Morgan has published another of its mid-week phone polls of 660 respondents, conducted last night, and it finds the two parties deadlocked on two-party preferred. Labor’s primary vote is down four points on last week to 38 per cent, with the Coalition up three to 45 per cent. It also finds Tony Abbott’s approval rating (up six to 52 per cent) has overtaken Julia Gillard’s (steady on 46 per cent), with Gillard’s disapproval up two to 39 per cent and Abbott’s down two to 38 per cent. However, Gillard retains a 48-37 lead as preferred prime minister. Gender gaps are found to have rapidly narrowed, and while there is evidence for this across the board, Morgan has perhaps strained credulity in finding the Coalition 0.5 per cent ahead on two-party preferred among women and behind 0.5 per cent among men.
my say
Why are you teasing us? Did you mean ‘appealingly’ or ‘appallingly’?
Glen
Bring on the empty horses?
appealingly?? she doesn’t appeal to me, but I would run an appeal for her, to get rid of her, she has been a waste of space as premier.
When are the Libs going to release their Health and Education policies?
Cuppa
Come on, it wasn’t the libs. The information must have come from someone who had access to priveleged information that only Cabiney would have seen. This was a deliberate attempt to udnermine Julia’s campaign. Maybe they thought that they were only sending out a warning signal for people to back off after the NSC leak and did not anticipate the damage it would cause. If that’s the case, then they are equally stupid as they are gutless.
[The corporate sector must be ready to murder Abbott. The 1.5% corporate PPL tax is going to really hurt some of the biggies. The ]
they usually have their say why so quite
Who will be on 730?
@runwake/106,
Not to mention Broadband policies.
If Labor does lose they’ll be a stronger opposition than Abbott’s wil be a government.
i tell you its the dam spell check honestly the Americans cannot spell
appallingly
think i need my eyes tested as well when spell checking
o dear we have to have hope dont we is the primary vote that has you all worried because 50 is the same as newspoll what was the primary vote with newspoll
How come people want to slit their wrists over one poll yet all but ignored the very interesting Essential poll from a few days ago? It’s done on a 2 week moving average and is slowly tracking towards 50/50 but at its current rate will have ALP 51% come election day.
[When are the Libs going to release their Health and Education policies?]
what makes you think they have policies?
i dont think people out there understand primary votes they just look at the
50/50 ect
The promo for 730 Report said they are analysing polls
[Like 2007, we’re sick of you Howie bugger off.]
But people can’t be sick of Julia after 5 weeks. That’s silly.
The polls are still bouncing. So what. The Green numbers are still very high — higher than I would have expected. I still think that come election day, it’ll drop to under 10% in the reps. 3% back to the ALP (in full rather than 70/30 prefs) will get us back in front if we’re 50/50 now.
But I still think it’ll head back the other way in the next week. Abbott is running away when the press asks hard questions. And as we get closer to the actual date — the press MUST ask hard questions.
They want it to build to a fever pitch, so they get the ratings. If Abbott escapes scrutiny then — then the press in this country really and truly ARE a lost cause. I’m hoping they will surprise me and become more balanced as we get closer.
[How come people want to slit their wrists over one poll yet all but ignored the very interesting Essential poll from a few days ago? It’s done on a 2 week moving average and is slowly tracking towards 50/50 but at its current rate will have ALP 51% come election day.]
It is not “one poll”. It confirms the trend of the last 4 polls.
Abbott needs a good broadband policy and he’ll be really confident then.
I hope he rules out an ISP filter too.
[Cuppa – Howard was as widely disliked and discredited as Abbott is. And look what happened.]
Yes, but he was mostly only disliked by Labor voters most of the time. The Rabbott has a real mean, sinister, dishonest, but mostly sexually sleazy, streak about him that will grate on people’s nerves after a while, whether they be from the left, right OR centre. Some of his policies – for example sending kids to dangerous work down the mines, and forcing families apart by requiring that job seekers relocate to shithouse mining “towns”, would anger great swathes of the population. Especially in the event people get KILLED or hurt complying with his miserable workhouse conscription.
Howard had numerous faults too, of course, including meanness, malice and trickery. But the difference is, he had the discipline to keep them out of the public mostly.
[I bet the journalists will be looking forward to a crazy roller coaster ride with Madman Abbott as PM rather than boring KR or cool calm JG.]
They loved Costello cos he flattered, flirted and joked with the little dears. They love Abbott because he flirts, charms and lies beautifully for them. They rarely question it and yet they know he is lying.
Labor by contrast speaks to them – doesn’t flirt, doesn’t flatter enough and hasn’t played to its strengths enough. Swannie’s the serious one against Hockey’s buffoonism but they prefer speaking with Hockey.
