNP after unsuccessfully resisting the merger as state president of the Liberal Party, believing the terms to have been unduly favourable to the Nationals.

• Some subjects for further investigation, courtesy of events in the mother country. Firstly, Britain’s High Court has overturned the election of Brown government Immigration Minister Phil Woolas for falsely claiming that his narrowly unsuccessful Liberal Democrat opponent had been courting Islamic extremists. Woolas also faces possible criminal charges, and has been barred from standing for public office for three years. Andrew Bolt reproduces one of the offending publications, and argues – rightly in my view – that the presence or otherwise of Woolas in parliament should be decided by voters rather than courts. The episode stands in stark contrast to Australian practice, where the only substantial sanctions on misleading publications in election campaigns require that the deception be “in relation to the casting of a vote” – for example, through the distribution of misleading how-to-vote cards. The Labor-Greens agreement reached after the August 21 election obliged the government to seek to address this by establishing a “truth in advertising” offence in the Electoral Act.

• Secondly, the Court of European Rights has ruled Britain must grant the right to vote to prisoners, who have been denied it since the Reform Act of 1867. Parliament must now decide whether to thumb its nose at the court. There are echoes here of our own High Court’s 2007 ruling that overturned a Howard government move to extend the existing ban on prisoners serving terms of longer than three years to all prisoners regardless.

• Some Christmas gift ideas for the election wonk in your life. Courtesy of the Federation Press comes Professor Graeme Orr’s The Law of Politics: Elections, Parties and Money in Australia, “the first dedicated monograph on the law on democratic politics in Australia”. And from the Cambridge University Press comes Sally Young’s How Australia Decides: Election Reporting and the Media, a “four-year empirical study” offering “the only systematic, historical and in-depth analysis of Australian election reporting”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,327 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 87
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  2. I am sure even the state owned Chinese CCTV would blush with what their ABC gets away with – though they’d suspect Tony Abbott was the ruling leader!

  3. [impartiality writ large?]

    You got it Gus. I just can’t believe there’s anyone left that can’t see the obvious and extreme bias at the ABC

  5. How about??

    [Julia Gillard maintains her large lead over Tony Abbott as preferred PM, but Abbott has managed to close the gap slightly in this survey.]

  8. Why is Howes on Lateline discussing old news. What’s the point of this – did something happen today to warrant his opinion/views?

  9. [georgePosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 10:48 pm | Permalinkimpartiality writ large?
    You got it Gus. I just can’t believe there’s anyone left that can’t see the obvious and extreme bias at the ABC
    ]

    According to Mike Williams – the ABC “IS” the Govt 🙂 and has a leftist view.

  12. [georgePosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 10:50 pm | PermalinkWhy is Howes on Lateline discussing old news. What’s the point of this – did something happen today to warrant his opinion/views?
    ]

    He’s competing with Howard for which book will reach the remainder bins first 🙂

  13. Confessions demands twice:

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/11/08/essential-research-51-49-to-coalition/comment-page-10/#comment-678773
    [ So will you apologise for accusing me of being “selective” in my recollections? That’s your accusation, not mine.]

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/11/08/essential-research-51-49-to-coalition/comment-page-12/#comment-678853
    [So no apology Pegasus for your wrongful accusation this morning?]
    Again, no link. Is this what you are referring to and its context? If not, please provide the links to the comment of mine to which you refer. I am confident that you can not just as you have provided no links in response to my questions to you in my recent posts tonight.

    1. Confessions: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/11/05/morgan-54-46-to-labor-3/comment-page-20/#comment-678139
    [Unlike you, most of my posts contain links to evidence-based research or opinions from experts in the field.]
    Indeed. Like when you call people who criticise the Greens bigots.

    2. Pegasus: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/11/05/morgan-54-46-to-labor-3/comment-page-21/#comment-678154

    How selective of you and yet again, no link to the actual comment. I recall using the word “bigot” once (directed at a single individual?) fairly recently but can not remember the context.
    In effect your comment is just another example of a general smear that I am unable to defend myself against.
    —————————————————
    Of all the comments I have made on PB you choose to retort with the one in 1 above. Nothing about accusing you for being “selective about your recollections”.

