Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll is unchanged from the previous fortnight’s result in every significant particular: Labor leads 54-46 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 43 per cent for Labor, 40 per cent for the Coalition and 10.5 per cent for the Greens. The poll encompasses two weekends’ worth of Roy Morgan’s routine face-to-face surveys, encompassing a sample of 1804.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,100 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. [I’m saying that 2GB etc are a major factor determining political policy.]

    If Labor feel that they have to kow tow to the likes of Alan Jones and his audience when determining policy then no wonder people on the left are leaving! I’m sorry , Frank, but the argument of electoral expediency will only take you so far. It can very quickly land you in water where you don’t want to swim.

  4. Just a quick visit.
    Did anyone see the Rabbott greet Hillary Clinton?
    He had an austere look on his face, tilted his head backwards, looking down his nose at her as he shook her hand.
    No doubt about the Rabbott, he finds it very difficult to mask what he is really thinking & it was pretty obvious he thought himself superior.

  6. Interesting piece on Australia’s F-35 purchase and the lessons from the process

    [
    Time is money, especially when older aircraft, which can’t provide the high performance required in any case, have to soldier on. In this case, the Howard government decided in 2007 that it had to stump up an extra $6 billion to buy 24 Super Hornets to avoid these problems.

    We are getting more than new aircraft. We are also getting a very clear lesson in how to approach defence acquisition. The Super Hornets are being delivered now – right on schedule and under budget. The difference between the JSF and Super Hornet purchases is very simple. Four hundred Super Hornets have been delivered to the US Navy, and they have been in service since 2001. The production line and the aircraft are both mature, meaning that the cost and delivery timeframe were known from the start.

    The RAAF’s most potent aircraft today are the Super Hornets it bought ”off the shelf”. Buying into a complex research and development program isn’t the way to go for a middle-sized defence force such as ours. The JSF will probably mature and overtake the Super Hornet in terms of capability in the future. That’s when the smart buyers will line up and buy it.

    ]

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/fighter-delivers-a-costly-lesson-20101107-17iuh.html

  7. [BK:
    We won against SL! This came on the back of your heroic effort yesterday, suggesting some kind of serendipitous influence on our national team.]
    confessions
    It’s all about courage.

    . . . . or could it be stupidity???

  9. [Just a quick visit.
    Did anyone see the Rabbott greet Hillary Clinton?
    He had an austere look on his face, tilted his head backwards, looking down his nose at her as he shook her hand.
    No doubt about the Rabbott, he finds it very difficult to mask what he is really thinking & it was pretty obvious he thought himself superior.]

    Is it customary for Leaders of the Opposition to meet visitors such as Hillary Clinton? It seems rather superfluous if they’ve come here to meet with the Prime Minister, and in the Rabbott’s case a waste of time anyway. It’s hard to imagine what a self-perceived superior noob like Rabbott would get from meeting with a – shock! horror! – lefty, and a woman at that! Also I doubt he’d have much to offer that would edify her for the time taken from her hectic schedule.

  12. vik

    [Anna Bligh backs rights of same-sex couples to marry …

    Ms Bligh, who became the party’s national president three months ago, told brisbanetimes.com.au she supported legalising gay marriage.

    …“If people love each other and they build lives together and they want that recognised, I think that’s perfectly reasonable.”]

    Bligh, Arbib and Howes are clearly weathervane critics responsible for the hung parliament. They are hypocrites as they dont attack the Libs for being anti-gay marriage.

    FACT

    Radicle Greeens polsys will loose centre core Orstraylylan values and fabric of sosiety will disintergrayt.

    And you know it.

  14. I enjoyed the Frank vs Everyone stoush last night.

    I don’t agree that the county is moving to the right. There was a big shift around 2001 thanks to a heady mixture of terrorism and xenophobia. But since then it’s been readjusting.

    The ALP are moving to the right, yes. But as they so so they leave behind a huge rump of disaffected voters who have bolstered the Greens numbers. So on balance the country is about the same, but the two major parties shifting right creates a false impression. I guess the question for the ALP is: can they shear off enough of the Coalition vote to dominate the centre? Or are they going to get squeezed from both sides?

