Essential Research: 50-50

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has the two parties locked together on 50-50 for the third week running. There is also perfect stability on the primary vote, with the Coalition on 44 per cent, Labor on 41 per cent and the Greens on 8 per cent. A question on preferred Liberal leader has Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull essentially neck and neck at 23 per cent and 22 per cent respectively, which compares with 26 per cent and 20 per cent for a similar question in September. Public opinion on the banking industry is shown to be what elite opinion would consider unorthodox: 64 per cent of respondents believe they need more regulation against only 4 per cent for less and 20 per cent for “present regulation about right”, and 62 per cent would support the establishment of a government-owned bank against only 17 per cent opposed.

On the question of whether James Packer should be allowed to become a major shareholder in the Ten Network, 28 per cent said he should and 24 per cent said he shouldn’t – respondents were agreeably given a “don’t care” option, and 38 per cent of them put it to use. Enjoyably, 50 per cent agreed the government should not allow “one company to own the majority of Australia’s major newspapers”, after it was pointedly put to them that News Limited did just that. The ABC is found to be head and shoulders above other television channels on the question of trust, with Sky News enjoying a small but significant lead over the free-to-air commercial networks.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,405 thoughts on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. Bloody hell Glen. Is that all you racist sympathisers have? Tough talk?? Labor’s gutless Labor’s gutless. It’s not a schoolyard fight mate. This about the lives of vulnerable and desperate people. Grow up.

  2. 2245 GlenPosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 4:37 pm | PermalinkKeenan is pointing out the obvious fact that Bowen is gutless. It wouldnt take much for him to come down there and actually let them know about the governments intentions. For someone whom I thought had gravitas it smacks of being gutless if you ask me the same response from the Gillard Govt for the MDB.

    Umm, he had OTHER Commitments.

    And your defence of this clown Keenan proves once and for all that you are a Liberal.

    Stop pretending otherwise.

  3. Both Howard and Pauline must be spinning in their respective lounges at the sucess of the libs rent a crowd and the detention centre issues.

  4. Dong

    The issue of church leaders and others speaking up is not a question of their silence but one of being heard.

    I bet if Cardinal Pell called a presser on it, he would be no later than item #2 on the news bulletin.

    Tony Abbott’s confessor condemns asylum seeker treatment as “unworthy, unaustralian and unchristian

  5. middle manPosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 4:41 pm | PermalinkBloody hell Glen. Is that all you racist sympathisers have? Tough talk?? Labor’s gutless Labor’s gutless. It’s not a schoolyard fight mate. This about the lives of vulnerable and desperate people. Grow up

    And he has the gall to say thisd after spending time volunteering to help teach these same Aslym Seekers.

    I reckon it was to make his CV look good, rather than for any moral reason.

  6. I vote Liberal but I am not a member of the Liberals nor do I support every policy they have. Please try to understand this distinction Mr Calabrese.

    I am considering voting Independent in the State Election I’ll have you know Frank!

  7. GlenPosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 4:44 pm | PermalinkI vote Liberal but I am not a member of the Liberals nor do I support every policy they have. Please try to understand this distinction Mr Calabrese.
    I am considering voting Independent in the State Election I’ll have you know Frank!

    Rubbish and you know it – Stop predenting to be something you clearly aren’t.

    More like a Liberal LEANING Independent.

    Once a Liberal – ALWAYS a LIberal.

  8. And he has the gall to say thisd after spending time volunteering to help teach these same Aslym Seekers.

    Frank you’re entitled to your own view but you dont do what I did purely for what it may or may not look like on your CV trust me you have no clue!

    Have you heard me support any of the racist rubbish coming out of those town hall meetings Frank?

    I deplore such comments, none of these people have a clue what asylum seekers are actually like or what goes on inside such a facility. It is a shame the Libs and Abbott are talking about Postcards and other such crap it’s not helping. That being said the Government arent easing public anger or trying to make the situation better.

  9. When the abc was set up was it a gov organization has it alwasy been a corporation apart from the gov.

    there is no way sadly it can be put in to gov, hands because then of course Bias would be what each gov in turn would say,

    but a new way of electing board member s must be found

    I believe the Scottish Senator is it Campbell is the senator who will be looking at their performance in questions at senate committees.

    May be time to write to him and demand a new way of finding board members,

    Also the Managing Director position should be advertised even if he is reappointed but like all public service positions it should be advertised gazetted as we use to say,.

    why do they the board have to be well know people, why not ordinary people, from community groups.
    the abc must be saved, i wrote to the friends of the abc and did not get a reply,
    i expect they may be of an older generation.