    Apology warranted – I don’t think so.

  16. [He’s competing with Howard for which book will reach the remainder bins first]

    Frank, I was at our local Big-W last week. The Rat’s book was prominently placed on two face hight rows. 5 days later I was back – the book is nowhere to be found. Maybe it was a sellout? 😛

  18. Yeah Paul Howes, it’s all Rudd’s fault. Every problem can be linked back to Rudd.
    Sheesh.

    You’re not helping mate. Not helping at all.

  19. Glen, i was just being cynical that Your ABC has finally reporting it as it should be, namely “slip” not “slump” “nosedive” “plummet” “collapse” “crash”etc.

  21. [Again, no link. Is this what you are referring to and its context? ]

    You linked to it yourself, so please don’t insult my intelligence by acting coy.

    [Me: Brown is a shrill populist, known for talking out both sides of his mouth, and counter to his own party’s policies.]

    [Pegasus: Your bigotry is plain to see.]

    You denied this when I reminded you of it this morning, yet linked to the very comment in your earlier diatribe. Can you explain this disconnect?

  22. [No Finns I meant if you were running a media outlet how would you report on this Newspoll rather than what was said?]

    Here’s a clue for the clueless. What’s the MOE on the 2% “boost” Abbott saw in his mid 30 number? Feel free to use a calculator

  28. [can I call a friend?

    or twitter poss?]

    No – you can call a Liberal – they’ll explain the tremendous “boost” in Abbott’s numbers.

  29. Sorry if this has been canvassed earlier, but here in the West I have only just seen the 7.30 Report. Rudd was great; swatted Red Kerry’s questions away like Gilchrist launching Panessar over the WACA grandstand.

    Heather Ewart, though… the program’s “Political Editor” raised her usual pompous, self-important, mocking tone a notch further. She has a real problem with women in power. I recall her dissecting the Prime Minister several times during the election campaign, and tonight she bared her claws at the US Secretary of State, calling her “celebrity politician, Hillary Clinton”.

    This is a disgraceful lack of respect by our national broadcaster for the world’s most powerful woman and the office she occupies, as I shall point out to ABC management in an email, reinforced by a snail mail complaint.

  32. [OzymandiasPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 11:03 pm | PermalinkSorry if this has been canvassed earlier, but here in the West I have only just seen the 7.30 Report. Rudd was great; swatted Red Kerry’s questions away like Gilchrist launching Panessar over the WACA grandstand.
    Heather Ewart, though… the program’s “Political Editor” raised her usual pompous, self-important, mocking tone a notch further. She has a real problem with women in power. I recall her dissecting the Prime Minister several times during the election campaign, and tonight she bared her claws at the US Secretary of State, calling her “celebrity politician, Hillary Clinton”.
    This is a disgraceful lack of respect by our national broadcaster for the world’s most powerful woman and the office she occupies, as I shall point out to ABC management in an email, reinforced by a snail mail complaint.
    ]

    Do you expect anything less from Mrs Barrie Cassidy, who is competeing for who can out diss the ALP ? 🙁

  33. [81 GusfacePosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 11:06 pm | PermalinkOzy
    I think young heather is losing it
    she perhaps should report on less cerebal matters such as the aria’s?
    ]

    Or join Play School like Trisha Goddard did 🙂

  34. Thought I’d lob a grenade into the Green-Red love-fest!

    Imagine if John Brumby said this at the Herald-Sun/ SkyNews “people’s forum” at the Burvale next Wednesday when asked about Greens preferences –

    “Government is formed on the floor of Victoria’s lower house, the Legislative Assembly. We believe that stability of this house is the most important thing for Victoria in the next four years, and so the Labor Party has decided to preference the Greens Party last, behind the Coalition, in all lower house seats in the state. We understand this may upset some of you here, but we are doing this in the interests of stability for the next government of Victoria, whether it is led by myself, or by Mr. Baillieu.”

    Of course, I think such a decision is unlikely to affect the outcome of a single lower house seat, but it would sure put the ball back in the Liberals’ court!

