Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Crikey reports the latest Essential Research survey has Labor moving to a 51-49 lead after three weeks at level pegging. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 42 per cent while the Coalition’s is down two to 43 per cent – suggesting the two-party shift to Labor has been dampened by rounding – and the Greens are steady are on 9 per cent, weakness for the Greens being an unusual feature of recent Essential polling. We are also informed the national broadband network was supposed by 56 per cent of respondents and opposed by only 18 per cent; 63 per cent think it important the government move “quickly” on an ETS or carbon tax; and 69 per cent support legalising euthanasia for those with incurable disease and severe pain. Tony Abbott is found to be favoured over Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader by 26 per cent to 20 per cent, with support for Turnbull evidently being concentrated among non-Coalition voters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,743 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 70 of 75
1 69 70 71 75
  1. [He needs a safe seat for a start – why do you think they didn’t give him a safe Liberal one ?]
    Frank he said several weeks ago that his relatives & other indigenous communities were upset by him joining the Coalition.
    Has that subsided now?

    I also think the Rabbott would have been smarting a bit over Wyatt’s acknowledgment of Rudd’s apology.

  2. I am sure you will correct me if this is wrong but didn’t the government acknowledge months back that we were swiping much needed health workers from third world countries?

  3. TSOP:

    Who do you think will take over from Abbott once his leadership becomes untenable?

    Will they go to Turnbull or Hockey or someone else?

  4. Diog, sorry for my skepticism. I find that just reading all these posts (including 88 of yours on this thread alone) is very time consuming. I tips me hat to your time management skills.

  5. [ABC TV News, 9.30 pm: Still reporting ” the first time in almost 70 years …”]
    why should we expect any better, this takes me back, oh about 7 weeks ago when there was the reports of the marginals poll that was extrapolated to a statewide swing in NSW and Qld.

    Come to think about it, Antony Green excepted, what in federal politics has the ABC got right in the last 6 months?
    I am thinking about everything from online journos tweets to headlines on ABC online.

    I gave my hi-def set top box to my parents so they could watch ABC 2, as I didn’t have any use for it.

  6. Beazley lead from a marginal seat and Howards was pretty marginal in the end.

    I really don’t see why Frank is acting so childish and jealous about the Libs preselecting someone of obvious quality.

    I really think Frank is only happy with a one-party democracy

  7. [blue_green
    Posted Wednesday, September 29, 2010 at 9:30 pm | Permalink
    Beazley lead from a marginal seat and Howards was pretty marginal in the end.

    I really don’t see why Frank is acting so childish and jealous about the Libs preselecting someone of obvious quality.

    I really think Frank is only happy with a one-party democracy
    ]

    I’m stating a political reality.

    Something dimwits like you fail to rwealise – but then afgain you support fairytale merchants like Jack the Insidious.

    Says a lot really.

  8. [Who do you think will take over from Abbott once his leadership becomes untenable?

    Will they go to Turnbull or Hockey or someone else?]

    Bronnie 😆

    Actually, Turnbull is clearly setting himself up here. I’d put him as the favourite to succeed Abbott, if the latter loses the leadership. To be honest, I get an Andrew Peacock vibe from him – as a rival to Tony Abbott’s “John Howard”

    Hockey was the ideal alternative contender and a good compromise candidate but his dismal, thin skinned performances, combined with the numbers being botched, means that he has probably lost a bit of support and he’ll need to work on his problems before he can become a serious contender (right now he’d be a cross between the leaderships of Downer and Nelson.)

    This, of course, is subject to change if someone else can raise a decent profile. One problem with filling your caucus with relics, is you don’t have much room to move forward.

  9. [Will they go to Turnbull or Hockey or someone else?]

    More than likely Scott Morrison. Cannot remember the journalists name but they said he is the new breed who is extremely impatient.
    The pool is shallow indeed.
    Perhaps they will parachute Brough in.

  10. [blue_green
    Posted Wednesday, September 29, 2010 at 9:30 pm | Permalink
    Beazley lead from a marginal seat and Howards was pretty marginal in the end.

    I really don’t see why Frank is acting so childish and jealous about the Libs preselecting someone of obvious quality.

    I really think Frank is only happy with a one-party democracy
    ]

    Quality my rear end – The Libs wanted to steal the black vote from Labor – pure and simple.

  11. [In you Lancet piece you linked to I was expecting a rigorous scientific study on the issue of medical staff leaving 3rd world countries. But it was an OpEd piece.

    A proper study would have weighed up the impacts of nurses/doctors leaving with the benefits of the remittances returning to the country.]

    b_g, from the article i sent you to.

    [Ghana lost over 500 nurses to overseas employment in 2000, three times the number from 1999, and more than double the number of nursing graduates Ghana produced that year.]

    remittances do not deliver babies, administer immunisations or dress wounds.

  12. [ blue_green
    Posted Wednesday, September 29, 2010 at 9:34 pm | Permalink
    Sorry Frank. I will no longer feed the trolls like you and Truthy any more.
    ]

    I’m not the Troll – you are the fool who believes in Fairytales.

  13. [Quality my rear end – The Libs wanted to steal the black vote from Labor – pure and simple.]

    frank, what the hell is wrong with you? you’re fast turning into that you claim to oppose.

