The Advertiser’s third electorate poll of the campaign brings bad news for Labor in Sturt, held for the Liberals by Christopher Pyne on a margin of 0.9 per cent. The survey of 575 respondents conducted on Wednesday evening has Pyne leading Labor’s Rick Sarre 55-45 on two-party preferred and 49 per cent to 35 per cent on the primary vote, compared with 47.2 per cent and 41.5 per cent at the 2007 election. The Greens are on 10 per cent, up from 6.4 per cent in 2007. More happily for Labor, Julia Gillard was rated stronger on the economy by 44 per cent compared with 41 per cent for Tony Abbott, and as more honest by 46 per cent compared with 38 per cent for Abbott. The margin of error on the poll is about 4 per cent. Previous Advertiser polls had Labor leading 67-33 in Kingston two weeks ago (a swing to Labor of 12.5 per cent), and Liberal leading 52-48 in Boothby one week ago (a swing to Labor of 1 per cent).
Oscar
I did not hear Fraser. Can you give a brief summation?
I might also add that no-one has asked the Coalition whether they are going to immediately stop borrowing money, if they’re so against it.
By all means supply an internet filter to parents if they want to use it, but to try and filter the internet at a primary level is stupid and I’ve said so at plenty of labor sub-branch meetings. It’s like finger in the dyke time trying to filter the internet at that level.
[I might also add that no-one has asked the Coalition whether they are going to immediately stop borrowing money, if they’re so against it.]
Exactly. And nobody has made the obvious point that if they intend on returning to surplus at the same time as Labor, how can they credibly carry on about the debt? If their complaints had merit, they’d be outlining a plan to return the budget to surplus much sooner than 2013 instead of spending like goodness knows what in the way they have been.
MW, you are kidding right? The government and major corporates access the international money markets. Our debt requires are a tiny fraction of that. Your argument is rather mistaken.
Read this:
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Bonds-deflation-theme-music-pd20100805-7ZSXV?OpenDocument
Mick W,
You’re so funny and so wrong.
Of course, it’s a nice little lie to spread around. It sounds believable to most people.
It’s somewhat harder to actually debunk the claim, by which time most people’s eyes have glazed over.
Just like most of the claims and policies being splashed about by the Coalition.
BigBob
The Liberals are not known as the FIBerals for nothing.
Sophie Mirrabella is almost totally unhinged this morning, she is usually bad but today she is off the planet. I wonder why?
ruawake
The Libs have had their oxygen sucked out of them I believe!
BK
[Diogenes
****Vomit Alert!!****
Whatever you do this morning, don’t turn on the TV. You’ll see the rodent in full flight.
Keep your breakfast down. Avoid it at all costs.]
I really spoke too soon last night. He may have done this just because I said I was so happy not having to see him this election.
[With John Howard in one ear and George Pell in the other what sort of leader do you thing the unhinged one would make?]
Bi-Polar or DID ?
[No wonder the ALP can run a budget.
The government, being in the limited debt market, creates unnecessary competition which leaves less debt money available, which raises both lending criteria and interest rates on money that IS available. If Labor spends debt money, it will go to Unionised Labor (74% of the current stimulus, compared with 3.8% to small business). Small business, through their tax burden, will pay for this borrowed stimulus money, even though they directly benefitted from only a pittance.
IF the Govt stopped borrowing, then more of the wholesale debt (at lower interest rates) is available for small business and the overall tax burden on the nation is reduced (paying less money servicing debt).
Do you get it now?]
No sorry I don’t. How do you then explain the fact that the US has rates of 0.25% when their govt is borrowing well in excess of the Aust govt? Where is the evidence of this credit rationing? You say the overall tax burden on the nation is reduced – what happens when more people become unemployed, more benefits are paid out and less tax revenue is raised.
In response to what someone said earlier – I saw plenty of Labor attack ads on TV last night.
Interestingly, I’m seeing more Labor ads on Channels 7 & 10 & SBS, while the Liberals seem to have bought out Channel 9.
The Liberals had a strategy. Play Rudd against Julia and the Labor Party. Thereby Julia is fighting the Liberals, the media and Rudd.
Rudd has come out and said, no. I will join and support Julia and Labor.
The game has changed on its head, and the Liberals are crying foul!
The Tory debt and deficit nonsense has been blown out of the water:
[It’s unlikely that the behaviour of global bond investors will enter the Australian election campaign, but investors’ insouciance in the face of large and rising government deficits completely undercuts the argument that there is a problem with debt and deficits in Australia.
In fact right or wrong, bond markets are screaming deflation, not inflation, and both retail and institutional markets are pouring money into bonds, and out of equities, so there is no problem soaking up the colossal supply of government debt.
Whether the Australian budget moves into surplus in 2013, 2015 or 2020 will make no difference to interest rates, either short term or long term.]
[ruawake
Posted Friday, August 6, 2010 at 8:33 am | Permalink
No there have always been people on here who support the filter. There has been many a long debate on it.
