12.01pm. Actually really close in Brisbane – LNP only 0.2 per cent ahead.
11.35pm. Talk is of the DLP winning the final Victorian Senate seat, but it seems to me Steve Fielding isn’t out of the hunt. The DLP currently has its nose just in front of Fielding at the fourth final count. But if Fielding gets ahead, he’ll take their place. It’s also possible neither will win, and the last seat will go Labor or Liberal. What we’re sure of is two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens.
10.50pm. It’s been put to me that Labor seriously think they can cut a deal with the conservative independents in which Bob Katter becomes Speaker, because a) they wouldn’t want the double dissolution that would inevitably occur before too long under a Coalition minority government, and b) because Labor could argue they are better placed to deal with a Labor-Greens Senate.
10.23pm. When I compared those SA Senate results with the House figures, I recognised Bob Day probably wouldn’t stay ahead of the third Liberal at the second last count – and indeed, he’s already fallen behind. Likely final result: Liberal 3, Labor 2, Greens 1.
10.18pm. Looking grim for Wilson Tuckey – Nationals well clear of Labor in second place, only a 4.5 per cent gap to close over Tuckey on Labor preferences which I presume they’ll get.
10.12pm. Current SA Senate projection from ABC has Bob Day of Family First winning a seat: 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Greens, 1 Family First. Like the 2007 result, except with Family First in place of Xenophon. However, I should stress that early Senate projections can be wonky.
10.10pm. Alexander Downer and Bruce Hawker seem to know things the ABC computer doesn’t – the latter has Labor swing in Canning at 1.5 per cent, 2.8 per cent short of what they need.
10.03pm. Corangamite souring for Labor: now 50.0-50.0. Boothby now back as undecided with Liberal lead of 0.5 per cent.
9.57pm. None of the Perth marginal seats coming home for Labor.
9.53pm. And if you happened to see me on Sky News this evening, I do realise Neville Bonner was a Lib rather than a Nat.
9.52pm. Soon as I’d finished telling News Radio Wilkie would win Denison, Mark Arbib came on saying he thought different.
9.24pm. ABC computer calls Canning for Liberal.
9.23pm. ABC says Liberals have pulled ahead in Hasluck.
9.18pm. Antony hints Labor’s 0.5 per cent lead in Hasluck will widen as the next booths report two-party counts. However, it’s looking like a win there would be against a metropolitan trend. Don’t put any stock in ABC Stirling figures – obviously a gremlin.
9.14pm. 13.6 per cent swing to Labor in Stirling? I confidently predict that one will iron out.
9.12pm. Labor 0.4 per cent ahead in Hasluck after 6.1 per cent counted.
8.57pm. ABC computer calls Robertson for Labor.
8.55pm. Not looking good for Labor in Boothby.
8.53pm. ABC computer calls La Trobe for Labor.
8.50pm. I’m wondering if the Liberals ran some sort of awareness raising campaign in Denison explaining the virtues of voting for somebody else.
8.49pm. Stephen Smith sounding vaguely encouraged about Canning.
8.30pm. As you’ve all no doubt just learned, Andrew Wilkie might pull off an extraordinary win in Denison.
8.25pm. Christopher Pyne retains Sturt with swing of over 2 per cent.
8.23pm. ABC computer calls Corangamite and Deakin for Labor.
8.21pm. ABC calls Brisbane, Dawson and Longman for LNP.
8.16pm. Warren Entsch no doubt correct to talk of heartening swings to him in remote communities. These booths swung against the Liberals by up to 30 per cent when he retired in 2007.
8.12pm. Aston firming for Liberals. Huge swing in Wentworth to Turnbull, now the proud owner of a double-digit margin.
8.10pm. Last Senate seat in SA likely to be close race between Labor and the Greens; Liberals probably good for three seats.
8.08pm. Labor vote in Victoria right on three quotas, so Greens unlikely for Senate despite high statewide vote: probably 3 Labor, 3 Coalition.
8.07pm. Drop in Labor vote in NSW leaves Lee Rhiannon a big chance for the Senate.
7.58pm. Liberal swing in Lindsay has come in from 7.4 per cent to 6.9 per cent; Labor needs it to come down to 6.3 per cent.
7.53pm. ABC computer calls Bonner for LNP.
7.52pm. Bad sign for Labor that Stephen Smith is hanging hope on Hasluck and Swan.
