The super-sample poll published by Fairfax, covering 22,000 voters in 54 seats (about 400 each), turns out to have been conducted not by Nielsen, but an outfit called JWS Research whose automated phone polling on the weekend were widely noted at the time. The Sydney Morning Herald sells its managing director John Scales as “a renowned pollster” who was director of Morgan from 1992 to 1995, and research director at Crosby Textor from 2002 until earlier this year. However, its methodology is untried, at least in the Australian context: presumably pollsters go to the expense of hiring interviewers for a very good reason (UPDATE: Lukas in comments points to the assessment of legendary US polling analyst Nate Silver, that “there’s not really convincing evidence about whether IVR polls [robopolls] are inferior to regular ones”). Nonetheless, the general tenor of the results is in keeping with polling overall, give or take a few surprises. Taken together, the results point to 79 seats for Labor and 68 for the Coalition with three independents – curiously, the poll did not cover Melbourne.
Queensland. Labor to lose Brisbane, Bonner, Petrie, Leichhardt, Forde, Dawson, Flynn and Dickson, but hold Moreton, Longman and Herbert.
New South Wales. Labor to lose Lindsay, Bennelong, Macarthur and Robertson while gaining Paterson and Cowper; Labor to hold Greenway, Dobell, Page, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore and Macquarie.
Victoria. Labor to gain McEwen, La Trobe and Dunkley, but lose Corangamite.
Elsewhere. Labor to gain Boothby, lose Hasluck and Swan, and hold Solomon.
We also have Galaxy polling another 800 voters in four Queensland marginals – Bonner, Forde, Herbert and Longman – and found happier results for Labor than the Queensland sample from the weekend’s super-survey, with a swing of 3.5 per cent rather than 5.4 per cent. Morgan has also published small-sample polls from Bennelong (300) and La Trobe (200) conducted just this evening, which respectively have the Liberals leading 50.5-49.5 and Labor leading 53-47.
UPDATE: And now state-by-state breakdowns from the past two weeks of Newspoll, both of which had the national result at 52-48. The state two-party are results are 52-48 to Labor in New South Wales (a 1.7 per cent swing), 52-48 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4 per cent swing), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (0.7 per cent swing to Labor), 56-44 to Labor in South Australia (3.6 per cent swing to Labor) and 57-43 to the Coalition in Western Australia (3.7 per cent swing to the Coalition).
UPDATE 2: Recent state-level polling results in terms of Labor swing:
| TOTAL | NSW | VIC | Qld | WA | SA | ||
| JWS Research | -1.1 | -2.1 | 2.4 | -5.3 | -0.5 | -1.6 | |
| Galaxy marginals | -1.7 | -3.1 | 1.6 | -4.3 | -2.1 | 0.0 | |
| Newspoll (2 week) | -0.7 | -1.7 | 0.7 | -2.4 | -3.7 | 3.6 | |
| Nielsen (2 week) | -1.7 | -2.7 | 3.0 | -3.4 | -2.7 | 0.6 | |
| Essential (2 week) | -1.7 | -5.7 | 0.7 | -3.4 | 0.3 | 1.6 |
Actually those very onesided internet polls help to discredit the Ltd News and like websites as unrepresentative places?
still no articles on the submitted costing but this ealrier analysis just came through
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-reports/tony-abbott-377m-out-in-election-policy-sums/story-fn5ko0pw-1225907041859
Greens & Labor should talk asap to get a Carbon Tax through the Senate next year. You heard right, a simple tax on carbon – shared by industry & consumers. Give us our medicine & give to us soon.
Higher electricity costs? Yep. Solution, consume less power.
bg
some peepsd on twitter noticed that most analysis is of the approve type
a little fatty said it was out by between 6-10 billion
but hey why quibble
the meeja wont
🙁
night fellow serfs
@3653, yep that’s one thing that really amazes me is how people are blissfully unaware of all the electricity that just does nothing useful.
I do believe they have the core values, and they do occupy a certain place on the political spectrum, however its the organisational discipline that worries me. the whole ALP preference deal was terribly handled by them.
[Isn’t it good to realise that the blogosphere actually caused Galaxy and Sky to reassess their tactics. If twitter and bloggers hadn’t caused a stink then Julia would have had a stacked audience again tonight.
A big one up to the alternate media.]
ABC next
[Higher electricity costs? Yep. Solution, consume less power.]
Bingo!
All this freaking whinging I hear about higher prices, it is such dishonest selfish bullshit. Somebody has gotta pay, and it should be primarily the end user. Don’t like it? Use less.
William – the SA trend for JWS look out of kilter – in your heading commentary you refer to 56/44 to Labor but in the Table summary you show -1.6 swing against Labor?
yeah i thought the whole idea of dealing with CC was to change our ways!
will watch for the news tomorrow — night all!
