Essential Research: 50-50

The latest Essential Research survey confirms the picture of last week’s Newspoll in showing a decline in Tony Abbott’s popularity, but essentially no change in voting intention. Labor has in fact lost its 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, but the primary vote figures are all but unchanged with the Coalition steady on 44 per cent, Labor down a point to 40 per cent and the Greens up one to 9 per cent. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is 39 per cent, down four points on when the question was last asked in the September 20 poll, while his disapproval is up seven points to 45 per cent. Julia Gillard on the other hand is steady on both approval (45 per cent) and disapproval (37 per cent), and her lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 47-35 to 49-33. Questions on expectations for the economy, personal financial situation and job security find respondents leaning towards optimism, while one on the Murray-Darling Basin has 36 per cent believing the government should “purchase water rights from irrigators willing to sell” rather than “leave existing water allocations in place” or “compulsorily buy water rights from irrigators and farmers” (17 per cent each).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,668 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. I see that Ciobbo on News24 reckons it would be better for Asylum seeker kids to be in Indonesian, Pakistani or Iranian camps or Nauru than in the Aust community.

    Nothing appalls me more than the lines on Asylum seekers that say we should adopt punitive policies “for their own good”

  2. LOL. I think she was just overwhelmed – she said “oh there you are sweetheart” to Wyatt Roy. 😆

    Also there seem to be more people in the chamber to hear her than for Andrew Leigh.

  3. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@119

    morewest.
    So this end of the river should just be left to dry up? Acid mud, loss of habitat plus the upstream effects of the river no longer flowing to the sea? What is this, acceptable loss?

    The water the Government is buying goes to environmental flow, so buying up licenses around Renmark, Loxton, etc, would increase the amount of water that makes it to the Lower Lakes, though there would be a chase for returning some of this for use upstream.

    Moreover, evaporating some 850 GL from the Lower Lakes to keep them in an unnatural freshwater state is madness, IMHO. Despite the claims of the LL wackos, the lakes were never fully, or even mostly freshwater in the past. That defies logic – the bed of the Murray is wholly below mean sea level as far upstream as Blanchetown, history – in 1830 Charles Sturt, the first white man to go boating on the lakes, struck saltwater only a few miles below where Wellington now is [1], and science [2] (despite recent contrary claims by the SA EPA which seems to have fallen under the thrall of the LL wackos).

    1: “Thus far, the waters of the lake had continued sweet; but on filling a can when we were abreast of this point, it was found that they were quite unpalatable, to say the least of them. The transition from fresh to salt water was almost immediate, and it was fortunate we made the discovery in sufficient time to prevent our losing ground. “
    Charles Sturt, Two expeditions into the interior of southern Australia, Book II, Chpt 6

    The “point” is almost certainly Pomanda Point on Pomanda Island about 10Km downstream of Wellington. Later in the same chapter Sturt describes a tidal fish trap being tended by Aboriginals and seeing seals on Lake Alexandrina. BTW-marine fish were regularly caught in the River at Murray Bridge before the barrages were closed in 1940. Dolphins were also regular visitors to MB during the Federation drought of 1895-1902/3 when the Murray stopped flowing.

    2: Extensive core sampling conducted early in the decade by Peter Gell of Ballarat University for the SA Government show that the Lower Lakes have been at least partly salty for at least the last 6000 years. Professor Gell has said, “That system has withstood — and you could possibly even say benefited from — the inflow of seawater on a reasonably regular basis over time. It seems to me that we shouldn’t be allocating very scarce (fresh) water resources to a system that has been at least in part estuarine.”
     http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/sea-a-natural-for-murray-lakes/story-e6frg6p6-1111118486728 

  4. Fiz@124

    What a capital idea, Boerwar! Let’s make Myrtleford the new capital of South Australia. The climate is relatively similar, if a little wetter in winter. A lovely, lush valley. This is already a stellar wine growing and making region, so that will be nice and familiar. Snow a short drive away – extra bonus! Bright and Harietteville can be the new Hills district. Beechworth can be the new Hahndorf. And I won’t have to be represented by the Indi Puff Adder any longer! We all win!

    Count me in. I can have my bags packed in an hour! Haven’t been there for 30 something years, but I’ve always fancied Bright as a place to live.

  5. Oops, when I wrote @820 on the last thread, I got my wires crossed.

    The quote I was trying to make was

    “believing is seeing”..

    That was in reference to the talk about religious visions.

  6. Yes, I agree in part morewest . Trying to keep the lakes artificially fresh permanently is a silly game, and largely driven, I suspect by local agricultural and farm interests in reality who found it a useful reservoir until the evaporation induced salt levels made this impossible.

    On the other hand they DO need to have a lot more freshwater flow into them , and any changes to allow a change of state need to be managed carefully given the toxic state that the management processes of the lakes and the basin as a whole have generated over many decades.