I think the leaker is known and it will come out after the election.
MWH – if the Greens’ policies were so fantastic how come you did so badly when you tried to get elected.
It’s sad but that’s reality.
I think I’ll go and watch the 7.30 report.
waznaki
‘Coz we’ll all be rooned’ said Hanrahan
‘Before the year is out.’
Considering the pathetic start to the campaign from the ALP is this the best the Liberals can do…..!
Looking at News poll from the previous thread this election is still line ball with clearl movement in Queensland & NSW towards the Liberals and Victoria and SA moving towards SA.
Early in the campaign Glen predicted that we were facing a repeat of the 1990 Election and the more I see of the polls the more that prediction looks on the money.
Gillard has only been talking about the economy for a few days and it will take a week or so before it should filter though to the polls, therefore in a week if the polls have not moved then the chances of a Abbott Government will be a real possibility.
I want to make one point about Tony Abbott’s plan for older workers, on the surface it look sa good policy but I do not believe it will work and here is why.
We have for over a decade have had a DSP sstem where employers can receive wage subsidies to employ a disabled person and this varies depending on the disability and their are subsidies for any workplace alterations that may be needed yet during this time we have see the number of people on DSP go up not down. I have little confidence in this policy.
[Abbott is running away when the press asks hard questions. And as we get closer to the actual date — the press MUST ask hard questions.]
Been saying that for 6 months. Why would anything change in 2 weeks?
Looking at Newspoll from the previous thread this election is still line ball with clear movement in Queensland & NSW towards the Liberals and Victoria and SA moving towards ALP
[If we lose, I want to say a special thanks to the leakers as well.]
Canberra is apparently gossip central. Who knows what gets said around the traps? The Coalition as do the ALP know things about eachother that we have never heard in the media.
I think it is more than highly likely that a conversation was repeated & was picked up by the opposition. No doubt in my mind it came from the Libs or a mole like Grech working in the ALP but not a minister.
As Victoria noted. The so-called leak about pensioners seemed to be very strategic given the Rabbott’s grab at the grey vote.
And for those who keep repeating it. Gillard categorically denied saying that pensioners don’t vote for the ALP.She said ‘No’ I did not say that.
She did say however that she questioned whether the government could afford the policy. Big difference to how Oakes & the media keep presenting it. That is dirty politics straight out of the Coalition campaign rule book.
[Gillard has only been talking about the economy for a few days and it will take a week or so before it should filter though to the polls]
Not if they’re not listening to her.
Come on folks, chin up! The government is on the front foot, pressuring the opposition on the issue they most weak on: the economy. Already we’ve seen shouty Tone emerge in press conferences in the past two days, and we’ve seen gaffes in the form of ‘no means no’, and his hubris moment today when he declared the government’s campaign is in deep trouble. Things have started to turn.
We pay attention to the minutiae, but the everyday voter doesn’t. I expect the polling next week to reflect this turnaround in campaign fortunes. Barring another leak of course.
[113 waznaki
Posted Wednesday, August 4, 2010 at 7:25 pm | Permalink
How come people want to slit their wrists over one poll yet all but ignored the very interesting Essential poll from a few days ago? It’s done on a 2 week moving average and is slowly tracking towards 50/50 but at its current rate will have ALP 51% come election day.]
yes thats what i say but it seem the people running his poll and other do not think a lot about it its not in the pendulum etc and why would it not be good it picks up all the people who have no phone or have a phone the young ones etc.
and of course the media do not want to know i spoke to one of their senior people last week and he told me how its done and i cannot think why the big ones are not out in to the computer world also
in2005 telstra lost 100 land lines and in an article i put here last night they say they are loosing 3 percent a year how many young ones do u know who do not have a land line i know at least 50
[Gillard getting panned for saying ‘better economic plan’ 6 times on ABC one after the other.]
Heven’t seen the news yet here in the West but this is the modus operandi of the ABC every night, but only with Labor. Abbott can repeat an offensive comment four times but only one will be shown and no reference to the fact that he kept on repeating it. Many people only watch the 7pm news so that colours thir judgement of what has happened politically that day. Simkin and others are the gatekeepers, keeping positive news of Labor from the viewer and keeping negative news about Abbott from the viewer. This is happening every night and has done for months.
I heard Peter Martin talking on ABC local today. He thinks the Citizens Assembly is a good idea.
Also said that McKibben’s idea of handing out free permits for carbon reduction is interesting. Polluters could be given 1/2 the allocation and private households the other 1/2 which could be kept for generations as they would become more valuable over time (100 years). Business could recoup value as they reduced carbon emissions.
Turnbull and McKibben are close mates so I wonder if this is the way the Coalition will go after the election. It would involve no big price on carbon.
my say @ 76
All she had to do was just change tactics, it would have become obvious soon enough. Actions speak louder than words.
