Essential Research: 50-50

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has the two parties locked together on 50-50 for the third week running. There is also perfect stability on the primary vote, with the Coalition on 44 per cent, Labor on 41 per cent and the Greens on 8 per cent. A question on preferred Liberal leader has Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull essentially neck and neck at 23 per cent and 22 per cent respectively, which compares with 26 per cent and 20 per cent for a similar question in September. Public opinion on the banking industry is shown to be what elite opinion would consider unorthodox: 64 per cent of respondents believe they need more regulation against only 4 per cent for less and 20 per cent for “present regulation about right”, and 62 per cent would support the establishment of a government-owned bank against only 17 per cent opposed.

On the question of whether James Packer should be allowed to become a major shareholder in the Ten Network, 28 per cent said he should and 24 per cent said he shouldn’t – respondents were agreeably given a “don’t care” option, and 38 per cent of them put it to use. Enjoyably, 50 per cent agreed the government should not allow “one company to own the majority of Australia’s major newspapers”, after it was pointedly put to them that News Limited did just that. The ABC is found to be head and shoulders above other television channels on the question of trust, with Sky News enjoying a small but significant lead over the free-to-air commercial networks.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,405 thoughts on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. The reports of One Nation at the Northam protest opens a real opportunity for the government to tag the Liberals with them. Do the Liberals agree with some of the statements that have been made about slitting throats, bombing boats, and as a threat to children? And now the govt can legitimately use the line “the opposition AND One Nation believe…”

    One Nation, plus Tone being photographed with Toben has been the over-reach on this issue the govt were probably expecting would happen. Tone associating with holocasut deniers, and his colleagues attending protests alongside One Nation mob.

  2. So you don’t like my posts – poor diddums – At least I’m upfront in supporting the ALP, and not a weathervane like Glen is.

    Geeze, Frank! The guy says he is planning on voting independent and you pile a heap of excrement on his head! Look, I know some here think “loyalty to a party” is all, but that isn’t the way democracy works! Governments change because some people change their minds about such things. If you want them to vote for your side (or at least not against it) then you need to encourage such changes, not excoriate them for considering making them!

    Sometimes the responses here from some “left” supporters aren’t any better than Abbott et al’s interminable “bad Government, Stop the Boats” nonsense!

  3. Greensborough GrowlerPosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 5:25 pm | PermalinkI know it is a bit of a challenge for our lazy media, but I’d like to know how many were locals at the meetings, how many were bussed in. Who did the bussing in. Why certain pollies could speak and not others.
    There is a whole truck load of Horse shit surrounding this spontaneous outpouring of community sentiment.
    It’s about time the media strarted doing its job.

    When you have the State’s leading Shockjock Howard Sattler doing a live Broadcast from Northam on the Afternoon of the meeting – and who regularly gives a sympathetic ear to One Nations, you have part of your answer there.

  4. So frank if you wanted Glen to at least respect your point of view (if not agree with it) and both Rudd and mal brough agreed with you would you want brough or Rudd to talk to Glenn?

  5. Actually I think that there needs to be a place somewhere between responding to the feral media’s knee jerk hysteria at every turn and standing firm and playing hard ball. I am no media analyst but I think it is to do with setting your own terms for public debate and not backing down in the face of the predictable squeals of those with vested interests. It is about not blinking every time there is a criticism and that applies to the supporters as well as the leaders.

    So not turning up to every public meeting at the whim of the opposition but some well chosen words in high profile media spots to make the situation clear. Bowen has said it will go ahead. 700 (how many were media) out of 6000 residents does not make a majority.

    And those media laws need changing.

