Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Crikey reports the latest Essential Research survey has Labor moving to a 51-49 lead after three weeks at level pegging. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 42 per cent while the Coalition’s is down two to 43 per cent – suggesting the two-party shift to Labor has been dampened by rounding – and the Greens are steady are on 9 per cent, weakness for the Greens being an unusual feature of recent Essential polling. We are also informed the national broadband network was supposed by 56 per cent of respondents and opposed by only 18 per cent; 63 per cent think it important the government move “quickly” on an ETS or carbon tax; and 69 per cent support legalising euthanasia for those with incurable disease and severe pain. Tony Abbott is found to be favoured over Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader by 26 per cent to 20 per cent, with support for Turnbull evidently being concentrated among non-Coalition voters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,743 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. Turnbull cracked the sads and took his earpiece out whilst Jones was wrapping up. Turnbull looked furious. I did have a smidgen of respect for him prior to tonight, but now he just comes across as one hell of a loser.

  2. paritybit,

    Ever considered end-off?

    The filter is a low-order issue. It has a minimal value (-1%?) in protecting the innocents and none in preventing those who might be “corrupted”.

    I am not trying to restart a flame war.

  3. MT looked sick beforehand and sick after. In between he looked inept. He even tried to to off his earpiece before they segment finished … I’d say because he knew he was finished.

    If Malcolm is a techhead it wasn’t evident. When he got lost … he just hearked back to the cost (which was already proven wrong) and flubbered along.

    Malcolm is showing that like Abbott, he is not around his brief as much as he’d like people to think. Abbott walks away from press conferences when he finds himself in that position. Malcolm prevaricates.

    Conroy and Jones wiped the floor with him … a shame the rest of the media can’t scrutinise the opposition in a similarly ruthless manner.

  4. Conroy makes a good point that the cost of the NBN has to be spread over the 40 years of the lifetime of the fibre. That is, it’s not the case that every household has to pay $4,000 up-front. The Tasmanian example seems to indicate that costs (internet + phone) might actually decrease while the the quality (speed, download limits) improves.

  5. Gusface,

    We will: the minority (Labor) government will be a blessing. The low-order issues will be resolved quickly; the larger ones, a little more slowly.

    Strangely, each one of us has an idea of what is low-order. If there is a potentially influential forum on that issue, I’m willing.

  6. Jason Wilson really serving it up to the Oz over their disgraceful and totally unwarranted treatment of Grog.

    Bet he is not the only one who is having second thoughts about being part of the Twitterverse after having a first hand and close experience of Grog’s experience and a few others in recent times.

    The news Ltd hacks might find that this backfires badly on them from here on in as people will be much less likely to interact with them and provide leads & material for their trashy written offerings especially via twitter.

    [Whatever James Massola’s intentions in writing his story, The Australian signalled this week that it’s still threatened by citizen media, it’s still prepared to go after critics’ personal lives (however small their reach), and it doesn’t really think it needs to justify its actions (given that the justifications offered so far have been so risible as to be worse than no justification at all). As someone who occasionally makes critical comment about a range of media outlets (including the ABC), I’d be foolish not to take this on board. Though I’m not intimidated by media bullies – a couple of rounds done with Bolt should show that – for now, I’d like whatever I put out there in terms of public commentary to be the best I can make it. ]

    [I’ll miss a number of things about Twitter, some quite a lot. A lot of my best friends are on there, and a lot of my major sources of entertainment. With over 2,000 people on each side of the following/followers ledger, I will also miss the interaction with a bewildering variety of different people, from different places, doing different things. Also, naturally, I get a lot of food for thought there (even though I still think Twitter is at its clumsiest when you try to carry out serious debate on complex issues). But it’s a sacrifice I’m prepared to make as I continue to think through how we can best promote freedom of public speech in this country – a freedom that some of our leading media outlets seem determined to keep for themselves. ]
    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s3025013.htm

  7. Interesting how Macolm is using the same opposition tactic of diversion with half-truths to muddy the perspective.

    Just like ‘carbon price’ is being translated as ‘carbon tax’ — which can be two entirely different things depending on what policy is enacted.

