Morgan face-to-face: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from a sample of 1143, has Labor’s two-party lead at 53.5-46.5, using the more reliable method of allocating minor party and independent preferences according to the last election (Morgan is still using the preference distributions from 2007, but those from 2010 were not significantly different). This is down from 54.5-45.5 a week ago. Labor’s primary vote is steady on 40.5 per cent, the Coalition is up 1.5 per cent to 41 per cent and the Greens are down two to 13 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,392 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  3. I question the adequacy of the debate about euthanasia in Australia when it appears the full range of opiate drugs is restricted for treating the pain of terminal illnesses like cancer. We will readily debate giving drugs to end a patient’s life but the debate on the issue of giving these same patients diamorphine, or heroin, is missing.

    It is used in the UK for this purpose legally. I am not of a medical background so perhaps some PBers can impart some expertise on the subject. Is there a place for the medical use of this drug to relieve intolerable pain? I have been told it is the most effective pain relief for the terrible pain of last stage cancer. If that is so then are we possibly condemning people to tortuous pain to support a particular political policy on drug use? Is the discussion on this issue confined to the medical research journals?

    I am not yet of a definitive opinion on euthanasia. I am still examining the issue but for me it raised a question. If we are willing to end life to end pain and suffering why are we unwilling to use all the analgesics available to do the same?

  4. [Whoever and whatever you are, if you wish to join mature adults in here, try using specifics and not the usual broad meaningless gutter phrases you Libs are known for. Put up or shut up.]

    david, you don’t know who, or what i am. perhaps you should slow your roll while you’re ahead? 😀

  5. [TSOP:

    On twitter, the issue has assumed the hashtag of…you guessed it….#grogsgate! ]

    Aaaargh!

    Message intended: “We’ll find out who you are. Think twice before giving an opinion in future!”

    Which is funny, because I recall, earlier this year, News Ltd being furious with a proposal (which I too disagreed with) by then SA AG Michael Atkinson, to make it law that all political bloggers should have to reveal their identities (regardless of what they’re saying.) Of course, Ltd probably opposed it because said bloggers targetted would be anti-Labor bloggers – which is just patriotic. Had it been a Liberal AG proposing it, the idea would “have merit”

  6. [would you like me to use smaller words so you can understand them?]
    No, but if you could actually relate your comments to why we should legalise euthanasia it would help.

  7. [There’s no party line on this. I’m stating my personal opinion.]

    Not walking in lockstep with far left keyboard crusaders = blindly following the Labor party line.

    Don’t disagree with me, or you’re a lock stepping fascist!

  8. [There’s no party line on this. I’m stating my personal opinion.]

    psephos, fair enough. i still maintain that the avenues for abuse are such that resorting to murder is unnecessary, considering that murder is a crime and power of attorney is largely tested in civil, it might be a better idea to focus on closing the loopholes and problems in our system of adult guardianship first.

  9. Socrates
    I agree with euthanasia to a point. It is cruel to prolong a person’s agony when death is inevitable. This is what we do to ease our own conscience.
    However, my fear is getting the legislation right so it cannot be accessed for criminal advantage. OTH, we don’t want people going through that many hoops whilst in dire agony. So, in that sense, yes, I agree with Gillard’s sentiments.

  11. [how would you know how much i do or don’t support her? my mouse is sitting on a workchoices mouse pad sent to me from her office as deputy-pm. i mailed her and asked for one when she used to thrash tony abbott all day long in parliament. where’s that julia? is she coming back? you stick to your unconditional support, i only hand mine out per issue.]
    I’m only going by your posts here and I’m receiving two opposite messages re Julia.

  12. [No, but if you could actually relate your comments to why we should legalise euthanasia it would help.]

    1) i should decide when and how i die, not the government, not religious whackos, not the mob deciding on what is moral this week. this is important because otherwise i am not free. if medical procedures can be carried out against my will, to satisfy the feelings of others, am i free?
    2) see point 1).

