Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Essential Research has come good with a final set of polling figures, and in two-party terms they’re no different from Monday’s, with Labor leading 51-49. Both parties are down a point on the primary vote, Labor to 38 per cent and the Coalition to 43 per cent, with the Greens up two to 12 per cent. The poll also gauges reasons for vote choice, whether respondents’ opinions of the leaders have gone up or down since the election was called (down in both cases) and firmness of vote, the latter confirming the impression of other polls that Labor support is “softer” than for the Coalition. I am also informed The West Australian will tonight publish a Westpoll that will show Labor trailing in Hasluck and Swan, but 50-50 in the race to nab Canning from the Liberals. Then there’s this from the Courier-Mail:

Labor began the campaign with a worst-case scenario of the Coalition winning 10 Queensland seats. But party sources now believe the loss could be contained to three Queensland seats. This comes as internal ALP polling this week suggests as many as eight or nine seats could fall in NSW. LNP sources confirmed that late deciding voters were opting for Labor in many Queensland marginals. The LNP’s only “almost certain” gains have narrowed to Leichhardt, Flynn and Dawson. But Labor sources dispute Dawson, where they say they have their nose in front. But they say the Brisbane-Gold Coast corridor seat of Forde would be “extremely hard” to retain. Labor also is worried about the bayside seat of Bonner and the Townsville-based seat of Herbert but is confident of holding Longman, Petrie and Brisbane.

My reading of the situation is that Labor’s position in Sydney seems to have soured over the final week, with the Parramatta-to-Epping rail promise looking like another tactical blunder that has succeeded only in shackling federal Labor closer to the state government. Bennelong is almost universally rated as lost for Labor, Lindsay will probably go too, and there might even be trouble for them in Greenway. However, the picture elsewhere seems to be as it was the other night when I made my prediction of 79 seats for Labor, which included Bennelong and Lindsay, plus one for the Greens – although there is now also the question of whether Longman MP Jon Sullivan’s self-inflicted wound will prove fatal. But there are more than enough seats in serious doubt one way or the other to make the situation very unclear. Martin O’Shannessy of Newspoll was quoted in The Australian today saying the “rusted on” vote at the current time is about 10 per cent lower than usual at about 60 per cent. The Australian’s Samantha Maiden offered that “an estrogen-fuelled surge of female voters has been cited as the secret weapon Gillard can count on to fall over the line”.

Finally, the Australian Financial Review has gone to the effort to check meteorological records on election days throughout Australian history, presumably to investigate the notion that a winter election might pose dangers for Labor in particular. However, what they found was that “70 per cent of federal governmetn defeats transpired when polling day – in autumn or summer – dawned dry across the country”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

338 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 7
1 4 5 6 7
  1. I seem to remeber 28,000 sample saying alot had already PRE POLLED already , and that it was about 54/46 to Labor , but not sure if that was then weighted

  2. If a secpnd wave recession hits who dp you wsant to be in Government Abbott or Gillard. Do you want to entrust the balance of power in the Senate to the Greens? How long do you expect Abbott will allo a Green controlled Senate to remain in office? We can expect a Double Dissolution within 18 months oif Abbott is elected. Abbott will blame all the economic ills on the Greens.

  3. [The Murdoch press supports the Libs whats new, time Labor favoured everyone else in the media bar Murdoch. With the Asian media link contract up, Labor should keep it with the Abc and the siphoning rules well i would allow Channel One greater freedom to get more elite sport. Bugger Murdoch i say.]

    marky – in a better world there would be a royal commission into this debacle, murdoch et al are corrupting democracy

  4. 181

    It is not the overall number of votes but the number of votes per booth that count with the speed. The ACT has large urban booths making up almost its entire vote and so will probably be the last Senate race to get a decent number of booth results in.

  5. OK, at this point I am a realist. Let’s face it. We’ve hit a wall and it doesn’t look good. This late in the game there is nothing you can do about it. Despite all of the reassurances in here from the echo chamber, we have to face facts and I have to be realistic in my prediction and revise as such. So, with a heavy heart I think the ALP will only get 140 seats tomorrow… (I’m almost in tears having to type it)

  6. Marickville, you could be right. I think the independents will be flexible enough to support whichever party gets the most seats. Have there ever been any circumstances in Australian or Westminster history where a second election has been required?

  7. [Perhaps the real reason for the swing in Western Sydney is the natural sookiness and whinge that seems to emminate from most of the Sydney Region and their sense of entitlement is obscuring the difference between State and Federal and so anyone will do.]

    My sentiments exactly.

    They’re on average about $4000 better off a year than when Labor came to power. Too much, obviously, because they now want MORE!

  8. [I seem to remember 28,000 sample saying alot had already PRE POLLED already , and that it was about 54/46 to Labor , but not sure if that was then weighted]

    What is strange is that the AEC can not provide a running tally as to the number of postal votes received back. We have requested this information and they have not been able to provide any information. This data should have been available on a daily basis.