  14. [Posted Wednesday, September 29, 2010 at 9:36 pm | Permalink
    Quality my rear end – The Libs wanted to steal the black vote from Labor – pure and simple.

    frank, what the hell is wrong with you? you’re fast turning into that you claim to oppose.
    ]

    Nothing is wrong with me – I’m not a dimwit who subscribes to News Ltd Fairytales.

    It seems that some don’t like the political reality being mentioned.

  15. [Perhaps they will parachute Brough in.]

    Latest I hears of the unelectable Brough was that he was doing a bit of ambulance chasing waiting for Slipper or Somlyay to fall under a bus. Peter Wellington issued a challenge to Brough by volunteering to run against him at the next election. A brough v Wellington contest would see Wellington win with daylight second.

  16. Remember Wyatt is in the WA branch of the liberal party, they make the unhinged one look like a fully stocked hardware store.
    Winnable seats are reserved for the good ol’ boys.

    I wonder when WA Lib pre selections were held? In NSW they were about 5 weeks before the election.

  17. Dee that was the reason Bishop was made Deputy Leader in the first place but so far she has been outrageously unable to come up to the required standard.

  18. John Reidy

    Yep. They haven’t even had the nous to qualify it by something like “Tony Abbott claims … this is the first for 70 years …”

    They are reporting his claim as fact. It’s shoddy reporting, at best. Or is it deliberate?

  19. [ John Reidy
    Posted Wednesday, September 29, 2010 at 9:40 pm | Permalink
    Remember Wyatt is in the WA branch of the liberal party, they make the unhinged one look like a fully stocked hardware store.
    Winnable seats are reserved for the good ol’ boys.

    I wonder when WA Lib pre selections were held? In NSW they were about 5 weeks before the election.
    ]

    In most cases 6-12 months prior to a poll.

  20. [Dee that was the reason Bishop was made Deputy Leader in the first place but so far she has been outrageously unable to come up to the required standard.]
    She is there as the ultimate token female that much is obvious. But trying to think from their perspective I thought, maybe, just maybe.

  21. [Actually, Turnbull is clearly setting himself up here. I’d put him as the favourite to succeed Abbott, if the latter loses the leadership.]

    Yes, I had Turnbull up there too, despite my misgivings about his judgement. But then blue-green reminds me of Morrison!

    I suppose we’ll have to wait and see what happens. I’m predicting (fwiw) that Tone’s support on the floor of the House will diminish pretty quickly. He lacks the skill base for the new circumstances, and he’s done his best to piss off the indies. HIs MPI today seemed to be a rallying cry to the party not to lose faith. I could be wrong, but he seemed pretty deflated in QT today, and continuing the theme from the last parliament, the opposition had no clear QT strategy except to remind those Labor defectors to the Greens that (OMG) Labor want action on climate change, and that Labor are pursuing a regional processing facility for AS.

    Will see what tomorrow brings.

  22. [Yep. They haven’t even had the nous to qualify it by something like “Tony Abbott claims … this is the first for 70 years …”

    They are reporting his claim as fact. It’s shoddy reporting, at best. Or is it deliberate?]

    It’s very shoddy. If someone claims something is provably false, it’s irresponsible to just repeat what they say under the guise of quoting them.

    I could say the moon is made of cheese and, unless it was to prove my possible lack of sanity, it would be irresponsible to have a story saying “the moon is made of cheese, says…”

  23. [Fess, the sun will still rise in the East]

    And will set in the west. Did I tell you there were two dolphins swimming underneath my hotel balcony earlier tonight? They were in tandem, it was perfect.

    [Did anyone notice the change in demeanour of Morrison on Q&A?]

    Bowen skewered him. The opposition aren’t going to get away with as much on Boats! as they did before.

  24. John Reidy @ 3457

    [Come to think about it, Antony Green excepted, what in federal politics has the ABC got right in the last 6 months?]

    The knifing of Kevin Rudd comes to mind.

  25. Trouble with the ABC is that when something is fact & newsworthy such as The Big Black Hole they give it a fleeting mention.
    Issuing a fraudulent statement didn’t even warrant a mention.
    Can you imagine if this was the ALP?
    The last month would have been saturated from pillar to post with negative press for the ALP.

  26. I’m not convinced Scott Morrison is leadership material. He certainly could make it to the leadership by virtue of being the last man standing, and he probably wants it one day. But I can’t picture it. Then again, I said the same of Nelson (although I bloody knew he wanted it, back when he was first preselected all those years back)

  27. [What’s $weetie doing these days, is he strung up in a hammock watching the world go by or is he working for a living?]
    Casual mailman at the Future Fund and spends the rest of his time on seek.com.au

  28. [It’s very shoddy. If someone claims something is provably false, it’s irresponsible to just repeat what they say under the guise of quoting them.

    I could say the moon is made of cheese and, unless it was to prove my possible lack of sanity, it would be irresponsible to have a story saying “the moon is made of cheese, says…”]

    radical left wing activists rally against lunar fermented curd theory, deny they are anti-dairy farming.

  29. [To Speak of Pebbles
    Do you think that the party would give Turnballs another shot?]

    If they think he can win, yes. They made themselves clear last time what happens when you go too ‘small L’ on them. And the ETS won’t be an issue next time.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 70 of 75
1 69 70 71 75