Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail on the Queensland situation:
Labor looks like losing three seats in Queensland at the very least – Leichhardt, Flynn, Dawson – and not picking up the Liberal-held but notionally ALP electorates of Herbert and Dickson. Beyond this Forde, Petrie, Longman and Bonner are within reach for the Coalition but still defendable for Labor. The other Queensland marginals – Brisbane, Moreton and Blair – look to be out of reach for the Coalition but this remains an expect-the-unexpected contest. Another unexpected wild card that is troubling some in the Queensland LNP and exciting a few Labor campaigners is the seat of Wright, the newly created electorate which sprawls to the south of Greater Brisbane and is, on paper, a 4.8 per cent Coalition seat. Some local trouble with the Coalition candidate, Scott Buchholz, and his electoral roll status as well as a few issues running Labor’s way has caused a nervous reassessment in conservative circles, although signs of a 3 to 4 per cent anti-government swing in Queensland make it look like a rank outsider.
Nick O’Malley and Erik Jensen of the Sydney Morning Herald note a curious fact:
But what is truly remarkable about western Sydney is the seats of Lindsay, Macarthur and Macquarie do not enjoy the largesse expected in key marginals. They are among the most important seats in NSW, held on margins of between 0.3 and 6.3 per cent, but there is almost no campaign pork barrelling. Labor’s $2 billion for an Epping-to-Parramatta rail link falls short of the region, though it will ease traffic. The best the Liberals have managed is $5 million to upgrade local sports grounds and some money for a bushland corridor. And still the seats are without adequate transport.
Elsewhere:
Bennelong (NSW, Labor 1.4%): Momentum is building behind the idea that Maxine McKew will not be spared the backlash against Labor in Sydney. A Liberal source quoted by Imre Salusinszky of The Australian said party polling had their candidate John Alexander “well in front, confirming what state Liberal MPs based in northern Sydney have been telling The Australian since the beginning of the campaign”. However, a Labor source is quoted saying their polling has it at 50-50, to which McKew recovered after Alexander was “edging towards a win on first preferences” at the start of the campaign. A 300-sample Morgan poll conducted on Tuesday had Alexander leading 50.5-49.5
Robertson (NSW, Labor 0.1%): A complaint to police alleging Liberal candidate Darren Jameson had manhandled two boys he believed had thrown eggs at his car has been withdrawn. Jameson is blaming Labor for the leaking of the complaint to the media. Imre Salusinszky argues that if indeed was a Labor plot to besmirch Jameson in the eyes of local voters, it hasn’t worked.
Herbert (Qld, Labor 0.4%): Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan were in Townsville on Tuesday to launch mainland construction of the National Broadband Network. The fortuitous placement of NBN pilot sites and GP super clinics was covered in depth yesterday by Nikola Berkovic and Adam Cresswell of The Australian.
Courtesy of Lukas in comments, here’s a full list of Labor two-party results from the JWS Research/Telereach robopoll. You can see a full set of results for Bass here; for any other electorate, make the obvious change to the URL. The Lindsay page is broken, hence its lack of a figure in the table. Bold denotes a seat tipped to change hands.
| ALP WINS | ALP 2PP% | LNP WINS | ALP 2PP% |
| Franklin | 65 | Leichhardt | 49.9 |
| Bendigo | 61 | Robertson | 49.8 |
| Deakin | 61 | Corangamite | 49.5 |
| Bass | 60 | Calare | 49 |
| Kingston | 59 | Bennelong | 48 |
| Braddon | 58 | Flynn | 48 |
| McEwen | 57 | Cowan | 48 |
| Dunkley | 57 | McMillan | 48 |
| Hindmarsh | 56 | Swan | 48 |
| Brand | 56 | Sturt | 47 |
| Eden-Monaro | 54 | Stirling | 47 |
| Boothby | 54 | Dawson | 46 |
| Cowper | 54 | Canning | 46 |
| Dobell | 53 | Ryan | 46 |
| Page | 53 | Petrie | 44 |
| Gilmore | 53 | Forde | 44 |
| Moreton | 52 | Hughes | 44 |
| Paterson | 52 | Hinkler | 44 |
| Greenway | 51 | Hasluck | 43 |
| La Trobe | 51 | Grey | 42.5 |
| Longman | 51 | Macarthur | 42 |
| Solomon | 51 | Bonner | 41 |
| Herbert | 51 | Brisbane | 41 |
| Macquarie | ? | Dickson | 41 |
| Fisher | 41 | ||
| Bowman | 40 | ||
| Fairfax | 40 | ||
| Wright | 36 | ||
| Lindsay | ? |
My cat isn’t psychic, she just uses observation and logic and says it’s clear Gillard will win. She has vowed to quit mice if her prediction doesn’t come true!
some one should try to tweet littika to see if she can tweet around the pbs lib policy
Mad Professor
The moniker is apt even if the predictions aren’t!! 😉
[alp 60
lnp 63
grn 18
others 9]
You are nearly as kooky as that complete nutter, Pinko on that one. He’s probably off having his ‘Che’ Beret dry cleaned… I haven’t got the heart to tell the poor bugger about Glasnost yet! 🙁
Gillard is off to Newcastle. Could Paterson be in play after all? Or is she shoring up Labor seats?
