Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll is unchanged from the previous fortnight’s result in every significant particular: Labor leads 54-46 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 43 per cent for Labor, 40 per cent for the Coalition and 10.5 per cent for the Greens. The poll encompasses two weekends’ worth of Roy Morgan’s routine face-to-face surveys, encompassing a sample of 1804.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,100 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

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  8. blue green@987
    thanks for posting that. best analysis of abbott i have yet read. it fits in nicely with that article about alan jones someone posted earlier on this thread.

    what a brace of mad hatters. beware ambition grounded only in itself.

    (one handed typing. I can’t hold a coffee cup and capitalize as well.)

  9. confessions,
    How selective of you and yet again, no link to the actual comment. I recall using the word “bigot” once (directed at a single individual?) fairly recently but can not remember the context.

    In effect your comment is just another example of a general smear that I am unable to defend myself against.

    I could now analyse the last few hundred of your comments on PB and categorise them on the basis of whether your posts consist of opinion only or not but I really do not have the time.

    Anyway, I have made the points I want to and will leave it at that.

  10. victoria@993 – thanks. It was simple but beautiful and 2 very, very happy people made their oldies’ hearts sing. Lousy weather but everything else great.

    Missed out on seeing anything of the PM with HC – how do you think it went?

  11. The federal Liberal Party has been warned by its outgoing treasurer Michael Yabsley that it’s in danger of slipping into insolvency.

    If the Libs can’t manage their party’s finances how can we trust them to run the country’s?

    Sadly, I doubt anyone from Labor will say this, let alone keep hammering the point for the next 3 years. 🙁

  12. BH

    Great to hear, and congratulations. Never mind about the weather.

    I too missed the PM with Hillary. I am keeping an eye out to see if it gets replayed or posted online.

  13. Pegasus:

    You called me a bigot when I called Bob Brown a populist. That’s the point when I decided you weren’t worth responding to, and told you that if you can’t be courteous with other commenters, to leave me out of your tirades. How selective of you not to remember.

    FTR I don’t care about partisans – we’re all partisans here in one way or another. What irks me is that some seem content to pretend they aren’t really partisan, yet accuse others of behaving in that way. In my experience, this behaviour is more common to Greens voters than others, who seem to love bandying around the word “hack”, oblivious to the reality that the term can be equally labelled at them.

  16. [I could now analyse the last few hundred of your comments on PB and categorise them on the basis of whether your posts consist of opinion only]

    Everything I say here is my opinion, unless it is clearly marked otherwise. I don’t pretend to have any special or unique insights.

  17. victoria:
    Howard is certainly out doing the spruiking for his book in time for Christmas. He must be loving all this attention again. I wonder if Hyacinth is a bit jealous.

  18. [Good grief, ABC radio with Jon Faine will have an hour with Howard after 11.00 am.]

    How much publicity can our public broadcaster give one man to flog his book?

  19. The story of the day!
    1 in 10!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    [Editorial: Missed chance to Branch out THE MERCURY | November 08, 2010 02.00am

    WHAT a damning statistic. Only one in 10 Tasmanians aged under 35 voted Liberal at the federal election in August. One in 10.

    Tasmanian Liberal leader Will Hodgman revealed the sobering statistic at the party’s state conference in Launceston yesterday.

    It shows the Liberals are on the nose with Gen Y. Big-time. And it will take more than opening accounts on Facebook and Twitter to turn it around.

    No wonder Mr Hodgman is desperate to reform the party.

    As he points out, it is not just his neck on the line it could be the party’s as well.

    Which is why he did not hold back during a speech to the faithful yesterday.

    Mr Hodgman told the conference the party faced oblivion unless it won the next state election. Defeat would mean the Liberals would spend virtually a generation out of office. ]

    http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2010/11/08/33155_editorial.html

  21. [It shows the Liberals are on the nose with Gen Y. Big-time. And it will take more than opening accounts on Facebook and Twitter to turn it around. ]

    Getting rid of Abetz would be good start, wouldn’t it?

  24. victoria

    jon faine said early this morning that just as Howard wrote his own speeches, he didn’t want a ghost writer for his book. Faine’s opinion was that he could have done with a good editor!!

  25. confessions

    thanks for posting the link.

    lizzie

    I did not hear Jon Faine say that! In any event, I will not be listening to Howard.

  26. victoria

    Nor will I.
    But it lends credibility to the idea that Howard wrote it as a self-justifying memoir, so he wouldn’t want anyone fiddling with his golden words.
    Also, Faine implied it was far too long and boring 😆

  28. Aguirre

    [I’m sure that attitude is quite reassuring to the ALP. ]

    Yes, we should only be reassuring to the Party.

    [But there’s not a lot of good to be said for abandoning that support because you’re having kittens about the polls being 50-50.]

    Yes because the Party knows best.

  31. [1019 blue_green
    Posted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 10:47 am | Permalink
    The story of the day!
    1 in 10!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!]

    they where the links i posted here yesterday old news for us here

  33. Hey Dio, get back to me when you’ve figured out the difference between assessing a party based on its policy or its poll figures. I know it’s a tricky concept to get your head around, but the worth of a policy isn’t determined solely by how it is publicly supported.

    If you agree with that, then I have no beef with you at all. But then if you do, then you weren’t reading my posts properly in the first place. Too busy thinking of a snappy comeback, I suppose.

  35. Aguirre

    Umm. The people who criticised Labor were doing so because they disagreed with their policies and direction, or more specifically its lack of direction.

