Essential Research: 50-50

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has the two parties locked together on 50-50 for the third week running. There is also perfect stability on the primary vote, with the Coalition on 44 per cent, Labor on 41 per cent and the Greens on 8 per cent. A question on preferred Liberal leader has Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull essentially neck and neck at 23 per cent and 22 per cent respectively, which compares with 26 per cent and 20 per cent for a similar question in September. Public opinion on the banking industry is shown to be what elite opinion would consider unorthodox: 64 per cent of respondents believe they need more regulation against only 4 per cent for less and 20 per cent for “present regulation about right”, and 62 per cent would support the establishment of a government-owned bank against only 17 per cent opposed.

On the question of whether James Packer should be allowed to become a major shareholder in the Ten Network, 28 per cent said he should and 24 per cent said he shouldn’t – respondents were agreeably given a “don’t care” option, and 38 per cent of them put it to use. Enjoyably, 50 per cent agreed the government should not allow “one company to own the majority of Australia’s major newspapers”, after it was pointedly put to them that News Limited did just that. The ABC is found to be head and shoulders above other television channels on the question of trust, with Sky News enjoying a small but significant lead over the free-to-air commercial networks.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,405 thoughts on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. Pressure has been applied to 15 y/olds about their career paths for years & done so with teenagers having no grasp of what some professions entail.
    Career guidance is good but I’m not sure we should create a whole public service network to deal with it.

  2. KarenMMiddleton Very quiet news day in Canberra today. Unsettling…

    b_g – Doesn’t that just say it all about the Press Gallery mindset! I’m actually agreeing with your irony.

  3. my say at 37

    i would feel insulted i was even ask

    true enough 🙂

    My question, though, was more how is it mathematically possible??

  4. BH,

    Should we send Ms. Middleton some investigative journalism activities she could be undertaking in her spare time?

  5. Teachers do teaching and parents do parenting. Its quite a simple demarcation of duties.

    I don’t think the line is as sharp as you make out.

  6. I don’t think the line is as sharp as you make out.

    The line should be much sharper than it currently is. Govt should not seek to blur it further without a substantial reason.

  7. Gary, My Say,

    Too much teaching time spent not teaching. Too many parents not parenting. No wonder so many kids fall through the cracks.

  8. For what Crikey’s Tips and Rumours section is worth:

    A Melbourne Cup-like field has emerged for the leadership and deputy leadership of the South Australian ALP. Premier-in-waiting (or So He Thinks) is education minister and poster boy for the Left in SA, Jay Weatherill. The problem is, the dominant Senator Don Farrell-led Right faction of the party has handicapped Weatherill at top weight, i.e. they won’t have him.

    When Premier Mike Rann steps away in 12-18 months’ time, as most pundits are predicting, Labor hard-heads are hoping some form of ‘dream ticket’ will emerge, with Kevin Foley as premier and speedy Tom Koutsantonis (both from the Right) as his deputy. However, in the eyes of voters that would be akin to digging up Phar Lap and running him in the 2010 Melbourne Cup.

    More palatable to punters would be a Left-Right ticket. Could it be promising mare Grace Portolesi from the Left and that serviceable colt John Rau? Who knows? One thing is certain, this won’t be the race that stops the nation.

  9. On the careers plan issue my first instinct is to question it too.

    One of the biggest mistakes I made was being forced into subject choices at 15 which shut down several avenues I have wanted to pursue later.

    My advice to my own sons has been keep your studies as broad as possible, even at university.

    Happy to reserve judgment until more details are available, but put every skerrick of funding into actual teaching is my preference.

  10. The line should be much sharper than it currently is. Govt should not seek to blur it further without a substantial reason.

    For example?

  11. Where has the line been crossed?

    I suggest you talk to a teacher.

    I would suggest that once again you are talking from an ideological position rather than one of knowledge.

  12. Ummmm….

    I suggest you talk to a teacher.

    Ah, the mythical blurring of responsibilities. This argument has been around forever.

  13. Public opinion on the banking industry is shown to be what elite opinion would consider unorthodox: 64 per cent of respondents believe they need more regulation against only 4 per cent for less and 20 per cent for “present regulation about right

    Hope this’ll be enough to wake up the ALP & make them realise that they’re on the wrong-side of public opinion on this issue.

  14. Should we send Ms. Middleton some investigative journalism activities she could be undertaking in her spare time?

    SK – a good one for her tonight would be the stoush in the Senate this morning re the BER with that woefully inadequate Brett Mason using selective hearing.

    It seems he didn’t really want to hear anything positive Brad Orgill had to say.

    Middleton could start by reading and absorbing the positives as much as she does the negatives. Or would that be too unsettling?!!

    \
    Gos – I agree with you. Unless the kids are absolutely committed to a certain path they should be allowed to keep all options open. The one thing I really don’t like is kids going from school to teaching courses to schools. I think that teachers should have at least a year working somewhere else. No disrespect to those of you have been or are teachers.

