Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Crikey reports that what is presumably the last Essential Research poll for the campaign has Labor’s lead at 51-49, down from 52-48 last week. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two points to 44 per cent and Labor is down two to 39 per cent, with the Greens steady on 10 per cent. As always, it should be noted that Essential Research is a composite of two weeks’ combined polling: reading between the lines, the week-level results for Labor through the course of the campaign seem to have gone 55, 55, 53, 51, 51. Jason Whittaker at Crikey relates:

There’s little movement in personal approval ratings, with Julia Gillard climbing a point to 46% approval (her disapproval ratings remains steady at 40%), while Tony Abbott also jumps a point but remains behind on 41% approval (44% disapproval). Head-to-head, 46% believe Julia Gillard would make a better prime minister (up one point) ahead of Tony Abbott on 35% (up two points). Gillard’s attention on the economy in the final week of the campaign is backed by Essential. Asked which leader would better handle another financial crisis should it eventuate, 42% named the Labor leader while 35% nominated Tony Abbott and the Liberals.

Full report from Essential to follow shortly.

General:

George Megalogenis in The Australian argues that while the mortgage belt “has less reason to be grumpy with Julia Gillard this year than it had been with John Howard in 2007”, owing to slightly lower interest rates and an even lower real debt burden than at that time, “the grey belt has a simple financial trigger to loathe Labor, and to long for a return to the Coalition’s brand of economic management, because superannuation nest eggs have been smashed over the past three years”. He also says Labor’s troubles in Queensland can in part be traced to the sharpest rises in petrol prices in the nation, “while Brisbane home owners have seen their capital gains party come to an end at a time when the rest of the nation was still booming”.

Peter Hartcher of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that according to media buying agency MindShare, Labor spent $3.5 million on television advertising in capital cities during the second fortnight of the campaign compared with $3 million for the Coalition, after “sitting out” the second week of the campaign. A “close student of the TV ad industry” says Labor is screening four attack ads for every one positive, while the Liberal ratio is three to one.

Steve Lewis of the Daily Telegraph reports an Auspoll survey finds Wayne Swan with a 54-46 lead over Joe Hockey as “best able to manage the budget”, 32 per cent rating the Building the Education Revolution program a success against 42 per cent who deem it a failure, and a narrow majority being comfortable with the Greens holding the balance of power.

Local:

Longman (Qld, Labor 1.7%): News Limited has obtained footage of an incident in which a Labor agitator was set upon by a campaigner for Liberal National Party candidate Wyatt Roy. As AAP reports it, Roy “can be seen just metres away on his phone during the altercation, but does not intervene”.

Dawson (Qld, Labor 2.4%): Labor candidate Mike Brunker has been involved in an altercation with 68-year-old Bowen Turf Club president Cyril Vains during a dispute about the former’s attempts to place election signs near the entrance to the racetrack. Brunker says the club president “king hit” him on the nose in an “unprovoked assault”. His account is backed by Whitsunday deputy mayor Rogin Taylor, who says Vains “seemed intent on fighting Mike”. The turf club says Vains has “scratches and a bruise from being punched in the face”.

Parkes (NSW, Nationals 13.7%): Barrie Cassidy referred to a strong independent prospect in Parkes on yesterday’s Insiders. This turns out to be John Clements, a former staffer to New England independent Tony Windsor, who has been talking up his chances. Windsor also rates Louise Burge “a good chance in Farrer”.

Lingiari (NT, Labor 11.2%): The management committee of the Northern Territory Country Liberal Party has defied its leader in the Territory parliament, Terry Mills, by refusing to disendorse Lingiari candidate Leo Abbott for neglecting to inform the party he had pleaded guilty to breaching a domestic violence order.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,802 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Individual seat betting markets moving the wrong way tonight.

    Bennelong Lindsay Hasluck going bad

    Overall they say hung parliament

  2. [I have to admit that the fibs webpage inspired me]

    The fibs inspire you?

    I suppose that makes sense. They inspire me… to vomit.