    This is what irritates me so much about the msm. They don’t distinguish between the truth and the half-truth … they merely follow the opposition’s half-truth lead.

  8. This exchange was a beauty.

    Jones to Turnbull: “Those questions will have to wait for another time when you’ve developed your policy more fully.” #Lateline 13 minutes ago via TweetDeck

  9. Thoroughly enjoyed Turnbull’s grilling tonight. The poor man looked so dejected. Tony Jones had the audacity to cut through his marketeering bullshit.

    And what about Conroy!! The speaker may be on his own but someone’s certainly found a pair for Stephen.

  10. Puff/3612,

    Which is pretty correct,

    Alot of the exchanges have a number of DSLAM’s from providers, they are not expanded over different exchanges so one ISP is a competitor to Telstra. A number of Exchanges have about 5-10 DSLAM’s each.

  11. I haven’t checked the other posts yet, but Malcolm Turnbull is embarrassing himself on Lateline with his obvious ignorance about the NBN………..

    He can’t even get basic figures about how much it’s going to cost each household for the NBN over the next 30-40 yrs. He also has NO idea of the basic technology of the NBN…….and says most houses get satisfactory speeds via ADSL2+…….true figure is only approx 500 out of 5000 exchanges are ADSL2+ enabled……..

    I’m gobsmacked, and if he’s their chosen NBN wrecker……he’s stuffed!!!

  12. Malcolm Turnbull was particularly unimpressive tonight. Pwned by Conroy can’t look good on the cv. Tony Baloney wouldn’t be happy, the attack dog barely had a bark let alone a bite. Can’t see the NBN being destroyed on that effort. Was a bit disappointed Conroy didn’t make the point that Screwball is only arguing the NBN is bad because Telephone Tone wants him to feel some political pain. Plus, Malcolm’s head is too big for close-up TV.

  13. …..and Turnbull didn’t even say goodnight to Tony at the end of the i/v……..he looked ropeable……very good performance by Conroy…….ran rings around MT. Tony Jones very good too as didn’t allow MT to get away with any bullshit………gee I enjoyed that!!!…..

  14. Peter Martin sticks the boot in over Grog also. I hope the deserved condemnation of Massola & the Oz goes viral to the extent that there is barely a person of voting age in Australia who is not aware of this scandal.

    [“Outing” homosexuals to their employers breaches this right. “Outing” a blogger using a pseudonym such as Grogs Gammut to his employer breaches this right.

    George Orwell warned of a world in which this routinely happened. News Corporation believes in it. Phone taps, anyone?

    James Massola’s defence of his action in stripping bare Grogs Gammut is here. He asks “So why did I out Grog if I thought he should keep blogging?”, fails to provide a compelling reason and then adds wistfully “I don’t want him to lose his job.”

    Stephen Spencer of Channel 10 (who has other identities in other contexts like us all) writes:

    It serves the interests of the gallery and various news outlets. He’s silenced and anyone else who speaks out is now on notice.

    I agree. For the record, I will never give away the other identities and occupations of the pseudonymous bloggers who routinely interact with me. I am deeply saddened. ]
    http://www.petermartin.com.au/

  15. [Quality my rear end – The Libs wanted to steal the black vote from Labor – pure and simple]

    Frank, stick your racist crap where the sun don’t shine. Aboriginal people have enough brains to vote for whoever they believe best represents them, not someone who is black. Your comment is merely a reflection of your own state of thought – narrow, puerile, mind-numbingly banal.

  16. scorps

    ironically it was grogs outing that made me dive back into twitter

    [frankscan65 @StGusface Welcome back – together we can cruch the Fibs, and their suckholes at the OO – and as for outing Grog – Be afraid, VERY Afraid. ]

  17. [ Harse
    Posted Wednesday, September 29, 2010 at 11:59 pm | Permalink
    Quality my rear end – The Libs wanted to steal the black vote from Labor – pure and simple

    Frank, stick your racist crap where the sun don’t shine. Aboriginal people have enough brains to vote for whoever they believe best represents them, not someone who is black. Your comment is merely a reflection of your own state of thought – narrow, puerile, mind-numbingly banal
    ]

    I’m not being Racist – I’m stating the politically reality – Ken Wyatt was pre-selected for one purpose only – to steal the black vote in a marginal ALP Seat. That is FACT.

