The latest weekly Essential Research survey finds the two parties still gridlocked at 50-50. Both parties are up a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 45 per cent and Labor to 40 per cent – with the Greens down to 9 per cent. Both leaders’ personal ratings have improved slightly since before the election: Julia Gillard’s approval is down a point to 45 per cent and her disapproval down three to 37 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up two to 43 per cent and down seven to 37 per cent. However, Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is almost unchanged, up from 46-35 to 47-35. Fewer respondents now rate an election within 12 months as desirable – it’s now 43 per cent all, compared with 52 per cent supporting and 33 per cent opposed a fortnight ago – and there also fewer who deem it likely, although it’s still a clear majority at 59 per cent (down from 70 per cent a fortnight ago). More voters thought the media did a good (32 per cent) than a poor (23 per cent) job reporting the election and its aftermath, while Coalition supporters were found to be more likely to believe the media wasn’t fair to their side.
UPDATE: Some fine print reading from Bernard Keane in Crikey:
But in the wake of Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor deciding to back Labor, there’s now a much stronger party split on that issue, with 75% of Liberal voters calling for another election, compared to 65% a fortnight ago, whereas support for another election among Labor and Green voters has fallen dramatically, with more than 70% of Labor and Green voters not wanting another election.
[
I’ve heard Portsea is lovely this time of year.
]
As long as there are no Chinese subs offshore 😀
[ As long as there are no Chinese subs offshore ]
I’m hoping there are!
It says this:
NBN Fibre Bundled
NBN-2
Regular Down/ Up Speed – 25/2Mbps
Down/ Up Speed Until June 2011 – 100/8Mbps
Peak + Off Peak Quota – 100+100
Fibre Cost – $49.95
NBN Fibre Unbundled
NBN-2
Regular Down/ Up Speed – 25/2Mbps
Down/ Up Speed Until June 2011 – 100/8Mbps
Peak + Off Peak Quota – 50+50
Fibre Cost – $59.95
Here:
http://www.austech.info/australian-isp-discussion/43516-tasmania-iinet-nbn-access-adsl2-price-till-june-2011-a.html
Doesn’t say how much after June 2011.
Conroy indicated around $65 – $100 depending on dwnload limits and of course you should take what people are already paying for their current connections off that. We pay about $80 a month as it is.
What the person was referring to is the connection cost, not the actual subscription rate. I had thought it didn’t cost anything if you consented to them creating the infrastructure as they went past, but was told I was wrong. Just interested to see what the reality is.
[I just met with someone who claimed it’ll cost $5000 to be connected to the NBN. True?]
*facepalm*
This was one of those lies put out there during the election campaign. Some builders group said it could cost that to fully wire up a house to take advantage of the speeds. True that it might cost a bit to wire up a house, but 99% of households wont need to bother with that and will be fine with their standard Wi-Fi access points. Its really an edge case that doesn’t make a lot of sense.
The coalition pounced on this and showed even more that they dont understand the technology – assuming you must be plugged into the wall to get the speed benefits.
[The Shadow Minister for Immigration has just released these figures:]
Leak? Leak? Leak?
Er, no. Just a government pdf all can access. Talk about Attention-seeking behaviour in adults
Laocoon 65
[What is your view on regionalisation – something like the Whitlam Regional Development Corps (Albury-Wadonga, Orange-Bathurst) that Gus reminded me of last night?]
Mixed. They are not a panacea. There is no point putting people where the jobs are not. Urban services are expensive but, per capita, rural ones are often dearer still. So you may help the environment, but not the budget.
Whitlam meant well, but Albury (and Murray Bridge here in SA) still struggles for employment. Unless you also put universities, hospitals and a few government agencies in such towns, they struggle as soon as the construction spending is finished. The drift from country to city is a world wide phenomena, due to technological change. Lets not kid ourselves we can reverse it any time soon.
Changes like peak oil and climate change may acelerate this trend, unless the region in question has excellent acecss not dependent on car transport. Few regions do.
That being said, it is not wise to have an ideological view on this – each case should be judged on its merits. If an area has the water, resources, transport access and jobs, then by all means, develop away. The trouble is, such places are probably already growing anyway.
In my experience, the size matters a lot. You can get excelletn quality of life in regional cities of 100,000 to 300,000 population that have enough jobs. The ones much smaller than that are generally all dying, unless they have a new industry (eg mining) to create jobs.
Centralising existing regional services on a smaller number of larger centres does make good sense. Few politicians have the courage to say that town X should be allowed to wither and die, but sometimes that is exactly what needs to happen. the easiest way to do it woudl eb to amalgamate local governments. Beatty did this successfully in Qld in the late 90s, with little loss of votes. I often see cases of several councils in a region, all refusing to amalgamate, yet each Council’s main town slowly shrinking. If they joined forces at least one might be viable.