7.51pm. Robertson has stayed lineball.
7.47pm. A very sharp PB commenter projects 75-76 seats for the Coalition.
7.42pm. Small swing to Liberals in Sturt.
7.41pm. 2.4 per cent counted in Boothby, 1.5 per cent swing to Labor, slightly short of 2.4 per cent required.
7.39pm. Labor ahead in Longman too – situation looking slightly less appalling for them in Queensland.
7.38pm. Moreton called for Labor too – some of Labor’s worst losses are subsiding.
7.37. Petrie called for Labor.
7.35pm. Scare apparently passing in Banks also, but ABC TV tells us Labor are behind in Lindsay. Antony says Labor ahead in Aston.
7.32pm. Scares for Labor in Blair and Capricornia seem to be passing. ABC computer not yet giving away quite a few Liberal seats in Victoria, but Labor only ahead in La Trobe and winning in McEwen.
7.29pm. ABC computer calls Bennelong for Liberal.
7.27pm. Banks would be a bolter – Stephen Smith sounding almost defeated in his call for WA voters to get their act together with half an hour to go.
7.25pm. Labor ahead in Petrie.
7.25pm. Page called for Labor.
7.25pm. Labor back in front in Moreton.
7.24pm. Lower than expected swing in Macarthur – Libs only just in front.
7.23pm. ABC computer calls Forde for LNP.
7.22pm. Labor only “ahead” in Capricornia – 9.0 per cent swing with 10 per cent counted.
7.21pm. Little doubt it seems about Eden-Monaro and Melbourne.
7.20pm. Stephen Smith encouraged by 1 per cent swing to Labor in Robertson.
7.18pm. Coalition “ahead” in too many Queensland seats for Labor’s comfort: Bonner, Brisbane, Dawson, Moreton.
7.18pm. Flynn and Leichhardt first gains called for Coalition.
7.17pm. ABC computer calls Dobell for Labor.
7.17pm. Liberals slightly ahead in Corangamite; Stephen Smith sounding a bit less confident than before, but still confident.
7.16pm. ABC computer says LNP “ahead” in Bonner and Brisbane.
7.14pm. ABC computer results lagging far behind television. From the latter, 10.7 per cent counted, Labor 0.6 per cent ahead.
7.11pm. Antony reckons Labor “ahead” in La Trobe.
7.09pm. Take it to the bank that Graham Richardson knows what’s going on: he says Labor are a “reasonable chance of delivering a very small victory”.
7.05pm. Big count in Blair: Labor hanging on.
7.03pm. Nick Minchin was sounding confident about Brisbane, but the swing on the ABC computer is only 2.8 per cent.
7.01pm. Labor looking good in McEwen.
7.01pm. Mounting trouble for Labor in Queensland.
7.00pm. Consistent swing to Labor in Tasmania – worth nothing to them.
6.53pm. Big swing in Blair – lineball.
6.53pm. Braddon called for Labor.
6.52pm. ABC computer has “LNP ahead” in Brisbane.
6.50pm. Solid swing to Labor holding in Braddon.
6.49pm. George Brandis expects current 6 per cent swing in Queensland “will come back a bit”.
6.48pm. 6 per cent swing in Queensland, but mostly from country areas.
6.25pm. Stephen Smith confident Labor will hold Corangamite.
6.05pm. Polling booths have closed. Live blogging of the type site regulars are familiar with on state election night will be conducted, and a CoverIt Live chat room facility featuring myself and other Crikey types will be added at 6.30pm.
TashBee, yes. Howard was behind Keating in ’96, Barnett behind Carpenter and Rann behind Redmond.
sertse – can u suggest a url for me? my sky news feed is crap – echoes, etc… sounds like a rave song
[First booth reports – Tangalooma Island Resort]
4.51% swing to Labor. 😉
The exit poll, conducted by Auspoll in 30 key marginal seats, showed the two-party preferred vote went 51 per cent to Labor and 49 per cent to the Coalition.
And a Nine Network exit poll of 30 marginal seats gave Labor a two-party preferred lead of 52 per cent ot 48 per cent.
OMG the nationals!! the nationals!!! call it now… they will win every seat on these numbers!!! 10000 national votes to 300 for the forces of good!
From Latika Bourke on Twitter
[
Labor source says tracking poll had narrow Abbott win but Galaxy exit is looking good.
