No accounting for taste

Matthew Franklin of The Australian reports a Newspoll survey commissioned by conservative think tank the Institute of Public Administration finds Australians’ views on electoral reform are the opposite of my own: 70 per cent back compulsory voting, while “more than half would prefer first-past-the-post voting to the preferential system”.

Now for some other matters I’ve been keeping on the back-burner due to post-election ennui:

• Tim Colebatch of The Age offered a litany of evidence last month on the extent of public disaffection expressed at the August 21 election, which seemed especially concentrated in areas traditionally strong for Labor. The turnout of 93.2 per cent, meaning votes cast as a percentage of enrolled voters, was the lowest since the introduction of compulsory voting in 1925. Furthermore, the informal vote rose from 4.0 per cent in 2007 to 5.6 per cent in 2010. Anecdotal evidence of large numbers of blank ballot papers have led to talk of a “Mark Latham effect”, although Peter Brent at Mumble observes it was actually 2007 that was the aberration. However, one of the reasons proffered for the lower informal vote on that occasion was a lower number of candidates (no doubt a consequence of an increased deposit, one of the few agreeable features of the Howard government’s 2006 electoral law changes). That the number was lower still this time brings the disaffection hypothesis back into play. Speaking of Latham, his column in the Australian Financial Review on September 23 argued the election amounted to a rejection of two-party politics with reference to a combined major party vote of 71.8 per cent, when measured as a percentage of enrolled voters rather than votes cast. The Australian’s Cut and Paste section then proceeded to completely miss the point in response. Brian Costar and Peter Browne at Inside Story calculate that the non-voting rate as a proportion of the adult population was 21 per cent, the main culprit being an enrolment regime that uses the power of data-matching to strike those with incorrect enrolments from the roll rather than update their details. The solution to this problem, automatic enrolment, has now been adopted at state level in New South Wales and Victoria, but is opposed at federal level by the Coalition for completely spurious reasons which are examined in another article by Peter Browne and Brian Costar.

• A fortnight ago, the Australian Electoral Commission released a report into the pre-polling irregularities that led to the exclusion from the count of 2977 votes in Bootbhy and 1306 in Flynn. The difficulties in each case related to the reform that allowed pre-poll votes to be treated as ordinary rather than declaration votes, and thus to be admitted to the count on election night. This required protocols concerning the security of ballot boxes which had not applied when each vote was contained in a declaration envelope and later subjected to individual scrutiny – in particular, a requirement that boxes not be opened during the three week pre-polling period. At the Oaklands Park pre-polling booth in Boothby, the polling official emptied the ballot boxes at the end of each day and transferred their contents to larger boxes, so as to keep “an ongoing detailed record of the number of ordinary ballot papers and the various categories of declaration votes issued”. On polling day the boxes were taken to the Boothby scrutiny centre for counting, at which point the Labor scrutineer noted the ballots inside were “stacked and flat” rather than “disordered and jumbled” in the usual fashion. There were two separate incidents in Flynn. In Blackwater, an official opened the boxes and counted the votes upon the final closure of pre-poll voting the day before the election, based on a set of instructions from the district returning officer intended to detail procedures for ordinary booths on polling day. At Emerald, the officer had opened the box on a number of occasions “to rearrange the papers and create more space”, and then applied new security seals (the officer had been provided with extra seals on request to the divisional office, which should have rung alarm bells at the time). This came to light due to procedures used to identify and record the seals. The net effect of the votes’ exclusion in Boothby was to cut Liberal member Andrew Southcott’s winning margin by 339 votes; I am not aware of the impact in Flynn, but the eventual Liberal National Party margin was 5720 votes.

