Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor

UPDATE Delightfully, Galaxy has now come good with an identical set of primary vote figures to Newspoll. They have nonetheless come to a 51-49 two-party split rather than the 52-48 from Newspoll, which can only have resulted from their calculation landing a fraction either side of 51.5-48.5. The 1700 sample from Newspoll and the 800 (I presume) sample from Galaxy can be combined to achieve a super-sample of 2500 and an unusually low margin of error of 2 per cent. Galaxy also finds “only 43 per cent of voters believe he is up to the top job and 48 per cent have major reservations”, suggesting Labor’s late campaign attack ads might find a receptive audience.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll gives Labor a morale-boosting 52-48 two-party lead from primary votes of 38 per cent for Labor, 42 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 42 per cent and 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott has gone backwards: approval down three to 41 per cent, disapproval up three to 41-49. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, Gillard and Abbott both down one to 49 per cent and 34 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full Newspoll report here. A question of strength of voting intention finds no distinction between the two parties, contrary to earlier polls which found the Coalition vote slightly firmer. Labor’s lead as party expected to win has narrowed over a week from 56-23 to 50-26.

UPDATE 2: The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,115 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor”

  1. My say,

    The ABC reporter would be in her late 20’s or early 30’s. Totally indistinguishable from the dozens who have been rolled through SkyNews over the years.

    I forgot to note in my post that Bob Hawke, who just happened to beat Peacock in those two campaigns, must also have been “disappeared” by the ABC.

    Serves Hawkie right for having the cheek to be out there campaigning for Gillard rather than showing the sort of the Peacock-like discipline which the Labor Party can only dream of.

  2. [957 al palster
    Posted Monday, August 9, 2010 at 12:33 pm | Permalink
    This campaign has turned. For the first time, its heading Julia’s way – on style, substance and reporting. But the result will still be knife-edge.]

    if we can get our primary vote up 2 percent will that help that knife edge

  3. pancho much sorry, remembered that as soon as I hit ‘post’.
    [the All Whites were the only undefeated team at the World Cup.]

  4. [1001 Atticus
    Posted Monday, August 9, 2010 at 12:59 pm | Permalink
    My say,]

    when i first read it i thought they meant that the libs had rolled in a republican to help them nearly had fit. then i thought who peacock, this girl obviously was not born then ,, who was it that peacock and ? played draughts with, they use to change with each other was that in opposition, then the was the man that died, he and peacock but there was another one , alwasy one or the other it was quite funny those days., they didnt seem to govern much or anything new they just seemed to take turns in being opposition leader so some one should educate this young lass.

  5. Is this what they call equal time. Hockey is taking much more than Swannie.

    Come on Swannie, get some guts and intervene. Uhlmann is looking at Hockey as tho he’s dead scared of offending him and I’m getting shirty!!

  6. Is it just me or does Hockey not believe his own words?

    I bloody hope he doesn’t believe his own words because this man could be the next treasurer of Australia.

  7. victoria
    [Is it just me or does Hockey not believe his own words?]
    He is busy trying to remember the lines, It gets harder as one gets older, a friend into amateur theatre once told me.

  8. Just decided to join the fray. An excellent article on the NBN here: http://www.computerworld.com.au/article/356221/opinion_mr_turnbull_need_do_numbers/?fp=4&fpid=78268965

    Apparently Malcolm Turnbull has said some silly things about how we don’t need this technology this morning and the IT press are right onto it! Saying that we don’t need FTTH because people are happy with ADSL2+ is very short sighted. What the NBN will allow us to do in the future is entirely unknown at this point. Judging the NBN by what we use the Internet for today is equivalent to imagining our copper wire would for only ever be used for the voice calls of a century ago.

  9. some one had better ask ullman DOES HE HAVE A STOP WATCH

    i cannot because i have emailed him twice now someone else take a turn

  10. That is so unfair. Swan got about three sentences before Hockey was allowed to waffle on. DO YOUR JOB UHLMANN.

  11. Bias can often be perceived only by the biased. However, when ABC News Radio announces it is going to assess the Liberal launch and the expert they have selected to do so is a former advisor to Peter Costello, with no blance whatsoever, then I am not sure how the bias can be denied.

  12. To be entirely fair, debating a sitting Treasurer who has even a reasonably good story to tell is probably the hardest stand-up gig in politics, harder than debating a PM because you have to be specific and can’t waffle on about generalities. Treasurers have a whole department to give them all the facts and figures they want. Shadow Treasurers have an office full of Young Lib hopefuls and the IPA. It’s an unfair match. Swan didn’t look nearly this good when he was Shadow and Costello was the incumbent.

    Having made all due allowances, however, Hockey is still woeful. He doesn’t do his homework, he tries to bluff and bluster his way through, and when it doesn’t work he loses his cool and shouts. A very bad look. I met a former Liberal frontbencher at a polling booth yesterday. I said, who will be your next leader if Abbott loses? He said, Hockey probably, and then we’ll be in real trouble because he’s hopeless.

  13. Uhmann’s body language is a dead give away, note attention to hockey, always looking across at him, looks like he is taking cues.

  14. if the public are watching then its good to let him waffle on.

    if this was in the u s it would be on in every bar in the land.

  15. Psephos.

    Based on Hockey’s performance today, how can anyone in their right mind vote that lot in?

    Prior to this, Iwatched Julia’s presser at primary school. She put in an A plus performance.

  16. The Democrats have announced they will direct preferences to Labor in Sturt. Given that their vote was 1.17% in the 2007 election I’m not sure this is anything to write home about.

  17. [He said, Hockey probably, and then we’ll be in real trouble because he’s hopeless.]

    Not surprised by this statement, Pseph. He was a cuddly bear on Sunrise, but has shown he is no mental giant.

    It is a shame the whole country isn’t watching this — because sure as heck the press will spin it that Hockey won, or held his own.

  18. [Psephos, did the former frontbencher offer any thoughts on whether he thought the Liberals would win?]

    He said he thought it was too close to call. That’s what you usually say when you know you’re behind.

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