  13. [I’m only going by your posts here and I’m receiving two opposite messages re Julia.]

    i know! it’s almost as if it depends on her stance per policy or something!

  14. [ I am not yet of a definitive opinion on euthanasia. I am still examining the issue but for me it raised a question. If we are willing to end life to end pain and suffering why are we unwilling to use all the analgesics available to do the same? ]

    Two things, briefly…

    First, terminally ill patients reach a point where the painkilling drugs cease to have any effect at the doses used. At that point, any increase in the dosage will only lead to cessation of life.

    Second, it is not just excruciating and unrelenting pain that is the issue for many terminally ill patients. For some illnesses, bodily functions break down. I’ve heard palliative care nurses talk about terminally ill patients defecating out of their mouths.

  15. [anony, not interested who you are, I repeat, put up with specifics. Difficulty for you?]

    i don’t really care, just trying to be nice. sometimes people attach a lot to their online presences. if i were you i’d look back at the thread, and possibly previous threads (crtl + f –> find my name) before you proceed down a dead end.

  18. Why are we not charging people who have unsuccessfully attempted suicide? I’m sure we would currently charge someone with assisting in a person’s wilful suicide – successful or unsuccessful.
    Hypocritical?

  23. [Second, it is not just excruciating and unrelenting pain that is the issue for many terminally ill patients. For some illnesses, bodily functions break down. I’ve heard palliative care nurses talk about terminally ill patients defecating out of their mouths.]

    sometimes people don’t understand that there are limits to medical care, as good as it is. i once worked with a gentleman who vocalised continuously about his desire to die and how much pain he was in. loudly, without pause. you can only imagine what it did to the ward. if only people opposed to euthanasia could visit and spend 8 involuntary hours listening to things like that, they might understand why it is a decision that should be left to the person.

  27. [sometimes people don’t understand that there are limits to medical care, as good as it is. i once worked with a gentleman who vocalised continuously about his desire to die and how much pain he was in. loudly, without pause. you can only imagine what it did to the ward. if only people opposed to euthanasia could visit and spend 8 involuntary hours listening to things like that, they might understand why it is a decision that should be left to the person.]
    Didn’t you know, anony, it’s God’s will.

  31. [ Didn’t you know, anony, it’s God’s will. ]

    Yes BK. But I wish when God works in mysterious ways, he’d try to avoid inflicting pain and suffering along the way.

  32. BH, maybe not but he is now writing story’s on the controversy he has created

    [
    THE Australian’s outing of political blogger Greg Jericho, better known as Grog’s Gamut, has unleashed a firestorm of protest on Twitter.

    By 10am today, hundreds of tweets had been sent under the #groggate hashtag, defending the federal public servant and his right to anonymity
    ]

    I reckon he is loving every minute of this.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/twittersphere-hit-by-storm-over-whether-political-blogger-had-a-right-to-anonymity/story-e6frg996-1225929874704

  33. [1) i should decide when and how i die, not the government, not religious whackos, not the mob deciding on what is moral this week. this is important because otherwise i am not free. if medical procedures can be carried out against my will, to satisfy the feelings of others, am i free?]
    Really? Well, I’ve decided now. I’m going to live to 100 and die on the nest. Now anon explain to me when and how you will die and how you will make that happen without suicide or euthanasia.

  35. BH

    I expect that like my ex twitter account,grogs was hacked

    It is relatively easy

    some fool would have gladly accepted the 30 pieces of silver

    🙁

    This is war, total war being waged by the myrmidions and the barrel of monkeys

  37. [Why are we not charging people who have unsuccessfully attempted suicide?]

    Thank goodness we don’t. I remember when I was suffering depression that I thought how much worse it would be to be treated like a criminal AS WELL. We’d only just finished condemning suicides to unmarked graves “outside the pale”.