• Ruminating on Labor’s malaise is very much in vogue this season, as demonstrated by the post-election review process being undertaken by party elders Steve Bracks, Bob Carr and John Faulkner, and the publication this week of Power Crisis: The Self-Destruction of a State Labor Party, by former NSW state MP Rodney Cavalier. Writing in The Australian, Cavalier calls for a secret ballots in preselection votes and a prohibition on candidates who in the past five years have been members of the “political class” (“those on the staff of ministers, ALP office and union officials who do not come from the industries the unions represent”). Lenore Taylor of the Sydney Morning Herald reports NSW Labor is planning to choose candidates in selected electorates by conducting open primaries, either through a straight vote or “a hybrid of an open-to-all-comers vote and the usual branch member system”. This follows the lead of the Nationals in the independent-held seat of Tamworth and Victorian Labor in Liberal-held Kilsyth. Disappointingly for Cavalier, the latter process turned up Vicki Setches, electorate officer to upper house MP Shaun Leane.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

895 comments on “No accounting for taste”

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  1. Re banks’ commentary on increasing interest rates out of cycle of RBA increases in the official cash rate. I had not been keeping track of CDS (credit default swap) rates, but there is a chart in the AFR today of Bank of America CDS rates going from 110-130bp rates (~ 1.1%-1.3% credit margin) to spiking to 200bp (2%) on the mortgage foreclosure illegality scandal enveloping the US securitise dmortgage market.

    I guess this ~0.8% increase could be having a material impact on the domestic banks’s offshore debt raising capability/pricing (big macro-risk for AU; the 4 domestic banks are in the top 10 global borrowers; I cant see how that is sensible for the ~20th largest economy)

  2. Lizzie

    I used to think that way about Halloween until I married a Suuth American. The day is quite embedded in their culture and has many similar and disinct features from the US version.

    I found this comment on-line about it

    [Mexico, Latin America And Spain
    Among Spanish-speaking nations, Halloween is known as “El Dia de los Muertos.” It is a joyous and happy holiday…a time to remember friends and family who have died. Officially commemorated on November 2 (All Souls’ Day), the three-day celebration actually begins on the evening of October 31. Designed to honor the dead who are believed to return to their homes on Halloween, many families construct an altar in their home and decorate it with candy, flowers, photographs, fresh water and samples of the deceased’s favorite foods and drinks. Frequently, a basin and towel are left out in order that the spirit can wash prior to indulging in the feast. Candles are incense are burned to help the departed find his or her way home. Relatives also tidy the gravesites of deceased family members, including snipping weeds, making repairs and painting. The grave is then adorned with flowers, wreaths or paper streamers. Often, a live person is placed inside a coffine which is then paraded through the streets while vendors toss fruit, flowers and candies into the casket. ]

  3. whateverpedia 747

    No, no, you’ve got it wrong. The new favourite is “and cetera”. 🙂
    The could of, should of, are all in the same bogan basket.

  5. [madcyril
    Posted Monday, October 18, 2010 at 11:22 am | Permalink
    blue_green, I saw his two tweets yesterday about Rudd and thougt to myself “is he drunk?”. Not smart at all]

    Yep, he is just a boof head.

  7. triton

    You have hit on one of my OH’s pet peeves.
    And in a post above, the new one that’s becoming popular “sprouting” opinions instead of “spouting”.

    blue_green
    It’s not that I object to Hallowe’en itself, it’s the Americanisation where the kids go around demanding treats and I mean demanding.

  8. my say @ 679

    [it seems that people are afraid of what they dont understand]

    Indeed, yes, as that is the very basis of religion – a crutch for those without the ability, or the courage to face the unknown without assistance from some supernatural source.

    [but think about crew do you all celebrate christmas i bet you do]

    It depends on what you mean by ‘celebrate?’

    Do I go to Mass on Christmas Eve? I do not.

    Do I pray to Jesus on Christmas Day? I do not.

    Do I accept the Public Holiday, as I do on the Queen’s Birthday and Anzac Day, without acknowledging The Monarch, or doing more than watching the Digger’s marching. Yes I do.

    Don’t mistake accepting a duly gazetted Public Holiday for hypocrisy about religion – I may be an Atheist, but I enjoy a day off as much as the next unbeliever.

  9. [Another one to miss.]

    Tonight’s Q&A is a doubtful one for me too with Flannery on. His temperature blunder in an article has ruined his standing completely for me. I just see a buffoon now.

