Morgan phone poll: 50-50

Morgan has published another of its mid-week phone polls of 660 respondents, conducted last night, and it finds the two parties deadlocked on two-party preferred. Labor’s primary vote is down four points on last week to 38 per cent, with the Coalition up three to 45 per cent. It also finds Tony Abbott’s approval rating (up six to 52 per cent) has overtaken Julia Gillard’s (steady on 46 per cent), with Gillard’s disapproval up two to 39 per cent and Abbott’s down two to 38 per cent. However, Gillard retains a 48-37 lead as preferred prime minister. Gender gaps are found to have rapidly narrowed, and while there is evidence for this across the board, Morgan has perhaps strained credulity in finding the Coalition 0.5 per cent ahead on two-party preferred among women and behind 0.5 per cent among men.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,059 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 50-50”

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  3. ;[889 David
    Posted Wednesday, August 4, 2010 at 11:40 pm | Permalink
    Thanks My Say…I feel good vibes now that the Rudder is on the scene again, he will do his thing, he is a Labor political]

    people will call us all sorts of things we know that but we dont care we are all in this together as i told the black one we get over things very quickly we are family

  4. What was even worse: the sight of old ladies treating Abbott like he’s a rock star!
    Have Abbott and Bronny yet told us how they propose to pay for that policy? 😉

  6. Glen if Costello had challanged Howard and replaced him would you have been as upset as you claim to be over Jules replacing Kevin?

  8. BB @ 877,

    I’d mostly agree with that.

    My snarkiness was about a private exchange between himself and Philip Adams.

    It was, of course, Adams (and not Marr) who dangled it in front of Rudd on national radio.

  11. Oh it was Albo that launched the high speed rail link study? Very bizzare. Newcastle to sydney makes more sense than sydney melbourne though.

    Completely unaffordable and unbuildable. All the serious infrastructure guys know this. Just look at a topographic map. THe dissected sydney sandstone country is a killer.

  12. the problem with older people really old people they think the liberals are still like the menzies days but then my dad called him pig iron bob

  13. Kevin Rudd has pressed all of the right buttons with his radio interview tonight, and there can’t be any reasonable criticism of the points he has made.

    He has said that he will campaign for the re-election of a Gillard Government, and that he will attend the party launch, rightly pointing out that he doesn’t want his presence to turn into a distraction, but he does want to support the ALP team.

    Unbelievably, the idiots on SkyNews say that this may be a negative for the Government, using the twisted logic that somehow people in Queensland will end up having more sympathy for Rudd now, therefore would be more likely to lodge a ‘protest’ vote for the Coalition???

    Celina Edmonds, an alleged ‘national affairs reporter’ who mispronounces the word ‘proviso’ as ‘provisor,’ advanced this errant nonsense, making a point with some gravity that some Queensland seats (implying multiples) were won by less than a 100 votes, therefore these mythical ‘protest’ voters would swarm to the Coalition after this Rudd interview and sway these close seats over to the LNP?

    I am unsure where these phantom seats with a margin of ‘less than a 100 votes’ are in Queensland – the closest of the Labor seats is the notionally ALP Herbert held by the Liberal’s Peter Lindsay who is not recontesting, on a small margin to the ALP after the redistribution of 0.4 %, but with 96,000 enrolled electors, 0.4% margin is much more like 500 votes. The next closest seat for the ALP is Dickson on 1% which is also a Labor notional with Peter Dutton the sitting member who has been blocked from jumping ship to a safer seat – where on earth are these ‘less than 100 vote’ marginal ALP seats? Ill informed crap, without any foundation and this is what passes for factual analysis by these allegedly ‘professional’ journalists!

    Such utter tripe only goes to confirm that these News Ltd clowns will contort any situation, manipulate any facts, and bias any opinion into a minus for the ALP.

  15. You have to give it to Kevin R he knows when to make a move, the Liberal machine will be shitting itself….damn he is good. What the hell went wrong internally to dump him, I’m lost. The media love to hate him but they love him 🙂

  16. BH – this election is up in the air, but in case you havent realised, the Greens getting Senate BOP aint in nearly as much doubt.