  36. [Umm. The people who criticised Labor were doing so because they disagreed with their policies and direction, or more specifically its lack of direction.]

    Ummm… wel, I criticised Labor, not so much for their policies which, overall, I think are fairly sound and which I wouldn’t want to see changed significantly as a knee-jerk reaction to polling. On the contrary, I think Labor have an eminently saleable policy platform.

    It does, however, concern me that they seem to be doing a dreadful job of selling it. I’m not having kittens about 50-50 polling per se. I’m fully aware that 50-50 is the equilibrium state of Australian politics. But 50-50 against this opposition? Come on. If that can’t be bettered, as I stated before, we might as well hand the keys of the country over to Murdoch right now.

  37. [Monday, November 8, 2010 at 10:47 am | Permalink
    The story of the day!
    1 in 10!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Editorial: Missed chance to Branch out THE MERCURY | November 08, 2010 02.00am

    WHAT a damning statistic. Only one in 10 Tasmanians aged under 35 voted Liberal at the federal election in August. One in 10.

    Tasmanian Liberal leader Will Hodgman revealed the sobering ]
    north islanders, probably missed the piece about tony saying he will come to Tasmania more often for, no not meetings, not walks through the street but real action.

    he has promised to sail in the Sydney Hobart race before the next election,
    he would also like to participate in many of our runs.

    Now which ones i wonder, is the city to mountain our son runs in that one

    Is the three peeks that our son has also participated in for any who has not heard of this,

    you sail around the island going to King Island, run up the mountains there, and make your way by sailing down the coast and pull in to various spots and run the mountains, then when you reach Hobart you run to the top of Mt. Wellington, this is held at Easter time , it may be snowing on the mountain, or raining if your lucky you may strike good weather o and you run back down again to the docks.
    I hope tone does the lot and more then there is the city to casino 11 k and 23 k run,
    if he does all these things he will have no time for any policy work so he had better get out and start training NOW.
    This is what he must think will make him popular here he also told the liberals to wooooo the ladies.
    O and not to forget the Burnie 10 in the north.

  39. The Race
    The Australian Three Peaks Race is a non-stop offshore sailing and endurance mountain running event, commencing at Beauty Point just north of Launceston on the Tamar River and finishing in Hobart on the Derwent River. En route, the running members of each team have to scale Mt Strzelecki, Mt Freycinet and Mt Wellington.

    The east-coast course around Tasmania affords the best combinations of suitable mountains, coastal centres, accessibility for followers, press crews and the public. It brings publicity and exposure to two of the more beautiful but remote areas of the State, Flinders Island and the Freycinet Peninsula, and takes competitors, supporting groups and the media the length of the beautiful east coast.

    For competitors it offers an interesting alternative for the yachting fraternity and a challenging new activity for runners, climbers and bushwalkers. It is this unique combination of the two disparate disciplines which provides for such a challenging event.

  41. [It does, however, concern me that they seem to be doing a dreadful job of selling it. I’m not having kittens about 50-50 polling per se. I’m fully aware that 50-50 is the equilibrium state of Australian politics. But 50-50 against this opposition? Come on. If that can’t be bettered, as I stated before, we might as well hand the keys of the country over to Murdoch right now.]
    Selling is not the solution. Doing and achieving is.

  42. I think Abbott is setting out on a “journey” to the Sportmen’s Hall of Fame so that he can still feel he’s achieved something even if he loses in the game of politics.
    He’s preparing for the future 🙂

  44. Bank rates

    [TONY ABBOTT: Can you give me an example of when that happened?
    INSERT LO-O-NG SILENCE HERE
    ALEXANDRA KIRK: It didn’t happen then, is that correct?
    INSERT LO-O-NG SILENCE HERE
    TONY ABBOTT: Nope, didn’t happen.]

    The interview did not sound the same when in real time. The pauses were eloquent. Abbott didn’t really know the answer.

  45. [The people who criticised Labor were doing so because they disagreed with their policies and direction, or more specifically its lack of direction.]

    Dio – I think you have mixed up that with Labor’s seemingly inability to SELL its policies properly. Most Labor supporters are disappointed with that because there are actually so many good policy stories to tell.

    I’m hoping Faulkner, Carr and Bracks can find a way for the message to be sold better. Abbott’s ‘bad Labor’ is the only message he has but it is constant. Every sentence on AM today finished with a ‘bad Labor’ refrain.

    I was left wondering why, in the pursuit of balance and fairness, that the ABC’s Alexandra Kirk did not seek an answer or comment from the Labor Party.

    Melissa Clarke gave Abbott and Hockey a good rap on ABC breakfast.

  46. [WHAT a damning statistic. Only one in 10 Tasmanians aged under 35 voted Liberal at the federal election in August. One in 10.]

    Be interesting to know what the figure is in other states, too. Labor may well be losing some voters to the Greens amongst younger age groups , but the coalition are absolutely haemorrhaging in SE Australia with this age group.

  47. Corey Bernardi has a whinge:

    [The political correctness (PC) police must be reeling. After months of personal attacks on me for daring to state my security concerns about the burqa, one of the left’s political pin-ups, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, has stated that banning the burqa has merit.]

    What is he referring to? I heard Clinton say yesterday that the hallmark of our democracy is freedom: freedom of speech, freedom of religious expression etc. What’s Bernardi talking about?

  50. [mfarnsworth | 5 minutes ago
    Julia Gillard is announcing plans for constitutional recognition of Aboriginal Australians in the Constitution. #auspol]

    Excellent!

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