All as boring as bat poo. ]
True, but the bogans that can’t control their kids are probable going to vote Liberal and the religious nutters are probable going to vote Liberal. The educated young that don’t want the government screwing with there internet could probable be harvested by either party. I’d say they are now voting Liberal too. Well done Labor. Boring as batshit but worth losing government over?
Radguy
[Traveller, what were the good things about the Howard years? I don’t remember a single positive aspect about that government.]
I see the Howard Years through the eyes of an ALP member, so don’t have much fondness at all.
However, its my impression that a lot of people not engaged with politics thought he was a pretty good PM overall.
I think if you put him up against Gillard in the current election, you might not like the result (if you’re an ALP supporter).
Just to fence you in MW, there is no shortage of money for lending relative to Australia’s needs, it is just the conditions for lending which are now tougher.
You sell Liberal ideas as well as the Abbott show.
fredn
The filter has been put on hold for 12 months. It is not supported by the greens or libs, therefore it will never be passed anyway.
BB
[I might also add that no-one has asked the Coalition whether they are going to immediately stop borrowing money, if they’re so against it.]
Actually a caller on Hack asked Hockey exactly that. He admitted they would have to do the same. They had Mega on who disputed the figure and said that if unemployment was 7-8% (as it would have been without the stimpac) that $100M would be a drop in the ocean.
Hockey was quite good and said they didn’t oppose the stimpac in whole, just its size. He said it should have been about half with the cut out bits being the ones that haven’t worked out so well like the batts and some of the BER.
Great ALP site on Debt.
http://www.factsondebt.com/
Virginia Trioli has just employed the email segment of her ABC-TV morning program to nudge the electorate into the path of RIGHTeousness with this precious little gem.
[“Yesterday was the Crocodile Dundee moment of the election campaign. You think that’s a former PM? THIS is a former PM!”]
This was followed by chortles of uncontrollable delight, only forced to a premature end by the 9 am break.
It calls to mind Ms Trioli’s performance hosting Lateline the night before ’07 election when she’d plucked out some half-baked opinion poll to orgasmically exclaim that her Homeric Hero Howard had totally narrowed the gap and now the election was going to be a photo finish, afterall. Hosanna!
What a pathetic excuse for a non-Murdoch journo she is.
Mick Wilkinson went:
[The government, being in the limited debt market, creates unnecessary competition which leaves less debt money available, which raises both lending criteria and interest rates on money that IS available.]
There is simply no evidence in the bond market of crowding out. So much so, that what we are seeing is a completely opposite effect – where demand for government bonds is driving down yields, rather than over supply driving yields up!
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Bonds-deflation-theme-music-pd20100805-7ZSXV?OpenDocument&src=spb
Mick, the problem with this particular standard textbook approach to these things is that it’s historical accuracy has been more by accident than design. Capital markets are much more complex.
Atticus
The last laugh will be on them. Labor are going to win this election. That will shut them up.
The liberals completely lack credibility over the whole economic stimulus issue. They would have happily kept fiddling while Rome burnt.
Apologies triffid, I only read the one post. I thought you were speaking highly of him.
No, Howard could not convince an open mob, any better than the few cranky libs here.
I watched QT during the GFC and thereafter, and they were always saying that the stimulus should be withdrawn. The reason being it was going to overheat the economy and cause inflation. That was their mantra at the time.
Will Robb get the policies in for costing by cob today, or was that a non-core promise?
Poss et al
I’m glad you lot corrected that coz I heard Hockey say it yesterday on Hack and it made sense to me (as an economic simpleton like most people). Why isn’t Labor correcting it? Isn’t it now all about the economy?
steve
As predicted, another anti-Barnaby front page in the dead-wood Tiser. They aint giving up.
@Victoria 95
Don’t remember the exact words (I was driving at the time) but it was something to the effect of “Do you think Tony Abbott is ready to be PM?”.
Malcolm heistated for a few seconds, then just said (very quietly) “No”. Then again, even (more sofltly) “No”.
I think Fran Kelly was gobsmacked.
Chilling.
I have again sent off my regular weekly (it seems almost daily) complaint to the ABC about institutionalised anti ALP bias, but today’s effort on ABC Radio National was plumbing new depths of partisanship.
The 8am broadcast = Item 1 – Scott Morrison says blah, blah, blah, boats, boats, boats. No contrary view from Tony Burke, or mention of the ALP. Item 2 = Opposition Leader Tony Abbott is in Tasmania today talking about his Health plans, followed by a negative analysis of 2 Labor seats being in danger. Then …. nothing else on politics, just move on to other international news. No PM schedule for today, no mention of Rudd, no other ALP news.
Around 8.10am, straight on to the incoherent Barnaby Joyce, who enjoyed 10 more minutes of free Coalition airtime to ramble on about Dawkins Knows What as most of the things he said did not appear to be in English, but some other weird argot almost beyond my understanding – he seems to be hitting the sauce earlier and earlier in the day as the campaign goes by.
