The super-sample poll published by Fairfax, covering 22,000 voters in 54 seats (about 400 each), turns out to have been conducted not by Nielsen, but an outfit called JWS Research whose automated phone polling on the weekend were widely noted at the time. The Sydney Morning Herald sells its managing director John Scales as “a renowned pollster” who was director of Morgan from 1992 to 1995, and research director at Crosby Textor from 2002 until earlier this year. However, its methodology is untried, at least in the Australian context: presumably pollsters go to the expense of hiring interviewers for a very good reason (UPDATE: Lukas in comments points to the assessment of legendary US polling analyst Nate Silver, that “there’s not really convincing evidence about whether IVR polls [robopolls] are inferior to regular ones”). Nonetheless, the general tenor of the results is in keeping with polling overall, give or take a few surprises. Taken together, the results point to 79 seats for Labor and 68 for the Coalition with three independents – curiously, the poll did not cover Melbourne.
Queensland. Labor to lose Brisbane, Bonner, Petrie, Leichhardt, Forde, Dawson, Flynn and Dickson, but hold Moreton, Longman and Herbert.
New South Wales. Labor to lose Lindsay, Bennelong, Macarthur and Robertson while gaining Paterson and Cowper; Labor to hold Greenway, Dobell, Page, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore and Macquarie.
Victoria. Labor to gain McEwen, La Trobe and Dunkley, but lose Corangamite.
Elsewhere. Labor to gain Boothby, lose Hasluck and Swan, and hold Solomon.
We also have Galaxy polling another 800 voters in four Queensland marginals – Bonner, Forde, Herbert and Longman – and found happier results for Labor than the Queensland sample from the weekend’s super-survey, with a swing of 3.5 per cent rather than 5.4 per cent. Morgan has also published small-sample polls from Bennelong (300) and La Trobe (200) conducted just this evening, which respectively have the Liberals leading 50.5-49.5 and Labor leading 53-47.
UPDATE: And now state-by-state breakdowns from the past two weeks of Newspoll, both of which had the national result at 52-48. The state two-party are results are 52-48 to Labor in New South Wales (a 1.7 per cent swing), 52-48 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4 per cent swing), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (0.7 per cent swing to Labor), 56-44 to Labor in South Australia (3.6 per cent swing to Labor) and 57-43 to the Coalition in Western Australia (3.7 per cent swing to the Coalition).
UPDATE 2: Recent state-level polling results in terms of Labor swing:
| TOTAL | NSW | VIC | Qld | WA | SA | ||
| JWS Research | -1.1 | -2.1 | 2.4 | -5.3 | -0.5 | -1.6 | |
| Galaxy marginals | -1.7 | -3.1 | 1.6 | -4.3 | -2.1 | 0.0 | |
| Newspoll (2 week) | -0.7 | -1.7 | 0.7 | -2.4 | -3.7 | 3.6 | |
| Nielsen (2 week) | -1.7 | -2.7 | 3.0 | -3.4 | -2.7 | 0.6 | |
| Essential (2 week) | -1.7 | -5.7 | 0.7 | -3.4 | 0.3 | 1.6 |
If it wasn’t for the Greens Bob Brown would be in a nursing home.
Pesphos wrote:
Grog wrote a piece today that included the sentence:
It’s about the three hundred and ninety-fourth time I’ve seen that written and STILL millions believe there was hardly even a GFC to warrant a Stimulus, much less that the Stimulus worked. Abbott even got away tonight with saying the GFC lasted six to eight weeks without raising even a nervous giggle of mockery from the audience.
That this government today is yet to convince a very large proportion of the population that their Stimulus package was for the good of the nation, and not just a waste and debt binge, is a testament to how badly the Labor Geniuses who run campaigns and politics inside the party have fared.
With a record like theirs, Labor should be looking at a minimum of 100 seats, bestowed upon it by a grateful nation for saving its sorry arse.
