D-day plus 1

As you can see by the threads below, there are five seats still in doubt as far as I’m concerned, though it’s not unknown for outsiders to emerge on the radar late in the count. In post-redistribution terms, Labor has lost Bennelong, Macarthur, Macquarie and Gilmore in New South Wales; Bonner, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Herbert, Leichhardt and Longman in Queensland; Solomon in the Northern Territory; and Swan in Western Australia. In Victoria, Labor gained McEwen and La Trobe and lost Melbourne to the Greens. Also in Western Australia, as a notional count conducted late in the evening has made clear, Wilson Tuckey has lost O’Connor to Tony Crook of the Nationals, who has promised to sit on the cross-benches rather than join the Coalition party room.

This produces a base result of 70 seats for Labor and the increasingly complex beast known as the Coalition (42 seats for the Liberals, 21 for Queensland’s Liberal National Party, six for the NSW and Victorian Nationals and one for the Northern Territory Country Liberal Party); one seat for the non-Coalition Nationals WA; one for the Greens; and three independents. Of the five seats in doubt, as many as four could go to the Coalition (three to the Liberals and one to the LNP), with the other being the contest between Labor and an independent in Denison. Labor’s best case scenario involves an independent in the Speaker’s chair and a bare majority on the floor (with Adam Bandt of the Greens as a further safety buffer). At the other end of the scale, a loose arrangement with Tony Crook could allow the Coalition to achieve something similar. In between are various scenarios involving a collective kingmaker role for Tony Windsor, Bob Katter and Rob Oakeshott. The best guess at this stage is that the four Labor-versus-Coalition undecideds will break two-all, while Denison is impossible to read.

One imagines the independents’ most pressing concern would be the deep conservatism of the electorates; however, Labor has in its hand the prospect of Labor-Greens Senate majority that would complicate any Coalition claim to offer the greater stability. If a minority Coalition government eventuated – and this intuitively seems the most likely outcome – it would presumably be keep to set up some double dissolution triggers with an eye to another election about 18 months down the track. For the time being it would have available to it the existing Senate configuration until the middle of next year, in which it could pass legislation provided it had the support of Steve Fielding and Nick Xenophon.

Which should give you all plenty to chew on. This thread is for general discussion of the situation: I ask, more in hope than expectation, that emotional and rhetorical overkill of one kind or another be kept to a minimum. If you wish to discuss late counting, please do so in the thread below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,480 comments on “D-day plus 1”

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  1. Assuming the seats in the balance go to whever is in the lead (and ignoring Denison as too complex). My guess on the earlier “prediction” thread (post 10) gets 146 right out of 150.
    I missed Robertson, Greenway, Bonner and Brisbane. not too bad, did anyone do better?

  2. What a mess, I can’t see any side forming “stable” govt. I suppose the real game now is trying not to be seen as the party that caused an new election.

    Always a bright side – Wilson is gone. πŸ˜†

  3. If the Coalition win will this be the first election since federation that the party of government do not win a majority of seats in New South Wales?

  4. [So if the ind/green say they are happy to work with either side, is the final decision up t the GG?]

    The final decision is up to the HoR members and a confidence motion.

  5. If we are going to have a mess I’m thinking let it be led by Abbott. Let’s see if he can stop the boats (all bar 3 per year – what a joke) and let’s see him allow fishing in marine parks and let’s see him meet all of his spending commitments.

    I wonder when the linesmen will be send back to Townsville to remove the NBN cabling that was being rolled out. That will send an interesting message to the electorates that now have luddites as local members.

  6. So how will the indies be “persuaded”.

    Katter – infrastructure, ban banana imports.
    Crook – royalties for regions
    Oakshot – NBN, hospitals.
    Bandt – carbon tax
    Windsor – Speaker?

    Very tricky for the Libs.

  7. Bandt said last night he would support labor.

    He didn’t say so but there would be a price.

    Abbott will not get things his own way either πŸ™‚

    Windsor – Speaker?

    I hope so

  8. So its 70/70 (69 for LNP if you exclude the crossbencher, but surely he will side with Labor). Surely alot depends on who wins in the 5 undecideds. Glad to see both Age and Herald Sun here play it evenly

  9. dave Hasluck a chance on postals as is Denison. Its HIGHLY unlikely, but we have ALP on 75 if it wins all, needing Bandt alone who would support Labor. Even winning 73/72 would give ALP a seat edge that would help in negotiations

  10. dave, I had an evil thought (never going to happen of course) that the indies would want to know the true nature of the budget prior to deciding, requiring treasury analysis of the costings!!

    I still cant believe that Abbott got away with costings errors that would usually have sunk an opposition campaign

  11. I think the independents will have many plusses to score to Julia.

    The biggest one would be a fair go for our first woman PM.

    The MSM clearly provided a tailwind for Abbott.

    I think most greens would agree.

  12. Yea Andrew. No winners. Whoever forms government looking to call a DD as soon as they can.

    I hope Gillard stays Labor Leader. Abbott will of course for the Libs.

