So …
• GhostWhoVotes reports Nielsen has Labor ahead 52-48, from primary votes of 39 per cent for Labor, 41.5 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens.
• The Australian reports the 2500-sample Newspoll we were shown two-thrds of yesterday panned out to 50.2-49.8, the decimal place being a feature of Newspoll’s final polling since about two years ago.
• Westpoll/Patterson Market Research has polled 400 voters in each of Canning, Hasluck, Swan and Cowan, putting the Liberals narrowly ahead in each: 51-49, 52-48, 52-48 and 53-47 respectively. Canning aside, where Alannah MacTiernan is clearly doing exceptionally well in narrowing down a 4.3 per cent Liberal margin, the figures point to a swing against Labor of about 2.5 per cent within a margin of error of under 3 per cent.
UPDATE: Newspoll state breakdowns show the shift they have recorded against Labor has been driven by a collapse in Queensland, where their two-party vote is down six points on last week to 42 per cent, and New South Wales, where they are down four to 48 per cent. This points to election-losing swings of 8.4 per cent an 6.2 per cent. And yet the poll also finds Labor climbing still higher in Victoria for a swing of 3.7 per cent, maintaining their 3.6 per cent swing in South Australia, and recovering four points to their 2007 level of support in Western Australia. After appearing to reverse her decline last week, Gillard’s disapproval has shot up five points to 43 per cent, almost equal with her steady 44 per cent approval. State results vary from plus-22 net approval in South Australia to minus-16 in Queensland. However, Tony Abbott’s disapproval is also up four points to 50 per cent, and his disapproval down one to 42 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-35 to 50-37.
UPDATE 2: Kevin Bonham in comments notes that the Queensland result looks very much an outlier, and if it was replaced with the state’s trend figure the national result would be 50.8-49.2 in favour of Labor. This of course would normally be rounded to 51-49.
UPDATE 3: While a nation waits in breathless anticipation of the result in Boothby, The Advertiser offers … a poll of Hindmarsh. This predictably has Labor well ahead, although the size of the margin – 62-38 from a swing of 7 per cent – is interesting.
UPDATE 4: Roy Morgan has done a very strange thing – recontacted the 187 undecided voters (fair enough) and Greens voters (huh?) from their recent poll to check if they had made up or changed their minds, and reassigned their vote choices accordingly. Their figures thus record Greens votes shifting to other parties, but not other votes shifting to the Greens.
UPDATE 5: A late situation report.
New South Wales. The final Newspoll has the swing at 6.2 per cent, and while this seems to be what Labor is bracing for in western Sydney, the result is well clear of what is expected statewide. Nielsen and Morgan both have it at 3 per cent. A swing of that size in Sydney alone would cost Labor Macquarie, Macarthur and Bennelong, and the expectation that these seats will indeed be lost has become almost universal over the past few days. There is also an emerging consensus that two further Sydney seats on much larger margins, Lindsay and Greenway, are being swept away on a late surge to the Coalition. However, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian suggests the backlash against Labor ends at the city limits. Robertson is rated “the only regional seat in NSW where Labor regards itself in deep trouble” (Gilmore evidently doesn’t count), and even there the result is 50-50. Labor is thus expected to retain Eden-Monaro, Dobell and Page, and if this proves wrong they can kiss the election goodbye. There would also remain the vague hope for Labor of a boilover in Liberal-held Robertson.
Victoria. Meanwhile, the swing to Labor in Victoria is at the very least holding firm: Newspoll has it at 3.7 per cent, Morgan at 0.7 per cent. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald quoted a Liberal source talking of a stronger-than-anticipated swing driven by “resentment in the southern states towards the almost-maniacal focus on western Sydney and Queensland”. Certainly Labor is expected at a bare minimum to win McEwen, and are generally rated favourites to take La Trobe. Beyond that pickings in Victoria are slim, though there are dim hopes Dunkley or Aston might prove a bolter. Conversely, Labor are by no means a foregone conclusion of retaining Corangamite, which looms as a must-win for them in every sense of the term. Labor are all but giving away Melbourne to Greens candidate Adam Bandt, who could find himself in a very interesting position over the coming week or two.