That you are classing 80 seats as a big win, and 83 as “a great triumph” show where the real waste is. If we win on Saturday – and it’s still an “if” – it’ll be despite the antics of the focus group mad plotters and schemers who claim to be the fonts of all political wisdom (like yourself, Pesphy old boy) and not because of them.
The great Labor self-doubt, where “debt” is a filthy word, even when it saved the nation, the amazing reluctance to claim credit where it is due lest it offends some sliver of society is what’s brought us to this razor’s edge. Tony Abbott knows Labor well, better than it knows itself. He knows Labor is full of urgers, lurkers and self-promotors, oh and yes, cowards who listen to them. Thank God they’re not all moral wimps, and that some of them know how to win, because the hacks certainly don’t have much of a clue at all.
Fulvio Sammut@3699
And Peter Tagliaferri would be the ALP Member for Fremantle 🙂
I just did something that makes me feel dirty. Read another of Miranda Devine’s columns. Do you think that she is actually Piers or Bolta in drag?? she is seriously rabid and seems to detest our furry, cuddly green friends with a particular passion?
Ahh Delroy has had 3 anti ALP voters.
And wev have a Labor person at last 🙂
There, you see, imacca, Miranda ain’t all bad. 🙂
Yes, yes, the Truce, the Truce.
@Fulvio a s#it carbon tax at that, that would of done nothing. Labor didn’t consult the Greens until they needed them and I believe the Greens were right to tell Labor to f* off.
I’m kind of disgusted at the misquoting by the media and some of the users here in regards to the Greens policy. It’s funny how you have a go at MSM press when things don’t go your way, but quite happy to use their facts, which are often incorrect. I just read Rebecca Wilson’s critique on the Greens being tomatoes. Oh yeah because they are 21st communists.
Personally, none of the Greens more radical approaches will see the light of day even if they do become a bigger force, simply because they have more to gain if they do a “tit for tat” kind of game with whoever is in government. I do think they need to sort of their s#it out as a party though due to the fact that I really want a 3rd force in Australian politics. If they do well in the next 3 years, I think Sydney and a few of those Tassie seats will be in play come 2013.
FS
[If it wasn’t for the Greens Bob Brown would be in a nursing home.]
I wish that he worked at the one where my mother lives as the Dr there can’t speak English.
I keep forgetting there isn’t a edit button for posts. apologises for some of my bad spelling and grammar. long day.
I love how the foreign press refers to Labor party as a centre-left party. Investigative reporting is so difficult.
Actually Delroy isn’t that rabid right, and you have to take into account the advanced age and declining mental faculties of the majority of his demographic (no, not you and me, Frank).
A few nights ago he contemptuously dismissed the nut job rantings of an aged Liberal troll, and he does allow left leaning callers to have their say uninterupted.
Admittedlly he has feral right opinionistas and commentators on his program all the time, but I think it is more a case of management obliging him to have them on, than of his choosing.
Tony comes across as being mild, insipid and weak most of the time, and I doubt he would have it in him to tell his program producers where to go.
read the smh ‘why the alp is losing the west’.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/why-labor-is-losing-the-west-20100818-12f8f.html
provides nothing new but it does touch on something which can only be described as irrational that will continue to fester
Western Sydney will be our own bible belt soon. Thank God I will never live there.
If any professional reporter or their sources want to comment on the Greens or any other party with these very sweeping statements, they should read at least some of the policies.
Of course, this would leave the Greens with very little criticism, certainly none about the Greens being an extreme left party.
The reality is that people with all sorts of social ideologies exist within the greens like any other party. The difference is that greens are more willing to examine decisions from many perspectives without subversion by commercial or other interests.
For Greens, sustainability is the key consideration for decisions regarding our day to day activities. Compassion is the key consideration when it comes to social policy.
What more could you want?
The best case scenario for the coalition is something like 51.5/48.5 to the ALP. This may seem like a narrow margin but it is not.
That last 1.5% has shifted all but permanently to the ALP away from the coalition. It is unbudgeable. It is not a small gap it is a chasm. Only when the public was temporaily seething with anger over the bizzare self-destructive antics of the ALP have these people in the middle threatened to vote Libs. But this would only ever show up on a short term basis in the polls, it wouldnt have eventuated in the polls proper.