The likes of Sky are far more sensitive to market reaction that might come in the form of Twitter reaction etc. In the case of the ABC, it is a much more complex scenario, related to the make-up of the ABC board, the endless machinations of how editorial policy settings are determined etc etc. Don’t expect such a nimble response from the ABC as from Sky.
Apols
just checked
the 6-10 billion is on the coalitions baseline
QED
IN 2012-13
8.5 BILLION
DEFICIT
IN 2013/2014
4.8 BILLION
DEFICIT
SNAFU
gnite
[Hope that info is going into the twittersphere — give the newsmedia something to think about when they look at their own assessments. ]
ABC24 have been the worst exponents of the ‘oh didn’t he do well’ lie
Greens & Labor should talk asap to get a Carbon Tax through the Senate next year. You heard right, a simple tax on carbon – shared by industry & consumers. Give us our medicine & give to us soon.
I actually suspect if Labor win the the Greens hold the balance of power, Labor will still seek to do a deal with the Coalition on a Carbon tax.
If Labor wins with a Greens BoP senate, they hold all the cards. They can say to the the Coalition ‘compromise with us on this or we will go to the greens and pass legislation you like even less.’ If the Coalition support it, it destroys their ability to attack it, having voted on it themselves, which I think was Labor’s plan last year to begin with. If they refuse to back it, Labor can go to the Greens and pass it anyway, and stronger legislation at that. This has the potential to again be a very big wedge issue for the Coalition, and Abbott could find himself knifed over it himself.
This goes not just for the ETS but for every piece of legislation, Labor has the option of threatening the Coalition about going to the Greens, and actually going to the Greens in the face of Coalition intransigence.
The only way they can cut that much is by cutting services, which they will not announce till after election.
bris
the bottom line is they will actually increase the spend
the doofuses have both double counted, and as identified by Ruawake, counted the MRT as a saving
FMD
my youngest wouldnt have made such a BASIC mistake
🙁
NB
tho he does have problems with millions and brazillions
afterall he is just 11
[ Don’t expect such a nimble response from the ABC as from Sky.]
Alias I don’t, eventual would be ok
Is the dubious accounting going to be headlines tomorrow the way it would be if it was Labor at fault?
Night Jen , night all…as always enjoyed your company…now I will just check if I am still allowed to share the big bed or am in the little one…sooner this is over, sooner the h/hold returns to normal 🙂 bye for now thinking very positive after Julias brilliant performance.
3665
The Magical Liopleurodon
Sounds good to me. In fact, given that situation in the senate, Labor would have the chance to introduce a whole raft of serious reforms during the next parliament using those tactics. The Coalition, of course, will be tearing their hair out at being thus rendered so impotent. Fun times ahead, methinks. 😉
I think the last two days of the campaign are going to be a debacle for Abbott, and this may well show up on Saturday.
Wakefield, the 56-44 is from Newspoll, not JWS.
[I think the last two days of the campaign are going to be a debacle for Abbott, and this may well show up on Saturday.]
Because of their costings going into the final days?
Psephos, while I would like to have your enthusiasm, I fear that the MSM will not cooperate.
I’ve written a very brief piece here: http://dailybludge.com.au/2010/08/the-end-is-nigh/
I’d be ecstatic to be proven wrong this Saturday, but I fear that our democracy is being eroded by a self-serving media that wishes to put the free-market liberals back into power. If Labor loses they will be in the wilderness for a very very long time.
JJ, have a good night sleep – you’ll feel differently in the morning 🙂
Sadly for the Libs the real economic debate will occur after they have lost the election.
Happily for Australia non one will GAS.
[If Labor wins with a Greens BoP senate, they hold all the cards. They can say to the the Coalition ‘compromise with us on this or we will go to the greens and pass legislation you like even less.’ If the Coalition support it, it destroys their ability to attack it, having voted on it themselves, which I think was Labor’s plan last year to begin with. If they refuse to back it, Labor can go to the Greens and pass it anyway, and stronger legislation at that. This has the potential to again be a very big wedge issue for the Coalition, and Abbott could find himself knifed over it himself.]
Well three more sleeps – but i think the Libs not been able to block the senate for the first time, in a long time, will be a game changer – not sure how it will play out – but it will make a difference.
Adam/Psephos – I certainly hope you are right.
@george Thanks for the encouraging words, but the reason I stayed up was to check the headlines on all the tabloids for tomorrow.
Daily Telegraph – “Labor pollie’s secret lovechild”
Courier Mail – “Gillard narrow winner at forum” (article contains numerous references to Kevin Rudd)
Herald Sun – “Time to decide” (a plug for Tony’s new HECS volunteer scheme)
Adealide Now – “He said, she said… who won?”
SMH – “Abbott’s debt pledge”
The Age – “Our surplus bigger: Libs”
*sigh*
This is interesting:
Oh well, there goes another $2.5 billion….