Bottom line: if you can’t base the regional centre on a new industry, good air, rail or port access, and/or a decent univesity, I doubt it will work.
vera
Posted Monday, September 20, 2010 at 3:30 pm | Permalink
“shepherdmarilyn
So no need for health and security checks then?
I’ve got compassion for refugees, Heck when Howie had them behind barbed wire for years I sent the govt my address and said I had a spare room, but we need to house them somewhere first while these checks are done.”
Vera , you bring commonsense , whereas shepardmarulyn brings delusion of that which never will occur or b allowed by all sensible oz peoples
[Doesn’t say how much after June 2011.]
Speed reverts to “regular” at the same price after June 2011.
I’d guess that they’ll wait to announce prices for 100Mbps until there’s a better idea of the rollout.
Itep:
The $5,000 figure comes from dividing 43 billion by 21 Million and x it by the average household size (2.6 people per household). i.e.
43,000,000,000 divided by 21,000,000 = 2,047.61
2,047.61 x 2.6 = 5,323.78
Therefore, Opposition meme is “$5k per household to connect to the NBN”
[cottMorrisonMP Dept of Immigration figures for August show 64.2% of detainees held for more than three months – up from 55% http://tinyurl.com/2epu9pl #fb 24 minutes ago via web]
Ah. Looks like he is simply tweeting the official weekly update from http://www.immi.gov.au/managing-australias-borders/detention/facilities/statistics/ with a bit of attached spin.
The increase in those over 3 months , of course, is due almost entirely to the decision (wrong in my view both ethically and politically) to impose a suspension on processing Sr Lankan(now lifted) and Afghani asylum seekers (reviewed on 8th October).
Results for Brendan Nelson
[“+opposition +leader +brendan +nelson +says” site:abc.net.au]
17,900 results
Using the method as outlined in previous post, Brendan Nelson (Opposition leader, 9 months).
17,900 results divided by 9 months = 1,988 results per month
Which compares to Kevin Rudd, 1,781 results per month
Thanks all. I had a feeling the figure I was being quoted wasn’t the truth but didn’t really know how to rebut it.
[What the person was referring to is the connection cost, not the actual subscription rate. I had thought it didn’t cost anything if you consented to them creating the infrastructure as they went past, but was told I was wrong. Just interested to see what the reality is.]
“Opt-in” and “opt-out” have both been discussed but the figure I saw for having to connect if it has to be done after the initial rollout was more like $300-500.
There can be an additional cost depending on how fancy a householder wants their internal cabling from the box.
ITEP now where did you get that 5000 from i am having it checked out with Mr. Bartletts office hopefully will know today.
[STOP THE MISINFORMATION ]
if i ever i think i should post something ITEP i find out first, just a couple of phone calls may do the trick
[Thanks all. I had a feeling the figure I was being quoted wasn’t the truth but didn’t really know how to rebut it.]
The “$5000” figure, itep, is the one that Abbott et al were bandying about on the basis of the claimed $43billion cost for the NBN divided by the number of households in Australia. In other words it was what they claimed the total cost of construction of the network would be per household, rather than having anything to do with the actual connection cost. The connection itself is free to the door.
http://www.immi.gov.au/managing-australias-borders/detention/facilities/statistics/
Oh for heaven’s sake, they are here, ready for anyone with a brain to look at.
I have them save to computer going back to most of this year.
http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/committee/legcon_ctte/estimates/bud_1011/diac/index.htm
And here for the world to see is all the other secret squirrel information – guess Scott boy doesn’t know how to use the net but I do.
I have been keeping an eye on these fools since the TAMPA.
For example, how many know that up to 2004 we paid to jail asylum seekers in Cambodia?
Sorry if this has been covered, I couldn’t trawl through thousands of comments to see but these results and issues are interesting in light of our own discussions:
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/europe/09/19/sweden.election/index.html?hpt=T2
[The connection itself is free to the door.]
(I should add, that, of course, despite getting the line free to the dwelling you will have to pay an ISP for the service)
The word is there is NO i reapeat NO fee for connecting to the new NBN
so please dont put thing like that here before asking the the ” horses mouth’
ltep
Posted Monday, September 20, 2010 at 3:21 pm | Permalink
Just searched the ABC site for the phrase:
Opposition leader Tony Abbott says
Result:
About 1,410,000 results
“A search for “Prime Minister Julia Gillard says” turns up 1.71 million results.”
order of Abbott/Julia ‘says’ , and how much is “cut” from each , and what was ABC politcal reporter’s “fair and unbalansed” intro as a “pre explain” to each says is materil
Thanks Rod. It might do the Government some good to ensure this is widely known. My meeting was with two others, one claimed it’d cost $5000 and no one would want to pay that. I said I thought it was free to the door and the other said “no it couldn’t be, there’ll be a cost”.