  15. Too much teaching time spent not teaching. Too many parents not parenting. No wonder so many kids fall through the cracks.

    I would like to amend that, although i do agree with it.
    Too much teaching time spent not teaching because oo many parents are not parenting. No wonder so many kids fall through the cracks.

  16. Gary,

    It is hardly an ideological position and I am hardly an ideologue.

    Talk to teachers; they spend a large proportion of their time parenting a handful of children rather than teaching a class.

    The curriculum is required to include all aspects of life rather a traditional education, including things previously the domain of parents and the community.

    The funniest thing to talk to teachers about is parent-teacher night. There are some parents who don’t even know that they should help their older children with their homework or read books to the young children, there are other parents who have no idea their children have behaviour issue and need treatment, and then there are the parents who blame the teachers for their children behaiving that way.

    If Brumby wanted to put more money into school counsellors it would make sense. But a standardised career assessment is busy work for bureacrats.

  17. Hope this’ll be enough to wake up the ALP & make them realise that they’re on the wrong-side of public opinion on this issue.

    Wonder how many of those polled understand more than the headline & what it could mean for them if banks were regulated.

  18. Laocoon
    Posted Monday, November 1, 2010 at 2:35 pm | Permalink
    my say at 37

    i would feel insulted i was even ask

    true enough

    My question, though, was more how is it mathematically possible??

    i will leave the maths to you

    not my forte, i am a visualizer

  19. my say

    I agree. Part of it is just teaching them to be responsible, then letting them get experience. As you say, teachers have enough to worry about already. They are already def acto social workers for all the problems where politicians don’t want to tell voters: “you are their parents, deal with them”. That is a criticism of all parties, not aimed at Brumby per se.

    A good education helps too. As Dee implied, just teaching the students the lingo of the financial world would be a great help understanding it, when they would be less vulnerable.

  20. If Brumby wanted to put more money into school counsellors it would make sense. But a standardised career assessment is busy work for bureacrats.

    Again I will ask. Do you know what the government had in mind. Do you know the detail?

  21. The funniest thing to talk to teachers about is parent-teacher night. There are some parents who don’t even know that they should help their older children with their homework or read books to the young children, there are other parents who have no idea their children have behaviour issue and need treatment, and then there are the parents who blame the teachers for their children behaiving that way.

    This is going off the jelly beam.
    What the hell has behaviour problems & neglectful parents got to do with career advice.
    OTH, the volume of neglect in childrens studies can only reinforce career advisory service. There will always be better things to spend money on.
    Just ask a teacher! 😉

  22. Hope this’ll be enough to wake up the ALP & make them realise that they’re on the wrong-side of public opinion on this issue.

    vik – if reregulation means less competition then I don’t want a bar of it.

    Swannie is looking at how he can introduce more competition which can then force the existing Banks to react to their customers wants. Should that really be done by reregulation? Ask PJK – I bet he says that Hockey’s populism is mad. If the Coalition had won Govt. we would not have heard a word from Hockey about this.

    Hockey has had tip offs about what Swan is working on and is capitalising on it. Swan needs to point that out politically.

  23. Gary 69

    We agree on that issue 100%. Finland has one of the best education systems in the world despite having very few education policy officers. They mainly just let the teachers teach. Who’d have guessed – that works better than letting a bunch of people who have never set foot in a classroom dictate a curriculum!

  24. Wonder how many of those polled understand more than the headline & what it could mean for them if banks were regulated.

    that question if that is how it was ask is just to black and white.

    yes. in some area and not in others its a question you could never ever give a yes or no too.

    Thinks its time the pollsters stopped polling people about politics and thought of asking about for example what your favourite ice cream in summer

  25. Hockey has had tip offs about what Swan is working on and is capitalising on it. Swan needs to point that out politically.

    Swan has pointed this out on numerous occassions. 🙂

  26. Hockey has had tip offs about what Swan is working on and is capitalising on it. Swan needs to point that out politically.

    I thought exactly the same thing.

  27. So do you have lots of work experience programs in Vic.

    one young man said he wanted to be a plumber and very very good as we need plumbers but his marks where very high.
    apparently thats was about his parental expectation of the lad.
    After a talk to teachers and parents it was decided may be pharmacy or med.
    So sometimes parents dont realise they have a very bright child,
    so is a public servant with all the best intentions in a city office going to know for ex, what my Oh know about the lad.

  28. blue-green:

    To be fair, most commenters here were agape at Hockey’s original suggestion which seemed to be saying we should use parliament to force the banks to keep their interest rates in line with the Reserve Bank rates.

  29. We agree on that issue 100%. Finland has one of the best education systems in the world despite having very few education policy officers. They mainly just let the teachers teach. Who’d have guessed – that works better than letting a bunch of people who have never set foot in a classroom dictate a curriculum!

    What we need to know then is how do they get their parents parenting effectively and not leaving it up to the teachers.

  30. Hockey was not arguing for regulation on anything but interest rates for mortgagees and ignored the millions with super in banks who want more interest rates rises.

