Essential Research has come good with a final set of polling figures, and in two-party terms they’re no different from Monday’s, with Labor leading 51-49. Both parties are down a point on the primary vote, Labor to 38 per cent and the Coalition to 43 per cent, with the Greens up two to 12 per cent. The poll also gauges reasons for vote choice, whether respondents’ opinions of the leaders have gone up or down since the election was called (down in both cases) and firmness of vote, the latter confirming the impression of other polls that Labor support is “softer” than for the Coalition. I am also informed The West Australian will tonight publish a Westpoll that will show Labor trailing in Hasluck and Swan, but 50-50 in the race to nab Canning from the Liberals. Then there’s this from the Courier-Mail:
Labor began the campaign with a worst-case scenario of the Coalition winning 10 Queensland seats. But party sources now believe the loss could be contained to three Queensland seats. This comes as internal ALP polling this week suggests as many as eight or nine seats could fall in NSW. LNP sources confirmed that late deciding voters were opting for Labor in many Queensland marginals. The LNP’s only “almost certain” gains have narrowed to Leichhardt, Flynn and Dawson. But Labor sources dispute Dawson, where they say they have their nose in front. But they say the Brisbane-Gold Coast corridor seat of Forde would be “extremely hard” to retain. Labor also is worried about the bayside seat of Bonner and the Townsville-based seat of Herbert but is confident of holding Longman, Petrie and Brisbane.
My reading of the situation is that Labor’s position in Sydney seems to have soured over the final week, with the Parramatta-to-Epping rail promise looking like another tactical blunder that has succeeded only in shackling federal Labor closer to the state government. Bennelong is almost universally rated as lost for Labor, Lindsay will probably go too, and there might even be trouble for them in Greenway. However, the picture elsewhere seems to be as it was the other night when I made my prediction of 79 seats for Labor, which included Bennelong and Lindsay, plus one for the Greens – although there is now also the question of whether Longman MP Jon Sullivan’s self-inflicted wound will prove fatal. But there are more than enough seats in serious doubt one way or the other to make the situation very unclear. Martin O’Shannessy of Newspoll was quoted in The Australian today saying the “rusted on” vote at the current time is about 10 per cent lower than usual at about 60 per cent. The Australian’s Samantha Maiden offered that “an estrogen-fuelled surge of female voters has been cited as the secret weapon Gillard can count on to fall over the line”.
Finally, the Australian Financial Review has gone to the effort to check meteorological records on election days throughout Australian history, presumably to investigate the notion that a winter election might pose dangers for Labor in particular. However, what they found was that “70 per cent of federal governmetn defeats transpired when polling day – in autumn or summer – dawned dry across the country”.
Can only pop in for a minute but let’s just say that I was heartened at prepolling today. Good response for Paterson and confirmed by the Lib blokes being snarky and whiny today.
Quite a few BLOKES! said to the Libs they’d vote for Baldwin but don’t want Abbott so took our sheets instead. How about that!
Libs ended up telling me again that they wished Joe Hockey was leader.
What does all that say? I don’t know, but as I go and pack my boxes for tomorrow I’m sort of singing softly. I hope by Sunday I’m outside on the top of the hill singing loudly.
The Drum at 6pm: the state of play with Sinodinos, Loosley, Uhlmann and Crabb.
Centrebet has ALP firming point by point.
Abc special, full of right wing fruitcakes, excluding Howes to a degree but in general this guy does not have much of an idea either.
Tony Abbott and his rabble of miserable sociopaths will be rubbing their hands in glee looking forward to selling this country out and taking their revenge out on the defenceless!
And they will have gotten there because a bunch of toothless bogans don’t like the idea of sharing their neighbourhood with darkskinned people.
abbott supports manly go parra!
[Yeah, I tend to think its unlikely]
If Paul Bongiorno is confidant he should put $100,000 on Abbott and net himself a cool $160,000
Is that Paul guy from Ten the first journalist to predict the Coalition to win? Most are hedging their bets or predicting a slim ALP victory.
This is for my say
My say – the number in the House of Reps is 150 seats Currently (or up until now) the members have been:
ALP – 83
Coalition – 63
Independent – 4
In order to get a majority in its own right, the ALP needs to win 76 seats.
That’s all you need to remember.
[Is that Paul guy from Ten the first journalist to predict the Coalition to win? Most are hedging their bets or predicting a slim ALP victory.]
Yeah. Even Dolly and Minchin on the radio today said the Tories were unlikley to get enough seats.
224 marky marky
[If Labor loses this election, than they would have in the space of three months ruined two leaders.]
This was said in 1983, just prior to Labor’s five terms in government.
[The Drum at 6pm: the state of play with Sinodinos.. Uhlmann and Crabb.]
Oh good, all our favourites!
leftwingpinko@261
And with Canning on 50/50 I hope Lannie gets up.
to speak of pebbles,respect ! totally in agreement .
In 1983 their was a recession and Hawke was the leader. He was well liked and furthermore Labor was in opposition.
BH – Good to hear that.
All the best for tomorrow and Good onya 🙂
How I miss Kirribilli Removals. 🙁
Now some serious money (near $30k) coming for labor on betfair, expect they’ll start about $1.35-$1.4.
David Penberthy tipped a Coalition win.
BH,
That sounds very good. Go Arneman!
I’m packing my kit as well- then early to bed as possible!
I just tipped a labor win. Again.
