Essential Research: 50-50

The latest Essential Research survey confirms the picture of last week’s Newspoll in showing a decline in Tony Abbott’s popularity, but essentially no change in voting intention. Labor has in fact lost its 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, but the primary vote figures are all but unchanged with the Coalition steady on 44 per cent, Labor down a point to 40 per cent and the Greens up one to 9 per cent. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is 39 per cent, down four points on when the question was last asked in the September 20 poll, while his disapproval is up seven points to 45 per cent. Julia Gillard on the other hand is steady on both approval (45 per cent) and disapproval (37 per cent), and her lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 47-35 to 49-33. Questions on expectations for the economy, personal financial situation and job security find respondents leaning towards optimism, while one on the Murray-Darling Basin has 36 per cent believing the government should “purchase water rights from irrigators willing to sell” rather than “leave existing water allocations in place” or “compulsorily buy water rights from irrigators and farmers” (17 per cent each).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,668 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. [It got just a little more shittier when you arrived.]

    There are Billions of poor people, 5+ Million Refugee’s.

    But the left think out of all those Billion, out of all those 5 Million Refugee’s the most deserving of the lot… the cream of the crop… are the ones who illegally seek the services of criminal gangs and people smugglers and deny everyone else the chance.

    These people are at the glory of the left. The real heroes of the left movement.

  2. [Come on, Ref! Red Card!]

    No way, Wilkie was crying tears for the troops the other day.

    Now he is attacking the opposition for wanting charges against 3 troops dropped.

    This guy is all over the shop. Do you seriously want us to believe someone can flip fliop that quickly and not be full of it?

  3. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Friday, October 22, 2010 at 1:48 pm | Permalink
    blue-green @3492
    Is that similar to our youngsters taking off into the world? Mine did and one has settled abroad permanently. ]

    Perhaps, but in an entirely different context. Central Asia (afghanistan, iran, pakistan etc) can be a unsafe place to live and hard place to get regular work. So people move- they have always moved. Afghanis have set up complex migration routes throughout the region where people move and money (remittances) can be moved with ease from region to region (despite no banks etc). So a side trip to Australia by a small percentage of the regular migrants is to be expected. I noted that almost all Afganis currently residing in the country have left and returned to the country at least once since the Communist invasion.

  4. [No way, Wilkie was crying tears for the troops the other day.

    Now he is attacking the opposition for wanting charges against 3 troops dropped]
    Not sure how those two things are linked GW?

  5. Who was it that came up with that list of new positions of the Liberals which are completely at odds with their philosophical approach? Things like govt intervention on climate policy, interest rates? I can’t remember if it was blue-green or Laocoon.

  6. The OO gave Abbott a going over yesterday. Today it is Hockey’s turn: ‘Hockey should stop investing in junk policy.’ The OO is hoist on its own petard here. It allowed Abbott to get away with rank populist crap during the election campaign. Now Hockey has got the idea. The Greens like it. The populist genie might be a bit difficult to get back into the bottle. The Big End of Town will not be amused.

    BTW, I sent an email to Hockey’s office asking for the policy development process and got the following reply:

    ‘Fillet of a fenny snake,
    In the cauldron boil and bake;
    Eye of newt and toe of frog,
    Wool of bat and tongue of dog,
    Adder’s fork and blind-worm’s sting,
    Lizard’s leg and howlet’s wing,
    For a charm of powerful trouble,
    Like a hell-broth boil and bubble.’

  7. [It seems the government have taken a day off from the media today.]
    That’s be most days for this Govt blue-green. They are never out there as they should be (despite some of the commentary of media forays I read here on PB!).

  8. BigBob @ 3427

    [I pretty much agree with your thoughts – except the Japanese were never going to attack the Bear, even when the Bear had it’s eyes firmly fixed on it’s European flank.

    Too many recent smackdowns had resulted in severe Ursuphobia in the army.

    Best to attack those weak willed imperialists in SE Asia.]

    Probably more about getting their hands on the oil in the Dutch possessions in Indonesia.

    US oil and commodity sanctions were having a severe effect in Japan by 1941, and the Japanese militarists were desperate to get out from under these restrictions and create what became known as the Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere – sounds innocuous, doesn’t it, but it ended up meaning death to millions of civilians and soldiers across the Asian region from 1941 to 1945.

  9. Nappin,

    In Chickenhawk world, any sign of questioning of the military is traitorous.

    Geewizz is just crudely following standard Republican tactics of the last decade.

    Attack the man, not the issue.

  10. Laocoon
    [Not only did Howard rip the funding out of the overseas broadcaster, but from memory he sold the network to a christian group.]

    [Gosh!? Bet that is really effective in Indonesia, Malaysia etc etc
    Did Rudd restore the situation?]

    Not as far as I know.
    Sorry so long in answering. Had lunch. Fell sleep. 🙂

  11. Now he is attacking the opposition for wanting charges against 3 troops dropped

    Wasn’t Wilkie an officer in the same battalion as the 3 accused? That would perhaps give pause to a person with a modicum of grey matter.