Back to the News headlines at 8.30am = Item 1 – JW Howard says blah, blah, blah, Gillard unfit, blah, blah, blah. Item 2 = Opposition leader Tony Abbott is in Tasmania, repeat of 8am broadcast, then, you guessed it, straight on to other news.
Two news headline broadcasts in 1/2 an hour on prime drive time, 20 minutes in between allegedly about news and current affairs and not a word was spoken about PM Gillard or the ALP, except in negative terms.
It is amazing that the Government is even remotely still in this election contest when this sort of systemic bias to the Coalition is evident across the board in the ABC news and current affairs presentation …. and we have to pay for this ‘privilege’ with our taxes!
[victoria
Posted Friday, August 6, 2010 at 9:19 am | Permalink
fredn
The filter has been put on hold for 12 months. It is not supported by the greens or libs, therefore it will never be passed anyway.]
Yes it was really really pretty silly to take up a position that pisses off the religious nutters (they don’t get their filter) and the young that don’t want the government screwing with their internet ( the fight could still be lost, lets vote Green or Liberal). It’s almost as if Labor wants to lose this election.
Thanks Oscar for heads up. I don’t often agree with Malcolm, but on this occasion I concur.
The Big Ship
I had to turn it off. It really is blah blah blah.
fredn
It was silly re filter, but I do not think Labor want to lose the election.
[I watched QT during the GFC and thereafter, and they were always saying that the stimulus should be withdrawn.]
They seemed to be taking their cues from Michael Stutchbury in the Oz, who’s been demanding the government “stop the stimulus” for ages now.
The Liberals aren’t quite as united as the MSM would like us to think:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/coalition-mps-prepare-revolt-on-paid-parental-leave-plan/story-fn59niix-1225901859588
confessions.
The Libs take the view if something is said enough times, it will be true.
According to the OO, former Blair Cabinet Minister Alan Milburn has been recruited as a campaign adviser by Gillard.
[victoria
Posted Friday, August 6, 2010 at 9:31 am | Permalink
The Big Ship
I had to turn it off. It really is blah blah blah.
fredn
It was silly re filter, but I do not think Labor want to lose the election.]
Well they should dam well stop acting as if they do, I’m not sprouting theory, my son is voting Liberal over this issue.
I agree that they need to drop to filter. pronto.
Dio went:
[Why isn’t Labor correcting it?]
With this lot – it’s hard to believe that it’s anything other that habit.
I can’t remember any government at either state or federal level over the last 20 years that has so completely failed to attempt to defend itself as this one has – and this isn’t the media’s fault either, the media waffle on about what is happening, and when there’s nothing happening, they waffle on about themselves.
When the government fails to make their own achievements a consistent waffling point for those bozos, the results speak for themselves.
[Another Nationals MP said his entire party was “dead against it” and would use its muscle as the junior Coalition partner to alter the scheme through the cabinet process if Mr Abbott won government.]
Ah the National Party led rabble.
[Well they should dam well stop acting as if they do, I’m not sprouting theory, my son is voting Liberal over this issue.]
I assume he does not want a NBN?
Heather Ewitt’s 7.30 Report last night was appalling. Her slant on Rudd’s reappearance was that he and Gillard were singing from the same hymn sheet, and some intercutting of their respective pressers was used to prove it. What a revelation! That two senior figures from the same political party would use similar forms of words to sum up their views on the current situation is, surely, not at all newsworthy?
fredn
tell son that the filter has been put on hold for 12 months to be reviewed. This is code for dropping it. To have said they will not proceed at the time, would have been seen as a backflip. This filter will never get through.
I don’t know what age group your son is in, but tell him Labor have done some really good things for young people going to uni. There are more placements and assistance for low income earners with regard to fees. This is already in place and it is really good policy.
i’m nervous about this BER report.
Trioli over the past few days asked Liberal candidates in marginal seats why they keep talking about Govt. debt being a problem when it is only 6% of GDP. The poor fools look a bit stunned at first and try to keep to the Liberal script.
This morning she said wtte that everyone who had a mortgage would like it to be only 6% of income.
Why haven’t Labor put out simple graph ads showing how small the debt is in comparison with household debt or – for fun, Tone’s debt against his income.
The Libs are sick from mind control from un-Australian sources.
Hewson and Fraser have been trying to fix this for ages.
Our country needs them to fix their party, as they can’t be taken seriously at the moment.
Having a leader without a financial background, what were you guys thinking?
[124 The Big Ship
Posted Friday, August 6, 2010 at 9:28 am | Permalink
I have again sent off my regular weekly (it seems almost daily) complaint to the ABC about institutionalised anti ALP bias, but today’s effort on ABC Radio National was plumbing new depths of partisanship.]
rang the abc this morning re kelly and her groupies and surprise surpirse he listened to me, i then ask if he had heard the rumour re the future of the abc and he went very quite but was not one the other types that hang up on you.
Big ship did you read that here a few days ago about may be abbott would sell the abc. may be who knows
BH
Good point. Labor HQ should use this idea.