    I agree totally with Frank that the whingeing isn’t doing the ALP any favours. Saying, “the ALP must do this,” or, “why aren’t the ALP doing this?” merely substitutes repetitious complaints for proper debate. It comes across as an attack of the vapours at seeing the polls where they are.

    What the ALP probably needs a lot more is a bit of what the Coalition have going for them – supporters who get out there and say good things about the party. Loudly and often. You won’t find much hand-wringing over the behaviour of Abbott, Hockey etc etc. Liberal supporters just don’t seem to criticise their own – you’d be lucky to get them to acknowledge faults at all – and that creates a sense of unity where there isn’t one.

  15. Putting the asylum seekers debate/issue into some perspective

    http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/simonbenson/index.php

    “Australia is abou tNo. 22 in the world in the ranking of countries most likely to have people lining up at the border to get in. More people actually apply to get into Cyprus and Malta than they do Australia.”

    “More backpackers are in this country illegally than people who arrive by boat. ”

    “Whether it was the Greeks and Italians, Eastern Europeans, Russians or Turkish, or the Indochinese that followed, the same fears were raised in the community and fostered for political advantage. ”

    What small-minded, bigoted, stupid people we are to be carrying on like we have/are over such an issue.

  16. Oh dear!
    Sloppy calling for a renewed debate on IR. Everyone’s getting paid less under Fairwork Aust. & it is having a detrimental affect on productivity.
    Mmmmm…
    Tell that to those who have been on a different wage tier because they live rural.
    Some I know of have had their wages adjusted accordingly inline with city centres & are now getting $2/3 per hour more.

  17. Libs going broke.

    [THE federal Liberal Party has been warned by its outgoing treasurer, Michael Yabsley, that it is in danger of slipping into insolvency.

    In the first serious outbreak of post-election tensions, Mr Yabsley has launched a scorching critique of party federal director Brian Loughnane and president Alan Stockdale, accusing them of keeping key office bearers in the dark and of turning a deaf ear to attempts by him and others to warn them of serious problems.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/finances-see-liberal-tensions-explode/story-e6frg6n6-1225949134750

  18. Is it customary for Leaders of the Opposition to meet visitors such as Hillary Clinton? It seems rather superfluous if they’ve come here to meet with the Prime Minister, and in the Rabbott’s case a waste of time anyway.

    Cuppa, how could you?? He’s the Alternative Prime Minister! If he doesn’t get the pretend he’s important now and then, what’s the point?

  22. [I hope you’re talking about that Labor hack Psephos (Adam) who used to be on here ]

    No, I was referring to you. I see you in the same way I see Frank: as someone who is unable (or unwilling) to criticise the party you vote for. But at least Frank is honest in that he can openly admit his partisanship.

  24. i never watch kerry anne show but this morning just sat with a coffee

    well whats his name [ is it fordham} some one may know for sure wtte that Julia would be sitting back worring that Kevin had met Hillary first, isnt it the custom for the FM to do so, After all Hilary is the same level at Kevin then he said wtte that Kevin looked Pm ministerial again, well if the press had said that about him he may still be pm.
    i wish i could tweet to Mr,.? that we hold our Pm in as must esteem as he seems to an American lady.

    I like Hilary and respect her as well, but Julia should be given the same respect she is after all our PM

  26. #911 confessions

    I would argue (and am happy to be proved wrong) that 2GB and TT land do not represent a majority of Australians.

    I not only agree that is the case I am also fustrated that the political process in this country is hamstung by a few vocal trype that gravitate to talkback radio.

  27. The Steve Lewis article on Lib finances is better than the Nicki Savva one

    [Libs down to last $1m Steve Lewis National political correspondent

    LIBERAL Party finances are “being run like a 1950s milk bar” and may have fallen to as little as $1 million, insiders claimed yesterday.
    Amid fears that senior officials were being kept in the dark, they have forced the Canberra-based organisation to open its books to scrutiny. But one Liberal insider said last night it was a bad look for a political party that preaches the need for corporate boardrooms to be squeaky clean.