  6. Rod HagenPosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 5:29 pm | PermalinkSo you don’t like my posts – poor diddums – At least I’m upfront in supporting the ALP, and not a weathervane like Glen is.
    Geeze, Frank! The guy says he is planning on voting independent and you pile a heap of excrement on his head! Look, I know some here think “loyalty to a party” is all, but that isn’t the way democracy works! Governments change because some people change their minds about such things. If you want them to vote for your side (or at least not against it) then you need to encourage such changes, not excoriate them for considering making them!
    Sometimes the responses here from some “left” supporters aren’t any better than Abbott et al’s interminable “bad Government, Stop the Boats” nonsense!

    Glen is a Weathervane and you have fallen for his double standards.

    That is the political fact.

  7. WeWantPaulPosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 5:30 pm | PermalinkSo frank if you wanted Glen to at least respect your point of view (if not agree with it) and both Rudd and mal brough agreed with you would you want brough or Rudd to talk to Glenn?

    I thought the idea of the Meeting was for ALL sides to be represented, not those as selected by the Moderator.

    I think Gavan Troy has been taken advantage of by some of he rednecks.

    Pity that, he was a great local member for Mundaring, which of course morphed into Swan Hills.

  8. No doubt there. Whatever labor do or don’t do with you there is a BUT.

    It is entirely possible to be in broad support of a party and their aims (which, as a largely ALP voter I am) without having blind faith that everything they do is correct and without possibility of improvement.

    Labor’s overall political strategy over the past six months is not working. Scraping a qualified win over an Abbott Opposition is a cause for relief, not backslapping and self-congratulation. Failing to properly call the Opposition to public account for whipping up the nastier elements of Australian society is also, in my opinion (as you are so keen to point out) a mistake which will have substantial ramifications down the road.

    Are you aware of how intelligent and progressive people overseas see Australia and Australians? I can assure you that quiet good works for the benefit of ASs aren’t at the forefront of their minds.

  9. Pok

    I wonder if Labor has been bitch slapped so often by the media and the Libs that not only have they become used to it, perhaps they now even like it.

    Utter crap.

    The Govt. is now perceived as P… Weak by many of the Labor voters that I know.

    The current polls say support is still 50/50 ish as per the election. Is it the
    *Labor voters that {you} know* ?

    Abbott might be mad but his image is fast being seen as stronger than any that Labor projects.

    Isn’t Gillard still leading PPM ?

    Labor need to fight or I think that they are gone whenever the next election is held.

    Labor are getting on with implementing its election promises. That is the best
    way to *fight*. The libs are trying to stop them from doing anything.

  10. That is where we differ Frank, rather than a fair debate I assume the point of the meeting was to minimize the damage while doing what you could later call consultation with the ferals.

  11. Hughb,

    You should contact the Labor Party directly with your thoughts/ideas/suggestions. Perhaps the reason they’re not getting the message is because they’re not being given the message. Tell ’em to get the PR act together!

  12. georgePosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 5:34 pm | PermalinkGlen is a Weathervane and you have fallen for his double standards.
    That is the political fact.
    Not me Frank.

    Good to see, especially when it comes to Glen’s cheerleading of Brough, Bilson and Keenan.

    How can you conciously resign from a political party, but still support comments from their spokesmen which were the catalyst of you leaving said party.

  13. Anyone who is a true Liberal supporter should have only one proper moral response to the racist hate baiting that is now being propagated by their Party,that is a clear unequivocal condemnation. Trying to smear the Government, who are actually doing the decent thing, in a poisonous environment, created largely by the Liberal Party, is a pure putrid hypocrite.
    Those of you who are doing this on this blog should to deeply ashamed. Your Liberal Party is taking our country down a dangerous despicable path.

    Why are you not worried about where this current group of right wing zealots are taking your Liberal Party, do you really secretly support them but can’t bring yourselves to to admit it ? Is that really it ?

  14. 2316 GwenethPosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 5:42 pm | PermalinkGlen, have you contacted the Liberal party to tell them that they are in danger of losing your vote over the AS issue?

    I doubt that he has the gumption to do so, cos deep inside he still wants to vote for them – hence his support of Keenan’s Comments.