Australia is now a majority progressive nation. Malcolm Turnbull realised this. The coalition hasn’t. Only true reform of the coalition (or total bastardisation of the ALP by Arbib et al) will shift this.
Another 500,000 plus youngster will be registered to vote for the next election. The game of conservatism is over as majoirty rule.
As more and more youngsters influence power the elderly will feel more alienated and become more nostalgic and reactionary. It is going to be hard for the coalition to balance these demographies. The current suite of politicians and policies do not do this.
should federal labor just give western sydney the middle finger?
eleven years of the coalition to foster the ‘me. me. me.’ mentality and the profound fear and hatred of asylum seekers.
such attitudes are notoriously difficult to change. this is most evident by the fact that such attitudes are not recognised as ‘racist’ by the people who hold these beliefs.
you can try to educate the children, but the adults seem lost causes.
Looks like there are still some betting opportunities for the “experts”.
Must say, I am out of the game, as i have already made a killing……and couldn’t be bothered doing the hard work required now.
Long odds on Coalition win bemuse betting agencies
[‘me. me. me.’ such attitudes are notoriously difficult to change.]
I think this is the key to future coalition success. With growing budgetary stress from increased recurrent spending on health, aged care, climate change and defence there is a drastic need to cut back on the least needed of public welfare.
I think a Liberal Party return to their tightarse ways and lack of interference in the way people go about their day to day lives could ressurect them.
Its a narrative I would buy.
I would also get rid of this debt=bad mantra. Let govt borrow for major infrastrucutre works. Put our tax money to work for a change.
#3715
[ Only when the public was temporaily seething with anger over the bizzare self-destructive antics of the ALP have these people in the middle threatened to vote Libs. ]
I beg to disagree.
In the whole 3 years the TPP only ever went under 50-50 on one occassion, and that was not when Labor was self destructing. Labor self destructed when they axed Rudd – and immediately the polls jumped. the polls have now come back to the level Rudd had them at, at the time he was axed.
Please explain to me again why Rudd was axed ?
I think that a hung parliament would be the last thing that the independants would want. It would force them to side with one party, thus alienating the majority of their base.
lindsay, if it changes again, is reverting back to form, isn’t it?
More fun and games in Robinson:
[In the whole 3 years the TPP only ever went under 50-50 on one occassion, and that was not when Labor was self destructing. Labor self destructed when they axed Rudd – and immediately the polls jumped. the polls have now come back to the level Rudd had them at, at the time he was axed.]
the polls have ducked under 50% twice according to the Pollytrend. First when Rudd ditched the ETS (plus ciggie tax, childcare backflip etc). The second is when Julia announced the citizens assembly (just before she released the ‘real’ Julia).
Country Kid
Posted Wednesday, August 18, 2010 at 11:48 pm | Permalink
“Greens & Labor should talk asap to get a Carbon Tax through the Senate next year. You heard right, a simple tax on carbon…”
Labor has its OWN CC polisy , its called a CPRS , a co2 mitgation method recommend by Prof Garnaut which as he said had 6 key advantages over a carbon tax Labor does no accept a carbon price , and as it is th Govt it will call all fundamentel shots
If Greens wish to be part of solution to CC they’ll need to adopt this Labor polisy , and accept an initial 5% cut rate , otherwise Labor will negotaite with a new Lib Leeder (Hockey or Turnbull)…remeber Liberals ALSO will hav Senate BOP !!!!
and even that will only happen , if consensus is driven coming from Julia’s Asembly of OVERT acceptanse by Public of paying for higher enegy , in order to drive making R E competitive for billions needed of private sector investmnet However one needs to be econamic literate to understand these concepts , and so far Bob Brown is shown to be a dunce
#3723
Sorry, I hadn’t included the result obtained during the election campaign, only those during the normal period of governance. However, my point remains……what was gained by ditching Rudd ?
[Western Sydney will be our own bible belt soon. Thank God I will never live there.]