    The brawl came to a head just over a week ago when Tony Abbott and the party’s federal executive met in Canberra for the first time since the August 21 election.

    In another setback for the Opposition, the man who raised the money for the recent federal campaign has resigned as party treasurer. The decision by Michael Yabsley to quit comes as the Liberal’s cash reserves are understood to have slumped to below $3 million, with some insiders suggesting it may be as little as $1 million.

    Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.
    .End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.
    The federal executive – which operates like a company board – is liable in the event the party runs into financial troubles and members are concerned they will be liable for any shortfall.

    They are demanding the party take steps to open the books to full accountability – complaining they have no idea about how money is being spent.

    One senior figure summed up the concerns: “We are not being told all the facts that a board should be told.”

    Another said “governance and accountability issues need urgent attention”.

    Western Australian president Barry Court and Queensland Liberal and National Party (LNP) president Bruce McIver led the charge for greater transparency at the executive meeting.

    They were joined by other executive members – including deputy leader Julie Bishop – in raising concerns over the secret accounts.

    ]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/libs-down-to-last-1m/story-e6freuzr-1225949088730

    Hmmm…. Secret accounts.

  28. TSOP

    Even Mao used to occasionally ask the people to voice concerns about the Party.

    Admittedly it was just a ploy to work out who the troublemakers were so they could be sent to starve in the country.

  29. [ Just what are Alan Jone’s views on same sex marriage? I thought he ‘batted for the other side’? ]

    Sssshhh, morewest…. it’s a secret.

  31. Phil Coorey on the Banks and the Government

    [
    Not only does the government believe the increase is unwarranted, its egregious nature was a political and public humiliation for the Treasurer, Wayne Swan, who had been publicly urging the banks, before any rate raise, not to exceed it. Worse, it handed Swan’s opponent, Joe Hockey, a political victory because of his more public posturing on the issue.

    A contact in one of the other banks said that while they expected public and political outrage, the reaction to the Commonwealth exceeded all anticipation. The other three big banks – Westpac, the ANZ and NAB – were scheduled to move last week but by Friday had decreed it impolitic because of reaction to the Commonwealth and Westpac’s announcement of $6.3 billion profit.

    Over the weekend Norris sniffed at the short-term populism in Canberra which, he said, was damaging Australia’s reputation as a place for business. He should be careful about further goading this government which, to its own political cost, helped the big end of town through the downturn.

    It has not been a reciprocal relationship. The mining giants pulled down a prime minister and very nearly a government over the emissions trading scheme and the mining tax.

    The government, which must bear some blame given its hamfisted design and announcement of the mining tax, has been humiliated enough by business.
    ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/cba-and-its-cronies-can-bank-on-the-wails-20101107-17itv.html

  33. Bit more coverage of the NSW government’s decision to open some coal mines itself so that is can sell the coal to the electricity generators (which it is trying to sell) at below market prices.

    The Greens are, rightly, making noises about the craziness of this in terms of the environment.

    Where are the Liberals making noises about the craziness of this in terms of misallocation of resources????

    Resource misallocation is one of the great public policy sins of the NSW government ($500m extra for a rail tunnel versus bridge at Lane Cove; $400m++ for a metro proposal that lasted less than a year). Brezhnevism.
    [THE state government’s decision to sell coal cheaply to its power generators sends the wrong signal about the need to move to cleaner energy sources and cut greenhouse gas emissions, say critics.

    The government is proceeding with plans to develop a new coalmine near Mudgee to sell low-priced coal to the government-run power generators.

    Earlier talks with the private sector to develop the Cobbora mine have fallen through. The government decided it will operate the mine itself.

    In confidential information provided to the bidders for the power assets, it said the government will supply coal from Cobbora for $1.47 a gigajoule, equal to about $32 a tonne, which is significantly less than present contract prices of about $44 a tonne.