    If he was dinkum, he would be repuditaing those com ments, not supporting the,

    Like I said, he’s a Hard-wired Lib.

  15. hughb, youre spot on. The media bias aint going to change any time soon, yet Labor, despite a near defeat are incapable of working within it. For example, the opposition talk in sound bites, easy to edit and tailor made for the 10 second grab. So why not communicate that way? Why are they incapable of hammering the opposition, for example, the $11b black hole (have not heard this mentioned once) or not doing anything about banks in 11 years.

    And I’m sick of being told, just wait, we’re getting on with governing and it will come good. It wont. We saw with the stimulus and BER. Even a successful program can be spun negatively. The same will be done to the NBN and the ETS, that’s for sure.

    I will be submitting to the Labor review. I encourage all PBers to do so. I just dont get how we can see the problems yet the brains trust cant

  16. space Kiddette

    But for the most part, I am happy to be a ‘Crikey Nutjob’.

    I will have one of those t-shirts too. For nut jobs we did a damn good job of getting some disenfranchised people back their right to vote at the last Federal election.

  17. Frank, sorry but youre being annoying. Glen has made clear his disappointment with Morrison and Abbott, and is criticising Bowen’s lack of attendance. It may not be a valid criticism, but you shouldnt try to spin it otherwise

  18. Hmmmm I won’t publish it here but the contact number for the One Nation guy doesn’t look like a Northam number yet the media reports his throat slash comment as “locals” voicing anger over detention centre.

    Still, on the One Nation home page he is inciting rebelllion, so at least we know who Tony’s mates are. Holocaust deniers and rebel rousers.

  19. billyPosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 5:46 pm | PermalinkAnyone who is a true Liberal supporter should have only one proper moral response to the racist hate baiting that is now being propagated by their Party,that is a clear unequivocal condemnation. Trying to smear the Government, who are actually doing the decent thing, in a poisonous environment, created largely by the Liberal Party, is a pure putrid hypocrite.
    Those of you who are doing this on this blog should to deeply ashamed. Your Liberal Party is taking our country down a dangerous despicable path.
    Why are you not worried about where this current group of right wing zealots are taking your Liberal Party, do you really secretly support them but can’t bring yourselves to to admit it ? Is that really it ?

    Hear bloody Hear.

    Judi Moylan’s comments last night proves when push comes to shove on AS being in HER electorate, she rolls over to her Master Abbott.

  20. dave @ 2311 All true and I agree with you but I also agree with hughb that 50/50 is scary stuff. And watching the USA political scene doesn’t help. The anarchists are onto a formula that is getting results against all logic and we do need to find an antidote. I think it is a global phenomena too.

  21. hugh

    It is entirely possible to be in broad support of a party and their aims

    …but. The buts just keep coming

    Labor’s overall political strategy over the past six months is not working.

    Your opinion. If you are so sure of yourself – just contact labor and share your
    wisdom. All the contact details are on the internet.

    Are you aware of how intelligent and progressive people overseas see Australia and Australians?

    Is that the best you can put forward. If so don’t waste labors time in contacting them.

  22. AndrewPosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 5:48 pm | PermalinkFrank, sorry but youre being annoying. Glen has made clear his disappointment with Morrison and Abbott, and is criticising Bowen’s lack of attendance. It may not be a valid criticism, but you shouldnt try to spin it otherwise

    Another person who has fallen for Glen’s bulldust.

    Glen is being exposed for his double standards and he ain’t liking it one little bit.

  23. The issue of AS is, I think, at the very core of the current political environment. If labor wants a point of difference then here it is. People call for labor to stand for something then here is where it should start.

    Do you stand with the extreme right wing rabble led by Abbott or do you have a social conscience and stand for giving people a fair go? The difference is stark and will in the medium term flow into other issues.