[ You are nearly as kooky as that complete nutter ]
Pot meet kettle. No offence to MP.
Frank
[Same sex couples covered by Gillard’s 2 weeks of paternity leave plan #ausvotes less than a minute ago via Twitter for iPhone Retweeted by you and 2 others ]
…sooo, how do they work out which one is the Dad?? 🙂
Some comedic relief:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iJzfj4yWq8E
Mick, it’s not a prediction, it’s the seats as they would’ve been after the 2007 if it was a proportional system.
[…sooo, how do they work out which one is the Dad??]
Grow up!
Ok if you want optimism this is the optimistic side of the coin.When incumbent governments have lost in the past the oposition has had very big leads in the polls for a long time leading into the election – this was the case in 96 and 07.
On historical precedent Abbott has simply not been polling anywhere near well enough to win and labor winning comfortably is not out of the question – I wish this bloody election would hurry up and be run and won it’s no good for my health.
Madcyril, could be either. Probably the latter.
Evan
[Just looked at Centrebet odds for all seats!
They currently put Labor ahead in 77 seats – McEwen and La Trobe get Gillard the slimmest of majorities.
Bennelong is blowing out as a Liberal gain.
Lindsday is essentially line ball.]
Are you on commission with Centrebet or do they just give you the best odds to snuggle up with the idea of another 3 years of the comrades??
@ Dio
[Not always but there is often enough to easily save $1B.]
This a funny, but parallel argument to the PPL in some ways.
Abbott wants to save money by getting everyone to use a standard, generic drug. But he wants to expend money by giving everyone full pay when parental on leave rather than the generic, basic wage.
Surely this must give people pause?
[Gillard is off to Newcastle. Could Paterson be in play after all? Or is she shoring up Labor seats?]
Was info I had earlier today. Glad she is heading north. Was why I asked you about the betting, Benji.
[Ok if you want optimism this is the optimistic side of the coin.When incumbent governments have lost in the past the oposition has had very big leads in the polls for a long time leading into the election – this was the case in 96 and 07.
On historical precedent Abbott has simply not been polling anywhere near well enough to win and labor winning comfortably is not out of the question – I wish this bloody election would hurry up and be run and won it’s no good for my health.]
Pedro best sense you have made all day – my advice, stick with those thoughts from now on.
I was thinking about these batting markets at work today. This is how I see it.
People who think Labor is going to win are putting large amounts (much bigger pools) on the “win/lose” overall result – they are not too sure where Labor will get the 75+ seats but they are pretty sure (75% statistically) that they will.
Those betting on individual seats are currently giving a 75 Labor -4-71 result (Lindsay and Latrobe are both very close across the markets). However those backing the Libs in these individual seats (beacuse of “inside knowledge” or whatever) are also clearly not very confident of the Coalition winning the election overall – if they were, why would you back Bennelong at about $2.00 (or any of these similar payouts) rather than backing the Libs to win overall at $3.50 to $3.80??
ps – I note that Betfair’s most favored swing has continued to fall, and it is now the “0-0.99% to Coalition” one paying $3.50
There is so much noise at the moment. Abbott cutting ANOTHER $1b from health (PBS) is a very simple message for the last 2 days. Did Julia mention it at the press club? Is it getting a run at all?
Pebbles
[Grow up!]
Oh, such reparte!! Such Wit! Is that another reference to me being short-statured? So you not only bag women with “whining Vagina” and Christians but have it against us little people too eh?
Pebbles you are bigoted twat. 🙂
typo.. that was ‘twit’.
Mick Wilkinson: I’m just browsing the Centrebet site – if only I was on commission with them. 😉
ltep. Yes, I was thinking along those lines. Although if she’s there to shore up seats around Newcastle, Labor are in trouble.
LTEP
[Mick, it’s not a prediction, it’s the seats as they would’ve been after the 2007 if it was a proportional system.]
oh. My bad, came in late. Sry 🙂
The two “tactical” votes of this election must surely be –
Lower House – 1000-1500 Labor voters vote Lib 1 Lab 2 in Melbourne to hold seat.
Upper House – many (a few %?) Labor voters vote Grn 1 in ACT to push out Libs and change Senate immediately
http://dailybludge.com.au/2010/08/liberals-to-cut-the-pbs/
abbott will cut the pbs
Evan
[Mick Wilkinson: I’m just browsing the Centrebet site – if only I was on commission with them. ]
Now there’s a thought… yeah, I’d take 0.1% and be happy!:)
[Pebbles you are bigoted twat.]