    BTW – Ghost who Votes – many thanks for the early Poll data over the election campaign – most appreciated. πŸ™‚

  13. As rua noted, at least Wilson is gone.

    On the other hand, I can’t see Gillard and Swan surviving in the long term, having brought the party to the brink of disaster less than three years after the triumphant defeat of John Howard.

  14. Posted Sunday, August 22, 2010 at 7:21 am | Permalink
    So its 70/70 (69 for LNP if you exclude the crossbencher, but surely he will side with Labor). Surely alot depends on who wins in the 5 undecideds. Glad to see both Age and Herald Sun here play it evenly

    Andrew and dave thank you for helping through last night.

    my feeling is we will get there with the help of greens and wilkie do you guys agree wilkie would never ever go with the libs re the weapons of mass destuction and his run in with howard.

    i emailed him this morning he has a shop in hobart. i dont expect to hear back from him of course but i have been to his shop a few times he did a bit book launch for an afgani boat family the young man wrote a book, and Mr. Wilkie and spent an hour chatting one day about the world etc.

  15. PJN 12

    The Sunday after polling is always a very busy day for the AEC.

    Checking and reconciling, preparing a very large number of absent, postal and pre-poll declaration votes for exchange and forwarding to all other division are major tasks.

    Divisional offices, especially the close seats, will get ensure all polling ballot papers and paperwork are in order and any discrepancies will be rigorously followed up.

    I expect there will be some limited counting, but don’t count on anything very significant. Yes, this can be annoying to some, but it leads to a smoother, faster and more accurate count in the broader term of things. ‘More haste less speed’ my grandma used to say.

  16. Dave, it also worth noting that of the 5 in doubt, all are Labor seats. Postals may favour encumbents although Smith pointed out that they went out in week 2. Ouch

  17. Looking at the sort of instability of when the Goss government fell to bunch of Conservatives propped up by One Nation. Bob Katter with the balance of power is an amazing concept for Australians to get their heads around.

  18. Dave i want Julia to stay on, i still have this hope in my heart she will be the one not the abbott
    so much at stake for alot of people.
    ir i could cut qld off the map i would

  19. [David_Speers

    Whoever forms govt has no real mandate. Will any of those campaign promises matter?]

    Very very true. truest thing speers ever said.

    Expect a bastard 10 months if abbot is pm, trying to get all the nasties (in whatever form they now take) through the senate first.

    Katter will be in a tight spot – he’s mr maverick, anti-canberra, fighting the power – now he’s going to be very much mr canberra and he can’t play his old game anymore. there’s no way he’d back labor though – his electorate would crucify him. all very interesting.

    embarrassed about queensland – i know all the big factors like the media/mining influence and right wing alp machine are debated, but you have to wonder about the anti-athiest whispering campaign too. it certainly played out at the church near me. these people should be on their knees thanking labor for their brillaint stewardship thru very difficult times.

  20. StephenD

    Labor will need a leader who is a strong parliamentary performer. Gillard, to me fits that bill. Also the leader is going to have to negotiate on most things – again traits of Gillard.

    Swan will remain Treasurer or Shadow Treasurer imo.

  21. [ Bob Katter with the balance of power is an amazing concept for Australians to get their heads around]

    dont you think bob katter would love to be speaker

  22. Good on you My say!

    I should too. He probably does read here, intelligence analyst and all.

    I wonder if he’ll recommend Rudd for foreign affairs?

    Or is that dirty talk around here?

  23. I’m not sure that Bob Katter would even turn up when needed. When he was in the Queensland parliament he used to be out by days with meetings he was supposed to attend.

  24. [27 StephenD
    Posted Sunday, August 22, 2010 at 7:28 am | Permalink
    As rua noted, at least Wilson is gone.

    On the other hand, I can’t see Gillard and Swan surviving in the long term, having brought the party to the brink of disaster less than three years after the triumphant defeat of John Howard]

    i do not beleive it is their fault for one minute blogg here has been the biggest education of my life, it has to be those that give out the news nothing was told

    one policy i thought was wonderful for us was making reverse morgage safer i was so excited about that. and of course the polices for the young people.

    People with brains would of praised the reverse mortage as it helped people to stay on top of things and add to the economy. but i saw nothing in the press about it thas just one example.

  25. I thought Oakeshott’s comment that he would consider THE SENATE very telling, given it will be a Green BOP. I wonder which government would work easier with that?

    The tricky thing for Katter is that he has obviously run on an anti-LNP platform. Pointed out how bad “the country” had done under Howard last night. he is not a given to support LNP and may be pullled the other way by the others. I remember with Kennett alot of commentators assumed the indies from conservative electorates would support him, and they didnt

  26. [Dave, it also worth noting that of the 5 in doubt, all are Labor seats. Postals may favour encumbents although Smith pointed out that they went out in week 2. Ouch]

    In qld I got mine the tuesday after the election was called. Posted on Fri before the election was called.

  27. Apeman, what happened to the messages from BOTH sides that Qld was improving for Labor, and that the losses might be 4-5. Obviously the difference between a Labor win and a hung parliament. Are we talking a late swing?