    Labor will stand up on this issue. If Chris Bowen has been weak on this issue then I will take weak any day. Two months into a term Bowen has turned the issue around by his compassion and clear thinking. Julia giving him this job was not a fluke or a lucky choice. It was a well thought out inspired decision that will reap good things for labor. Not everyone will agree but more people will respect Julia and labor for this stand over time. I am sure labor has every intention to continue in this way.

    Forget about labor under Kevin. Done and dusted. This is a new government. Extreme right wing v social conscience. The choice is there. I know where I stand.

  24. Dave. I enjoy PB for the different views. I dont claim to possess great intelligence but I do have a gut and it tells me that Labor is stuffed. Just maybe my gut is right.

  25. Please contact labor direct and share with them what you think they need to do.

    What the OO have been doing re labor would never have happened without
    rupert agreeing or sanctioning it. Please tell labor how to overcome this.

    Well Dave, I don’t actually know how to overcome Rupert’s domination of the media. But then, I’m not paid to know how to deal with it, whereas Labor’s media strategists are and, frankly, are doing a truly apalling job of it. If my performance, as judged by results, in my chose profession was as bad or as unimaginative, I’d have been out on my ear a decade or two ago. If we accept that this is the best they can do, we might as well hand the keys of the country over to Murdoch now.

    Now, as you have so much better grasp of how things should be done than I have, perhaps you could explain to me and, I think, a few other posters, exactly how “more of the same” is going to break the current polling deadlock in time for the ALP to win the next election. Considering their record of achievement in their first term included saving the economy and they’re still only level pegging with a bunch of has-beens led by an NRL player, winning in 2013 is going to need a pretty spectacular rabbit from the hat unless something changes. The Libs aren’t going to change, Murdoch isn’t going to change. What, exactly, does that leave?

  26. 2330 PoKPosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 5:58 pm | PermalinkDave. I enjoy PB for the different views. I dont claim to possess great intelligence but I do have a gut and it tells me that Labor is stuffed. Just maybe my gut is right.

    No it is not stuffed – you are being defeatist- it will take at least 3 or more terms ofg a Labor Govt to turn around 11 Yers of Howardism.

    Patience young Grasshopper.

  27. doyley @2327 I really like your line of thinking and I think if that is going to happen it will happen because the grass roots (people like us) back them. I have to admit that the polls have shaken my confidence (a hard thing to do) and there have been some party decisions in the past that have worried me. Combet’s words the other day gave me hope that the suits have been ditched and the old Labor party is waking up. It is not about blind support for my party it is about supporting a party that shares my beliefs and I stand next to you. But the media climate is toxic and pervasive.

  28. Gweneth @ 2323

    labor has to maintain internal day to day discipline while it implements
    its election undertakings. If it does this the indies will stick with them
    and they should complete the full 3 years.

    Polls are secondary in that context, in my view. Possum & william (I think?)
    also say that its far too early into the new term to get too excited about
    polls as yet.

  29. Gweneth @2333,

    Exactly right. I agree with you about Greg Combet. I really think a line has been drawn.

    Regarding the polls and the MSM the old saying goes wtte “I would rather die on my feet than beg on my knees.”

  30. davePosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 6:04 pm | PermalinkGweneth @ 2323
    labor has to maintain internal day to day discipline while it implements
    its election undertakings. If it does this the indies will stick with them
    and they should complete the full 3 years.
    Polls are secondary in that context, in my view. Possum & william (I think?)
    also say that its far too early into the new term to get too excited about
    polls as yet.

    Exactly.

  31. Labor’s overall political strategy over the past six months is not working.

    Your opinion. If you are so sure of yourself – just contact labor and share your
    wisdom. All the contact details are on the internet.

    Six months at 50-50 with no sign of improvement on the horizon and an election win so narrow that if it turns sideways it disappears are not my opinion, they are verifiable fact.

    Against an Abbott led rabble results like that are practically a capital offence.

    If your attitude is typical of the party loyalists, I agree that there is no point my contacting them.