    How exactly is BOP Brown going to avoid ‘working with Abbott’ if Abbott becomes PM?

    Let’s can the silly stuff and get real, folks – eyes on the prize. 17 days to go.

  17. [link study? Very bizzare. Newcastle to sydney makes more sense than sydney melbourne though.]

    geez u lot have heart we can put the car on the ferry leave it with a freind and rain up to sydney gee there you go forgetting about us again but we love u

  18. BB @ 888

    The only sensible post on the topic. Rudd is just going to suck oxygen away from the ALP campaign – his gall bladder actaully gave the new Julia Gillard with added enzymes a bit of space for a few days.

  19. Is it constitutionally possible to sack a PM and instal a new leader of the majority political party in the HofR as the PM, when the government is in a caretaker role ?

  20. The Queensland LNP is making a name for itself for engineering election losses as though the losses are churned out by design. Basing their whole campaign on a punt that Rudd was not a big enough man to put the greater good before personality is a fatal mistake.

    It reeks of the way the Queensland Tories have snatched defeat from the for the best bit of two decades and they have learned nothing. Political incompetents who should be taken over by the National Party, I reckon. Sorry they’ve already tried that one! Next!

    If the Tories lose this election just chalk it up to the brainstrust of the Queenland National Party, they will understand perfectly.

  22. [The problem with Rudd’s interview tonight is that it’s all the media will want to talk about for a few days. Some will even venture that Rudd did this deliberately to steal the limelight from Julia, while on the surface professing to support her.]

    That was the take on SLYnews immediately after. I think they had no news to say, so they had a ‘discussion’ which basically said “well he had to do it” “he’ll suck Julia’s oxygen” etc etc.

    Usual pathetic stuff.

  27. The Rudd thing is nothing but gold for the ALP. It was the big unknown.

    Very solid interview which cannot really be spun very far.

  28. [923 jenauthor
    Posted Wednesday, August 4, 2010 at 11:47 pm | Permal]

    it may go on for a few days but the people who are the ones that care the abc and the msm can go and do what like and say if the people are happy with kevin being there they will just not listen switch off like we have already i did not even know about kevin tonight

  30. Well it is good news but Jules was just starting to hammer home the message about the economy and this will divert attention from that althugh it will be good for Kevin to activily support Jules.

  33. The Australian.

    [KEVIN Rudd tonight vowed to campaign for Julia Gillard’s re-election provided he recovered from his recent surgery and would not become a “distraction”.

    Breaking his silence since being toppled as prime minister in late June, Mr Rudd told ABC radio tonight he would “absolutely” take up the new Prime Minister’s offer last week to campaign for Labor around the country.

    However, he said that depended on no “major relapse” of his condition after surgery to remove his gall bladder on Friday and “that I’m not a distraction from a very serious debate about what we want for our country”.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/rudd-vows-to-campaign-for-gillard/story-fn59niix-1225901326059

    SMH.
    [Kevin Rudd has promised to campaign hard to get Labor re-elected and denied being the source of recent damaging leaks against the government.]
    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/stick-with-labor-rudd-urges-voters-20100804-11ftg.html

    The whole lot will have it covered tomorrow, talkback radio, Sky, 24 ABC, the lot.

    Put that in your pipe & smoke it Tone! 😉

    And I think this was a lead in to tonight’s Rudd interview. Julia has been well and truly in the loop and welcoming the Ruddster participation.

    [JULIA Gillard has reached out to Queenslanders angry about the way former prime minister Kevin Rudd was dumped, saying she felt their shock, and offered sympathy to her vanquished Labor colleague.

    Coming as close as she has to saying sorry for the events of June 23, the Prime Minister told The Courier-Mail she was “very, very sympathetic to Kevin and to the hurt” seen in the hours after he was shown the door by Labor MPs.

