Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition with a 52-48 lead, unchanged on a fortnight ago. More to follow.

UPDATE: The Australian reports Julia Gillard’s preferred prime minister rating is at an equal low of 49 per cent, down four points on last time, while Tony Abbott is up two to 34 per cent.

UPDATE 2: Graphic here. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 34 per cent, the Coalition is steady on 43 per cent and the Greens are down a point to 13 per cent. Gillard’s personal ratings are now worse than Abbott’s: she is at at 41 per cent on both approval (down three) and disapproval (up four), while Tony Abbott is up three on approval to 44 per cent and down four on disapproval to 42 per cent.

Other matters of note:

• The Prime Minister has announced a panel will be established to consider a referendum question on constitutional recognition of Aborigines. The panel is to report by December next year, and it is currently suggested a referendum will follow at some point within three years. While logic might dictate that it be held simultaneously with the next election, the possibility that election day referendums might act as a drag on the vote of the incumbent has been noted by Peter Brent at Mumble. The panel will have to consider whether the recognition should involve a largely symbolic preamble, or substantive change to the body of the constitution. A 2008 parliamentary inquiry report identified two expressly discriminatory provisions that should be reviewed with any consideration of a preamble. One was the redundant section 25, which requires that population figures used to determine the states’ House of Representatives seat allocations exclude any races disqualified from voting under state law – something now forbidden under the Racial Discrimination Act. The other is section 51(xxvi), empowering the federal government to make laws for “the people of any race for whom it is deemed necessary to make special laws” – from which the words “other than the aboriginal race in any state” were excised by the 1967 referendum. This came under the microscope during the Hindmarsh Island Bridge case of 1998, when the federal government argued that it was not for the High Court to distinguish between permissible positive laws under the section and impermissible negative ones. The court was unable to reach a majority ruling, and constitutional law expert Anne Twomey argues the distinction would likely prove highly vexed in any case. A number of options were canvassed for replacing the existing provision with “a new legislative power in Indigenous affairs subject to the rule of non-discrimination on the grounds of race”, none of which strike me as being terribly promising from an electoral point of view. The same goes for any number of more radical suggestions for constitutional recognition, such as George Williams’ call for constitutional recognition of agreements reached between indigenous people and the various tiers of government, or Professor Kim Rubenstein’s “special Indigenous executive council” empowered to seek explanations from parliament regarding legislation that did not meet its approval.

• Mal Brough has declared an interest in Liberal National Party endorsement for the Sunshine Coast seat of Fisher, incumbent Peter Slipper having most likely signed his political death warrant by accepting Labor’s backing for the deputy speaker position. Brough, who lost his seat of Longman at the 2007 election (Wyatt Roy recovered it for the LNP on August 21), turned his back on the LNP after unsuccessfully resisting the merger as state president of the Liberal Party, believing the terms to have been unduly favourable to the Nationals.

• Some subjects for further investigation, courtesy of events in the mother country. Firstly, Britain’s High Court has overturned the election of Brown government Immigration Minister Phil Woolas for falsely claiming that his narrowly unsuccessful Liberal Democrat opponent had been courting Islamic extremists. Woolas also faces possible criminal charges, and has been barred from standing for public office for three years. Andrew Bolt reproduces one of the offending publications, and argues – rightly in my view – that the presence or otherwise of Woolas in parliament should be decided by voters rather than courts. The episode stands in stark contrast to Australian practice, where the only substantial sanctions on misleading publications in election campaigns require that the deception be “in relation to the casting of a vote” – for example, through the distribution of misleading how-to-vote cards. The Labor-Greens agreement reached after the August 21 election obliged the government to seek to address this by establishing a “truth in advertising” offence in the Electoral Act.

• Secondly, the Court of European Rights has ruled Britain must grant the right to vote to prisoners, who have been denied it since the Reform Act of 1867. Parliament must now decide whether to thumb its nose at the court. There are echoes here of our own High Court’s 2007 ruling that overturned a Howard government move to extend the existing ban on prisoners serving terms of longer than three years to all prisoners regardless.

• Some Christmas gift ideas for the election wonk in your life. Courtesy of the Federation Press comes Professor Graeme Orr’s The Law of Politics: Elections, Parties and Money in Australia, “the first dedicated monograph on the law on democratic politics in Australia”. And from the Cambridge University Press comes Sally Young’s How Australia Decides: Election Reporting and the Media, a “four-year empirical study” offering “the only systematic, historical and in-depth analysis of Australian election reporting”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,327 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. [Janet says: “a lot of moral posturing.” QUEUE JUMPERS!!]

    Why is Janet an expert commentator on anything at all? Especially on asylum seekers. She is a disgusting excuse for a human being.

  2. The longer these polls keep TA as Liberal Leader the better.

    Labor will win a minority government in Victoria, NSW Labor will be thrashed, and by the time the Senate changes on July 1 next year we’ll be in a different ballpark.

  3. When is it time for Howes and the other ‘faceless’ men of the ALP to knife Gillard?

    We could be up for Prime Minister Wayne Swan soon lol oh dear!

    I still cant understand why Tony is doing so well other than Labor doing so badly else I cant put my finger on it?

  4. [When is it time for Howes and the other ‘faceless’ men of the ALP to knife Gillard?