  10. I have found this government site very useful. There is also a very informative map of detention centre sites as well as many questions answered. Perhaps we need to get this sort of information out through the social network sites.

     http://www.immi.gov.au/managing-australias-borders/detention/facilities/ 

    While I agree with much of what you say hughb I also think that the monopoly nature of Oz news is a tough barrier. OzPol Tragic also had some good analysis similar to yours. I think that we need to give steel to their arm and make sure that we openly support them when they do speak out. Chris Bowen is doing this now. We need to contact him and back him. The strength of the fringe groups like Tea Party is the posters and yelling and that’s where they get their momentum. The media feeds off the light and sound shows. However, it does backfire – I think that the Greens lost as many as they won in the days of chain sawing unwashed hippies to trees.

    I think:
    1. We need to change the media laws. That opportunity is coming next July – we need to be making sure by constant communication that there is strong support for the pollies that take that tough line.
    2. We need to be challenging these pollies directly. Do you remember the contact with the Libs about how they spoke about Julia re back alley? Well have you heard anything like it since? It works if enough do it and do it intelligently. They reckon about 25 original communications (not form letters) will make a pollie stop and think especially if they are in the electorate.
    3. We need to do this with Labor, Coalition and Green.

  11. GlenPosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 4:47 pm | PermalinkAnd he has the gall to say thisd after spending time volunteering to help teach these same Aslym Seekers.
    Frank you’re entitled to your own view but you dont do what I did purely for what it may or may not look like on your CV trust me you have no clue!
    Have you heard me support any of the racist rubbish coming out of those town hall meetings Frank?
    I deplore such comments, none of these people have a clue what asylum seekers are actually like or what goes on inside such a facility. It is a shame the Libs and Abbott are talking about Postcards and other such crap it’s not helping. That being said the Government arent easing public anger or trying to make the situation better.

    Spare me the Bullshit – you supported Keenans Comments, and thus it makes you a Hypocrite.

  12. Good to see labor holding its ground on AS issue. Julia said she will not play the MSM “trying to be popular” game and I think this is the start of it. It may seem slow and painful but a line has to be drawn.

    Anyway the property is Commonwealth owned so who cares what people say. Once money starts to flow into the community they will not care.

    Government has to lead not follow. Wasn’t that the problem with Kevin ?

  13. I support the idea that Ministers actually go and help out in the consultation Frank what’s wrong with that?

    I can understand why Bowen doesnt want to go out to Northam but hey it’s his choice. I thought he’d be better than Evans but I was wrong!

  14. Someone linked RR engines to the F-35. To get half way decent performance its single engine it will operate at much higher temperatures and pressure ratios than current military engines (the hotter the combustion the more efficient the engine). However, the higher the temps the lower the reliability.

    Who wants to fly a fighter with an highly stressed single engine on a bombing mission across thousands of kilometres of ocean, using near full power around the target and then running hard from the angry defenders back over the same thousands of kilometres of ocean?

  15. doyley,

    I don’t think leadership is the problem. Bowen has initiated the opening of the centres which is wholly more acceptable than what has occurred before.

    I think the followship are having problems getting with the program.

  16. Frank the point of the meeting was to let the scum vent their stupidity not to try and educate them (which would be pointless) Troy did the right thing not letting steerle speak but the wrong thing when he backflipped and let the media stay. He should have said something like ‘if you want to posture for the media go outside and do it – if you want to discuss real issues you don’t need the media. But then if he was advised by councillors in my experience courage isn’t there main suit.

  17. 2268 GlenPosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 4:53 pm | PermalinkI support the idea that Ministers actually go and help out in the consultation Frank what’s wrong with that?
    I can understand why Bowen doesnt want to go out to Northam but hey it’s his choice. I thought he’d be better than Evans but I was wrong!

    Gees you ARE thick – There was a Reason why Bowen couldn’t attend – He had OTHER Commitments elsewhere.

    Get that through your Liberal addled Brain and stop relying on Liberal Talking Points – your faux outrage at the Libs fools nobody.

  18. glen

    I can understand why Bowen doesnt want to go out to Northam but hey it’s his choice. I thought he’d be better than Evans but I was wrong!

    Nice lib talking points there glen. It really means throw petrol on the fire.
    As per abbott & lib‘s standard operating procedures.

    I never thought you would stoop so low. Very very disappointing.