  9. Tony Abbott at Brookvale Oval with the Sea Eagles??? And he wants to pick up votes in western Sydney and Queensland????

    What is the guy thinking! The Sea Eagles are just about as popular in those places as anthrax is on a dairy farm!

  10. [Have there ever been any circumstances in Australian or Westminster history where a second election has been required?]

    I recall earlier in Canadian political history a few HoC stalemates, or something. IIRC.

  11. 200

    Melbourne and Fraser are wealthy, left leaning urban booths and would likely have more people who travel on election day.

  12. Fringe of Sydney is mainly about LACK of services incl transport , on cn end up in a traffic jam on way to Sydney CBD a damn hour out of sydney itself

    now NSW Govt is so far on nose , guess there is spill overs there to federal tht rarely happens

  13. Is Tony Abbott running around in a Manly (silvertails) jumper a good idea when he needs to win votes in fibro town, Western Sydney?

  14. @ Puffy – go to SportingbetAustralia, SportsBet, CentreBet, SportsPunter, other provider of choice, create your account, part with your money. Or, get down to the pub and see if you have any takers in the bar.

  15. ABC Headlines for the last 2 hours “Abbot still standing in battle for power” with a picture of Abbot playing football and “Going negative” with picture of Julia. Hmmm

  16. If Labor loses this election, than they would have in the space of three months ruined two leaders. They would be a rabble.
    The NSW right would no longer be considered credible and the party would tear itself apart. Why is it in this position of a very close election, the economy is not as good as it seems unemployment is not five percent more like 15 and many people are still working casually or part time. Housing affordability is a significant issue and will continue to be so whilst governments are doing nothing about it. And finally Gillard has will wait and see on result but it looks like she has been a flop.

  17. [What is the guy thinking! The Sea Eagles are just about as popular in those places as anthrax is on a dairy farm!]

    Or a pork chop in a synagogue, or a bacon sarnie in a mosque for that matter.

    Yes hanging around the ‘silver-spoon team’ will go down like a cup of puke for some voters elsewhere in Sydney & NSW.

  18. It gets worse. He’s just dished out $10 million to upgrade Brookvale Oval for the “silver-tailed” Sea Eagles!

    Any damage done by Gillard standing next to the NSW premier has just been irrevocably reversed!

  19. DAW wrote –

    There is serious concern that second wave recession is on the way. An Abbott government would further push Australia towards the economic edge.

    Four Corners on monday night is about just that. Will be interesting to see if it just has perma-bear types or others with more perspective.

    One of the people they speak too is Gerald Celente who can be a bit of a nut job at times. He is here – http://www.trendsresearch.com/index.htm

    To me the 15 months commencing in October is going to be whether Obama can get the normal pre US Presidential election market rally going and economy on the mend. The 15 month period I refer to has NEVER had a negative stockmarket return.

    Also remember a big chunk of the US stimulis has been set aside for this very purpose and the US Fed will also be pushing with the US Government, with US investors anticipating the expected rally.

  20. On ABC radio a journalist were lamenting that the Rabbott had avoided policy scrutiny which is not their fault as he only did 10-12 minute pressers.

  21. dave – given last night and the “double-dip” momentum building in the US, a question will be the Aug-Oct return before we get to the 15 month rally 😉

  22. Dee@232

    On ABC radio a journalist were lamenting that the Rabbott had avoided policy scrutiny which is not their fault as he only did 10-12 minute pressers.

    Well the Dumb Media kept asking Dorothy Dixers etc – What a hypocrite.

  23. Labor need a quick rework of their polling booth strategy in western Sydney tomorrow. All they have to do now is get those photos of Tony in a Sea Eagles jumper up in prominent positions in marginal western Sydney electorates and the elections is theirs!

  24. [Channel 10 political editor Paul Bong.. whatshisname.. has tipped a Tory minority Government.]

    yes, using tea leaves a sayons board

  25. [On ABC radio a journalist were lamenting that the Rabbott had avoided policy scrutiny which is not their fault as he only did 10-12 minute pressers.]

    Too late now to feel bad about their shithouse questions and coverage. Lame

  26. [yes, using tea leaves a sayons board]

    Yeah, I tend to think its unlikely. Never happened since before the war, only a small number of non aligned members etc.

  27. given last night and the “double-dip” momentum building in the US, a question will be the Aug-Oct return before we get to the 15 month rally

    Lao, yep of course. we may well go a lot lower etc before then. Markets really don’t know if they are arthur or martha atm, imo

  28. The boats wont stop under PM Abbott but the reporting daily of a running total of arrivals will just as it did under Howard.

  29. Rod Hagen@236

    Labor need a quick rework of their polling booth strategy in western Sydney tomorrow. All they have to do now is get those photos of Tony in a Sea Eagles jumper up in prominent positions in marginal western Sydney electorates and the elections is theirs!

    Just Tweeted it to NSW Labor 🙂

  30. Well pub time for me. Let me know when the mad monk gets out the hair shirt and flagellation whip for a deperate last bid

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 5 of 7
1 4 5 6 7