    If he was so talented – why wasn’t he pre-selected for a safe Liberal Seat ??

    Stop being a Hypocrite.

  18. Gusface,

    [scorps

    ironically it was grogs outing that made me dive back into twitter ]

    It has made me mad as hell. I haven’t gone on to Twitter yet but intend to and will give any hack that pretends to be a “journalist” hell over it.

  19. VP

    ken made me feel V humbled indeed, a claas act , but as Frank correctly points out, why not run him in a safe Fib seat

    ps I agree labor needs more indigenous candidates

    [ Awhile back i suggested a simlair system to NZ’s, but gave up ]

  20. Scorps

    you and i have crossed swords in the past and said intemperate words, to which i can man up and apologise, but FMD the level of vitriol and PERSONAL attack is too much by the OO dobermanns

    I think the time has come to say enoughs enough

  21. Greg Jericho (Grog’s Gamut) is currently still employed. From the Australian:

    THE public servant outed as anonymous blogger Grog’s Gamut has kept his job, but is in discussions over his future. Greg Jericho, outed as the man behind the political blog by The Australian, is still turning up to work in the wake of the furore. His department head Eleanor Dean said the department was continuing to hold discussions “with a view to determining whether the actions constitute a breach of the APS Code of Conduct”.

  22. [I’m not being Racist – I’m stating the politically reality – Ken Wyatt was pre-selected for one purpose only – to steal the black vote in a marginal ALP Seat. That is FACT.]

    The Libs did exactly the same thing in Greenway, but this time with an Asian candidate.

  23. [ GhostWhoVotes
    Posted Thursday, September 30, 2010 at 12:22 am | Permalink
    Greg Jericho (Grog’s Gamut) is currently still employed. From the Australian:

    THE public servant outed as anonymous blogger Grog’s Gamut has kept his job, but is in discussions over his future. Greg Jericho, outed as the man behind the political blog by The Australian, is still turning up to work in the wake of the furore. His department head Eleanor Dean said the department was continuing to hold discussions “with a view to determining whether the actions constitute a breach of the APS Code of Conduct”.
    ]

    And the Grubnbery at the OO continues 🙁

  24. I actually oppose anonymous blogs. all public domain comments should be owned. anonymity is not freedom of speech – it is repressed, distorted, traumatised speech.
    Let’s see all speakers – long live NBN.

  25. [ Harse
    Posted Thursday, September 30, 2010 at 12:22 am | Permalink
    Frank,

    what evidence do you have that Aboriginal people vote based on colour?
    ]

    People vote on Ethnic lines all the time – FACT.

    Why do you think people who are Greek/Italia are pre-selected in areas where there is a large member of that community ?? People feel comfortable voting for their kind.

    Nice try at verballing

  26. A few good tweets on the LL site. And they are still coming in fairly fast and hopefully spreading widely.

    No matter what is written about it in tomorrow’s MSM, the truth is already out there. Trying to put lipstick on Turnbull’s performance tonight on LL will just show up the Opp’s cheer squad for what they are. Stupid, partisan hacks who are fooling nobody anymore.

    Thank Dog for the internet and roll on the NBN.

    [daveyk317 What Malcolm Turnbull is proffering is analysis paralysis. #NBN is needed for future global competitiveness. ]

    [lapuntadelfin You say Mexican Latino Internet billionaire. I think Sol Trujillo ]

    [pblakez internet speed mexico ranks 91st, oz ranks 41st in world! billionaire by monopoly]

    http://twitter.com/search?q=%23Lateline

  27. [The Libs did exactly the same thing in Greenway, but this time with an Asian candidate]

    I think this shows merely the lack of your own thinking. If Asians are going to vote for Asians, then unless there’s a majority of Aisans you’d best run a whitefella because surely whitefellas will vote for their own kind too. Perhaps they were good candidates whom their party felt had a chance of winning based on merit. Why didn’t the Libs run a Chinaman in Bennelong? Don’t tell me all those Asians voted for a whitey?

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