  19. WeWantPaulPosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 4:59 pm | PermalinkFrank the point of the meeting was to let the scum vent their stupidity not to try and educate them (which would be pointless) Troy did the right thing not letting steerle speak but the wrong thing when he backflipped and let the media stay. He should have said something like ‘if you want to posture for the media go outside and do it – if you want to discuss real issues you don’t need the media. But then if he was advised by councillors in my experience courage isn’t there main suit.

    But why did he let Brendon Grylls speak – it’s either all pollies, or none.

  20. Most of your argument today
    is about putting the boot into labor, which I think is wrong headed.

    Well, oddly enough, I’m not going to give them a pat on the head and a Tim-Tam for underperforming so woefully against the most disfunctional opposition in recent history that I almost woke up to an Abbott government on August 22nd. If Labor do not start taking on the Opposition more aggressively very soon, they will lose in 2013. No ifs, no buts.

    As for the issue at hand, like I said, I’m aware of what Labor are doing for ASs. I see that as a separate issue from their handling of the current hatefest. Sorry, but when you disturb a pile of cockroaches under your kitchen cupboard, you’re supposed to smash them with a brick, not offer them your butter dish with the lid off to address their “legitimate concerns”.

  21. By the way how do we know that the locals overall are opposed to this issue ? All we hear and read are MSM reports of what one or two people have said and video of people holding banners and complaining.

    Tell me how many of these people live in the area and i might then look at the situation more closely. Until that time it is nothing but speculation.

    Regarding consultation. What was the meeting last night ? What was the promise to set up a community liasion group to interact with the department ?

    The government made a decision to place these people on Commonwealth land. They made a promise to talk to people, to answer questions and try to sort out any concerns. That sounds like consultation to me.

    The same process has been undertaken in Adelaide, Weipa and in the south of WA. Who cares what the MSM complains about. just stick to what you are doing and do it.

    Cheris Bowen is going to these sites and talking to people. He is not out for the quick media grab that Abbott and the rest of his dogs are after. Tony Burke is quitely going about his business as well not trying to grab the limelight and thirty second tv grap like Abbott and the rest of his dogs are doing.

    It really is worth considering which approach country people would appreciate more.

  22. davePosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 5:00 pm | Permalinkglen
    I can understand why Bowen doesnt want to go out to Northam but hey it’s his choice. I thought he’d be better than Evans but I was wrong!
    Nice lib talking points there glen. It really means throw petrol on the fire.
    As per abbott & lib’s standard operating procedures.
    I never thought you would stoop so low. Very very disappointing.

    And people think Glen has improved with age – Bulldust.

    Once a Lib, always a lib- and I really do question his motives in volunteering with the Aslylum Seekers – I reckon it’s to gather inside intelligence to help the libs vilify them even more.

  23. Bilbo,

    Hi guys, been a bit of a roller coaster ride this afternoon. But I have to say the one of note is Miranda Devine’s “Crikey nutjob” quote.

    Can we have t-shirts with this quote printed on it?

  24. Glen@2274

    Dave so I am unable to be disappointed in Bowen as I am in Morrison??? I dont understand your logic?

    The whole thrust of the libs is to inflame whatever labor do on AS. You did the same.

    Shame on you. You know better.

  25. My say:

    I believe the Scottish Senator is it Campbell is the senator who will be looking at their {ABC’s} performance in questions at senate committees.

    May be time to write to him and demand a new way of finding board members,

    Doug Campbell? Where did you hear this please?

  26. hugh

    Well, oddly enough, I’m not going to give {labor} a pat on the head and a Tim-Tam.

    …I’m aware of what Labor are doing for AS. I see that as a separate issue from their handling of the current hatefest

    No doubt there. Whatever labor do or don’t do with you there is a BUT.

  27. Glen@2260

    Have you heard me support any of the racist rubbish coming out of those town hall meetings Frank?

    Ignore Frank, Glen. If the situation was reversed and Labor was stirring the racial pot he would be right behind the party. He always is. AFAIK, he has never criticised Labor for any of its policy failings. Just those of us that have.

    His is the only name on my filter list. Which is a pity because he does also post useful stuff. But there is a limit to the abuse one is prepared to tolerate.

  28. Well if that is your ‘rule’ Frank there isn’t much point going on. But I’ll slam my head against the wall for fun. Grylls talking makes sense because he comes from the same area as the mob in a broad sense. Steele was the enemy no point inciting the incited. Not that grylls was more effective than steele would have been but it was worth a punt.