]
my say: I do not wish to see any of the smug liberal mugs until I’m certain Julia is over the line and then I tune to watch them squirm. One of the fondest memories I’ve ever had from an election was watching that shredder shred Howard’s pic. It was pure sweetness and joy!
I’ll def be following here and posting, thanks guys… but tonite without Kerry and Anthony just feels wrong
Abc should just give Anthony is own channel, so we don’t have to see anyone else.
Also if I listen to rn breakfast on monday (after Friday)
‘Morning everyone. It’s 4 AM for my ass.
Tangalooma Island Resort is it Labor or Liberal?
If anyone says my pre-recorded interview on Sky later this evening – yes, I do know Neville Bonner was a Lib and not a Nat …
William,
Can we have some links to twitters to these sources please ? 🙂
my say
[last time i just stayed here cannot stand any of the people of the press]
me too, just trying to keep myself busy with other things, refreshing this page every few minutes to gauge the flow of things. 3 hours ago i was psychologically preparing myself for an abbott win, but things have improved massively since then.
god damn sky news for trying to create the lib bandwagon effect and freaking me out. god damn them to hell.
itep: oh crap. Okay then that figure means diddly then. Going back to stressing.
tokenyank, your a legend 🙂
Expat
Antony Green’s comments are highly respected here and likely to be quoted in posts very regularly.
Back from booth in Lindsay strong support for Labor all day there … it is a traditional strong ALP booth though. Rough estimate from all there as 60/40 + Labor
cheers
[Abc should just give Anthony is own channel, so we don’t have to see anyone else.]
LOL comment of the day so far!
brisoz Here is Latika Bourke
http://twitter.com/latikambourke
where have all the trolls gone?
@ My Say/ I’m with you…I have the tally room going as well, thats what the ABC are hooked into so for overseas friends who need the results here is the link
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/
Money pouring in on Coalition on betfair in last ten mins.
From last thread:
[That means Sportingbet is ALP to win $1.35 but has ALP only winning 75 seats by my calculations! Something still fishy going on there…]
Mod… the only bludger who knows about fish is me. there is no fishy or sushi anywhere here. if there is it would been chomped by me 👿
Anyone know what’s happening in Grayndler?
Apeman, they’ll wait until the Libs are in front before re-emerging 😉
[god damn sky news for trying to create the lib bandwagon effect and freaking me out. god damn them to hell.]
yes all of them
[I’ll def be following here and posting, thanks guys… but tonite without Kerry and Anthony just feels wrong]
expat you will get aBC24 on the internet
Yay – found Kerry! Thanks guys. Feel like I’m at home now…
By the way, overnight had a dream: god came to me and offered me 75 ALP seats inc Bennelong – take it, or take my chances on the nite. I didn’t hesitate…
Expat Follower: http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/ this works for you?
While the exit polls are encouraging (and would suggest this morning’s Nielsen was pretty close) I still wouldn’t be getting carried away tonight. Unless the Labor result is much better than expected, we may not have a clear result till postals are counted.
Expat Follower: did it come with a nice bow and some booze?
[I’ve been too busy to follow the exit polling properly. Would any good Samaritans like to give me a summary of the results of each?]
Bilbo, stop bludging on us
Tashbee – Tangalooma – only 42 votes – lat time it was liberal – but only 60 votes
I wouldnt worry about this one
[6.25pm. Stephen Smith confident Labor will hold Corangamite.]
:0
You better not be blowin’ smoke, Smith…
Sertse – no that one kicked me off, but http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/ is working
How come bets are still being accepted when the polls have closed in some states?
OMG 0.03% counted swing to libs of 1.2% 😉
Boundary Man: bugger. Okay back to worrying about everything else.
Paulj I think Abbott has the ability to unit the brothers .
ch10 exit poll says 10 seats gone in qld wiht 4 gone in NSW
@David, Centrebet is closed for me.
Red Kerry mentions there is no daylight savings this election to stagger the east coast vote.
The exit poll says ALP holding Greenway
?WTF?
vote count even.
First negative swing in marginals Bonner.05%counted swing against Labor -1.87%
Antony Green – we should start getting meaningful results in 15 minutes.
ABC24 was said to have the geo restrictions taken off.
I’ll see if i can find the link.
0.35% counted in Eden-Monaro, 3.83% swing to Labor on primaries. 1 booth 2PP, 7.02% swing to ALP.
3 booths in Eden-Monaro. So far 2pp is going our way.