    We could be up for Prime Minister Wayne Swan soon lol oh dear!

    I still cant understand why Tony is doing so well other than Labor doing so badly else I cant put my finger on it?]

    You’re better than this rubbish, Glen.

  5. [When is it time for Howes and the other ‘faceless’ men of the ALP to knife Gillard?

    We could be up for Prime Minister Wayne Swan soon lol oh dear!

    I still cant understand why Tony is doing so well other than Labor doing so badly else I cant put my finger on it?]

    Do you practice on being clueless or does it come naturally?

  6. [Darren I dislike Abbott but Gillard is going nowhere in a hurry.

    I dont understand why Abbott is doing as well as he is honestly.]

    That’s right Glen – he’s doing brilliantly! If an election were held today….. oh wait.

  7. [Darren LaverPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 10:30 pm | PermalinkWhen is it time for Howes and the other ‘faceless’ men of the ALP to knife Gillard?
    We could be up for Prime Minister Wayne Swan soon lol oh dear!
    I still cant understand why Tony is doing so well other than Labor doing so badly else I cant put my finger on it?
    You’re better than this rubbish, Glen
    ]

    What do you expect from a hard-wired Lib who still can’t let go.

  8. [So, how’s that Parramatta-Epping rail line coming along?]

    Ahh, dont worry about that. the Chinese will build it when they finish the Shanghai-Istanbul Line next year.

  9. [I dont understand why Abbott is doing as well as he is honestly.]

    The MSM and their ABC have given him more free passes than any other leader of a major political party in Australian history.

    Abbott was called out by a senior Catholic theologian today, and not one media outlet reported it. The Chinese can only dream of this sort of media control that Abbott benefits from.

  10. Glen,

    Pretty simple.

    Labor lives or dies by the Indies.

    Labor has made certain committments to the Indies with regard to funding and prioristising various committment.

    While it is in the Indies interests to prop up the Government, it will continue in Office.

    Labor, as the Government is getting on with certain matters includig housing asylum seekers in IDCs, continuing the NBN rollout and lately re calibrating the budget because of the 20% increase in the value of the dollar. Each of these and others will cause the Government short term grief and unpopularity in the polls.

    The situation is fluid but Labor can only get on with Governing in the best way for all and trust the end results are approved.

  11. [28 GlenPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 10:36 pm | PermalinkFrank if im such a hard wired Lib why would I be voting for an Independent in my seat of Prahran on the 27th of November???
    ]

    Try Liberal LEANING Independent – if you are so “Independent” I dare you to vote for one who preferences the ALP 🙂

    “Crickets”

  12. [Frank if im such a hard wired Lib why would I be voting for an Independent in my seat of Prahran on the 27th of November???]

    Yeah, nice try.

  13. [Darren I dislike Abbott but Gillard is going nowhere in a hurry.]
    How long has it been since the election again? Really, what a bloody silly comment Glen.

  14. Well, anything is possible. India with a first inning lead over NZ of only 28 collapsed to be 5/15 then 6/82 at end of day 4, but Harbajanh Singh made 115 and Laxman 91 so India saved the game, with HS player of the match for his batting!

  15. [Paul Howes.]

    Oh dear. Just what the ALP don’t need.

    He should go underground for a few years and come back after he’s actually done something positive for the country.

    It’s their ABC.

  16. [GlenPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 10:36 pm | PermalinkFrank if im such a hard wired Lib why would I be voting for an Independent in my seat of Prahran on the 27th of November???
    ]

    Just like those who voted en masse for Adele Carles in Fremantle 🙂

  17. [Darren LaverPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 10:41 pm | PermalinkPaul Howes.
    Oh dear. Just what the ALP don’t need.
    He should go underground for a few years and come back after he’s actually done something positive for the country.
    It’s their ABC.
    ]

    You forgot to add the ramblings of Richo today as well.

  18. [You forgot to add the ramblings of Richo today as well.]

    Yes, Frank, they know how to find the anti-ALP story(ies) of the day.

    Let’s just sell it to the Liberal Party and be done with it – that will at least get the budget back into surplus more quickly!

  19. Frank why would I give my vote to the ALP that would be a wasted vote!

    Oh and BTW George I say to you ‘Bullbutter’!
    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/vic/2010/guide/prah.htm

    Prahran
    DECLARED CANDIDATES Candidate Name
    LUPTON, Tony Australian Labor
    NEWTON-BROWN, Clem Liberal
    CHRISTOFAKIS, Meni Australian Greens
    ANDERSON, Katharine Independent

    So long as she isnt a rabid lefty and is a moderate/centrist candidate she’ll easily have my vote Katharine Anderson.

  20. What is the matter with Their ABC?

    [“The PM’s popularity has SLIPPED“]

    what’s wrong with:

    [“The PM’s popularity has SLUMPED“]

  21. [Frank why would I give my vote to the ALP ]

    You wouldn’t – you vote Liberal and always have. Don’t deny you true self Glen, it will only take you down the path of the dark si…. oh wait.

  22. [Their ABC on preferred leader:

    PM SLIPS to 49%

    Abbott BOOSTED to 34%]

    They just cannot help themselves. It’s shameless, brazen, unadulterated Tory cheer-leading.

    Oh Aunty, what have they done to you???

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