    ”The whole thing smacks of desperation,” said Hugh Outhred, a professorial visiting fellow at the University of NSW. ”To sell coal below the market value shifts the subsidy from one point to another in the chain.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/energy-smart/cheap-coal-for-power-subsidises-polluters-20101107-17j1k.html

    Labor is bleeding votes to the left Greens. Liberals are lucky that there is not a “rightist” party that is focused on public policy rather than 3 word slogans, racism and economic hansonism

  34. G’morning PBers – back to rural serenity after a hectic time in the big smoke. Realised I really am a country bumpkin when it comes to driving in the City but that Lane Cove freeway into Sydney and then the ED to the other side is fantastic.

    [What the ALP probably needs a lot more is a bit of what the Coalition have going for them – supporters who get out there and say good things about the party. Loudly and often. You won’t find much hand-wringing over the behaviour of Abbott, Hockey etc etc. Liberal supporters just don’t seem to criticise their own – you’d be lucky to get them to acknowledge faults at all – and that creates a sense of unity where there isn’t one.]

    Aguire – just read a few comments from last night and I agree with you – Labor can stand constructive criticism from any of us but the pounding they got before the election from the likes of Latham, Richardson, Ellis, Marr, Iemma and a few others of their own side, was ridiculous. Then they had the asinine Gerry Harvey and John Singleton to contend with as well as Sydney shockjocks networked throughout NSW and Southern Qld.

    The Libs got none of that – they had good media and not even John Hewson who, through the years before the election, lambasted Abbott and rubbished a lot of what the Oppn was doing and saying. When it came to election time tho he changed his tune quite a bit and fell into line. The only dissenter was Malcolm Fraser but he got stuck into Labor as well.

    I admit to being a rusted on and proud of it because Labor has done a lot of good things for me and mine over the years – free Uni being one. The Gillard/Rudd Govts. are not bad because the Liberals and some in the media tell us so.

    Saw a bit of ABC24 in Sydney – now I know why you all think it is c..p. I found it pathetic and as much as I find fault with some on Sky it leaves the ABC for dead in content and presentation.

  35. Andrew Elder dishes it out to Paul Howes (in great detail and length). Well worth a read. Any demolishing of that boof Howes is.

    He makes the interesting point that Howes did not buy into the OHS debate between NSW govt and Gillard, and how Howes has not mentioned being more generous to asylum seekers since Gillard got elected.

    [Eyes without a face

    I always thought it was funny that a guy who’s never worked a day in his life got to be head of the Australian Workers’ Union, but not only is this so but he got to be a published author too]

    http://andrewelder.blogspot.com/

  36. blue-green:

    Yabsley’s timing is interesting. Loughnane (and Bitar) face the NPC this week to give their assessments of the election.

  37. Someone reads PB:

    [Tony Abbott’s missing moral core
    Neil Ormerod November 08, 2010

    Tony Abbott has been in public life for a long time. Some of us remember his forays into student politics in the 70s; his stint in journalism with the Bulletin; his public flirtation with the priesthood; and now his meteoric rise to leadership of the Liberal party and to a hair’s breadth from the prime ministership itself.

    It has not always been pretty, but it has always been entertaining – usually comic and at times tragic. During the whole episode of the supposed ‘love child’ with his university girl friend, he managed to maintain a quiet dignity, particularly in the face of the final revelation that the child he thought he had fathered was not actually his.

    But there is something I find deeply disturbing in the way he carries out his public role. Charming and disarming as he can be, I find myself wondering wherein lies his moral core. Not long after his election as leader of the Liberal Party, Abbott was trying to explain away statements from his past claiming that he sometimes makes ‘unreliable statements’ in the ‘heat of discussion.’

    At that time I thought that the way to get a handle on Tony Abbott was to realise that he was like a high school or university debater. He would say anything to win an argument, confident that there would be no consequences to his actions.

    Abbott is a natural debater, able to argue whatever position he feels will advantage him at the moment. And it’s not about logic or coherence, but about thumping the table the loudest. Further it does not seem to be about some moral vision that he holds to, providing a consistent pattern of thought.

    When the election was on a knife edge, Abbott was arguing that the party with the two-party preferred majority should form government, rather than the party that could form a majority on the floor of the House. Yet media commentators soon pointed out he had adopted the exact opposite position in the recent close elections in South Australia.