Queensland. Newspoll has set a cat among the pigeons by showing a lethal swing against Labor of 8.4 per cent and a primary vote below 30 per cent. However, this is sharply at odds with Nielsen’s 3 per cent and Morgan’s 4.4 per cent. Should it come in at the lower end of expectations, Labor could yet save quite a bit of furniture. I believe Peter Brent is overselling his point in saying “sophomore surge” means the Coalition is more likely to lose from a majority of the vote than Labor, but there’s no question this phenomenon warrants more attention than it has been given. At the 1998, members of John Howard’s class of 1996 facing re-election for the first time experienced an average swing 1.1 per cent lower than the overall swing in their state. Similarly, the 19 Labor MPs ushered into the Victorian parliament by the Steve Bracks landslide of 2002 out-performed the statewide swing by 1.4 per cent at the 2006 election. Should that pattern be repeated this time, it would be an enormous boon to Labor in Queensland where sophomores are defending eight seats, including six on margins of 4.5 per cent or less. Labor could thus be confident of holding back the tide in a couple of seats with margins under the statewide swing. The consensus is fuzzy about individual outcomes, with seemingly only Leichhardt and notionally Labor Dickson on everybody’s list. Most feature any or all out of Flynn, Dawson, Longman and notionally Labor Herbert. Speaking on The Drum, Annabel Crabb noted Labor had been surprised how little attention the Liberal National Party had been paying to Bonner, Petrie, Brisbane and Moreton, but of these it seems only Moreton is entirely safe.
Western Australia. The best guess is that Labor will suffer frustrating defeats in every WA marginal, with Canning, Hasluck, Swan, Cowan and Stirling all emerging in the 0 to 5 per cent zone on the Liberal side of the pendulum. The seat most likely to buck the trend is Canning, which speaks volumes for Alannah MacTiernan’s performance given its 4.3 per cent margin. Labor would still be holding out hope of an upset in Swan or Hasluck. The latter if not the former can probably be relied upon to closely track the statewide swing, which the late polls can’t agree on: Newspoll says 0.3 per cent to Labor and Nielsen says 4 per cent to the Coalition, while the result from Morgan’s small sample came in at 1.2 per cent to the Coalition.
South Australia. Newspoll has the Labor swing in South Australia at 3.7 per cent, which seems on the high side, but we also have an Advertiser poll for the seat of Hindmarsh putting it at 7 per cent. That should make both Sturt and Boothby highly winnable for Labor, but there is a near universal view that Christopher Pyne’s expensive campaign for the former has paid dividends. Boothby on the other hand is expected to go down to the wire.
Elsewhere. There is limited local polling data available, but it is very widely expected that Darwin-based Solomon will be lost to Labor. In Tasmania, a big ticket campaign promise earlier this week suggested the Liberals have not given up on Bass, but most expect Labor to again obtain a clean sweep of the state’s five seats. Certainly they can afford nothing less.
[Anyone get a free sausage at their booth today? First election I’ve been to where I haven’t got one. And I’ve voted in 5 different electorates.
Devastated.]
Vote early, vote often!
Oatley West Public, not Waste Public!
wtf was I thinking?? The libs are getting to me with their BER waste mantra
[you should have thought better before executing Kevin… With Rudd, you might have won today.
Violin accompaniment is mandatory for Tories pushing this lsong.
[I have been away for a while. Can anybody give me a summary of the feeling, whispers, rumours, exit polls or word from the booths?]
As a wise man said “Your opinions are only as good as your information.”
Our information is crap at the moment. You can draw the obvious inference.
Haha. I meant in my life Ive lived in 5 different electorates.
[With Rudd, you might have won today.]
and with Turnbull you might have won today!
i was imagining someone in QLD not having a baseball bat and taking a pink batt to the polling booth and whacking the labor member over the head.
Four times the unhinged one has said “our thoughts and prayers” in the space of 15 seconds with respect to the losses and injuries in the ADF. Fawkner did not mention prayers and was extremely sad and respectful about it all.
another wise man said “opinions are like arseholes. everyones got one.”
With Brendon Nelson you might have won today.
MM
and some are one’s
[With Rudd, you might have won today.]