  12. Has Abbott lost control of the Liberals? Exhibits:

    (1) Somlyay
    (2) Slipper
    (3) Washer
    (4) Jo Gash
    (5) Turnbull
    (6) Johnston
    (7) Hockey.

  13. Lizzie – nice lunch!

    Boerwar – have you seen the editorial cartoon of the AFR today? Continuing the cooking theme, it has a porcine Hockey being cooked over a spit. A few piggy banks lining up waiting to slice a bit off. Swan, in behind Glen Stevens, speaks to Robb. ” Well, that’s one way of keeping the banks in line”

  14. No way, Wilkie was crying tears for the troops the other day.

    Now he is attacking the opposition for wanting charges against 3 troops dropped

    Not sure how those two things are linked GW?

    They are linked by an incorrect generalization leading to a false specific: “Wilkie cries tears only for troops. The soldiers under charge are troops. Therefore Wilkie should cry tears for the soldiers under charge.”

    And if he doesn’t he’s a hypocrite.

    GW seems incapable of conceiving that a person can cry tears for troops but still want justice to be done.

  15. Big Ship,

    Yep, Dutch East Indies oil and Malay rubber, plus a number of other exotic raw materials that could be obtained in the region.

    Unfortunately for the Japanese, the Phillipines stands between the Home Islands and those tempting targets. As relations with the US were poor anyway, they knew that even if they carefully avoided attacking US assets in a war with the Dutch and British, that the US would most probably intervene anyway.

    So, a surprise attack seemed like the best option.

  16. Confessions

    [In this parallel universe we have the Libs:
    -favoring a government intervention aproach to climate change over a market-based one
    -raising a levy on business to pay rich mothers to parent their children less
    -seeking to regulate the bank interest rates
    -intervening in a dispute between military command and soldiers in favor of the soldiers
    -not trusting the military command view of the level of force deployed in Afghanistan
    -seeking to intervene in the value of the dollar
    -seeking to reverse the independence of the reserve bank

    ]

    And you added something like slowing population growth

  17. Yes, it was blue-green:

    [In this parallel universe we have the Libs:
    -favoring a government intervention aproach to climate change over a market-based one
    -raising a levy on business to pay rich mothers to parent their children less
    -seeking to regulate the bank interest rates
    -intervening in a dispute between military command and soldiers in favor of the soldiers
    -not trusting the military command view of the level of force deployed in Afghanistan
    -seeking to intervene in the value of the dollar
    -seeking to reverse the independence of the reserve bank]

    Plus capping population growth.

  18. My favorite diversion from liberal values is;
    Raising taxes to keep rich mothers away from their children where the richer you are the greater the incentive not to parent your children yourself.

  19. [I pretty much agree with your thoughts – except the Japanese were never going to attack the Bear]

    it is also a misconception that Japan surrendered purely due to the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

    Japan was more afraid of the Communist Stalin Russian than the American. Russian declared war on Japan two days after Hiroshima and was moving to occupy the Kurils Islands north of Hokkaido. Then thought of Stalin Communist Russia was enough for the Japanese to surrender to the lesser of the the two evils.

  20. So is Tripodi going or not? Someone is certainly leaking to try and ensure he goes.

    [Senior Labor sources said the fact Mr Tripodi had not “gone to war” since the meeting led them to believe he would retire voluntarily – and was waiting for the appropriate moment to do so.

    “We’re not letting him stay. We have never [deceived] Joe about what Joe needs to do,” a senior Labor source said.]

  21. [Not sure how those two things are linked GW?]

    Well gee lets see.

    He’s crying for the troops who he claims he supports(and wants them withdrawn despite the families of the dead not wanting that).

    Then he wants te opposition minister for defence to be sacked for backing 3 troops who are charged with murder.

    So apparantly he only supports the troops when it suits his agenda, but then he flip flops and attacks the troops when it suits his Green…. oops I mean “Independent” agenda.

  22. met Mr. wilkie a few times over the years Wiz ( truthy) Mr Wilkie is a man of great
    integrity and lovely person to sit and chat to..

    I was fortunate enough to do that when he first came and made his home here

  23. In Chickenhawk world, any sign of questioning of the military is traitorous.

    Having a go at the CDF doesn’t sit too well with the Coalition’s “Best On National Defence” credentials.

    Still, a long as they get publicity from it – no serious journalist has said “Boo!” about it, really – they’ll continue to prosper among the slow thinkers and shock jock listeners.

    Labor really does need to step up to the plate on this and condemn the Coalition for undermining both military discipline and the military justice system. If the Coalition is prepared to trash most of the things they say they stand for – “a kinder gentler polity”, the “New Paradigm”, the military justice system and discipline and their oft-expressed adherence to market economics – then Labor needs to ping them for it, and harshly. The media either will not, or cannot.

  24. BigBob @ 3469

    [I think the irony is that you are very keen to make veiled allusions to cowardice when you haven’t volunteered to do squat yourself. A true chickenhawk.]