  12. triton

    Flannery has been wrong so many times that he has seriously damaged the view of the public of climate science. I agree that he is a buffoon.

  13. OPT@623:

    [BTW, The Feast of the Circumcision is Jan 1 (NYD) Wrong date, of course. Jesus was born during the Roman Census & Julius C had corrected & reformed the calendar. Writs issued during March; the Lustrum celebrated in August.]

    It is my understanding that there never was such a census.

    The messiah had to be born in Bethlehem to fulfil the prophecies, and thus he was going to be born in Bethlehem, even if a census had to be invented.

  15. lizzie @ 699

    [There, I’ve said it. I’ll be calm now for several months.]

    Agreed – I have given up counting the examples of incorrect terminology, grammar and plain lazy syntax on the ABC, both written and verbal. My old English mistress would be spinning in her grave if she had to endure the inanities and outright mispronunciations that are endemic among the poorly trained staff of ABC news and current affairs.

  16. [blue_green, I saw his two tweets yesterday about Rudd and thougt to myself “is he drunk?”. Not smart at all]

    madcyril:

    I saw them too, plus others he’s posted over the last few weeks. It really isn’t a good look – he looks like he’s holding a personal grudge of some sort.

    I think he needs to grow up and get over himself.

  17. whateverpedia

    [ The Roman Empire celebrated the rebirth of the sun god Sol Invictus on Dec 25, so the early christians changed their big day out to coincide with this festival. After all, who’s going to notice a few people celebrating when the whole empire is celebrating?

    Had they not changed the day, in all likelihood christianity would not have survived.]

    I had thought that Dec 25 was chosen by the Christians to compete with the sun-worshippers. After all, solar worship was a major religion in the Roman Emperor, and it seems that many sun-worshippers came over to Christianity – like the emperor Constantine. After all, both Christianity and solar worship were monotheistic faiths. The emperor Constantine is said to have received a vision in the form of a cross superimposed on the sun.

    I strongly suspect that Christianity would have survived whatever date was chosen for Christmas. The Christian religion proved incredibly resilient in the face of intermittent and often vicious persecutions by various emperors (Nero, Decius, Diocletian, Galerius, etc). However, when the emperor Constantine embraced Christianity, Christianity’s fate was sealed as a world religion.

  18. Socrates@731

    Morewest

    True, it didn’t stop their economy even at that price; the entire electricity sector is less than 4% of the economy.

    The Swedes tax all hydrocarbon, not just generator fuels. However, they don’t tax fuels used in power generation. They add a carbon tax on the electricity itself (consumers only, not businesses).

    I found this calculator which compared Swedish GDP with that of other industrialised countries during the years 1970-2009 very instructive. Sweden had a deep depression in the early 1990s which took time to recover from, but this century it has outpaced most other European economies and America. We’ve done a bit better, but we have enormous mineral wealth and much higher population growth. Finland has also done well.

    The experience of both countries shows that carbon taxes even high carbon taxes have minimal affects on the economy. People adapt, life goes on.

  20. [Flannery can be a bit on and off, but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.]

    I’m not after he betrayed a complete ignorance of temperature and he’s a supposed guru of global warming.

  21. don @ 762

    [It is my understanding that there never was such a census.

    The messiah had to be born in Bethlehem to fulfil the prophecies, and thus he was going to be born in Bethlehem, even if a census had to be invented.]

    Your understanding is absolutely correct, on both scores.

    The Romans of the early Principate were assiduous record keepers, and there is no record of an empire-wide census at this time. It’s pure fabrication – as you say, to find a reason to put the holy family in Bethlehem.

    Another myth: King Herod’s ‘Massacre of the Innocents’, the alleged murder of all the young male children in Bethlehem. There is no evidence that Herod I, the Roman puppet king, ever did such a thing.

  24. [I saw them too, plus others he’s posted over the last few weeks. It really isn’t a good look – he looks like he’s holding a personal grudge of some sort.

    I think he needs to grow up and get over himself.]