  7. Graeme Morris tried to use the argument that AS kids being treated properly will encourage AS to bring their children on the boats. His opposite number then said that Morris was in effect saying children should stay in appalling conditions to deter the AS. Morris had nowhere to go. Speers couldn’t get off the topic quickly enough.

  8. [The Climate Change Department says only a small percentage of houses insulated under a controversial Federal Government program have been affected by fire.

    The Government scrapped its home insulation program earlier this year after it was linked to hundreds of house fires and the deaths of four workers, three of whom were killed when installing foil insulation.

    Climate Change Department official Martin Bowles told a Senate committee that faulty insulation installation had resulted in 197 fires.

    He says the number is insignificant given more than 1 million houses were insulated under the program.

    “One hundred and ninety-seven fires roughly equates to less than 0.02 of a per cent, which is significantly less than what we understand to be the long-term average of those sorts of significant fire issues within insulation,” he said.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/10/18/3041504.htm?section=justin

    So will Hunt give up on fires now?

  9. ruawake,

    When have the facts casued the Coalition to change any of it’s attacks.

    Trust me, all you will hear is that 197 fires occurred. Not that the rate of fires has actually probably dropped.

  10. Bigbob
    [Trust me, all you will hear is that 197 fires occurred.]
    You just have to read the headline from that link to their ABC

    “Faulty insulation behind 197 fires”

  11. [You just have to read the headline from that link to their ABC

    “Faulty insulation behind 197 fires”]

    Just like ‘school gall rip-offs’ — it doesn’t matter if they are statistically insignificant, if you lave out a comparison figure, they sound like a lot to the average punter.

    The main reason why the govt needs to defend better!

  12. [“Faulty insulation behind 197 fires”]

    How many fires a year from “Oh my goodness the chips”?

    [NRMA Insurance estimates more than 15 fires a week** start in Queensland kitchens. Common fire hazards include cooking oil overheating, bread getting caught in toasters, food left simmering and forgotten, and hot plates left on.]
    http://www.nrmaqld.com.au/about-us/media-releases/20090514-a.shtml

    So to be conservative lets say its the same in other States. Whats that about 100 fires a week?

    Nick off Mike. 😛

  13. [So will Hunt give up on fires now?]

    And take up ….. instead?

    After Julia’s mates’ demolition of the Opposition today, there’s not much left.

  14. An Employee advocate has just riduculed KK’s claims in relation to Workplace reform in NSW. In the war between JG and KK he picked JG to win! lol

  15. [Note: This piece was sent to every MP and Senator as well as many members of the media.]

    Ari, it should also be sent to PR Companies, given they create over 65% of the “News”.

  16. It’s comforting to see shockjocks score low on honesty etc. It says to me people are seeing their foam-flecked drivel for what it is.

  17. Puff

    Sorry for the late reply was called away

    [Punna
    You can’t have any SA wine until I hear you say ‘Afganistarn’, ‘darnce’ and ‘charnce’.]

    I can say paasty and fritz 🙂 – daance and chaance too.

    Rolled Rs are just un-Australian 😀

  18. [Better trout than carp! ]

    If you are a Trout Cod then the introduced trout may well do you more harm even the carp, morewest, eating your youngsters and competing for food in the faster flowing upper reaches where the Trout Cod head to breed.

    Still, I agree it is hard to imagine anything doing more damage than those danged carp.

  19. I thought the PM and Tony Burke were in top form in question time today. Tony needs to change the record because I knew the first thing that would come out of his mouth was AS and then Nauru.

  20. Back in the days of The Big Ship’s “Queen’s English” we were taught to say

    Austrayllya

    Austray-lee-ah was considered to be what we now call bogan.

  21. Punna

    Thinking about it, seems to me that the letter ‘R’ is un-Austrayan.
    Hence we have ‘our’ pronounced ‘owa’ and ‘brought’ pronounced ‘bought’.
    Bought/brought is another on the list of shifting words.

  22. [You can’t have any SA wine until I hear you say ‘Afganistarn’, ‘darnce’ and ‘charnce’.]

    Guilty! 🙂

    One of the funniest things I’ve noticed about Easterners (esp. up QLD way) is your tendency to pronounce words like ‘pool’ and ‘school’ as ‘pewel’ and ‘schewel’ respectively. (Especially the former – it sometimes sounds like your making laser gun sound effects!)

  23. [Tony needs to change the record…]

    Difficult for him, to be fair. He is not interested in any policy detail and it seems his shadowy guys cannot provide him with any.

  24. [ack in the days of The Big Ship’s “Queen’s English” we were taught to say

    Austrayllya

    Austray-lee-ah was considered to be what we now call bogan.]

    Not in my necks of the woods, Punna (both in Aus-trail-ee-ah and Angle-land!)