    Spot on – cut from the same cheap and tattered cloth as Downer, Howard, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz and Bush … war criminals to a man.

  25. Puff @ 3500

    When living in the US, we knew a couple of NZers who were careful not to let their govt know how much their grad stipends were, as they would have been (NZ equivalent of) HECS tax-taken on them.

  26. [Has Abbott lost control of the Liberals? ]

    BW, the Fibs are falling apart. Now it’s all out war:

    Abbott Vs Turnbull
    Robb Vs Hockey
    Howard Vs Costello
    Mesma Vs herself

    sit back and enjoy. 3 months, it will be Turnbull-Robb ticket

  27. [GW seems incapable of conceiving that a person can cry tears for troops but still want justice to be done.]

    And you seem incapable of conceiving someone like Wilkie is full of shit.

    He hasn’t even talked to the soilders families, he should cut back on the kleenex tissues and get on the bloody phone.

  28. So apparantly he only supports the troops when it suits his agenda…

    It’s easy to see how an agenda driven political stormtrooper could see it that way. GW just can’t see shades of grey at all. It’s all agenda, all the time for him.

    He has no concept that support for the troops can sit comfortably with support for the justice system that the troops agree voluntarily to abide by.

  29. b-g

    IMHO, Hockey has just made sure that he will never be Prime Minister. Some might have thought that the idea of a conscience vote on the CPBR was a once-in-a-lifetime brain snap. Regulating interest rates is the clincher.

    Your notion that Hockey may not sit at the next election might come true. OTOH, what would he do if forced to work for a living?

  30. this The Age poll doesn’t let you nominate both ‘very nasty’ and ‘excellent’ at the same time. Pity.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/howards-costello-blast-unfair-says-minchin-20101022-16ww2.html#poll

    How I love to see bitter and twisted sociopathic (big fans of Thatcher’s “There is no Society”) has-beens fight it out. May the Australian people wake up to what a nasty bunch the fibs are are – problem is these two look like ‘wets’ compared to the extremists moving up the ranks now. I await Costello’s vindictive response – I really hope he reveals something damaging like proof of Howard’s involvement in the AWB-Iraq bribes; conspiracy in the training of a non-union waterworking work-force in Dubai; prior knowledge that there were no WMD; numerous lies to parliament; knowledge of SEIV X; etc, etc. please please please

  31. And you seem incapable of conceiving someone like Wilkie is full of shit.

    Can’t argu with that.

    By “can’t argue” I mean: that statement is so stupid and ignorant that it’s impossible to even start contradicting it.

    If you ever want to lose your audience, GW, just say that so-and-so is “full of shit” and they’ll drift away in droves.

  32. [
    it is also a misconception that Japan surrendered purely due to the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
    ]

    Yes it was the “Twin shocks” of the Atom bomb and the Soviet attack that finally brought about the surrender. Of course Japanese hardliners tried to fight on. There was an attempted coup which failed.

  33. GG

    I was concentrating on current team members but will add Howard in an honarary capacity.

    What a little brat, wtte ‘Once Costello tried to make me go I decided not to go.’

    Anyway, I am glad he took that attitude because he got the *rse and so did the Liberals. With Costello they might just have squeaked back in. I call it Win Win.

  34. Now it’s Everybody Vs The Ratus:

    [Peter Costello was “fantastic” with the Australian public and did not lack the common touch, says former Howard government minister Nick Minchin.

    Speaking in response to claims made in a new book by John Howard that his former treasurer was an “elitist” who could not connect with average Australians, Senator Minchin said the description was inaccurate and was not supported by his own experiences with Mr Costello.

    “I think that is unfair on Peter,” said Senator Minchin, who is retiring from parliament next June.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/howards-costello-blast-unfair-says-minchin-20101022-16ww2.html?autostart=1

  35. [
    Your notion that Hockey may not sit at the next election might come true. OTOH, what would he do if forced to work for a living?
    ]

    Didn’t someone on here suggest stay at home dad a while back?

  36. Boer
    [Your notion that Hockey may not sit at the next election might come true. OTOH, what would he do if forced to work for a living?]
    He could quite credibly become a house husband. No need to work for a living.

  37. [I await Costello’s vindictive response – I really hope he reveals something damaging like proof of Howard’s involvement in the AWB-Iraq bribes; conspiracy in the training of a non-union waterworking work-force in Dubai; prior knowledge that there were no WMD; numerous lies to parliament; knowledge of SEIV X; etc, etc. please please please]

    Cossie has no ticker,the best we can expect from him, is him rocking his hammock at bit faster

    🙁

  38. BW

    [With Costello they might just have squeaked back in. I call it Win Win.]

    That one is the Lib equivalent of what would have happened if Labor stuck with Rudd. We’ll never know but we’d all love to know.

  39. [Your notion that Hockey may not sit at the next election might come true. OTOH, what would he do if forced to work for a living? ]

    food taster?
    before photo?

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