    Her campaign has been haunted by the Rudd-factor, with voter anger at the cutting down of a first-term prime minister and infighting flowing from tit-for-tat leaks in the early stages.]
    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/julia-gillard-apologises-to-queenslanders-for-the-way-former-prime-minister-kevin-rudd-was-dumped/story-fn5z3z83-1225901328607

  34. I was extremely confident of victory two weeks ago, my say, and I remain quietly confident today.

    Lets just say the first two weeks of ‘moving fwd’ somewhat shocked me out of complacency.

  38. Bushie

    kev has kept the ball in labor’s court

    good no?

    I heard snippets of the interview on Tony Delroy while in the car. Kev sounded not quite well, a little frail to my mind (as you’d expect). But what he said was good as far as it went. I noticed he didn’t refer to Gillard by name, only “the Prime Minister”, which will no doubt get a run.

    On balance, good, but there were too many holes in it, real or imaginary, to make it a lay-down misere.

    The media now clearly want to continue to promote the soap-opera aspects of the campaign, and the public, spoon fed a diet of fake “crises” and “ordeals” via reality TV, and gorged on tabloid stories about “nobody” celebrities and their phoney travails may well lap it up.

    Actually, I despair of what’s happening to Australia. It’s been dumbed down to levels I couldn’t have dreamt of even a decade ago. Journalists are nothing more than cheap peddlars of soft porn and even softer gossip. The travails of David Jones and its overpaid, spoilt staff members – male and female – bore me personally, but titilate the common herd. Schoolboy level debating points, lies and innuendos reign supreme. It’s no longer important who has the best policy or reasoned position, it only matter who got the best gotcha or the funniest putdown.

    So, don’t look for quick fixes to Labor’s campaign, amazang turnarounds or instant rehabilitations. Rudd’s interview will do some good, but I wouldn’t be banking on it being as big a game changer as many hope for.

  39. [Cycing & Smoking = Tone’s health policy]

    “After a long bike ride, I relax with a nice cigarette”

    Very 1950s, isn’t it?

    I guess if the shoe fits

  40. I only heard the bits of the Kevin Rudd interview that were played on Lateline, and the thing that struck me, a few days after surgery I know, is that he actually sounded most unwell, no spark at all.

  42. [A feasibility study only. He said it would be built privately.]

    If it cant be built. It cant be built- publicly or privately.

    There are two routes- one long, one short. Both bumpy. Both through the middle of national parks. Would have to clear 1000’s of hectares.

    No way it would get enviro approvals.

  44. [Glen if Costello had challanged Howard and replaced him would you haev felt agrived by that?]

    Mexi if you are talking the fellow who talked in German as the polls came out each time during campaign 07 then yes I’d have screamed blue murder and called Costello a traitor to Unca!

    But if you are talking about the Glen that I now am then I would say if Howie made a deal he should have honoured it.

    Jen I really take offense that you say I am or am not the real Glen.

  45. I feel a lot happier about my $100 on Labor to win tonight, especially as the ods are likely to start dropping for Labor now.

    You heard it here first folks.

    My say, you can sleep more soundly tonight. Mary Mac has delivered the Ruddster in Abbott smashing form back to the ALP. 😉

  46. [ However, he said that depended on no “major relapse” of his condition after surgery to remove his gall bladder on Friday ]

    In summary – the surgeon removed his gall bladder and his liver ?

  48. Unfortunatley all the infrastructure guys know the wish list for sydney infrastructure.

    M4 east tunnel
    NW and SW rail
    Link to f3

    perhaps another heavy rail to newcastle for freight

    that is it.

  49. Big Ship

    [Such utter tripe only goes to confirm that these News Ltd clowns will contort any situation, manipulate any facts, and bias any opinion into a minus for the ALP.]

    Of course, but that can’t take away from the fact that further ‘so called’ leaks are now out of the equation and that is what changed the polls around. On ward and upward from now on. I’m about to sign off and listen to LNL in the West – tissues at hand.

  50. [blackburnpseph]

    sounds like you hope thats so
    gee i had very big operation a few months ago 8 internst 8 out and i did not feel to bad o and they accidently cut my bladder.

    i was home in three days sitting around and felt good and i am not as fit a person as kevin and he had key hole surgery things have changed.

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