You should be banned for that comment. Spare me the BS about typos
Andrew@816
It was mentioned, but their loyal oppositioon media hacks are letting through to the keeper.
If the PM is going to Newcastle, Paterson MUST be in play. Seats like Newcastle, Hunter, Shortland and Charlton are as safe as anything could be. Gives me hope for Arneman in Paterson.
Does anybody know when she will be up in Newcastle?
Bluey reckons that Bludgers who take any notice of psychic crocs and cats are Greens. It stands to reason.
madcyril – no to Newcastle seats. Let’s see where she ends up today.
Is it really a good idea for Abbott to be telling voters he was greiving and lost after 07, and has been depressed this campaign? Not exactly projecting an image of stability
Mick Wilkinson
I love the smell of losing Libs in the arvo. 😛
Benji. I’m starting to think that way too. Despite my inbuilt pessimism. Sabra Lane from the ABC sent this Tweet around half an hour ago:
[
Gillard express off to Newcastle
]
[Bluey reckons that Bludgers who take any notice of psychic crocs and cats are Greens. It stands to reason.]
Typical Psepholopod! 😛
(the misspelling was intentional)
Frank, I think Gillard and Swan needs to employ Abbott’s trick: Just say the ONE thing over and over again. If the MSM want to report what you said, that is it.
[Madcyril, could be either. Probably the latter.]
In Newcastle? Pray tell, which of the three Newcastle seats would you like to see in trouble?
Of those seats is Newcastle the least “safe”? I believe she’s been to Newcastle once before earlier in the campaign but spent most of the time in Paterson.
ruawake@832
Notice how shrill both he and Candles have been in the last few days.
methiinks they are puutting the manufacturers of Agarol out of business 🙂
At least we know why the costings were not submitted to treasury: they dont add up and hidden nasties like the PBS
And the a is so close to the i too. Eisy mastike to mike.
http://dailybludge.com.au/2010/08/liberals-to-cut-the-pbs/
THIS IS A MUST READ
SEND IT ON TO EVERY ONE IN YOUR FAMILY VIA EMAIL AND ASK THEM TO DO THE SAME PLEASE
FACE BOOK TO
Paterson poll by Newcastle Herald has ALP in front……
http://www.theherald.com.au/news/local/news/general/paterson-seat-is-a-tight-call/1917322.aspx?storypage=1
The other thing about the parallel between the $1bn out of hospitals and $1bn out of PBS is that the former drives Abbott mental…we saw that in QT and in the health debate (he brought out the budget papers!!)
He hates attention being drawn to the those hospital cuts
Rocket Squared:
[I was thinking about these batting markets at work today.]
Couldn’t resist this one. 🙂
Current Batting markets:
QLD: Hard whacks in the head for Flynn, Herbert, Bowman, Brisbane and Wright. Knock in the guts for Forde and Moreton, gentle bum pat for Griffith.
NSW: Sweeper to the noggin in Gilmore, Lindsay, Bennelong, Paterson, Robertson. Ankle chop to the Macs, glance off the shoulder in Greenway.
WA: Groin Whack to Hasluck (despite name), Smack in the Shins to Swan
SA: Out for a duck, early drinks break.
VIC: Body blow to McEwen, Chop in the Moosh in Melbourne, Foot Smash to Corangamite. Deflected off pads in La Trobe
Solomon: Not allowed. DVO.
Tasmania: Lots of force, little damage, likely to hold the wrong end of the bat down there.
🙂
ltep, Charlton is on 12.9% and the rest around Newcastle are more than that. Must be heading for Paterson
From Poss:
Thanks Randy@677
Didn’t know Maxine had lost her voice!!
Some bug raging around here – I have a touch of it myself!!
I mentioned earlier that there is interesting news in the local Northern District Times about the railway extension from Epping to Parramatta today. Contradictory words from Alexander and Abbott.
And Angry Anderson got into the picture yesterday – IMHO just a crazy stab in the dark from the libs – haven’t seen much of the tattoo and bikie groups in Bennelong!!
Max will have her great tribe of supporters out on Saturday for sure!! And she will have solid support from the Greens.
[
The media here in W.A are getting firmly on the Fiberal bandwagon.]
Make sure you keep a copy imacca – we’re gonna get right up them after the election with a dedicated site that analyses this campaign critically.
The papers and media generally have been treating Aussies like fools — but we’ll get our own back.
Two of the forgotten losers from this weekend are Downer and Howard.
Downer would be on a promise for Oz rep to the UN, just to stick it to Rudd, and Howie would be after any govt appointment to restore his morale following the cricket rejection.
need Tone to win first though for it to happen.