  25. Rod Hagen@157

    On the other hand they DO need to have a lot more freshwater flow into them

    I doubt they need that much. They were probably only on the fresh side of brackish during years of good rains such as this one. They would have then progressively become more saline in the intervening years reaching sea levels of salinity or higher after a few years.

    For example, thanks to Sturt’s record we know the Lower lakes were already too saline to drink in 1830. They would have been much worse during the 1837-40 drought, one of the severest on record when the Murrumbidgee and other highland rivers turned to dust for 2 years (they did in the 1860s, 1890s and 1913-1915 too), returning to near freshwater levels following the major floods of 1850. Incidentally, these floods destroyed the first recorded dam on the Murray built by the explorer Edward John Eyre near Blanchetown. As this was before steam pumps it was probably a fairly tame affair providing only enough water to hand irrigate an acre or so.

    As there is a greater area of acid sulphate affected soils upstream these should receive priority if there is any spare water. Unlike the Lower Lakes there is no alternative water source for these.

  26. lizzie

    Yes. I play World of Warcraft and find it quite difficult to pronounce

    Woorrrld of Wawrrrrrcrrrrraft (a as in dad) in the way inventors do.

    I tend more to

    Weld of Wawcyahft 🙂

  27. The opposition base the vast majority of their questions on Boats!, batts, debt and BER, with additions for whatever issue the govt is facing – today it was MDB. The only thing that changes is the order in which they are asked. Sometimes Boats! are first, and sometimes it’s debt. If they are really being tricky, they might go one QT with no question on debt, but you can rest assured it will return the next day. I’m sure it isn’t hard for the govt to pre-empt what they will ask.

    I would love to know who is responsible for their QT tactics.

  28. All that is not as bad as hearing ABC presenters pronounce words such as ‘due’ as ‘doo’, new as ‘noo’ and ‘mute’ as ‘moot’.

  29. Heard the replay of question time.

    Tony Burke proved his ability today with his quote of Abbott and Joyce’s election promise on the Murray Darling Basin.

    Brilliant!

  30. But it will be boats and batts that run on the news. Again. However, I suspect both have lost their impact for everyone except “outraged” Liberals and the media.

    Every day that passes must further cement Oakeshott and Windsor’s belief that their assessment of the Libs was spot on.

    Abbott is now mired in his own negativity. Unable to shift ground and convincing nobody new. He can never get government like this. Even debt is a dead issue because of the Libs own costing blowouts.

    Like our own Liberal example all he can do his howl at the moon as defeat gnaws at his soul.

  31. ruawake@161

    Climate Change Department official Martin Bowles told a Senate committee that faulty insulation installation had resulted in 197 fires.

    He says the number is insignificant given more than 1 million houses were insulated under the program.

    “One hundred and ninety-seven fires roughly equates to less than 0.02 of a per cent, which is significantly less than what we understand to be the long-term average of those sorts of significant fire issues within insulation,” he said.

    About friggin time that someone said what we’ve known for yonks thanks to Possum!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  32. [(esp. up QLD way) is your tendency to pronounce words like ‘pool’ and ’school’ as ‘pewel’ and ’schewel’ respectively.]

    That’s have to be northern NSW, TSOP. I have family all over Q, spent almost 40 yrs teaching (in Q) across the gamut from from year1 to postgrad for almost 40 yrs, and I’ve NEVAH heard a Q’lander pronounce “oo” as “ew”.

    Victorian minor private skewl kids, OTOH, do use skewl; as they pronounce “good” with the “oo” as in “coo” (provincial English), instead pure vowel O (European) as in stood – reflecting the difference made by soft (l) & hard (d) final consonants.

  33. Puff there is a male announcer on ABC News Radio, he is on late morning early afternoon weekdays and he pronounces showers as showyuz, grinds every time I hear it. Phoned and asked if the ABC would mind training their staff in even the basics, was put through to some manager of programmes, who insisted all air staff were sent on training sessions regularly.I suggested they sack the trainers and start from scratch…”thankyou for your interest in our programmes sir, bye.”
    Another moaning listener dealt with.

  34. I personally don’t care how the ABC announcers pronounce stuff, I just wish they would dump “The Opposition says …” .

  35. Just have a look at the vituperative bile gushing into the website of the Adelaide Ragvertiser over the siting of a relatively small centre for the housing of low risk asylum seekers at Inverbrackie near Woodside in the Adelaide Hills.
    I would venture that a large proportion of these ignoramuses were on the same site singing the praises of Mary McKillop.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/new-detention-centre-for-sa/comments-e6frea83-1225940182833?pg=3
    These correspondents represent the unhinged one’s focus group.

  36. agreed rua @197

    The mispronunciations are least of my worries at the moment, but I dare say they are yet more symptoms of the same disease that has infested this gangrenous broadcaster, their ABC.

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