Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail on the Queensland situation:
Labor looks like losing three seats in Queensland at the very least – Leichhardt, Flynn, Dawson – and not picking up the Liberal-held but notionally ALP electorates of Herbert and Dickson. Beyond this Forde, Petrie, Longman and Bonner are within reach for the Coalition but still defendable for Labor. The other Queensland marginals – Brisbane, Moreton and Blair – look to be out of reach for the Coalition but this remains an expect-the-unexpected contest. Another unexpected wild card that is troubling some in the Queensland LNP and exciting a few Labor campaigners is the seat of Wright, the newly created electorate which sprawls to the south of Greater Brisbane and is, on paper, a 4.8 per cent Coalition seat. Some local trouble with the Coalition candidate, Scott Buchholz, and his electoral roll status as well as a few issues running Labor’s way has caused a nervous reassessment in conservative circles, although signs of a 3 to 4 per cent anti-government swing in Queensland make it look like a rank outsider.
Nick O’Malley and Erik Jensen of the Sydney Morning Herald note a curious fact:
But what is truly remarkable about western Sydney is the seats of Lindsay, Macarthur and Macquarie do not enjoy the largesse expected in key marginals. They are among the most important seats in NSW, held on margins of between 0.3 and 6.3 per cent, but there is almost no campaign pork barrelling. Labor’s $2 billion for an Epping-to-Parramatta rail link falls short of the region, though it will ease traffic. The best the Liberals have managed is $5 million to upgrade local sports grounds and some money for a bushland corridor. And still the seats are without adequate transport.
Elsewhere:
Bennelong (NSW, Labor 1.4%): Momentum is building behind the idea that Maxine McKew will not be spared the backlash against Labor in Sydney. A Liberal source quoted by Imre Salusinszky of The Australian said party polling had their candidate John Alexander “well in front, confirming what state Liberal MPs based in northern Sydney have been telling The Australian since the beginning of the campaign”. However, a Labor source is quoted saying their polling has it at 50-50, to which McKew recovered after Alexander was “edging towards a win on first preferences” at the start of the campaign. A 300-sample Morgan poll conducted on Tuesday had Alexander leading 50.5-49.5
Robertson (NSW, Labor 0.1%): A complaint to police alleging Liberal candidate Darren Jameson had manhandled two boys he believed had thrown eggs at his car has been withdrawn. Jameson is blaming Labor for the leaking of the complaint to the media. Imre Salusinszky argues that if indeed was a Labor plot to besmirch Jameson in the eyes of local voters, it hasn’t worked.
Herbert (Qld, Labor 0.4%): Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan were in Townsville on Tuesday to launch mainland construction of the National Broadband Network. The fortuitous placement of NBN pilot sites and GP super clinics was covered in depth yesterday by Nikola Berkovic and Adam Cresswell of The Australian.
Courtesy of Lukas in comments, here’s a full list of Labor two-party results from the JWS Research/Telereach robopoll. You can see a full set of results for Bass here; for any other electorate, make the obvious change to the URL. The Lindsay page is broken, hence its lack of a figure in the table. Bold denotes a seat tipped to change hands.
| ALP WINS | ALP 2PP% | LNP WINS | ALP 2PP% |
| Franklin | 65 | Leichhardt | 49.9 |
| Bendigo | 61 | Robertson | 49.8 |
| Deakin | 61 | Corangamite | 49.5 |
| Bass | 60 | Calare | 49 |
| Kingston | 59 | Bennelong | 48 |
| Braddon | 58 | Flynn | 48 |
| McEwen | 57 | Cowan | 48 |
| Dunkley | 57 | McMillan | 48 |
| Hindmarsh | 56 | Swan | 48 |
| Brand | 56 | Sturt | 47 |
| Eden-Monaro | 54 | Stirling | 47 |
| Boothby | 54 | Dawson | 46 |
| Cowper | 54 | Canning | 46 |
| Dobell | 53 | Ryan | 46 |
| Page | 53 | Petrie | 44 |
| Gilmore | 53 | Forde | 44 |
| Moreton | 52 | Hughes | 44 |
| Paterson | 52 | Hinkler | 44 |
| Greenway | 51 | Hasluck | 43 |
| La Trobe | 51 | Grey | 42.5 |
| Longman | 51 | Macarthur | 42 |
| Solomon | 51 | Bonner | 41 |
| Herbert | 51 | Brisbane | 41 |
| Macquarie | ? | Dickson | 41 |
| Fisher | 41 | ||
| Bowman | 40 | ||
| Fairfax | 40 | ||
| Wright | 36 | ||
| Lindsay | ? |
Socrates, I would just change the system to allow numbering above the line (possibly having votes exhaust if people choose to not number all the boxes).
ltep@738
The way they do in all the PR countries depending on the local system. With the MMP system in NZ the seats are allocated differently to a straight party list system. In the latter, the seats are simply divided up between the parties over the threshold according to their proportion of the vote.