  38. madcyril – Mumbrella makes a pertinent comment tho

    [But there’s a nother reason why this seems unwise. This year the Australian has fought a fierce (and admirable even if it has got c arried away at times) legal battle to protect the source of its stories about police terror raids.

    This behaviour sends out a confusing message to potential future sources. Exactly when will the Australian protect your anonymity? The paper would argue that it’s clear that it will protect you so long as you are its source. But for somebody weighing up whether they can trust it with the potentially career damaging move of leaking it info, it adds doubt. Why risk talking to the Oz when it outs bloggers?]

    The OO doesn’t have a leg to stand on with asking for protection for its sources.

    I reckon the law should now be that everytime ‘a source’ is mentioned in the limitednoos media or any other they should be fined. I insist that we know the name of every source from now on.

  40. By the way, it was reported when Julia moved into Lodge, that some shockjock described her home in Altona has a rathole. Does anyone know who it was?

  42. [Really? Well, I’ve decided now. I’m going to live to 100 and die on the nest. Now anon explain to me when and how you will die and how you will make that happen without suicide or euthanasia.]

    um, that’s why euthanasia should be legal, so i can do that. do you have trouble understanding written english?

    let me put it to you another way. it is very likely you will be in a position where you and your family will be making this choice. in general, as people live longer and die via management of chronic conditions, it will become more and more common. you may yet live to wish you had all options to choose from.

  43. Hi, my say 2210

    So glad you liked it. Email to whomever you like. As the first in 5 generations of my maternal family’s Oz-born children NOT born on a remote property or a temporary home in a hospital-less township, it’s always resonated with me.

    By any standard, Mary MacKillop was a great Australian among C19’s constellations of argumentative, outspoken, determined, political, social & union-activist bushie Giants, and respected as such by her political & educational contemporaries – but not by many of her male religious ones. I can see her on a stamp with the Oz coat-of-arms in the background – she had more in common with the ANZACS than the Holy See – but I can’t imagine her with a halo.

  45. It seems the media have the right to “out” but are rather precious about the State demanding they reveal their sources.

  46. BK

    I should have copied more of your blog. Sorry. I did understand the question.
    The point is that the law *was* changed, and it was just in time for me not to be made out a “criminal”.
    I think it might have been in Gough’s time or thereabouts.

  47. As a few people have pointed out on Twitter, the outing of Grogs identity is one thing. But the nasty part of the article is the implied threat to his job. i.e. the implication that he can’t do his job because he has shown some sort of poltical leaning. That public servants should somehow be utterly apolitcal. This is complete rubbish, as Grog has pointed out on his blog.

  48. [Is this correct? Secret ballot for deputy as well??]

    If the Libs have reneged on the agreement regarding pairing, then I think it’s better for the Government to also contest & win the deputy speaker position.

    Albo dropped a hint about this in one of his interviews over the weekend.

  49. People are euthanised all the time. Go to the geriatric ward of any major public hospital and it is almost certain that you’ll find at least one terminally ill patient being ‘encouraged’ to depart by being starved, and eventually dehydrated to death. It typically takes about a month before this slow torture produces its result. My 100yo Dad lasted nearly 5 weeks from the massive stroke that destroyed much as his brain, though not the pain registering parts. 🙁 The real joke is that this is termed ‘comfort care’.

    Contrast his experience with that of my dog who the vet quickly put out of his misery when the cancer progressed to the point of discomfort. Indeed, had he not done so the law would have been very severe on both of us. Dogs are protected and treated far better than people in this country.

    Having seen first hand several times just how miserable dying can be, I already have measures in place to quickly exit me stage left. I hope I’m still in a position to enact them if the time comes. Unfortunately, it might not be as easy on those left to clean up the mess as a quiet, dignified medical assisted end would be.

  50. BK, lizzie

    I’ve been trying to find out when the law was changed and whether it changed federally or on a state basis or both but it’s a public holiday in the ACT today so my go-to, the Institute of Criminology is closed.

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