Morgan phone poll: 50-50

Morgan has published another of its mid-week phone polls of 660 respondents, conducted last night, and it finds the two parties deadlocked on two-party preferred. Labor’s primary vote is down four points on last week to 38 per cent, with the Coalition up three to 45 per cent. It also finds Tony Abbott’s approval rating (up six to 52 per cent) has overtaken Julia Gillard’s (steady on 46 per cent), with Gillard’s disapproval up two to 39 per cent and Abbott’s down two to 38 per cent. However, Gillard retains a 48-37 lead as preferred prime minister. Gender gaps are found to have rapidly narrowed, and while there is evidence for this across the board, Morgan has perhaps strained credulity in finding the Coalition 0.5 per cent ahead on two-party preferred among women and behind 0.5 per cent among men.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,059 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 50-50”

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  1. [Dare I say: now Abbott’s up against two Leaders?]

    Three really never forget the Queensland Nationals they will end up being the gift for Labor that keeps giving in electoral tests. It is the ultimate unelectable political rabble. It’s main role in campaigns is to kick own goals like they just have here. The Southern Liberals must be despondent once it dawns on them what has unfolded tonight.

  2. [Nothing like being a bit patronising is there ….]

    I think Glen will understand why I patted him on the head, so to speak.

    He is the only Lib here that I have any respect for — under normal circumstances — but a couple of statements tonight have been of the rusted on kind — not his usual more balanced statement.

  3. ” A feasibility study only. He said it would be built privately.”

    A feasibility study is as far as it will go as it will be unfeasible – too hard to build, too expensive to build, too expensive to use. Overseas they have only ever been built with lots of government money, and to the best of my knowledge no high speed line has ever made money – not even in Japan where Tokyo-Osaka runs at something like a 10 minute frequency with a catchment of about 80 million people.

  4. Just listened to the Rudd interview.
    Kev was very very good. No bitterness, the common enemy is the mad monk and he will do what is required to ensure he does not get the keys to the lodge (Mad monk that is).
    He just saved about 4 marginal seats inn Qld.
    Classy stuff Kev. Look forward to seeing you campaign with Julia in Qld.

  5. Without distracting from the economy message: I reckon this Big Tobacco stuff has gotta be run with somehow.

    I mean, can we get one our famous Australian scoop political journos on to the details of the deal and the Libs involvement?

    Or do they only get out of bed when a leaker wets the mattress?

  6. Jen – In fairness to Glen, he has not had much to get excited, it’s a bit like when your footy side is rubbish for year on year then all of a sudden you are top of the ladder beating everyone, it is only natural to get excited.

    Its been a while since we have seen a bull butter

  7. [The Big Ship
    Posted Wednesday, August 4, 2010 at 11:44 pm | Permalink
    Kevin Rudd has pressed all of the right buttons with his radio interview tonight, and there can’t be any reasonable criticism of the points he has made.

    He has said that he will campaign for the re-election of a Gillard Government, and that he will attend the party launch]

    i think jounos just say things because they want to

  8. [Labor have got more chance of losing the election than Pyne does of losing his seat.]

    That’s probably true but it’s nice having the Libs completely on the defensive here.

  9. [Jen – In fairness to Glen, he has not had much to get excited, it’s a bit like when your footy side is rubbish for year on year then all of a sudden you are top of the ladder beating everyone, it is only natural to get excited.

    Its been a while since we have seen a bull butter]

    He reminds me a little of Joe Hockey as of late, which makes me suspect Hockey is in the same category as Glen. (Like the party, don’t like the leader)

  10. [found!
    958 blackburnpseph
    Posted Wednesday, August 4, 2010 at 11:59 pm | Permalink
    ” A feasibility study only. He said it would be built private
    ]

    gee i would say you picked a good avartar for your self/ always sound depressed and un happy look on the bright side of life the rail link is great news our rain is in the dark ages after you go to europe and see
    night all.
    still looking for the thing on the abc.ccccccccc

  11. Mexi I’m not getting excited.

    I am enjoying people being worried about Abbott being PM (not matter how unlikely that is).

    But its T Abbott we’re talking about.

    All I want is Labor’s margin reduced to a 7-10 seat majority.
    Tony Abbott thrown out as Liberal leader replaced by a more moderate leader.
    The loss of Pyne and Dutton so Bruce and Michael can get better jobs.
    Oh and after the election…
    Bruce Billson with a margin of 10% in Dunkley.
    Michael Keenan with a margin of 5% in Stirling.

    I’m not asking for much Mexi 🙂

  12. Senate arithmetic is interesting..

    I see only ALP, Coalition and some Greens being voted up.

    What is interesting is that the (apparent, though usually exaggerated) Green vote is higher and the ALP in most states could be expected to be lower than last time around. All it does is cannibalise ALP seats.

    Fairly conservative (lower than poll of poll figures) return exactly half to the Coalition, one Green up (QLD), one Labor down (QLD).
    no Green NSW, Fielding replaced by Liberal,

  13. “sounds like you hope thats so”

    My Say, you always bang on about being Labor people being full of love, well you’ve shown yourself up there sweetheart, thinking ill of other people. I don’t want anybody to be ill, and I was genuinely quite shocked about how ill he sounded. You might want him on the campaign trail, but surely it would be better to have him fit and healthy first.

  14. mysay @ 896

    ALP to announce feasability study into high speed rail link between Newcastle and Sydney, as first step towards fast train down east coast about 1 hour ago via TweetDeck

    ah i spoke to a green that wanted this some time ago good timing

    Those people expressing scepticism about high speed rail moving beyond the study phase have history on their side.