Someone did a calculation this morning as to how the Reps would look with straight PR.
(Whoever it was, if they are still around they might re-post that.)
On the pb login problems etc.
Appears to be a caching thing – just try a refresh after you’ve logged in – should fix.
(On firefox this works)
I missed this article from yesterday’s SMH when I commented on Liberal transport policy earlier. it highlights Abbott’s ideological fondness for cars over public transport
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/carloving-leader-on-a-collision-course-with-turnbull-20100816-126zz.html
The more I look at Liberal promises, they say they will stikc to the infrastructure Australia process, but I don’t believe it. They have promised several projects not shortlisted by IA (eg Melbourne Adelaide duplication) but not others that are on the list.
I think if you live in NW Sydney adna re waiting for a rail line, you can forget about it under the coalition. Keep drivign and expect to pay more tolls. Those private infrastructure bonds will have to get paid for somehow.
Folks, I’m disgusted with the ABC!
They are actually worse than News Ltd, if that’s possible.
I agree that Rudd should have purged that organisation of all those with Liberal sympathies, starting with Mark Scott.
Fran Kelly is obviously auditioning for a job on Sky, Lyndal Curtis and Alison Carrabine think they’re still on Radio Liberal, and Chris Toolman’s performance last night on ABC News 24 was disgraceful.
does he know she was an advocate for the unions in her youth and a partner in a law firm and worst of all he could loose cheap medicne for his family
[Socrates, I would just change the system to allow numbering above the line (possibly having votes exhaust if people choose to not number all the boxes).]
You can do this in NSW at state elections.
Bushfire Bill
Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 2:56 pm | Permalink
One of my roof tradies and I had a heart to heart during a workbreak. No pressure, just a chat. I made him a coffee, told him to bring his little terrier inside to play with my dogs. It was pleasant.]
SEE MY POST
[Bushfire Bill
Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 2:56 pm | Permalink
One of my roof tradies and I had a heart to heart during a workbreak. No pressure, just a chat. I made him a coffee, told him to bring his little terrier inside to play with my dogs. It was pleasant.]
SEE MY POST]
if he has gone ring some excuse re the job i bet you can think of some thing
Ty
734
ty
Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 3:14 pm | Permalink
dio @ 731,
but there isn’t always a cheaper version available!
Not always but there is often enough to easily save $1B.
[Socrates, I would just change the system to allow numbering above the line (possibly having votes exhaust if people choose to not number all the boxes).]
I would agree – I really object to the way people like Fielding get elected via deals struck, rather than any sort of voter mandate. It is a corruption of democratic processes IMO. Keatings words – unrepresentative swill – were never more apt.
I reckon this PBS issue has potential to have some legs…fits a nice simple theme
– his costings were last minute: thought he could slide it through
– he ripped out $1bn out of health budget before
– he is going to rip out $1bn out of it again
Jaundiced, but all these systems tend to have fluctuating seat numbers and a larger number of seats than 6 up for election.
alp 60
lnp 63
grn 18
others 9
[754 evan14
Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 3:23 pm | Permalink
Folks, I’m disgusted with the ABC!
They are actually worse than News Ltd, if that’s possible.
I agree that Rudd should have purged
]
evan a few of us have made a decision to email our senators and ask for a senate estimates committee like they have every year any way , so do the same re what they spend on journalists and news compared to good drama which seems to be disappearing i love to see the 24/ 7 sold and them made to go back to their beginning
so do the same and give the link to your senator of political sword
Re the opposition’s $1.1b cut to the PBS, I haven’t caught up with all the comments on this thread yet, so my question might have been answered already.
When I saw this cut in the costings thingie, my first assumption was that they plan to save money by taking some drugs off the PBS.
If they raised the price per prescription for PBS drugs, wouldn’t that be ‘an increase to projected income’ rather than ‘savings’?
And I support earlier thread comments (?Ron and others) about tracking problems with untruthful or biased reporting/publishing etc. If there’s any way I can help, count me in!