,[ at this point I am a realist. Let’s face it. We’ve hit a wall and it doesn’t look good. This late in the game there is nothing you can do about it. Despite all of the reassurances in here from the echo chamber, we have to face facts and I have to be realistic in my prediction and revise as such. So, with a heavy heart I think the ALP will only get 140 seats tomorrow… (I’m almost ]
pebbles please be serious i cannot stand jokes at the momen
140 seats is all the house
[David Penberthy tipped a Coalition win.]
Wasn’t he at the Daily Tele?
Paul Bongiorno from Channel 10 is one of the good guys. He gives labor a good run and is entitled to his opinion.
There are far far worse reptiles in the media than bongiorno.
[Even Dolly and Minchin on the radio today said the Tories were unlikley to get enough seats.]
Well, that’s it then – all over. We all know how honest and honourable they are.
260 Rox
Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 5:48 pm | Permalink
This is for my say
My say – the number in the House of Reps is 150 seats Currently (or up until now) the members have been:
[ALP – 83
Coalition – 63
Independent – 4
In order to get a majority in its own right, the ALP needs to win 76 seats.
That’s all you need to remember.
rox so scared thank you will be out at old beach tomorrow 10/ 12
if your out and about come and say hello
perhpas a coffee if you like
good always wins over evil dooers we have to think positive and pray
thank you for leaving this for me
Yes, George – he is now editor of The Punch.
[Wasn’t he at the Daily Tele?]
Yes. That paragon of noble journalistic truth seeking. Not!
@Allan/276,
All over for who?
[One day before the Federal election the ALP primary vote is 38% (down 5.4% since the 2007 Federal election), the L-NP 42% (down 0.1%), the Greens 13% (up 5.2%) and Independent/ Others 7% (up 0.3%). On a Two-Party preferred basis the ALP (51%) is ahead of the L-NP (49%) – a swing of 1.7% to the L-NP since the 2007 Federal election according to the latest 7News Morgan Poll of 1,872 electors conducted on the evenings of Wednesday and Thursday, August 18/19, 2010.]
🙂
Steady Allan – Labor WILL WIN. We will get there!
Ron
I posted Julias actual words you moron.
@my say,
I still say 80 seats, but if NSW is bad, may just over line.
Thanks ruawake
How does that compare to the last comparable Morgan?
[There are far far worse reptiles in the media than Bongiorno.]
Very true. In fact I wonder if he is playing at a bit of ‘reverse psychology’ here?
The reporter on News Radio following the PM said Gillard carries the hopes of the ALP for the next 10 years on her shoulders. Says if Labor lose tomorrow there will blood-letting, recriminations, and Gillard’s career will be over, which would be a shame because it’s been so promising to date.
I really hope there’s some serious egg on faces come Sunday.
Rocket Rocket asked:
[by the way, if I remember you wrote a lot of stuff on TV digital signals last year – what have you heard re NBN effect in “tech-head” land (a land Tony has never been to!)]
Yes, it was me writing about digital TV. (Did you you know that when LIFE was shown last year on the BBC it was blu-ray quality, yet in Oz the ABC shows it in only standard definition?)
But to answer your question, I’m very worried that the NBN has not been properly debated.
What broadband services are really worth $3,000 per person to receive? Not $3,000 for some people to receive, but for EVERYONE.
And getting a fast connection is one thing, but this does not make it cheaper to access the 70% of content that comes from overseas. I’ve not heard any discussion about USAGE costs.
Of course Abbott is technically and scientifically illiterate. But I don’t think Labor has thought things through. And Conroy is as much an idiot as Abbott.
So I’m against Greens policy in full support for the NBN rollout. But I do support the Greens view that what is built should not be sold off.
RodH@236 – too late for an ALP ad with Tommy Raudonikis? Agree this is gold.
Hows the betting market folks???
Heard Gillard was treated like a rock star in Bennelong. Aside from what the reporter said a small group of Libs supporters, one yelling out she was a backstabber she was received extremely well.
Qld ALP inside goss (unionist father-in-law just home from work) – probably lose minimum 3 here, max 5, maybe 1 gain. no seats named. overall, they are looking at a reduced majority victory.
Morgan 51-49 to ALP. Says a hung parliament likely.
Now, now, my say. You were one of the posters keeping our spirits up earlier. Don’t be down now. Deep breaths. Add a square to your quilting to take your mind of things. We will win. Pebbles was having his little joke – as was I in response to him. 🙂
Two Fridays ago on LL Hartcher tipped that it was “Abbott’s to lose”.
Then last Friday he tipped that Labor would “squeak home”, and again on Thursday on ABC radio.
Now I wonder what this political savant is going to say tonight?
They really don’t have a clue. There’s more expertise here at PB than in a thousand overpaid, pin-stripe-suited “Political Editors” with plummy voices.
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2010/4567/
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2010/4567/
Gary finds the ALP ahead in NSW.?
[This was said in 1983, just prior to Labor’s five terms in government.]
By who? Hayden’s dumping was hardly seen as an electoral risk. It was widely seen as having caught Fraser out.
270 – when was this William? Because if it was just today, he’d likely have acces to Newspoll woulfn’t he?
One of the little commented upon aspects of a Coalition victory, if one is visited upon this nation, is that in all probability Australian voters will be in no mood whatsoever to throw out a second consecutive one-term government in 2013.
So this is, for all practical purposes, voting Abbott in for six years, short of a political meltdown on their side.
Primary L-NP 42% (down 0.1% from 07 election)…not strong enough