  32. PoK@2329

    Dave. I enjoy PB for the different views. I dont claim to possess great intelligence but I do have a gut and it tells me that Labor is stuffed. Just maybe my gut is right.

    Maybe your *Gut {feelings}* are way off too. We all have gut feelings, we all
    cannot be right, but are entitled to our views never the less.

    IF you feel particularly strong in your views, I would have thought the clear
    course would be to join the party of your choice and go for IT.

  33. hughbPosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 6:09 pm | PermalinkLabor’s overall political strategy over the past six months is not working.
    Your opinion. If you are so sure of yourself – just contact labor and share your
    wisdom. All the contact details are on the internet.
    Six months at 50-50 with no sign of improvement on the horizon and an election win so narrow that if it turns sideways it disappears are not my opinion, they are verifiable fact.
    Against an Abbott led rabble results like that are practically a capital offence.
    If your attitude is typical of the party loyalists, I agree that there is no point my contacting them.

    Umm, What 6 months of 50-50 ?

    Those figures came in the last week of the Election Campaign and have remained for the 2 months since the poll .

    At least get your facts correct.

  34. So labor is stuffed because it s allowing AS in to australia to settle in areas that belong to the fed, gov, and then helping them to make the transition,
    Well if the thats case the country has alwasy been stuffed to use your word s of others.
    We have had trouble for ever no matter what country people come from from the early days of the chinese till now.
    stuffed and we have three years to go to an election
    Really.

    gees i am so fed up with the negative comments on this site, Julia knows what she is doing if you all the negative people think they can do a better job stand as independent.

    They are formulating policy its been 8 weeks not 8 months 8 weeks, any one thinking would know these are very difficult policies that where not touched for years because the liberals where scared it seemed that way, to scared to rock any boats ( excuse the pun) because they did not want to lose votes thats why the country stood still for years with nothing done.

    you know whats going with the water AS, is a work in progress and so will climate change carbon price .

    IT not a little decision you know like ah dare i say renovating the prime minsters office and deciding on the wall paper. This is serious stuff labor are doing to bring the country back from the brink of nothing having been done about the hard issues.

  35. yes dave, exactly what we were told when Rudd’s polls dived, when Gillard’s early poll improvement was lost. Just wait. All will be well. Bull butter

  36. Labor lost the moral authority on AS when Beazely supported Tampa, because internal polling told Labor they would lose many seats because of it. They have now had 3 years to directly challenge the myths and prejudice, but have continued to tough on AS line for fear of the polls. Very disappointing

  37. AndrewPosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 6:13 pm | Permalinkyes dave, exactly what we were told when Rudd’s polls dived, when Gillard’s early poll improvement was lost. Just wait. All will be well. Bull butter

    And if we HAD remained with Rudd there would be only ONE ALP MHR in WA.

    And an Abbott govt.

    Political FACT.

  38. labor has to maintain internal day to day discipline while it implements
    its election undertakings. If it does this the indies will stick with them
    and they should complete the full 3 years.

    Fantastic. Now, about how Labor are going to win in 2013………..

  39. Paul Austin from The Age and some state political journalist from the Herald Sun were asked by Mitchell which party they thought would win. Both said Labor by about 4 or 5 seats.

  40. As I am not a armchair critic (more an armchair activist :)), I have just emailed this to Chris Bowen.

    Dear Mr Bowen

    I would like to express my support for your stance on the new detention centres. I am a West Australian voter and am appalled by the reaction of my fellow West Australians at Northam and I hope that it doesn’t represent the views of the majority. If it does then it is time those views were challenged. Stay strong on this issue. May I suggest that the experience of the towns of Katanning and Albany with Afghan refugees could be a point that could be raised with the Northam residents. I visited the Katanning township recently and was very impressed by the unity of a town with such diversity.

    Yours sincerely….

  41. Hughb, MSM bias or not, to almost lose to a no-policy, talentless rabble led by Tony Abbott after saving the economy from recession should have been enough to wake Labor up. Apparently not.

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