    *awaits hail of abuse*

  35. [Again, no link. Is this what you are referring to and its context? If not, please provide the links to the comment of mine to which you refer.]

    This one:

    [Pegasus
    Posted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 10:33 am | Permalink

    confessions,
    How selective of you and yet again, no link to the actual comment. I recall using the word “bigot” once (directed at a single individual?) fairly recently but can not remember the context.]

    I could recall. And did. And have now linked to it, incidentally after you’d already provided links to background context yourself. I could post the rest of your diatribe, but out of courtesy will refrain. If people want to read it they will.

    And again, will you apologise for your wrongful accusations?

  37. Gus @ 81

    The older Ewart gets, the more she uses that whining, cynical, sarcastic tone that seems to say: I can’t believe this bitch has climbed higher up the greasy pole than I have, she has half my talent, intellect and sex appeal.

    Frank @ 82

    Heather and Barrie deserve each other. Can you imagine them whispering sweet nothings in the wee small hours? No, I don’t want to go there either.

  38. [go Julia you good thing. Setting the polls on fire. Dont change a thing]
    Now is not the time to do so. In fact if you’re doing things right the polls should be shite now. Do the popular stuff later in the term.

  39. Ozymandias

    I once saw Barrie and Heather sitting together on a Tram! On one seems to notice them, while they sat there holding arms. all very touchy.

  40. On a Tram, beemer? How proletarian!

    On the Newspoll: who cares? As long as the dip/slump/slide is not enough to ignite leadership speculation, less than three months into a three-year term is a little early to start worrying.

  41. 84

    There is an outside chance that the Greens could overtake the ALP in Prahran and have a chance against the Liberals. The ALP vote would plummet if they decided to preference the Liberals. This could cost the Greens MLCs (which could give the Libs the Legislative Council) and possibly Prahran. The ALP would be kicking themselves if they preferenced the Liberals and this caused them to win Prahran and therefore the election (in a scenario where the Coalition won by one seat with Prahran).

    The ALP is certain to preference the Greens ahead of the Coalition.

  42. confessions at: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/11/08/newspoll-52-48-to-coalition-2/comment-page-2/#comment-678963

    [You denied this when I reminded you of it this morning, yet linked to the very comment in your earlier diatribe. Can you explain this disconnect?]

    Referring back to my post at http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/11/08/newspoll-52-48-to-coalition-2/comment-page-2/#comment-678951

    It is obvious what I am referring to in my interpretation of “selectivity” – your selection of “Indeed. Like when you call people who criticise the Greens bigots.”

    To view my comment “How selective of you and yet again, no link to the actual comment. I recall using the word “bigot” once (directed at a single individual?) fairly recently but can not remember the context.” as denying anything is ludicrous.

    I have posted at length giving source links to everything to provide context. You continue to provide no source links and continue to answer none of my questions where I have asked for evidence to support your accusations.

    For the sake of not continuing to the boredom level of readers, I am done with you and am letting go 🙂

  45. Prahran is an interesting seat for there is a real potential for the Greens to come second. the Liberals should poll mid 40s.

    The Winsor and St Kilda East booths are Green v ALP booths and bascially it will depend on how South Yarra polls and the Toorak West booth depending on its location could be a talking point.

  48. [To view my comment “How selective of you and yet again, no link to the actual comment. I recall using the word “bigot” once (directed at a single individual?) fairly recently but can not remember the context.” as denying anything is ludicrous. ]

    Not really. Here you are at this late hour, having dismissed me twice, bid good night to people, and professed to ignore me at least once still defending yourself against what is a fairly obvious complaint by me. It’s pretty illustrative in my view, even though you are reluctant to acknowledge it.

    [I have posted at length giving source links to everything to provide context.]

    Indeed. Which is why it’s strange you choose to ignore your own links. Only you can answer this question however.

    [You continue to provide no source links and continue to answer none of my questions where I have asked for evidence to support your accusations.]

    Actually I have, but you elect to ignore them, presumably because it’s inconvenient for you. This morning you accused me of “selective” memory, which is plainly wrong. You refuse to apologise for your mistake, something which in my view reflects poorly on you.

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