  3. Gusface@1745

    Frank

    chop chop

    what is the state of play in WA?

    See Bilbo’s post re the Fin Review 🙂

    From today’s Financial Review:

    Labor insiders told the AFR they were growing confident they were ahead in up to three (WA) marginals – Liberal-held Canning as well as Swan and Hasluck. Although one said the result in each would likely come down to “between 500 and 600 votes” … While the polls suggest a status quo of 11 Liberal-held seats, one senior Labor figure said that in Canning, high-profile former state infrastructure minister Alannah MacTiernan was pushing incumbent Don Randall to the wire. In a sign that the Liberals are worried, former prime minister John Howard, who has many admirers in WA, will hold a fund-raiser in the seat for Mr Randall this week.

    The assessment within the more seasoned sections of the Labor camp is that while the election is very tight, and the swings across the country and across different electorates will be wild, Labor enters the last week just ahead and will fall over the line … Long-standing campaigners on both sides believe the next three days are the most important when it comes to voters who are still making up their minds on who they will vote for. And the government is in the better position in this regard. Labor’s launch today will be light on announcements and low-key, aiming to maximise the government’s apparent economic conservatism as it launches TV ads that portray Abbott as too big a risk to the economy with the world economy still shaky.

    William Bowe@399

    From today’s Financial Review:

    Labor insiders told the AFR they were growing confident they were ahead in up to three (WA) marginals – Liberal-held Canning as well as Swan and Hasluck. Although one said the result in each would likely come down to “between 500 and 600 votes” … While the polls suggest a status quo of 11 Liberal-held seats, one senior Labor figure said that in Canning, high-profile former state infrastructure minister Alannah MacTiernan was pushing incumbent Don Randall to the wire. In a sign that the Liberals are worried, former prime minister John Howard, who has many admirers in WA, will hold a fund-raiser in the seat for Mr Randall this week.

    The assessment within the more seasoned sections of the Labor camp is that while the election is very tight, and the swings across the country and across different electorates will be wild, Labor enters the last week just ahead and will fall over the line … Long-standing campaigners on both sides believe the next three days are the most important when it comes to voters who are still making up their minds on who they will vote for. And the government is in the better position in this regard. Labor’s launch today will be light on announcements and low-key, aiming to maximise the government’s apparent economic conservatism as it launches TV ads that portray Abbott as too big a risk to the economy with the world economy still shaky.

    And with Lannie only a couple of hundred votes behind in Canning according to ther Sunday Times – and Howie doing a Fundraiser for Randall.

    We’re good – Libs Rooted 🙂

  4. My prediction well- gone are Dawson, Herbert, leichardt, gilmore, lindsay, macquarie, robertson, swan, hasluck, solomon, melbourne…..

    but hello Mckewan (for 1 election only), la trobe and dunkley (sorry Glen)

    And maybe boothby and solomon not gone…..all others ALP hold.

    ALP -8

  5. [how do haikus work?]
    tsop 🙂
    I googled it, seems there are a few ways to do them. I went for the twelve(ish) syllables (in english) kind.
    Seems to equate to the saying, ‘Brevity is the soul of wit.’

    Explains Tony the Witless.

  6. Frank , you notice tht C 10 showed lib held seat & Lib candidate first , but when they came to Labor held seat th Labor candidate got shown 2nd

  7. Ron@1761

    Frank , you notice tht C 10 showed lib held seat & Lib candidate first , but when they came to Labor held seat th Labor candidate got shown 2nd

    Noticed that.

    Influencing the vote ?

    and as for the cop running – doen’t he realise most of the issues with Black Saturday are state based ?

  8. on Gilligans Island site , we had a blogger we christened ‘one hand clapping showy’ , and it wasn’t j/v although he did ran close a 3rd for privilege

  9. Do you think people may vote for Labor if they think there is a chance of Labor winnning, so they have a member of the government as their rep? Or just a non-consideration?

