Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor

UPDATE Delightfully, Galaxy has now come good with an identical set of primary vote figures to Newspoll. They have nonetheless come to a 51-49 two-party split rather than the 52-48 from Newspoll, which can only have resulted from their calculation landing a fraction either side of 51.5-48.5. The 1700 sample from Newspoll and the 800 (I presume) sample from Galaxy can be combined to achieve a super-sample of 2500 and an unusually low margin of error of 2 per cent. Galaxy also finds “only 43 per cent of voters believe he is up to the top job and 48 per cent have major reservations”, suggesting Labor’s late campaign attack ads might find a receptive audience.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll gives Labor a morale-boosting 52-48 two-party lead from primary votes of 38 per cent for Labor, 42 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 42 per cent and 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott has gone backwards: approval down three to 41 per cent, disapproval up three to 41-49. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, Gillard and Abbott both down one to 49 per cent and 34 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full Newspoll report here. A question of strength of voting intention finds no distinction between the two parties, contrary to earlier polls which found the Coalition vote slightly firmer. Labor’s lead as party expected to win has narrowed over a week from 56-23 to 50-26.

UPDATE 2: The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,115 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor”

  1. ruawake

    from my recollection that was not the only time Costello said that he did not think Abbott was strong in economic matters.

  2. Victoria, he said Labor should pull if off air, and Abbott and Hockey are better at economic matters. Boy Costello is being grilled.

  3. [I am hoping that all of these events, and Barry’s spray on Onesiders, will force the general standards of journalism to rise by a couple of notches for the last couple of weeks.]

    No chance. The Latham stunt shows the MSM for what it is – a waste of space. They are the ones not subjecting Abbott to any scrutiny. Barry Cassidy is one of the worst offenders, he is a shocking interviewer who never puts the acid on Abbott and he still cannot get over the fact Rudd stood him up.

    [Just watching sky Costello is spitting chips over that Labor ad. Trying to turn his words around saying its Labor who are blocking every economic reform.]

    Excellent means the Ad is working perfectly.

  4. Itep

    Was Turnbull in hospital?

    Quite simply if Any Liberal member of parliament went into hospital, I would expect Abbott ” as leader” to call him/her to make sure they are ok

    Maybe Julia is not as human as other politician

    What a grub

  5. A friend of mine rang and told me he had seen the Costello ad (which also has an abbreviated version) FOUR TIMES in a one hour prime time show on Channel ten last night.

  6. The fact that corporate media such as ‘The Australian’ wants a conservative to be Prime Minister is understandable, as they perceive it to be in their interests. But the bias shown by the ABC is unforgivable. I know that many conservative people have complained (and still believe) that the ABC is left leaning (and they may have been right in the past) and that isn’t right other. But the fact that the ABC has been more favourable to the Coalition has been proven by independent studies.

    I have given up on Fran Kelly on RN long time ago (although as someone has mentioned she seems to be more balanced on ‘The Insiders’ for some reason). But news bulletins have been negative towards Labor for some time (as other have noticed that all the Government initiatives are reported through the Liberals perspective). I have to be careful not to see bias when there might not be, but for me 4 Corners making a program about people smugglers, and now another one on Thursday with now anti-migration ‘lets-blame-migrants-for-environmental-degradation’ exponent Dick Smith on Thursday (with an extra Q&A afterwards) seems to me strange. After all aren’t Asylum Seekers and immigration two of the Coalition’s strengths?

  7. triton @ 635

    [Fran Kelly declares 38% “not a winnable” primary vote, as though the 52% 2PP is either wrong or not important.]

    This sort of nonsense confirms that the ABC in general, and Fran Kelly in particular, are utterly inept and completely without credibility when it comes to analysis of even the basic aspects of politics and current affairs in this country.

    Surely the senior management of the ABC must listen to their own broadcasts, and therefore must be aware of this sort of outright falsehood being spruiked by their so-called political affairs reporters?

    Yet again, I have complained to the ABC today about this relentless anti-ALP bias and repetition of untruths by so many of their alleged ‘professional’ journalists.

    It is an ongoing farce, but we must maintain the pressure on the ABC by pointing out these consistent partisan reports by Coalition hacks and shills masquerading as objective journalists.

  8. Kezza

    Abbott cannot even manage his own financial affairs. He had to take out a larger mortgage after last election because he had taken a pay cut. Doesn’t he know the meaning of a budget??!!

  9. Talk about the loss of journalistic standards. O’brien spent a good portion of that interview asking Gillard about why she hadn’t visited rudd in hospital – a matter of enormous importance to the nation obviously.

    Poor old Dovif is obviously a political observer of substance – must have strayed over from the Australian blogs.

  10. [from my recollection that was not the only time Costello said that he did not think Abbott was strong in economic matters]

    Didn’t Costello write it in his book?

  11. [Was Turnbull in hospital?]

    Does it matter? Turnbull has said it was ‘the darkest time of his life’. Surely a compassionate man such as Abbott would give his colleague a call to ensure his mental health and safety ;).

    Nope. They’re politicians. They know when they enter the game that it is brutal and that they will have no real friends. Your confected outrage is completely transparent.