    For me the low point in his recent performances was his attack on the proposed military tribunal established to investigate possible war crimes by Australian troops in Afghanistan. This was an issue with some populist traction. An online petition attracted thousands of signatories. But the implication was that Australian troops should not be subject to the rule of law in their military engagements.

    He went so far as to imply that the Australian government should intervene in the process, in clear violation of the separation of powers between government and judiciary. He seemed to demonstrate no faith in the military tribunal to find these soldiers innocent, if in fact they were innocent. And if they were proven guilty he would have been seeking to protect war criminals.

    Although it was a popular stance, he was in effect attacking fundamental bases of our social and political system. I’m still amazed at how lightly he was treated by the media on this issue. Imagine the outcry if he had suggested that a priest accused of sexual abuse should not have that claim tested in court because we should support priests who are working for the good of the community! Certainly Australian troops are doing a great job in Afghanistan, and their morale is being affected by the proposed tribunal. But Abbott’s stance would license lawlessness.

    In the end this stance had less to do with the the case than with his need to reassert himself after his own dissembling in offering reasons why he would not accompany the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, on her visit to the troops in Afghanistan. When his ‘jet lag’ excuse was exposed and he came out flailing, hoping to land whatever blows he could on Gillard. The moral consequences of his stance were of lesser importance than his need to score some immediate political points.

    Much is made of Abbott’s Catholic faith, but it seems to me that the rule book he plays from has more in common with Machiavelli. Machiavelli famously concluded:

    Therefore it is necessary for a prince who wishes to maintain himself to learn how not to be good, and to use this knowledge and not use it according to the necessity of the case.

    In the end everything can be sacrificed to gain and maintain power.
    ]

    Neil Ormerod is Professor of Theology at Australian Catholic University

  41. Aguirre

    Yes, everyone should just drink the Kool-Aid for the benefit of the Party. Everyone should put the Party first.

    Oh, well if we’re going to go to extremes, then maybe you think we should just continue with the current approach – knifing the party before anyone else gets a chance. That one’s been uber-successful, don’t you think?

    You’ve seen how it works. As soon as the polls drift down to any degree, half the people around here soil their pants. That started up again in late 2009. Suddenly the focus shifted from “Do we like the policy” to “How can we arrest the slide??” I’m sure that attitude is quite reassuring to the ALP.

    If you like the policy, then like the policy. Don’t go about fretting because it’s not reflected in the polls. Otherwise you’re going to end up with a schizophrenic party, torn between pursuing good policy and chasing votes.

    It has nothing to do with Kool-Aid. There’s a lot to be said for being critical of the policy a party adopts. But there’s not a lot of good to be said for abandoning that support because you’re having kittens about the polls being 50-50.

  45. Confessions said:

    [Yep, as I suspected. Why should anyone take your view seriously? You are no better than Pegasus…..]
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/11/05/morgan-54-46-to-labor-3/comment-page-18/#comment-678012

    I understand why you would single me out. We have had a few exchanges in which I have challenged your unsubstantiated opinions. Unlike you, most of my posts contain links to evidence-based research or opinions from experts in the field. I understand that your inability to then refute my evidence with nothing but unsubstantiated opinion must be frustrating 😉

  46. [Unlike you, most of my posts contain links to evidence-based research or opinions from experts in the field.]

    Indeed. Like when you call people who criticise the Greens bigots.

  47. [BernardKeane | 13 seconds ago
    I know the Liberals outsourced our foreign policy to the Republicans when in government, now they want to outsource our climate policy?]

    Does anyone know what this relates to?

  48. confessions

    don’t know. I am guessing it means is that when Howard was in power, they just followed Bush and Co into their wars. Now it would appear that the Rethugs in the US are not going to support any type of ETS, and Abbott and Co. are following suit.

  49. Confessions,

    I assume it relates to Obama giving up on Cap and Trade because the Republicans have won the Congress.

    The Libs seem to think that because it has been dropped in the US, a carbon price should be dropped in Australia.

  50. [victoria
    Posted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 10:06 am | Permalink
    b-g

    It was a pretty spot on assessment by theologian, but today’s news cycle is dominated by the Clinton visit.
    ]

    What a shame.

Comments are closed.

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