  10. Hmmm, I wonder how many ways I can describe what Tony Abbott should do with himself, without using crude language.

    Tony Abbott should do with himself what he has done with Marg no less (and possibly no more) than 3 times…

  11. Frank

    “Noticed that.
    Influencing the vote ?
    and as for the cop running – doen’t he realise most of the issues with Black Saturday are state based ?

    yea , we’ll win that and latrobe , and 2 othrs is long shots depending on a larger swing

  12. Seeing Dunkley fall would be nice… watching the fib analysts trying to say “but but, let’s see what happens over west first…”

  13. Benchmark by Grant Burge 2007 Shiraz, Tanunda, South Australia. Can’t remember getting that one in, not a bad drop.

    oh yeah, election polls.

  14. Hmm, more detail on the OO:

    Labor has already announced a job relocation package as part of its re-election campaign, but the Coalition measures go much further.

    They are also more punitive because under the Abbott plan, jobseekers who do not stay in work for six months will be suspended from welfare payments for six months, unless there are reasonable grounds. Under Labor’s policy, a suspension of just three months is imposed.

    However, the Coalition measures do not go as far as originally planned, which involved forcing under-30s off the dole, rather than giving them the choice.

     http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/bonus-for-young-jobless/story-fn59niix-1225906085642 

  15. [Hmm, Abbott offering Bribes so people can keep their job.]

    Cool. Now they have money for weed to smoke in the mining camps. Gotta keep the slaves sedated.

  16. [Hmm, Abbott offering Bribes so people can keep their job.]
    Dear God/ess almighty will this freaking stupidity never cease. Please spare me haven’t i suffered enough. I must have been a highway robber in my last lifetime to be sentenced to listening to this utter merde forever.

    I used to be a case officer in the CES during that terrible recession of the 90’s. You can’t just throw money at people (young or otherwise) and say ‘Go fix your life”. You have to address the reasons why people are long term unemployed (LTU) before they can hold down a job AND you need a good relationship with employers willing to work with you for real long term success. People end up ltu for lots of reasons and holding a cash carrot in front of them expecting it to motivate will do more harm than good.

    Jeepers, Tony truly is freakin w@nker.

  17. If Tony Abbott were as concerned as he professess, about people being at sea in leaky boats- is seems contradictory to say that when they are perhaps half way or two thirds of the way here ,to then send them back in the same leaky boats.

    Please explain- sea calmer perhaps?

  18. One of the things I will always be grateful for is the Labor kept people in employment during the GFC. I have seen the effects on people up close and there is a human face and a human cost in all those percentage points.

    When I hear the Fibs casually brush aside the saving of jobs through the stimulus as if it were nothing much at all, I bristle.

  19. The following is stolen from Antony Green’s assessment..

    [On past evidence, Darwin voters have an excellent ability to vote for the party likely to form government. Given the Territory’s reliance on Commonwealth revenue, such enlightened self-interest is unsurprising. While the Territory Labor government is currently unpopular, it is likely that the voters of Darwin and Palmerston will elect a Labor MP if they think the Gillard government will be re-elected.]

    Now the question is.. what impression are territory voters being given of who is likely to win from their local media? What’s the press like there generally? Have any editorials come down in favour of Labor there?

  20. Morgan special McEwan poll just out
    It shows a PP swing of 5.5 % to Labor…with a Green vote of 16.5 ..double last time !

    The final vote is 55.5 to 44.5.
    A swing of this size in Vic will give Labor ..La Trobe,Casey and Dunkley..as well in Victoria and save Corangamite,,and probably kill any chance of a Green win in Melbourne,where Labor mught get a clear majority.