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/coalitions-surplus-claims-sunk-by-attack-on-hollow-log/story-fn59niix-1225907049110
Incidentally, hasn’t Shanahan been quiet?
After this election the MSM might start to realise that they do not lead opinion.
Yes, a close election might mean more ratings on election night, but the cost benefit is appalling. Everyone covers election night, margins are a bees dick either way.
I actually think the MSM are very confused at the monent, they actually do not really know how to cover an election campaign.
They are stuck between the rocks of traditional journalism and their perpsective of new media.
Will take a few years for them to realise but new media is just like old media.
Quality gets read and crap gets ignored.
Quality journalism is quality journalism.
My advice would be stop being such try hards and do what journalists should do.
Report, analyse, think.
LOL http://www.youtube.com/thegreatbignew
shannas has crawled under his rock crying his eyes out.
[@george Thanks for the encouraging words, but the reason I stayed up was to check the headlines on all the tabloids for tomorrow.
Daily Telegraph – “Labor pollie’s secret lovechild”
Courier Mail – “Gillard narrow winner at forum” (article contains numerous references to Kevin Rudd)
Herald Sun – “Time to decide” (a plug for Tony’s new HECS volunteer scheme)
Adealide Now – “He said, she said… who won?”
SMH – “Abbott’s debt pledge”
The Age – “Our surplus bigger: Libs”
*sigh*
]
take heart that print media is in is death throes
[Quality gets read and crap gets ignored.
Quality journalism is quality journalism.
My advice would be stop being such try hards and do what journalists should do.
]
exacty, the game is changing, the power of a few to influence is diminishing – not there yet – but the trend is good
lets face it most of these journos have lost their credibility anyway
I am also starting to think that Labor could win bigger than indications have been so far. Not losing any seats (overall) is now a reasonable possibility, and gaining one or two is no longer fantasy land.
[I’d be ecstatic to be proven wrong this Saturday, but I fear that our democracy is being eroded by a self-serving media that wishes to put the free-market liberals back into power. If Labor loses they will be in the wilderness for a very very long time.]
I don’t think for a moment Labor will lose. I think the issue now is whether Labor will get back with a narrow majority, or with a majority only down a little from the current one. Labor won 83 seats in 2007. I will regard 83 or more on Saturday as a great triumph. I’ll be happy with 80.
The media dinosaurs don’t have nearly as much power as they think they do, and people here spend far too much time agonising about what the old media is up to. The young and the educated increasingly get their news and opinions from the new media, while the swinging voters don’t pay much attention to the media at all. Most of the right wing old media is preaching to the converted.
they printed absolute shite about kevin rudd and then seemed to want him back afterwards.
Quite a lot of hostility towards the Greens from some of you Labor folk. If it wasn’t for the Greens you’d be struggling right about now.
@Psephos
[The young and the educated increasingly get their news and opinions from the new media, while the swinging voters don’t pay much attention to the media at all. Most of the right wing old media is preaching to the converted.]
While I agree with you that the youth vote is going to be firmly tilted to the left, my issue is with the swinging voters. Yes they are disinterested. However it is my belief that they will follow the overarching media narrative. They only get tidbits of information here and there, and it’s from that they will make their decisions. Overwhelmingly the MSM is against the Labor party. I can’t speak greatly on the free-to-air networks because I rarely watch them, but the newspapers are by and large pushing for Abbott to take over. I believe Channel 9 ran a BER hit piece on ACA last night. The ABC is biased at every level. That leave 7 and 10 (and the rural stations), which I’ll leave to others to draw conclusions on.
It’s been said before. If Labor wins, it’s in spite of the combined weight of an overwhelming section of the media. It will be the beginning of the end for our democracy. I truly believe that.
And if it wasn’t for Labor the Greens would be a small, leftish, irrelevant, fringe party forever ostracised from the mainstream, right-wing of politics.
Sorry to clarify my last comment, I meant to say – if Labor loses, it will be the beginning of the end for our democracy. I truly believe that.
If it wasn’t for the Greens we’d have a carbon tax in place now.
@getluv & BB
Nothing wrong with the Greens. I see them as the ALP left faction’s new home. It will be most interesting to see how well they can work with Labor, if Labor does indeed gain government.
I’ll go so far to say Ill be *surprised* if the ALP loses any net seats on 2007.
And if they do lose a net seat – it’ll be the one that goes to the Greens (not that Im putting Melb in the bag – by any means. Its 50-50 there). My bets on 82 or 83.
Say 83 for the record.
Actually, there’s some fun to be had in an “If it wasn’t for the Greens” thread.
I’ll start the ball rolling.
If it wasn’t for the Greens Troy Buswell would be WA Treasurer.
If it wasn’t for the Greens Dick Smith would be over a hundred thousand dollars better off.