Has counting finished already?
Spoke to a former work colleague who is HTV-ing at my local booth (in Kingston). Said he’s never seen people so determined – in that they’ve well and truly made their mind up – and not many HTVs being taken (from anyone). Not entirely sure what that means. Rishworth should be home in Kingston; of course the battle lies elsewhere.
One of Aelaide’s leading real estate agents and auctioneers, handing out for the Libs, bought me a cappucino at the polling booth today.
Should I have accepted it?
Just voted – a mixed bag in a safe Liberal booth.
I did comment that we must be in on of the 97 per cent successful BER buildings.
ABC24 cross from Hasluck looked worrying – a sea of Wyatt posters and nothing Labor in sight.
[Possum Comitatus
Posted Saturday, August 21, 2010 at 1:34 pm | Permalink
blue-green,
‘All over the place’ best sums it up.]
Thanks Poss. If you can’t stitch together a clear picture then no one can.
By the way, best of luck with a job search. Let us all know how it goes.
i reckon HTV’s, volunteers and party members shouldn’t be allowed within a kilometer of a booth.
blue_green:
[I have been away for a while. Can anybody give me a summary of the feeling, whispers, rumours, exit polls or word from the booths?]
Labor Supporters: OMG its the end
Lib Supporters: HAHAHA, you Labor n00bs will lose.
Green Supporters: Yay, balance of power
Sky News: 60%TPP to libs, NSW total disaster, all hail Abbott.
Some ABC24 Reporter: “Former Prime Minister… oops, i mean Primer Minister Julia Gillard blah blah blah”
@Toorak Toff
Of course you take the coffee, it’s a tax deduction.
[three large posters in bold red were on the fence claiming, “Today the Government borrowed another $100 million”. It has no written and authorised by although it does list the printer.]
Same posters in the ACT, libs believe rules don’t apply to them.
[One of Aelaide’s leading real estate agents and auctioneers, handing out for the Libs, bought me a cappucino at the polling booth today.
Should I have accepted it?]
Yes, TT – AFTER you had voted against his Libs!
[Has counting finished already?]
The only lead the LNP will have is until polling closes! So they’ve got to enjoy it will they can (hence the euphoria on their ABC and SlyNews today)
Just like I can run 100m in under 10 seconds just until someone starts timing me 😉
Is it just me, or has the media been running for Tones 24/7 for the last three days?
If Gillard scrapes home tonight – there will be a reckoning folks.
…Oh be still my quivering keyboard… only a few hours my pretty….
[I have no idea why South Australian ALP are holding out for Sturt. It is a lost cause. The coalition have more chance of snagging Beasley’s old seat in Brand. The markets put Sturt at 18% for the ALP and Brand at 23% for the Coalition.]
Mick Wilkinson puts his faith in the markets like all Libs when it suits him. given the market is god argument how do you then explain the ALP as favourite to win? There is a clear disconnect in your diatribe.
[thought better before executing Kevin]
Isn’t it marvelous how these highly emotive words have become stock-in-trade for the Liberals.
Kevin Rudd was asked to stand down and he did so for the good of the party. The media hacks and rusted-on liberals can spin it however they like. The disappointed like TP can hold a grudge for as long as they want.
The long and the short of it is our political parties can choose their own leader whenever they like. The timing can be seen as strategic (good or bad, depending on where you sit), but it is PAST history. Nobody died. No actual blood was spilled. Nobody even became unemployed — the former PM will still be a minister, just not leader.
Wake up to reality, please, before you keep using terms like ‘knifed’, ‘assassinated’ or ‘decapitated’ they are extreme exaggerations unworthy of thinking Australians (media not included in that term BTW).
Back from voting etc etc.
Seems we missed 2 big issues in Groom & Maranoa:
Abbott’s promise to scrap NBN, with the very significant negative impact on communication, education, health etc in areas with poor BB & mobile coverage (lot of outrage, I hear)
Abbott’s vocal support of miners/ mining & the rousing support Bob Brown, I’m told, received when he addressed a Downs/ Surat Basin meeting.
Given that Brown’s Senate Bloc is the only hope Downs & Surat Basin farmers have of saving their land from those with mining leases, why were there no Green booth workers?