  29. Doyley

    Regarding consultation. What was the meeting last night ? What was the promise to set up a community liasion group to interact with the department ?

    Yep. A bit like the reaction to *consultation* at the first few MDB meetings.

    It all got a feel to me of the tea parties – oppose everything, listen to nothing
    and just whinge their guts out.

  30. I also think that the monopoly nature of Oz news is a tough barrier.

    I agree but I don’t think it’s an insurmountable one. I’m not a media expert or an expert in public psychology but surely there are people within the ALP and the broader left in general who are and are capable of thinking outside the square to get messages across to a broad audience regardless of media bias.

    I think:
    1. We need to change the media laws. That opportunity is coming next July – we need to be making sure by constant communication that there is strong support for the pollies that take that tough line.
    2. We need to be challenging these pollies directly. Do you remember the contact with the Libs about how they spoke about Julia re back alley? Well have you heard anything like it since? It works if enough do it and do it intelligently. They reckon about 25 original communications (not form letters) will make a pollie stop and think especially if they are in the electorate.
    3. We need to do this with Labor, Coalition and Green.

    Agreed on all points.

  31. 2285 morewestPosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 5:15 pm | PermalinkGlen@2260
    Have you heard me support any of the racist rubbish coming out of those town hall meetings Frank?
    Ignore Frank, Glen. If the situation was reversed and Labor was stirring the racial pot he would be right behind the party. He always is. AFAIK, he has never criticised Labor for any of its policy failings. Just those of us that have.
    His is the only name on my filter list. Which is a pity because he does also post useful stuff. But there is a limit to the abuse one is prepared to tolerate.

    At least I’m not a Hypocrite by defending as Racist political party while going and working as a “Volunteer” to teach Aslyum Seekers.

    So you don’t like my posts – poor diddums – At least I’m upfront in supporting the ALP, and not a weathervane like Glen is.

  32. WeWantPaulPosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 5:17 pm | PermalinkWell if that is your ‘rule’ Frank there isn’t much point going on. But I’ll slam my head against the wall for fun. Grylls talking makes sense because he comes from the same area as the mob in a broad sense. Steele was the enemy no point inciting the incited. Not that grylls was more effective than steele would have been but it was worth a punt.

    Then why allow one pollie and not any others.

    It’s either allow all or none.

  33. victoria,

    I know. Can you believe it, maybe my comment on her article sent her over the edge – I would like to think so. But for the most part, I am happy to be a ‘Crikey Nutjob’. I would rather deal with the realities, however ugly, than listen to her propaganda, anyday.

  34. Frank CalabresePosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 5:21 pm | PermalinkWeWantPaulPosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 5:17 pm | PermalinkWell if that is your ‘rule’ Frank there isn’t much point going on. But I’ll slam my head against the wall for fun. Grylls talking makes sense because he comes from the same area as the mob in a broad sense. Steele was the enemy no point inciting the incited. Not that grylls was more effective than steele would have been but it was worth a punt.
    Then why allow one pollie and not any others.
    It’s either allow all or none.

    Oh and it should be noted that Grylls has come out in FAVOUR of the Detention Centre, so he would be singing from the same hymn sheet as Sterle.

  35. I know it is a bit of a challenge for our lazy media, but I’d like to know how many were locals at the meetings, how many were bussed in. Who did the bussing in. Why certain pollies could speak and not others.

    There is a whole truck load of Horse shit surrounding this spontaneous outpouring of community sentiment.

    It’s about time the media strarted doing its job.

  36. hugh

    I also think that the monopoly nature of Oz news is a tough barrier.

    I agree but I don’t think it’s an insurmountable one. I’m not a media expert or an expert in public psychology but surely there are people within the ALP and the broader left in general who are and are capable of thinking outside the square to get messages across to a broad audience regardless of media bias.

    Please contact labor direct and share with them what you think they need to do.

    What the OO have been doing re labor would never have happened without
    rupert agreeing or sanctioning it. Please tell labor how to overcome this.

  37. I wonder if Labor has been bitch slapped so often by the media and the Libs that not only have they become used to it, perhaps they now even like it. The Govt. is now perceived as P… Weak by many of the Labor voters that I know. Abbott might be mad but his image is fast being seen as stronger than any that Labor projects. Labor need to fight or I think that they are gone whenever the next election is held.

  38. GG

    There is a whole truck load of Horse shit surrounding this spontaneous outpouring of community sentiment.

    Especially as I heard a local counciller (shire president???) the other day on ABC Radio and he was basically really quite positive about it

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