  15. [He reminds me a little of Joe Hockey as of late, which makes me suspect Hockey is in the same category as Glen. (Like the party, don’t like the leader)]

    I think that this would be the case for quite a few centre-right voters. Will cast their vote for the Liberal Party while holding their noses.

  16. Dunkley is the type of seat that a 5% margin is as good as a 10% margin. your Bruce should be able to hold on Primaries.

    I am surprised that the proposed redistribution for Dunkley wasn’t a bit better for Billson.

  17. [pebbles your back how is your cold did you have a lemon drink.]

    No, I have just been drinking some juice. I am all fuzzy in the head but I can’t sleep. I am going to rely on teh internets to keep me company for a little while and then try again a little later.

    Tomorrow I will get drugs, I think.

  18. [Those people expressing scepticism about high speed rail moving beyond the study phase have history on their side.]

    I am sitting in France where high speed rail moved beyond the study phase about 35 years ago.

  19. Looks like I have to apologise to you Glen — people think I’ve been too hard on you. I was being motherly — but if you’re feelings are hurt, I heartily apologise with out reservation.

  20. Glen,

    I have to say that he scrubbed up better than I did at that age!

    Or currently, of course…

    Actually, in that picture he looks a bit like that Rupert Perry-Jones bloke; played the most dashing spy-type in Spooks.

    *off to bed*

  21. [ah i spoke to a green that wanted this some time ago good timing

    Those people expressing scepticism about high speed rail moving beyond the study phase have history on their side.]

    so 1998 was a good year then and bob was he in the senate then i know i should know that????

  22. Gusface,

    [ You heard it here first folks.

    that you kept moaning how the election was over and abbott would win

    fairweather or what]

    All I have EVER tried to be is realistic and not exist in some land of unreality.

    I have always said NOTHING that many others here have said. That it was not looking as good as it could but I hoped that we could win.

    According to YOU, I belong in another group of WE.

    Go and get your self knotted. IT IS time I found other things to occupy my self rather than cop crap from the likes of you!

  23. #975

    It’s not just the history of high speed rail that makes people pee themselves with laughter, but the history of major projects generally which have been announced during election campaigns.

  24. [Did anyone watch Gruen and chaser tonight? Was it any good? Any interesting highlights?]

    Both were up and down — a bit like recent polls.

  25. Keating wades in, on message: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/rudd-returns-to-back-pm-20100804-11fs0.html?autostart=1

    In his first foray into the campaign, Mr Keating said in Melbourne that people had forgotten all too quickly how ”Labor spending saved Australia from a quite dreadful recession”.

    ”When you see what the government has done, you can tick the boxes. Employment? Tick the box. Growth? Tick the box. Inflation? Tick the box. The budget? Tick the box. And we pass this up for Mr Abbott? Really.”

  26. [currently, of course…

    Actually, in that picture he looks a bit like that Rupert Perry-Jones bloke; played the most dashing spy-type in Spooks.

    *off to bed*]

    ah spooks my favourite show love it the dam abc proably cannot afford it any more with all the pay that must to more junos than they need thats my firt letter to kev
    on the 22 aug

  27. [Peter Young
    Posted Thursday, August 5, 2010 at 12:09 am | Permalink
    #97]

    we leave the doomsaying to liberals and the ones with no vision in all their years in office

    nite all

  28. Gruen and Chaser good tonight TSOP.
    The Chaser boys no longer have that X factor of shock and surprise, its more just a series of comedy sketches but they are still funny. They had Plibersek this week as the studio guess and she was just ok, she always seems a bit flat to me.
    The funnies part was when they went to David Bradburys electorate to help him out with border protection in Penrith! They talked to a few bogans and I reckon they swung a few votes to him. Good stuff, but pretty tame these days.
    Gruen is always good, Russell is a star and Todd is a bit of a tosser.
    Hewson was good value – said “not necessarily” when asked if he would vote for tone!

  29. [”When you see what the government has done, you can tick the boxes. Employment? Tick the box. Growth? Tick the box. Inflation? Tick the box. The budget? Tick the box. And we pass this up for Mr Abbott? Really.”]

    Succinct! (PJK hasn’t lost it)

  30. Ryan

    It would be nice to see Gillard lose and I will laugh so hard on election night if she does.

    But I have not much to like of a choice between Tony and Jooles.

    I will say Tony is doing a better job than I thought possible and it is still possible for him to pull it off.

    But its a long margin to make up if he does well hats off to him but its a hard ask.

    Ryan it has been depressing being a Liberal ever since Howard lost in 2007 seeing where we had gone and what we then amounted to after John Winston Howard.

  31. Delroy’s Issue of the Day – Coalition’s Senior’s Policy.

    And re the Health Announcement – Sunk, lead Balloon – Thanks Kev 🙂

  32. [ll I have EVER tried to be is realistic and not exist in some land of unreality.]

    no no a land of faith and and more faith never un reality just faith

    now it is good night

  33. Scarpat

    France has 60 million people and the government paid for every last centime of the TGV and it has never made a sous. It is a worthy cause but unfortunately a stunt that will wither away after the election.

    An example for you that Sydneysiders will know – the freeway link between the M3?(the Gosford Freeway) and the M2 – a friend some years ago worked on a feasibility study and the only way that it could stack up for the private sector was if the toll was $37. And the Newcastle train will be similar.

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