Boothby has moved a bit Labor’s way. I’m sure it was something like 1.30 or thereabouts for the Libs, now they have eased to 1.50. Also Solomon has firmed for Labor in the last couple of days, in to 1.60 on some sites. But Bennelong and the Qld regionals are gone, the Libs have firmed in all of these. Page, Eden-Monaro and Dobell all looking OK for Labor in the betting, no movement.
Laocoon@761
Just Tweeted it 🙂
Just looked at Centrebet odds for all seats!
They currently put Labor ahead in 77 seats – McEwen and La Trobe get Gillard the slimmest of majorities.
Bennelong is blowing out as a Liberal gain.
Lindsday is essentially line ball.
Laocoon
Does anyone know if any pharmaceutical companies are funding the Lib campaign? I kow they hate the PBS, because they get lower profits per drug in Australia than in other wealthy countries. Ripping money out of the PBS also means they get to charge more of their products at their over the counter (hiked) prices. They have a lot to gain from the PBS getting watered down. It is one of the best central buying schemes in the world.
Agreed Gos. I hope that the result does not come down to WA. The ALP has got some excellent candidates (particulalrly MacTiernan in Canning and Tim Hammond in Swan) but it would be a huge effort to win either of those.
As usual, The West Australian has been doing its bit for the Libs and the junior mining companies are never far from the limelight.
I have been doing a fair bit on the Canning campaign, and would love for Alannah to get up but am not particularly confident.
I think holding on to Hasluck may be the best we can hope for over here.
Centrebet too has Labor comfortably holding Eden Monaro, Blair, Brisbane, Moreton.
Hold the Presses – The Croc has spoken 🙂
I made a post previously about the ABC board, but it was held for moderation for some reason. Basically, all those of you talking about how the ABC board should have been changed are a little off the mark. The board members are appointed for fixed 5 year terms, and most of them are up for renewal next year. Rudd appointed 2 new members, but obviously that’s not a majority. It is thus crucial Gillard wins this election or we wil be in opposition for a very very long time.
I just had a thought about polling and so on. I wonder if, instead of a “shy Tory” vote, we are seeing a “shy Lefty” vote reported in the polls. My reasoning being that the media seems to be so firmly anti-Labor, that some people might be wary of advertising their support for the government. I guess I’m just grasping at straws here for some glimmer of hope. I fear that the next 2 days will bring nothing positive for the government unless Tony slips up. The PBS cuts are being underreported as is Julia’s strong performance at the National Press Club.
[ Why are the rednecks of Western Sydney and Queensland not as concerned about all the visa overstayers who come to this country by plane? ]
Because most of visa over stayers who fly in are white.
mad professor@763
That’s the one. Thanks.
ltep
I agree it would be easier in the Reps with twice the number of seats and no state by state restrictions, but it could stull be done in the Senate, but would be necessarily a bit rougher, with more rounding up or down.
mundine@770
The fact that Chris Wharton CEO of The West attended don Randall’s fundraiser with John Howard says it all about the West 🙂
The problems for the Libs with PBS is they just state savings of $1.2 billion, they do not say how this saving is achieved. Abbott said it will be by paying Drug companies less. But how?
Sloppy costings nailed the LNP in Qld, and did not help in SA. Robb and Hockey have been too clever and will lose votes.
JJ: The commercial end of the media plugging for Abbott doesn’t surprise me(they supported Howard in 2007), but I’m truly saddened at how the ABC has lost its reputation for objective reporting!
It’ll be truly funny if THE AUSTRALIAN, after months of anti-Labor coverage, turns around and endorses Gillard. 😀
Well done Frank!
According to the ABC, Harry the psychic crocodile has picked Gillard for PM, and a
“full story is on the way”.
I wonder if this story has more words than the ‘costings questioned’ story it will no doubt replace.
By the way, do any of the parties have a policy to put a cap on the price of a car service? I just paid $481 for a regular run-of-the-mill service. Change the oil and give it a pat.
[Might be an unpoplular view but I believe the biggest reason for the popularity of AFL (at least in the southern states) is cause you’ve got the media constantly feeding people the line that it’s the greatest]
Disagree re the AFL. AFL has always been incredibly popular attracting large crowds well before the media took over taking it to a new level.
[When I saw this cut in the costings thingie, my first assumption was that they plan to save money by taking some drugs off the PBS.]