Western Sydney is not a bible belt. The Hills district has a large evangelical population supported by by significant islander and phillipino population.
Otherwise hardly any churchgoers across the whole area. Anti-Muslim yes. Churhgoers no.
because rudd refused to engage with large portions of the party regarding issues such as the ets asylum seekers, the mining tax, electorate mail allowance, freezing mp pay, and not championing the governments achievements, thus alienating himself.
whilst his popularity was astronomical, he remained untouchable; when it collapsed, well, we know what happened.
[ if consensus is driven coming from Julia’s Asembly ]
Rubbish. How can 150 people represent “consensus” for a nation. We have an election, which is the best way to determine if there is a consensus. The election might have been a good time to detemine if there was consensus….but alas that is not to be.
Peter Young,
you dont have to argue with me about the silliness in ditching Rudd. They should have just taken him on over his control-freakery. Or he should have taken on the factional bullies over their insistence in dropping the ETS.
The Rudd scenario is reminiscent over the fall of Geroge Bush senior. Elected on the basis of ‘read my lips, no new taxes’. Generally well regarded Presidency, sure-footed handling of foreign affairs at end of cold war. Has to deal with obsructionist democrats dominated senate- so agrees on compromise tax-increase with Democrats to get other bills through. Game over George Bush senior. Beaten by a smug kid.
#3727
We know what happened. Some back room boys decided to axe him. The question on my mind – is why ?
[ets asylum seekers, the mining tax, electorate mail allowance, freezing mp pay, and not championing the governments achievements]
And even after that, the ALP still didn’t take account of public opinion, sticking to the focus groups and power circles advice instead.
rudd was atrocious at selling the government’s achievements; namely, the action involved in resisting the GFC. if it was the howard government, that’s the only thing we would have been hearing.
also, rudd didn’t seem to pick his fights too smartly, ie., announcing the mining tax right before a general election. nor did he forcefully outline the benefits of said tax.
not to mention the ets; damned if he did continue with it, damned if he didn’t. not only didn’t he forcefully elaborate the benifits of said scheme, he allowed the opposition to gradually dictate the issue. furthermore, if labor had gone into the current election fighting the spectre of TWO taxes, it probably would have been electoral suicide.
rudd didn’t want to take a hardline on the asylum seeker issue; whereas, elements of the labor right, the dominant faction, did. thus we noticed gillard talking about people having ‘genuine concerns’ about asylum seekers/
Ultimately the question is (and to which there can never be a definitive answer):- Would the 2010 election result:-
a. been worse under Rudd if he had remained as PM and leader (including the possibility of losing govt),
b. About the same
c. Better.
My gut instinct tells me b. or c. is the correct answer.
Ron :
and even that (a CPRS) will only happen , if consensus is DRIVEN coming FROM Julia’s Asembly of OVERT acceptanse by Public of paying for higher enegy , in order to drive making R E competitive for billions needed of private sector investmnet However one needs to be econamic literate to understand these concepts , and so far Bob Brown is shown to be a dunce
PY
PR and ‘mandate’ and comunications to alter Public sentament to actualy accept paying for co2 (instead of merely saying ‘feel good’ I support CC action) can be “DRIVEN” from a game changer , an event…of good
whereas alas effect of your posts young Peter , is most peoples is DRIVEN to laughter by your posts
The mining tax was well sold. So well that the mining industry invested heavily in getting rid of it.
I seem to remember that when Kev took the leadership, it was conditional that he had the ALPs full support. The ALP broke that deal by getting sucked into media manipulation of the polls.
Well, the ALPs loss is really the Greens gain. Win-win for me.
imo, the various groups within caucus merely mirror the sorts of groups that we would find in all parts of society, ranging from the school yard to company board-rooms, etc. it’s just that politicians’ activities are magnified a hundred fold because you can’t dump a prime minister without everyone finding out.
undoubtedly, various people were concerned about maintaining power, i.e., government, and feared the loss of exercising power. furthermore, rudd wasn’t particularly keen on sharing power.
