Nielsen JWS Research marginals mega-poll (and Galaxy and Morgan)

The super-sample poll published by Fairfax, covering 22,000 voters in 54 seats (about 400 each), turns out to have been conducted not by Nielsen, but an outfit called JWS Research whose automated phone polling on the weekend were widely noted at the time. The Sydney Morning Herald sells its managing director John Scales as “a renowned pollster” who was director of Morgan from 1992 to 1995, and research director at Crosby Textor from 2002 until earlier this year. However, its methodology is untried, at least in the Australian context: presumably pollsters go to the expense of hiring interviewers for a very good reason (UPDATE: Lukas in comments points to the assessment of legendary US polling analyst Nate Silver, that “there’s not really convincing evidence about whether IVR polls [robopolls] are inferior to regular ones”). Nonetheless, the general tenor of the results is in keeping with polling overall, give or take a few surprises. Taken together, the results point to 79 seats for Labor and 68 for the Coalition with three independents – curiously, the poll did not cover Melbourne.

Queensland. Labor to lose Brisbane, Bonner, Petrie, Leichhardt, Forde, Dawson, Flynn and Dickson, but hold Moreton, Longman and Herbert.

New South Wales. Labor to lose Lindsay, Bennelong, Macarthur and Robertson while gaining Paterson and Cowper; Labor to hold Greenway, Dobell, Page, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore and Macquarie.

Victoria. Labor to gain McEwen, La Trobe and Dunkley, but lose Corangamite.

Elsewhere. Labor to gain Boothby, lose Hasluck and Swan, and hold Solomon.

We also have Galaxy polling another 800 voters in four Queensland marginals – Bonner, Forde, Herbert and Longman – and found happier results for Labor than the Queensland sample from the weekend’s super-survey, with a swing of 3.5 per cent rather than 5.4 per cent. Morgan has also published small-sample polls from Bennelong (300) and La Trobe (200) conducted just this evening, which respectively have the Liberals leading 50.5-49.5 and Labor leading 53-47.

UPDATE: And now state-by-state breakdowns from the past two weeks of Newspoll, both of which had the national result at 52-48. The state two-party are results are 52-48 to Labor in New South Wales (a 1.7 per cent swing), 52-48 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4 per cent swing), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (0.7 per cent swing to Labor), 56-44 to Labor in South Australia (3.6 per cent swing to Labor) and 57-43 to the Coalition in Western Australia (3.7 per cent swing to the Coalition).

UPDATE 2: Recent state-level polling results in terms of Labor swing:

TOTAL NSW VIC Qld WA SA
JWS Research -1.1 -2.1 2.4 -5.3 -0.5 -1.6
Galaxy marginals -1.7 -3.1 1.6 -4.3 -2.1 0.0
Newspoll (2 week) -0.7 -1.7 0.7 -2.4 -3.7 3.6
Nielsen (2 week) -1.7 -2.7 3.0 -3.4 -2.7 0.6
Essential (2 week) -1.7 -5.7 0.7 -3.4 0.3 1.6

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,759 comments on “Nielsen JWS Research marginals mega-poll (and Galaxy and Morgan)”

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  2. [I should clearly have known about Ragnarok]

    Ah the Norse religion! What would society be like right now had that taken hold in Europe instead of Christianity?

  10. I actually thought the footage of Scott Morrison going to Nauru was actually quite bad for the libs – the footage journos took of it looked so run down, desolate and awful – overgrown with weeds and little ramshackle huts. I actually think a lot of people looking at that who might agree with the abstract concept of ‘offshore processing’ would think twice about whether they would want to force people to go there.

  13. [as a social progressive I’ve long wanted more from the Greens. Bob has been a fantastic leader, but i’m not sure those following in his footsteps can continue his work. they remind me a lot of the Dems. strong leader builds a small but growing base… next gen let it fall apart. for me its about party structure. say what you will about Labor factions, but they know how to organise and get the party moving as one. the greens are showing plenty of cracks regarding the strength of their ‘party machine’. the party needs to be self-sustaining. i’m not sure Bob is going to deliver that before he goes.]

    great observation – the greens will get tested in the next pariliment – regardless of the outcome. Having the balance of power could be the making or breaking of the party.