  12. Darn

    I did not read Costello’s book, but I do recall that it was widely known what Costello thought of Abbott’s credentials in economics.

  13. Australian journalists have proven themselves to be venal corporate whores whose salaries and future prospects are more important to them than doing simple evidence based reporting.
    ltep, your faith in them is very touching. Do you still believe in faeries at the bottom of the garden?

  14. Don’t know if this has been commented on, but I reckon it’s significant. Peter Costello wasn’t at the launch.Think about that.

  15. The big ship

    I agree with what you say about the ABC which has effectively been politically casterated by the 10 year Howard govt campaign againt it…… but Kelly was just stating a conventional truth – which is that Labor find it extremely difficult to win elections with a primary below 40. I think its only happened once in recent history and that was in 1990 when Richardson effectively bought off the greens…

  16. Didn’t Costello write it in his book?

    Yeah, isn’t that where the Abbott finding economics boring/had no interest in economics comes from?

  17. triton.

    Yes, remembering Abbott being late for health debate at last election, and his rude response to Roxon.

    It was recorded for all to see. Do you think it could be used in an ad?

  18. Swan thinks that inflation is caused by genies, and have not figure out how to get a budget into surplus yet

    Quite simply the Labor ads reminds me of the 2004 ads that also feature Costello

    They want to talk about the economy, which is actually the Liberals’ strong suit, as most people agree that Labor cannot curb spending and borrowed too much …. ie reinforces with the BER report.

    I think the ads are a waste of money

  19. [Costello doing excellent work on #Sky attacking this thus ensuring he and the ad probably get a 6pm news run. 11 minutes ago via web ]

    [ Costello reminding us of Gillard’s socialist past, god help us #ausvotes 14 minutes ago via web ]

    Dopey Costello doesn’t know when to keep his mouth closed.

    If he is trying to step back from his comments about Abbott and economics then he’s going to look a bit stupid himself.

  20. triton @ 643

    [Abbott criticizes Labor’s campaign as “relentlessly negative” on AM, and Lyndal Curtis doesn’t point out the obvious comparison with his own campaign.]

    This interview was a classic example of the incompetence of the ABC – Lyndal Curtis, an allegedly ‘trained’ journalist, served up each full toss of a question to Abbott allowing him to swat them away to the boundary, never once following up his responses with a subsidiary question, or querying the manifest lies he spouted. Entirely passive and without any reference to Abbott’s actual answers – it was as if the question and response parts of the interview were recorded at separate times, then stitched back together, and the entire thing could have been conducted by a 12 year old just as competently as she did. Come to think of it, she is on about a par with a 12 year old when it comes to competence and ability as a journalist.

    And these drones actually get paid by the Australian taxpayer to serve up this sort of shit to us every day? Dawkins save our democracy from the palsied grasp of your ABC.

  21. Julia mentioned again about her parents not being able to get opp for tertiary education. That resonates with me. My mum in rural outback qld never even got primary school education.

  22. [Swan thinks that inflation is caused by genies]

    This is a good line dovif. Perhaps you can talk to someone in Lib HQ and they can make an ad around it?

  23. Dovif – if by chance youre interested in anything resembling a fact

    The BER report ENDORSED the program. I know the editorial of the OZ found some way of contorting it, but the actually report was an embarressment to most of the mainstream media who have been flogging this lame old nag of a story for the last year.

  24. What a lying, pathetic, insincere human being

    I agree. Such self-analysis is good for your soul, Dovif. Keep it up and eventually the poison will all be squeezed out.

    Next, you should try, “trumped up pseudo academic who doesn’t have a clue what he’s talking about”.

    Keep squeezing. We’re all rooting for you.

  25. [ Maybe Julia is not as human as other politician ]

    She sent him a card,would you ring somene post op?? Wouldn’t you give them some time to recover and send them a personal get well note? Or would you really rign them up for a nice chit chat? Get real.

  26. The Costello ads are dynamite because they tap into the pre existing perception that Abbott is a bit of a loose cannon and a risk. Also, I think alot of the perception about the Tories economic genius is tied up with Costello who frankly, doesn’t have a good word for Abbott when it comes to the economy.

  27. [you really are a credit to our profession Laurie. Good on you for standing up to a bad decision by the network #ausvotes about 4 hours ago via Echofon ]

    lol. The old devil wasn’t standing up for his profession. He was worried about his election coverage at Ch9 because they had so many complaints about Latham being employed and what it said about Ch9. Oakes’ leaks were to promote his program over Ch7s and now he has to start again – what better way than to speak out against your station.

  28. most people agree that Labor cannot curb spending and borrowed too much …. ie reinforces with the BER report.

    Who are these mysterious “most people”, sir? Last time, I looked, the vast majority of independent market economists and international policy experts said Labor’s fiscal stimulus was a textbook example of an effective response to a crisis and that the resulting debt was miniscule by world standards.

    As to the BER report, it found that 97.7 per cent of projects were completed satisfactorily and the inquiry found that overall, the program had delivered significant benefits in terms of critical education infrastacture.

    Once again, I understand that our journalist friends are genetically incapable of counting and lying straight in bed, but I would expect you to at least get the facts right. Otherwise, people can’t make a sensible decision.

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