Ron
I have never taken you as a barometer of how people think/react. Please speak for yourself, not on behalf of others including the sweeping “peoples”**
**The correct word is people, but I won’t criticise you for your lack of language skills because I understand you were deprived of the opportunity of an education as a child – but I always wonder why you haven’t taken the opportunity to attend an adult learning course.
I like PYs posts.
I wish Ron could put more effort into his expression. Very hard to read.
we can only speculate as to what it would be like now if rudd was still pm.
no, the right factions way OVERESTIMATED their ability and capacity to contain the fallout from rudd’s removal.
furthermore, federal labor had only been in power 2 1/2 years. tactics that worked well in opposition didn’t translate too well to the situation of being in office. so, federal labor was/is still feeling its way around.
and its still evident that they’re trying to make sense of it given the shenanigans over the past few weeks, and the seemingly sole reliance on gillard as the government’s salesperson.
Don’t take that as a put off Ron, if you are who you say you are, I have seen considerable improvement.
remains to be seen the consequences of passing an ets will be in the next parliament.
unless its a bipartisan approach, not only will labor have to deal with the opposition, they’ll have to deal with the mining companies AND all the other carbon intensive polluting industries at the next election.
and gillard would also have to deal with her own party
Holycow, solar technology for mining and mineral processing hasn’t even begun yet. It will be huge.
You need to have more faith in scientists, engineers, inventors and others.
We can do this the green way.
so if gillard is pm after 21/08, if she does go down the ets or carbon tax path, would she be willing to possibly sacrifice her government for said issue?
What happened at the queensland townhall meet? jules survived it unscathed?
i’m not worried about the technology. it’s the politics of the issue that’s the big concern!
Steam driven Interweb@3746
She wowed them 🙂
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/18/2986841.htm
Barbeque Bill
“That this government today is yet to convince a VERY LARGE proportion of the population that their Stimulus package was for the good of the nation, and not just a waste and debt binge, is a testament to how badly the Labor Geniuses who run campaigns and politics inside the party have fared.”
over 50% 2PPT will vote Labor on 21/8 , so obvous punters beleive Labor , if they beleived your words ie Abbotts words quote “a waste and debt binge” then Liberals would hav bolted in
Record Labor win is approx 53.5% , so at worst we down with present 52% is 1.5% , and it is that % we is down by , and no more 9and not your vastest majority
you’ve bought same nonsense narative as Greens and toffy Journo’s like Hartcher & Laurie Oakes that Labor did not “sell” well
Who was PM for 2.5 yrs when GFC occurred , insulation scheme and BER done….Kevin Rudd soo its all Kevin’s fault …no !!
(Who were th then Senior minsiters Tanner , Gillard , Swan Wong , its there secondary fault plus Kevin’s primary faukt…no !)
‘selling ‘ involves salesmen to customer , and in politcs there is a middlemen (MSN) to “pass on” Labor salesmens message to buyers voters
there IS a failure to communicate allrite ,
but that is because middlemen (MSN) “unsell” Labors selling messages by un report , mis report , distort report , incompetant report , or just plain old fashioned cap report…and IT IS has cost Labor 1.5% off its 2 PPT (with remain 5% Labor primary vote loss to Greens by there cynical popularism & carping OFF Labor polisys to steal Labor primarys that th SAME MSN never do expose either)
Is Labor govt entrie innocent , no , kicked some own goals and some salesmens not as good as Hawkie , but we talking at margins because BER was fact a great success , and BOTH Kevin (with Julia as D/pm defended rort/waste claims strongly in Hor , in Pressers , on current affairs
listen to Prof Stigler on waste as he said same as Kevin and Julai , wwte you get waste with or w/out a focused Stimili , except with a Stimili you get less much much less ‘waste’ , and as our oz Stimili best focued in Workld we had even less ‘waste’ and greater econamic positives
but was anyone listening ? well Jorno’s were , but they did not pass it on to th buyers voters
it’s one thing to fight for a cause. it’s another thing to martyr the whole party and government!