    I know of one very senior green party official (i know they are non-heirarchial) but this person thinks they will get smashed by having the balance of power. I hope this view is wrong and they rise to the challenge – but it will be a challenge

  14. [ Correct. And for those here who don’t understand enough about why the NBN will be very important for any nation, look up distributed computing and how critical it (is) and will be to science and technology industries ]

    Exactly, it’s about bandwidth sure but latency/ propagation delay are where fibre really shines. Every day we exploit this very property, and it simply is not feasible with wireless.

  15. [An unbiased comment in the Australian – am I awake or is this a dream]

    It’s a dream. You’re naked and at work and that’s your third grade teacher delivering supplies (which, for some reason are grapes)

  19. Servant,
    [An unbiased comment in the Australian – am I awake or is this a dream]

    Don’t get too worked up. It’s Peter Van Os. He must want to return to academia and is burning his bridges.

  22. 3577

    The Greens are much more stable than the Democrats were because they have a much bigger natural base, a clear place in the political spectrum, more state representation and local government representation (I don`t think that the Democrats ever had any Councillors).

    The Greens are unlike the DLP in that by and large they send their preferences to the ALP where they got their voters from in the first place and have different criticisms because the are attacking the ALP from the other side to the Coalition and so won`t just look like another partner in the Coalition.

    The Greens are here to stay.

  24. [What have I missed?]

    You almost missed the anniversary of Long Tan and Genghis Khan’s death. Still time left to raise one in memory of the dead.

  25. [blue_green – Bob Brown said today, the treasury wouldn’t cost Greens policies]

    Its probably a shame. They could actually use it as a tool to work out the true costs on a more stringent climate change policy.

  29. So tomorrow:
    Julia is doing the National Press Club, and maybe a campaign stop in either Gilmore or Eden Monaro.
    Phoney is chasing the redneck vote in Western Sydney.

  31. Public Servant, there’ll be a lot of excellent media jobs going begging in the immediate post election era, especially at the ABC and certain opinionistas want to be in the running…..

    Beats the crap out of being a senior master at an underperforming teachers college. for PVO anyway.

  32. Sound conclusion to the OZ column by Peter Van Os:

    [Abbott wanted the community forum and refused to debate the prime minister before hand on the economy. It played into Labor’s advertising pitch that he was afraid to match his economic know how and credentials with Gillard’s. Instead he deliberately tried to cajole her into a short debate the evening before which he knew didn’t fit in with her campaign schedule. Tonight he got exactly what he wanted with the venue, the structure of the evening and the forum, yet he still was judged the loser by a bare majority.

    The close Labor win could be a sign of things to come as counting begins on Saturday night. Certainly Gillard’s win makes that more likely.]

  33. [Exactly, it’s about bandwidth sure but latency/ propagation delay are where fibre really shines.]

    Yes, the latency issue is a big plus for fibre.

  34. [Phoney is chasing the redneck vote in Western Sydney.]

    And pulling an all nighter to boot!

    A lot of votes to be gotten at 3am!

  35. [I know of one very senior green party official (i know they are non-heirarchial) but this person thinks they will get smashed by having the balance of power. I hope this view is wrong and they rise to the challenge – but it will be a challenge]

    I agree – this will be a big challenge – but dont forget they are not without some ‘corporate’ experience – ACT and Tas. This is a bigger game, of course, but they need to play straight, clear lines across the whole term – have a strategy thats public, that reflect their voters core values, but is also pragmatic enough that it can be stuck to across 3 years, and shows preparedness to negotiate with govt.

    I think they’ll do it – better than the Dems – as the Greens have core values to turn to. It was never clear to me what the Dems ones were: it seemed to depend on the leader at the time.

  44. [I think they’ll do it – better than the Dems – as the Greens have core values to turn to.]

    I hope you’re right. Australia democracy desperately needs a counter balance.

  45. [TSOP

    he is hoping to catch those tarago drivers real early

    one B nelson said it was a good idea]

    No tarago drivers awake at 3AM, unless changing nappies or dealign with sick kids.

  50. bg
    you obviously have never owned a tarago

    gawd man kids can be concieved nurtured and even raised in a tarago

    they even cause LOTO to get all taery and emotional

    Dont underestimate the power of the tarago

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