To be honest, I’ve never seen a Green booth worker, or seen the local aspirant on the hustings, or been door-knocked, or letter-boxed during any election campaign. NEVER. Groom & Maranoa have large tree-changer populations who duly vote or preference Greens, esp in the Senate.
With the environmental & ag-impact of the coal & coal-seam gas projects, & Brown’s (& Sinclair’s) involvement – and that even small numbers can mean an extra Senate seat – how slack is the lack of campaigning & booth workers?
[thought better before executing Kevin]
As the late great Gary Bruce said, when is the state funeral?
i’m going to go and keep myself occupied….
and thats not euphemism for something!
[Liberal Party of Australia, since 1949, 42 years in office, 19 years in opposition,]
And 16 of those yrs have occurred in the last 27yrs – says alot about the recent Lib party
Jenauthor
Ah, but then again the Libs outdo us as always.
In this term of Parliament, they lead 2-1 on leader “executions”.
re KR “knifing” hangup – maybe the Libs are still smarting of how they really wanted to replace JWH with Costello so they could have ruled for longer?
Bk you mean the Libs still think it’s legal to buy votes? You should have accepted the coffee, then voted against them, then accused them of trying to buy your vote (& on the cheap too)
A measly cup of coffee for a whole vote? How insulting.
[Labor Supporters: OMG its the end
Lib Supporters: HAHAHA, you Labor n00bs will lose.
Green Supporters: Yay, balance of power
Sky News: 60%TPP to libs, NSW total disaster, all hail Abbott.
Some ABC24 Reporter: “Former Prime Minister… oops, i mean Primer Minister Julia Gillard blah blah blah”]
Ta Mithrandir,
What a bizzare, bizzare election?
ALP firmed from $1.45 to $.140 on sportingbet
BTW: Liberal booth workers wearing red!
was gunna say MM — I thought self flagellation was the latest euphemism 🙂
I dont understand how betting can be allowed at this late stage.
My dear ALP antagonists and inminent loyal opposition membersÑ
– Jenauthor: Yes, the Aztecs also offered human sacrifices. From what I gather, Kevin was a human sacrifice to those ghastly, unleashed NSW Labor Right hordes… well done.
– Darren Laver: Malcolm was simply too tepid… he connected too much with Kevin, and you see what happens when THAT happens… you are executed.
Luckily, with Tony Abbott, we have a VISION and a MISSION.
The VISION: a more prosperous, a fairer and egalitarian Oz.
The MISSION: Remove incapable blokes from making more mess out of anything… your little train promise in NSW is such a cliché.
Adios, ALP and Julia Gillard !
Victoria ignore everything Mick Wilkinson says, he knows jack sh-t and is stirring you up…hang in with the rest of us, the best is to come 🙂
blueskies
BOLLOCKS!!
Where is all this talk of a collapse in the NSW vote coming from? No counting has started and the margins are so small. How can they really claim that a swing is on?!!?!
You can bet until the polls close. If betting stopped when voting started then the betting would have stopped at beginning of prepoll or postal even.
Until counting you cannot have any insider info, therefore betting will close at 6 pm, I expect.
@BlueSkies, lol
Politicians are always in a mess.
[This is awesome:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQ_s6V1Kv6A& ]
Quite so. Watch it everybody, if you haven’t already.
@jenauthor – sportingbet has closed the market and they have no in-play betting. the figure you are looking at is the Victorian State Election.
Sportingbet ended at $1.45
[How can they really claim that a swing is on?!!?!]
They’re just making it up as they go along!
Just back from a 40 minute queue to vote – rained on the way, then cloud, then sun (why did I leave my sunglasses in the car?), then a sharp shower when I was in the unsheltered bit of the queue (after 30 minutes I was not leaving), Melbourne weather don’t you love it!
What struck me this time was how few HTV people there were (and except for the Greens) how old they were, all over 60. Shows the apathy and level of disengagement. Tried to check how many people had only one HTV – that Lib and ALP are the same colour doesn’t help – but would give it to the Libs.
GetUp were also handing out – a very thinly diguised HTV for the Greens.
Can anyone clarify what all this talk about exit polls is?