  28. ANDREW i get the felling observing katter he would love the position
    for lots of reasons re the speak, and do you know he may make a good one

    in tasmania the greens in the end did not consider the amout of votes they chose the stable gov. but of course he libs never ask them but i very much doubt they would of come a that, its working ok so far and i think it will get better there is no sign of tension with Mckim in fact i think he is very good

  29. From Ninemsn

    Looks like Oakshott- using rationale of senate will back ALP
    The funny one is Windsor- I will will with everyone except Barnaby Joyce
    Katter- no point having power if you dont wield it
    Wilkie- dont consider me a greens patsy

    I stick by my last night stance- An ALP minority govt with 72 seats

    [Independents to back ‘stable govt’
    The independent MPs who are likely to hold the balance of power in a hung parliament say they’ll side with whichever party can provide the most stable government.

    One of the independents – NSW’s Rob Oakeshott – says that means they’ll have to take into account the make-up of the Senate, in which the Australian Greens are expected to reign supreme.

    Mr Oakeshott, who was re-elected to the seat of Lyne with a massive increase in votes, will be joined on the crossbenches by returning New England MP Tony Windsor and Queensland’s Bob Katter. All three were once Nationals.

    The Greens’ Adam Bandt will join them after winning Melbourne, and there’s a possibility independent Andrew Wilkie will too. The former intelligence officer – who ran on the Greens’ Tasmanian Senate ticket in 2007 – is tipped to take Denison in the Apple Isle.

    Mr Oakeshott told AAP on Saturday night he would meet with Mr Windsor and Mr Katter informally as soon as possible.

    “More than likely that will be Monday when we know the playing field of exactly what has happened,” he said.

    The three independents won’t necessarily side with the party that has the most seats or votes in the lower house.

    Rather, they’ll look at who could best deliver stable government “taking into consideration the make-up of the Senate”, Mr Oakeshott said.

    “I think that is going to be critically important in how we work through the question of what is the design of the next executive to best deliver outcomes for this country for the next three years.”

    He said he’d seek to speak to Mr Bandt and Mr Wilkie in the next 24 hours.

    Mr Oakeshott said Australian shouldn’t be wary of a hung parliament as it could actually deliver a “stimulus package” for democracy.

    Mr Katter told AAP he was “elated” with Saturday’s result.

    The three returned independents were “very good friends” and would work responsibly, he said.

    But the northern Queensland MP plans to wield any newfound power to get a better deal for his rural constituents.

    Both major parties had let the outback die, Mr Katter said.

    “Now the boot will be on the other foot, maybe, as far as I’m concerned.”

    “There’s no point having power if you don’t use the power.”

    Mr Katter said his “first responsibility” was to deliver to the people he represented “the right to survive”.

    To prove there’s no love lost between him and his former party – the Nationals – he said: “That right (to survive) was taken off them by 12 years of National party government.”

    Earlier, Nationals leader Warren Truss told ABC Radio that Mr Katter had reserved most of his venom in the past for the Nationals.

    He also declared the Kennedy MP was an unreliable parliamentarian who missed more divisions than he attended.

    Fellow independent Tony Windsor says he will be “quite happy to talk to anybody” when the final results are in, including other independents and Green MPs.

    But he cautioned everyone to be patient and “just breathe in for a while”, arguing that a hung parliament could be a “very good thing”.

    “The most important issue here is stability of governance,” he told the Nine Network.

    The only person he’ll refuse to work with is Nationals Senate Leader Barnaby Joyce.

    “I won’t be taking any advice from Barnaby Joyce on what I should do or shouldn’t be doing,” Mr Windsor said.

    Mr Wilkie said he would focus on the “public interest” if he was elected.

    “I’ll make a call on which party I’m confident will deliver a stable, competent and ethical government,” he told ABC TV.

    Mr Wilkie said he wouldn’t be getting cosy with Mr Bandt just because he’d been a Greens candidate in the past.

    “When I was in the Greens I was with the moderate end of the Greens and that places me about the centre politically,” he said.

    “It’s a place overlapped by the Labor left, the Liberal left and the Democrats.”

    The former intelligence assessor with the Office of National Assessment said he thought he was a 50/50 chance of winning Denison when the count was finalised.

    “It’s much too soon really for me to claim victory,” he said.

    Earlier, Prime Minister Julia Gillard acknowledged and congratulated the independents.

    “What we know from tonight’s result is there will be a number of independents in the house of representatives playing a role as the next government of Australia is formed,” she said.

  30. [Dave, it also worth noting that of the 5 in doubt, all are Labor seats. Postals may favour encumbents although Smith pointed out that they went out in week 2. Ouch]

    lets hope they where rusted on labor people

  31. My seats predictions were OKish, except for in QLD. But then again, I havent been to QLD since expo 88. They seemed like such a friendly bunch back then

  32. Of the indi’s Windsor & Oakeshott seem very level headed. Katter seems a good guy but I wonder if he might want more than any government could give him for his vote.
    The Green has indicated he would support labor to govern.

    Parliament to limp along until a valid DD trigger emerges in 18 months or so.

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