I do agree that she was far too stage managed at the start, and her natural attributes are more than enough to sell herself, and they need to come to the fore.
[This telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted last night…]
Morgan should be sodomised with a calculator as well. How can you conduct a poll on one NIGHT?
Give a bit of time for the economic message to catch on as well as some media attention on the Coalition’s lack of detailed economic plans for the future and we should see some different poll results next week.
It’s a bit funny to see the Labor people on here already hoisting the white flag! What’s really happened? A couple of leaks, some shifting back and forth of the ALP campaign. What about the Coalition? They’ve stayed out of the media for the last week or so and attacked the ALP where necessary.
As soon as the spotlight is back on Abbott, the polls will probably shift again.
@Glen, I bet ya he won’t, but he won’t announce it till right up the end of the election (near Aug 21st).
People want to get rid of Labor so bad they don’t know what Abbott said earlier this year, comparing that with the a definite “NO” to a 2nd debate:
http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,,26952528-15306,00.html
“In response to direct questions whether NetAlert would be revived if Mr Abbott became prime minister, his spokesman said: “The Coalition will have more to say on this issue in due course.””
“”Can you have a filtering system that is effective, that doesn’t lull parents into a false sense of security and which doesn’t in the process make the internet ineffective as the kind of marvellous research tool and educational device that it is?
“I don’t know at the moment … I just don’t know.””
Including last year:
http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/net-filters-thin-end-of-the-wedge-kirby-20091217-kym9.html
“Liberal leader Tony Abbott said he was “open to proposals” yesterday but two Liberal backbenchers, Jamie Briggs and Alex Hawke, have already committed to opposing the policy.”
Can you trust a guy that much?
I don’t know what the MOE is on this sucker, but don’t forget folks just 1% off Libs onto Labor washes out at about 51- 49 Labor.- or at least 50.5-49.5 – anybody’s game.
I am curious do we know what seats have the greatest access to the Internet and Pay T.V
I reckon in the past few days SkyNews coverage has been very good for Jules.
just had a call from the guide dogs re the raffle i said yes sent it out but if abbott gets in you will not be getting any thing because he will cut our pension.
she said no its not good is it dreadful re the polls so i said well make sure you tell your family about work choices etc. so there you go another person who does not like abbott i have only met a few mainly on that dastardly blog
[BK I rate only mcfarlane, hunt, billson and keenan.]
Sorry Glen, I’ve been sidelined for a while.
You’ll notice that your four were not on my much-abbreviated list of nohopers.
I wonder if JG needs to disassociate her government with the NSW and QLD governments. The problems in those states are not due to anything federal Labor has done yet those governments must be like lead weights in her saddle bags.
I think that a statement should be made and repeated regularly that any voter with a beef to pick with the Bligh or Keneally governments should wait until the respective state elections.
JG campaigns in those states almost every day and to not acknowledge to voters that she recognises they have concerns with their state governments is probably seen as not only being politically aligned with those governments but in fact to be supporting the reelection of those governments, If that’s the perception it will be electoral poison.
I think it more important to have my party in charge federally that at the state level.
Well 7:30 report is much better for us
well it looks like we’ll have to wait for yet another poll for some improvement for Labor… i think the fat lady is warming up 🙁
what does moe mean and if darn is correct why are we all jumping out our windows.
no the computer type
no body has answered my question yet has the primary vote shifted from news poll in the morgan or hasnt he bothered to give it to us.
Queensland is bad for Labor because of the knifing of Rudd and the mining tax, not because of Bligh.
Look at SA. Rann’s government was basically kicked out but got lucky, there is no positivity towards SA Labor, but Gillard is dominating here.
[Well 7:30 report is much better for us]
who is on it and why
[Even more diabolically stupid was flagging the “real” Julia stuff. She must have dreamt this up on her own because surely no adviser, no consultant would have been daft enough to OK this.]
There was a leak that the focus groups said she should be more “real”. I don’t know whether the focus group told her to advertise the fact.
The meta-commentary has to stop but it’s too late to stop most of the damage. People know she’s a puppet to the people who knifed Rudd. Because she’s told them ffs.
[Look at SA. Rann’s government was basically kicked out but got lucky, there is no positivity towards SA Labor, but Gillard is dominating here.
]
so what is the possiblity of us picking all the seats in sa. i am not familiar with how many you have
Just as a matter of interest does anyone know what the final polls were showing when Kennett was knock off by Bracks in Victoria in 1999?
sophomore surge
😉
MOE = margin of error.
[There was a leak that the focus groups said she should be more “real”.]
Announcing “I’m real, I’m real” makes you the opposite of real.
*facepalm*