  21. Psephos
    Posted Monday, August 16, 2010 at 8:29 pm | Permalink

    “Someone mentioned earlier that Gillard barely mentioned climate in her speech. That shows how comprehensively this debate has been lost in the minds of the electorate (apart from the 20% or so who care about it, but they’re already locked-in voters). Now maybe the Greens will see the enormity of what they did last December. They not only KILLED the ETS, they killed the whole cause of action on climate change in Australia, just as Phil Cleary killed the republic. As a political issue it’s as dead as White Australia, probably deader.”

    correct , and proved by Julia NOT promising she will put a price on carbon
    (I say this to correct th false Diogenous claim I said Julai would do so)

    I find i amazing that Greens and Liberal bloggers continue to lie denying that there Partys respectively blocked passage of a 5% CPRS (at both th 5% cut and a market ETS mechanism Garnaut himself recomended in his Final Report )

    Perhaps its there shame & guilt that havng demanded all ( a uneconamic non negotaible 25% cut) or nothing , we got nothing co2 mitigation Legislation operating in Australia at all , and so these Greens and Liberals want to pass th buck for THERE shameful anti CC deeds

    Worse , there is no evidense of public support for actualy PAYING for th cost of fossil mitigation , and no poll with this crucial Q in it for obvious raesons

    There is furthermore no Politcal consensus by Partys , hense Julia’s Assembly and expert panels to drive public opinion to ccept paying for a price on carbin (and which she said Labor’s 5% ETS is Assembly’s starting point benchmark)

    and if then th Liberals and Greens continue with there past cynicol vote chasing misuse of CC as an issue in 2011 , then they wont be a price on carbon before 2013 , or later

    …..because a Labor Govt will PRIMARILY decide what cut % and what permits & subsidies apply (and not either of th two then 2011 Senate BOP Partys , Liberals and Greens)

  22. Ron @1793, there wasn’t any point in mentioning climate. In reality the people who have shifted their vote in protest over the ETS and gone to Green are overwhelmingly Labor voters and their preferences simply wander back to Labor. Trying to win back those green votes simply means losing votes elsewhere. As TA gets even more shrill and desperate he starts going “Labor will bring in a carbon tax.. Labor will raise your bills.. Labor will eat your kittens”.. its sad but its an example of the kind of election we would have had.

  23. Yes, Puff.. huge audience. Half of them supposedly Liberal, and only a fraction of those bothered clapping. Gay marriage and the NBN got bigger audience responses.

  24. centaur @1794, how come? I’m trying to collate all the different comments Ive seen here regarding individual seats and so far I can’t find a compelling logic that would take me beyond state based polls and simple statistics.

  25. The other weird thing that seems to be missing this time around is all the argument about demographics, how they would supposedly react to the present campaign, and whether that is reflected more or less in any given seats.

    All I have so far is *supposedly* certain seats in Sydney or Brisbane are supposed to respond more than most over boat people and general urban-sprawl issues. And that there seem to be more greens, those seem to be more labor-escapees and there are apparently more women heading green.

    Also there are factors that suggest young voters particularly dislike abbott and this might be slightly increased by the decision to allow more of those onto the roll.. but.. again.. which seats does this matter?

  26. cud chewer
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 3:12 am | Permalink

    “Ron @1793, there wasn’t any point in mentioning climate. In reality the people who have shifted their vote in protest over the ETS and gone to Green are overwhelmingly Labor voters and their preferences simply wander back to Labor. Trying to win back those green votes simply means losing votes elsewhere. As TA gets even more shrill and desperate he starts going “Labor will bring in a carbon tax.. Labor will raise your bills.. Labor will eat your kittens”.. its sad but its an example of the kind of election we would have had.”

    agree cud , and we certainly would hav lost this 2010 election hense its not on ‘plate’ , and a DD earlier in year wuld gone same way A pity and shows a consensus is needed to progress back to pre 2009 public environmnet

    A change to Hockey or pref Turnbull will assist that process of getting public to face reality they will hav to actual pay in higher energy costs to achieve co2 mitigation

    We’ve seen in this campiagn cud , HOW a clear black & white issue of NBN optical fiber vs Abbotts wireless broadband is turned by Liberals AND MSN into a neg 43 billion ‘cost/waste’ and confused whole issue , so a CC price on carbon would be piece of cake for thems to confuse and scare on

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