    I don’t think it’s immaturity & I don’t think it’s a grudge … because obviously a grudge can only held by someone who lost … someone like, for example, a certain gentleman from Queensland. 🙂

  25. lizzie@743

    I am also annoyed that we are now having Hallowe’en imposed on us from USA

    Me too. Saw a Woolies ad earlier today promoting their Hallowe’en goodies which got the blood pressure up several points. It was bad enough when the occasional child fronted up expecting ‘candy’ without any real concept of what it was about, but now we have business pushing this foreign concept to fill their cash registers. %$#@#$!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  27. The perverse politician called Abbott
    Has a most reprehensible habit
    When the spoilt little boy
    Sees a chance to destroy
    He will reach up with both hands and grab it.

    Can’t claim credit for this one. It was in the CM today. Hope I can’t sued for copyright.

  29. VIK. No problem. While it is rather reductive to label someone a “fan” or not, I am more of a “fan” of Rudd than his successors (so far, anyway).

  30. my say As an atheist I celebrate Christmas as a cultural event. My cultural heritage goes back along the Judeo-Christian line that connects before the rise of Christianity to the classical world of Ancient Greece and Rome. And before that the Egyptian and more.

    As a person of Anglo descent my cultural heritage also links with the ancient practices of the early Britons, the Saxons and other ancient tribes. In all places and times people have used many excuses to come together as families and celebrate life, reflect on the year’s passing, demonstrate generosity to each other. It is a healthy social practice that brings communities together. I acknowledge the history of the day – including the strange account of why it occurs on that day.

    I acknowledge that some people celebrate for different reasons. This isn’t a Catholic bashing exercise. But Christmas is not owned by the Catholics – it is a social-cultural event that is own by a whole host of people, including Atheists.

    I have read a lot of your posts and think that you are a person of good heart and genuine belief and you and I think the same way about Julia. I also think that if Mary MacKillop had done all that she had done and was an Atheist it would have made no difference to the value of her life – it would be worth celebrating. I am happy to celebrate along side you.

  31. lizzie @ 752

    [The new favourite is “and cetera”. The could of, should of, are all in the same bogan basket.]

    My current bugbear is the mispronunciation of words like ‘home’ as ‘hime’ – this frightful degeneration appears to derive originally from South Australia, I am presuming via the many English migrants in the 1950’s.

    To hear ABC radio and TV on-air staff pronounce the words ‘home loan’ as ‘hime line’ drives me mad, and could be prevented if only the ABC actually bothered to listen to the abysmal accents of these pinheads before putting them on air. What ever happened to part of the job interview being where you may actually be tested for what you are being employed to do? Apparently at ABC TV the sole criteria for on-air employment is that you be a blonde, FoxNews clone, and you’re in.

    Dawkins knows what the debased criteria is for ABC Radio, but it certainly is not that one can speak coherently and correctly using ‘The Queen’s English.’

  32. blue-green:

    He does speak well, and I’ve been impressed with some of his public appearances – esp the mining tax debate he had with Clive whatshisname. However, since Rudd was removed all I’ve seen from Howes is snarky teenage posturing, and since the election, emoting and personal grudge stuff. Obviously Howes isn’t impressed with Rudd being appointed FM, and was one of those hoping he’d quietly retire from politics.

    Howes needs to remember that Labor respects its former Prime Ministers, unlike the LIberals who don’t care if they resign from their party in disgust.

  35. Confessions

    Speaking well is a good attribute. But achieving something is a different matter. When Howes actually achieves something then I will return to paying attention to the things he says.

  36. [The Romans of the early Principate were assiduous record keepers, and there is no record of an empire-wide census at this time. It’s pure fabrication – as you say, to find a reason to put the holy family in Bethlehem.

    Another myth: King Herod’s ‘Massacre of the Innocents’, the alleged murder of all the young male children in Bethlehem. There is no evidence that Herod I, the Roman puppet king, ever did such a thing.]

    From what I have researched, almost all stories of the origins of Christianity are fabrications or adaptations from pre-existing religious festivals in order to ‘fit’ with accepted conventions and usurp the practices for their own.