    The simplistic notion of ‘regulation” is what the Soviets and Chinese do.

  31. confessions
    Posted Monday, November 1, 2010 at 3:16 pm | Permalink
    blue-green:

    To be fair, most commenters here were agape at Hockey’s original suggestion which seemed to be saying we should use parliament to force the banks to keep their interest rates in line with the Reserve Bank rates.

    So was I; still am. But the notion that some for the big banks are using govt guarantees to play risky business in asia is not right.

  32. To be fair, most commenters here were agape at Hockey’s original suggestion which seemed to be saying we should use parliament to force the banks to keep their interest rates in line with the Reserve Bank rates.

    Correct. Can anyone tell me which of the 9 points will stop the banks from putting up interest rates alone?

  33. shepherdmarilyn
    Posted Monday, November 1, 2010 at 3:18 pm | Permalink
    Hockey was not arguing for regulation on anything but interest rates for mortgagees and ignored the millions with super in banks who want more interest rates rises.

    The simplistic notion of ‘regulation” is what the Soviets and Chinese do.
    88 blue_green

    why dont you email him that one, or ring and ask to speak to his media adviser.

    Now lindsay tanner may have said the above or similar, gosh we miss him

  34. Gary,

    I think Joe Hockey used the interest rates overreach as a trojan horse to be able to talk broader banking policy. Whether he tripped and fell into it or it was deliberate; its where we are now.

    And what are your suggestions on lightening the load on teachers from poor parenting? Genuinely interested.

  35. From the OO article cited above on Orgill’s evidence to the Senate committee:

    Senator Mason said it appeared there had been mismanagement and cost blowouts in the BER.

    “The public has made an assessment of this program and it isn’t favourable to the government,” he said.

    Oh, I see… the public has made its assessment, and despite Orgill stating that value for money had been pretty good, it’s the public that decides whether or not value for money was, in fact achieved. In his fit of sour grapes, Mason sounds rather peeved that the BER seems to have been a success, as judged by the man tasked specifically to determine that. But, but… the Australian said it was a “disaster”! The people reckon it was too! Who cares what the true situation really is?

    And who informs the public? Did they read the report, or did they just get their “debacle”, “catastrophe” and “shambles” ideas from you-know-which newspaper?

    Sadly, Orgill’s report could say that the BER delivered a gold Krugerrand into everyone’s pockets, improved the sex life of every parent and added 10 healthy years onto their lives (20 onto their childrens’), and the bogans would still whinge and complain. We’ve become the complaining nation. Once we get a whinge up we don’t bloody-well let go of it easily.

    Mason is right and he is wrong… for all the wrong reasons. Expect to see the full report “proving” that the BER was a waste of time and money, did more harm than good and left us dangling at the arse end of all the world’s economies. The OO will make sure of that.

  36. Gary

    What we need to know then is how do they get their parents parenting effectively and not leaving it up to the teachers.

    A good question; I don’t know teh answer here or in Finland. I would observe though that in Finland there is a high cultural value attached to education, teaching is a respected profession, and there seems to be bipartisan acceptance of the idea that politicians shouldn’t interfere in school management.

    So maybe they don’t solve other social problems any better than us. They just know that dumping them on schools doesn’t help.

  37. Freedom of information act laws have changed. Wonder if it includes taking a look at the Coalition dodgy black hole calculations.

  38. The point with Finland – often missed by our teaching profession – is that they pay teachers so well it is a very desirable career.

    Which means that if we introduced the Finnish system, a large number of those now teaching wouldn’t be.

    Mind you, that would be a very good thing.

    (I just find it ironic that so many teachers don’t understand that, when they’re advocating for the Finnish system).

  39. bg

    Swan has pointed this out on numerous occassions.

    Again, its hard to argue Joe Hockey is a dill and then in the same sentence say he stole my ideas.

    Simplistic!
    You are taking the soundbites that have since transpired. Not what was originally proposed by Sloppy which started all this boo-hah.

  40. no i cannot think of one of the 9 points lets alone that he even said it.

    now this is what i mean by polling. its to black and white.

    question. would you like to see the banks regulated, if this could mean less money around for lending or people on fixed income not having more in their accounts.

    may be the answer would be no.

    but if you say gee would you like the banks regulated. the quick answer i think would be yes.
    Because people think of money in their pocket. but then on the other hand what you could ask.
    would you like the banks regulated if the interest rates are going down. NO i think would be the answer to most money thinking people.

    so i thinks is just question you cannot put in a poll

  41. Zoomster

    Of course there can be improvements, but I think it is not the teachers fault. Its about building a culture of parents being equally responsible for their childrens learning.

    Perhaps more skilled teachers would accomplish that. I am at a loss.

  42. Dee, that has now come and gone. We now have a public wanting greater oversight oover the banks and the media interested in the issue. Hockey has his plan. Swan now needs to outline his or to say why nothing new is necessary.

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