How long does a health check take and how come those who fly here are not subject to the same health check if they fly and they are not jailed to do it.
Jesus wept they only test for aids and do a chest x-ray mate. And no refugee has ever been rejected due to health problems because that would be illegal.
Sheesh, the rest of the world manages to do this without jails and so on and without treating people like criminals.
NBN access Tassie. Take yer pick’o OO claims:
# May 19, 2010 12:03PM Tasmanian NBN under $50: Primus
But THIS dead on midnight on the day of the Fed Election!
# August 21, 2010 12:00AM
NBN could cost households ‘an extra $3000’
[As the Prime Minister defended the NBN, vowing that connection of fibre to the house would be free, it emerged the government made a new cash injection into the project …
Ms Gillard clashed with Sydney radio personality Ray Hadley when questioned on whether it would cost between $2000 and $4000 to rewire his house to take full advantage of the NBN.
“You are simply not right to raise this fear of cost for people,” the Prime Minister said.
“That is not right, that is not what has happened. It is simply not true.”
Ms Gillard said people did not pay a fee to have fibre rolled out to their home but if they wanted to use the fibre they would pay a service provider.]
Check out the OO’s rather dodgy “reasons”, “experts” etc – buried well down the page!
Whom do you believe: the PM, or the OO baseless on the morning of an election it hoped Abbott would win despite the Newspoll results … perhaps helped by an NBN scare story?
[The $5,000 figure comes from dividing 43 billion by 21 Million and x it by the average household size (2.6 people per household). i.e.
43,000,000,000 divided by 21,000,000 = 2,047.61
2,047.61 x 2.6 = 5,323.78
Therefore, Opposition meme is “$5k per household to connect to the NBN”]
I think this needs to be pulled apart on several levels.
First, that is the total cost to build the NBN, which will be paid by business and household users. So the cost per household will be much less, perhaps half. More than 50% of use of telecommunications is commercial.
Second, that is the cost to build the whole network, not the cost to connect a household. Connecting fibre optic cable into a house is CHEAPER than connecting copper wire. The cost to connect a house onto the NBN would be LESS THAN $1000.
Third, this spending is over eight years. The total cost per year is less than $600 per household per year. People already spend more than that on their phone bills now.
Finally, the total cost won’t be paid by people, because the government carries the cost then sells off the network at the end. The net cost per houeshold will again be far less.
Hi Ron
I found a site for the amigos, getting ready for 2012 🙂
http://blogsforhillary.com/
[shepherdmarilynPosted Monday, September 20, 2010 at 4:11 pm | PermalinkHow long does a health check take and how come those who fly here are not subject to the same health check if they fly and they are not jailed to do it.
Jesus wept they only test for aids and do a chest x-ray mate. And no refugee has ever been rejected due to health problems because that would be illegal.
Sheesh, the rest of the world manages to do this without jails and so on and without treating people like criminals.]
Blood Tests for HIV take some time you know, plus security checks .
Multiply it by the number of people on your average boat and you might have an idea.
Get a clue instead of relying on Green Talking points
Thanks Socrates…read someting that said A-W target population back in the 70s was 300k, but actually now it is only around 100k, so hard work.
Googling a bit on this I found Whitlam’s 1974 election policy speech. What a content rich speech it was. Alas with, amongst other areas…
[One of my first actions was to confer with the Premiers of NSW, Victoria and South Australia on the functions of the River Murray Commission, which have been virtually unchanged for 60 years and which are now quite inadequate to safeguard the urban and rural users of Australia’ s greatest waterway.]
http://whitlamdismissal.com/speeches/74-04-29_policy-speech.shtml
I am not sure searches like that are of much use in the bias debate. They are smilar to that bizarre study The Drum published from some loony Lib that counted a JG anouncement of policy as positive coverage for Labor but an announcement by TA as negative coverage for the Liberals.
Speicifc examples such as the Morrison comments, RN after the Rooty Hill debate and the reporting of the 2PP count change are of more use.
Onya my say!
Here’s today’s Townsville Bulletin (NewsLtd)
[The NBN has already been rolled out successfully in Tasmania, where retail service providers Iinet, Internode and Iprimus already offer access to broadband via the Federal Government-installed fibre optic cabling.
According to Ms Griffin, NBNCo is still yet to confirm a standard national wholesale price scheme for the network, with prices in Tasmania charged on an interim scheme.
“We know that it needs to meet the market and it has to be competitive with what people are currently paying for their service,” she said.
“It will be different to some degree, purely because the Tasmanian wholesale price has been set on an interim basis, so it’s not a final price.]
http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/article/2010/07/13/153881_news.html
James
“The $5,000 figure comes from dividing 43 billion by 21 Million and x it by the average household size (2.6 people per household). i.e.