    This extends back also to the prgins of Judaism, which took pre-existing Egyptian myths/beliefs and transposing them.

    I suspect this practice was a practical political action in each case … we forget that the bulk of the population has always been illiterate, and the best way to bend will is to slowly modify what has always been. In other words … over time, the names changed but the basic ceremonies and beliefs were similar.

    The Romans only ever crushed a religion when it incited rebellion because it was a multi-religion society, thus it wasn’t difficult for them to adopt and adapt (unlike our society which stipulates that if you believe in one religion, you MUST do so to the exclusion of all others).

  39. On Williams original post: William, do you think the poll where people said they’d refer ‘first past the post’ is because few people understand what that might mean?

    i.e. apart from us tragics, do the general electorate realise that quite often the candidate who has the most primaries runs second?

    Which begs the question: Do we know, if it was first past the post, who would have won the last election?

  40. [ I wonder what he actually achieved (other than a media presence) to deserve such attention in the first place.]

    But he achieved quite a lot …… The switch in AWU allegiance was a key factor in the events of June 23 …

  42. Nice summary, Jenauthor.

    Also, certain Roman emperors persecuted Christians even in the absence of any rebellion by the Christians, simply because they saw the Christians’ refusal to sacrifice in honour of the emperor as a sign of sedition. Most other religions just gave lip service, but many Christians refused because of the First Commandment.

  44. Re Roman census, Massacre of the Holy Innocents etc…it is helpful to understand the particular audience of the different gospels to frame these references. For example, these 2 stories come respectively from Luke only and Matthew only, not in both.

    Matthew was designed for a Jewish-heritage audience, so the positioning of Christ is like a second Moses. Thus there are numerous Mosaic references, including the flight into Egypt (to escape the Massacre) – and a second Exodus – and the beatitudes (“Happy are the…etc) is said to be given on a mountain (Matthew 5:1) – a second 10 commandments. Matthw just says Christ was born in Bethlehem – no mention of a census

    In contrast, Luke was designed for a gentile-Roman audience, so the positioning of Christ in the framework of the Roman state – for example, the (invention?) of the census, and the chronology of John the Baptist’s work (Luke 3:1…In the 15th year of the reign of Tiberius Caesar etc…which I think, does not chronologically work). And Luke quotes the beatitudes as well (at 5:17), and not only doesn’t mention a mountain, it specifically says Christ stood on a level place. (Luke does not mention the flight into Egypt)

    Probably more useful to think of the Bible as a book on theology, rather than literally a history or science book 🙂

  46. kakuru @ 766

    It seems we could debate (not argue) the reasons for changing the date until the cows come home, although we both agree that Jehoshua ben Joseph was NOT born on Dec 25. So in order to not take over the thread, let’s say we agree on the big picture, but not on the details. 🙂

    However, I’m not convinced that Constantine actually did embrace Xtianity, it may well have been foisted upon him on his death bed.

    The story about seeing a “cross superimposed on the sun”, is just that, a story. Let’s leave it at that.

  48. I am just listening to what appears to be the maiden speech of my newly elected member for Herbert.
    He is rabbiting on like a lunatic blaming the ALP for everything that is wrong in his opinion.
    He is forgetting that the party he belongs to was in government for twelve years and the Member for Herbert Peter Lindsay has been the member for 15 years.

    Sit down you lunatic you aren’t representing me with all your garbage spewing from your mouth.

  49. We don’t know who would have won the last election under FPP because people would have voted differently (i.e. adopted tactical voting so as not to waste their vote on less electable candidates).

  50. blue-green: Fair point, and one I agree with.

    From the Australian Story episode about Howes:

    [HUGH MORGAN, FMR MINING COMPANY EXECUTIVE: Well let me put it like this, as a supporter of the Liberal Party if you have to have a Labor Party prime minister, I think Paul would be a very sound person to have, and it would be in safe, predictable hands.]

    You can read that any number of ways. 😉

    The transcript is here. Make what you will of his life’s achievements.

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