Helen if you can but dont know because of black out, but
this morning i emailed all local abc talk back around aust
my daughter is in pharmacy and told her tell the elderly and others as it would effect every one some how.
but i think this would cause panic, i know even for the drug i take for lupus and ra are around 85 dollars a hit if you had to pay for them full price
this is real American medicine
I SUGGEST NOW YOU DO UP ONE OF THE CHAIN LETTER TYPE EMAILS SEND TO AS MANY AS YOU CAN AND GET THEM TO SEND IT ON AND PUT IT ON FACE BOOK
something simple put pbs ( pharmacutical benefits scheme,} subsidy as many older people do not know what pbs stands for,.
face book is good if you can fiind in on line with a link to a story if we are lucky enough to find one
Yes jaundiced, otherwise you’d get the same disenfranchisement you see in first past the post systems where people feel they can’t choose to support micro parties because their vote will be wasted. I think the STV currently strikes the right balance, but would like to see the grip of the parties loosened a bit from the current list system and preference dealing.
I’m also pro states rights so will have to disagree with you on any moves to “nationalise” vote totals under a House PR system.
I definitely think PR is a necessity in the future though. I’d rather “weak” coalition governments than governments weakened by a need to pander to a small number of voters in marginal seats.
Socrates – alas, dont know if Big Pharma is a donor
[ I agree that Rudd should have purged ]
Yes, that’s one area he stuffed up, a good old fashion merciless purge was required. After 10 years of the Libs the rot had well and truly set in and the only way to fix that was to excise it. See what happens when you break with tradition?
Instead Rudd wanted to play “new” politics all nice like….well that worked well for him didn’t it.
I wonder if Tony will trawl the streets of Kings Cross tonight and give comfort to the homeless to make him feel better.
It would seem the results in New South Wales will be patchy and there’ll be no uniform swing:
Labor doing badly in Western Sydney and on the Central Coast, BUT holding seats like Eden Monaro and Page(that are normally very marginal).
[Because most of visa over stayers who fly in are white.]
True. Kiwis looking for a job and English backpayers are the biggest groups by far.
[The problems for the Libs with PBS is they just state savings of $1.2 billion, they do not say how this saving is achieved. Abbott said it will be by paying Drug companies less. But how?]
Simple. The Commonwealth takes drugs off the PBS list. The Commonwealth saves money, say $1.2 billion. But if those drugs are still needed that means patients pay $1.2 billion out of their own pockets. Except it is much worse than that. The PBS is based on very good prices for the Commonwealth. Private patients will probably pay $2 billion or more for those same drugs. That means another $800 M or more will leave the country as profits for foreign owned drug companies.
[Bennelong is blowing out as a Liberal gain.
Lindsday is essentially line ball.]
With Alexander running in Bennelong I’d expect it to be line ball 😉
the spectator@783
I admit that’s true but the media are a big part of keeping it strong. I’m a soccer fan (I still love Aussie Rules though) and unfortunately we have to pay for any promotion while the AFL gets a lot of thiers for free.
AFL is an easier sell than Abbott though. 😀
[
According to the ABC, Harry the psychic crocodile has picked Gillard for PM
]
I miss Paul the Octopus. These half baked impersonators are no match for his psychic powers.
We need to share this video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjklT59clE4 around on Twitter and elsewhere to remind people of Tony Abbott’s form on the PBS in the past.
The media here in W.A are getting firmly on the Fiberal bandwagon.
the headline to this story on the Perth Now site (the link you click for the story) is:
[Treasury: Coalition policies ‘would double surplus’ ]
Implies that treasury have signed off on their costings??
but the article:
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/coalition-policies-would-double-surplus/story-e6frg12c-1225906955002
but in the actual article they talk about the fiberals “blacklisting” treasury.
so, the actual report is only loosely associated with the headline, and the headline is massively misleading.
[ I liked JGs comment about not ‘entertaining’ the 24 hr news cycle if reelected. I think we can all move so fast we forget to think… 10 minutes ago via TweetDeck]
LatikaBourke becomes more impressive with every passing day.
ltep@785
Me too, and the coalitions in northern Europe etc are not typically ‘weak’ either. And the NZers are doing fine on the big issue of climate change through their PR parliament
The Reps could be done with larger multi-member seats. It doesn’t have to be a national list. Or a mixture like in NZ of multi-member seats and a list ‘top up’ in proportion.
evan,
But ALP should hold Dobell, so the central coast not all bad. Also Bonner is firming for the Libs. Wont be happy if Vasta gets back in!!
rang nicola office and they will send abbott pbs think to me HELEN