43,000,000,000 divided by 21,000,000 = 2,047.61
2,047.61 x 2.6 = 5,323.78
Therefore, Opposition meme is “$5k per household to connect to the NBN”
With this methodology , I’m suprised that Libs 11.6 billion black hole was not greater
Unfortunate for th Libs , govt never said they’d recover building cost of NBN from tax payers , but instead wuld use Govt funding methods incl in time app 40% to investors
So there calcs did not even pass first hurdle of where money is coming from
[Why?]
Okay when Gillard drops into negative numbers that means the voters want a new election.
Have a look at the mess NSW is in with an out of touch government that can’t be forced to a new election.
Laocoon
Yes that illustrates how hard it is. It all depends on access to jobs. In the time since Albury planning was done, the Gold Coast has grown from 200,000 to over 500,000, while Cairns, Townsville and the Sunshine Coast would all have grown well past Albury (Sunshine Coast approaching 300,000 now).
So the message is clear: regional development does happen, where there are good transport links, jobs, and if people like to live there. Governments can’t change that.
How long before the unhinged one or his odious sidekick Morrison ascribe the death of the Villawood detainee to the government and its AS policies.
Even though the unfortunate person in questio was not a boat arrival, he’d only been in detention from August and had his case exhaust all legal avenues.
simple call to the Premiers office and the answer phoned back in around 7 min well as long as it took me to peel the potaotoes that is.
must tasmania may be.
So hang on let me get this right, it’s Abbotts fault Labor lost 17 seats and not more?
I don’t get this argument that Rudd and Labor did such a stunning job in government and thats why they only lost 17 seats and had their first term PM stabbed in the back by his own party.
It leaves 2 options:
1. The Rudd Government was absolutely useless
2. Tony Abbott is the best opposition leader in living memory
@ OzPol Tragic 124
The stupid and misleading stories run by the News Ltd lackies are quite apalling when you consider Foxtel or Telstra will wire up your place for free or at worst apply a minimal installation cost when connecting to cable net or tv. I believe fibre will be exactly the same sort of proposition. It’s a pity JG couldn’t have come back at Hadley with that information, she did try with the service provider comment but it was lost in the overall message.
cheers
[Blood Tests for HIV take some time you know, plus security checks .
Multiply it by the number of people on your average boat and you might have an idea.]
Mmm, yes Frank, but do we undertake HIV tests of everyone who arrives in Australia before we let them loose amongst the general population? Of course we don’t.
Does it take us months to decide whether to let anyone who wants to step on a plane land because they might be a “security risk”? No, of course we don’t.
This sort of explanation is simply window-dressing for the general process of deterrence to asylum seekers arriving by boat. It doesn’t have any real purpose. It doesn’t make “our borders” or “our people” one jot safer in real terms.
Watch out Obama she’ll put a spell on you 😆
http://www.smh.com.au/news-wire
Truthy, I thought half the reason Townsville Tories dislike Bligh is because she went to an early election and won.
[Tony Abbott is the best opposition leader in living memory]
Unfortunately your memory is extremely short. 😀
TTH @ 132
[Have a look at the mess NSW is in with an out of touch government that can’t be forced to a new election.]
We had an election in NSW back in 2007. Remember? You Libs had your chance, but dropped the ball. You can’t keep on holding elections until your side gets the result you want.
Back in March ’07 the NSW Opposition under Debnam was totally unelectable – and the punters knew it. Hence, the Libs got creamed. Now that the Opposition under O’Farrell is clearly more popular than the govt, you want a do-over. Sorry – you get one bite of the cherry every 4 years. You’ll have to wait until March next year.
“”It will be different to some degree, purely because the Tasmanian wholesale price has been set on an interim basis, so it’s not a final price.”
wholesale price is to be STD , so at this point an interim price in needed
[It will never changed until we have non partisan approach from all political parties. As long as the AS issue can be used as a covenient political football by the parties and the MSM, it’s just blowin the wind.]
And when you say NON-PARTISAN of course you mean the leftwing minorities view on the subject.
The Pacific Solution was the only non-partisan policy on boatpeople and had the support of both the Labor Party and Liberal Party when introduced but the left haven’t stopped moaning about it ever since.
[How long before the unhinged one or his odious sidekick Morrison ascribe the death of the Villawood detainee to the government and its AS policies.]
Not much longer that nothing flat? Unless they’ve gone on Spring Vac too.
[2. Tony Abbott is the best opposition leader in living memory]
Truthy, the Rabbott must be the best Opposition Leader Ever because nobody was game to stand against him in the party room. Once the Liberals used to stand for competition now they stand for whatever Tony says.
[Truthy, I thought half the reason Townsville Tories dislike Bligh is because she went to an early election and won.]
No it’s because weeks after the election she scrapped fuel subsidies and jacked up rego fee’s 30%.
Thats what you call deceiving the voters.
Anyone seen Sloppy lately?
Only in America, eh? Thanks Vera.