Morgan phone poll: 50-50

Morgan has published another of its mid-week phone polls of 660 respondents, conducted last night, and it finds the two parties deadlocked on two-party preferred. Labor’s primary vote is down four points on last week to 38 per cent, with the Coalition up three to 45 per cent. It also finds Tony Abbott’s approval rating (up six to 52 per cent) has overtaken Julia Gillard’s (steady on 46 per cent), with Gillard’s disapproval up two to 39 per cent and Abbott’s down two to 38 per cent. However, Gillard retains a 48-37 lead as preferred prime minister. Gender gaps are found to have rapidly narrowed, and while there is evidence for this across the board, Morgan has perhaps strained credulity in finding the Coalition 0.5 per cent ahead on two-party preferred among women and behind 0.5 per cent among men.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,059 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 50-50”

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  1. [ I’d love Kev and anyone else to sue him cos he wouldn’t have the dosh for a big payout.
    ]

    How do you know what his bank balance is ?

    Rumour has it he is buying a house on the North Shore. Houses there don’t sell for peanuts.

  2. blackburnpseph already retired from Parliament by 1993. Well and truly out of the picture. Kevin Rudd, though, has evidently not decided that his political career is over yet.

  3. “The final week would be a good time for a joint appearance with Julia, at the launch, or on some other occasion.”

    If the polls are running anywhere like they are now, that would seem a totally desperate move. The Australian public are savvy enough to see through and not buy ” first you knife him, now you need him” .

  4. Net Veg – what I getting at was, did Bob appear with the man who dumped him? I am aware he had left the main stage by then.

  5. [if labor pick up a net of 5/6 seats from SA, Vic, WA]

    I have the ALP winning La Trobe, McEwen, Hughes and Sturt. That’s it. At the moment.

  6. leftye – the person who also needs to change his tune in a hurry is Bob Brown. He’s making a big thing of being able to work with Tony Abbott.

    I find that incomprehensible. What on earth have they got in common except the Abbott Army idea.

    The Greens have got a couple of Unions backing them as well as Dick Smith but I can’t see the Unions thinking that Brown should cosy up to Abbott.

  7. [I suppose you want me to believe that the thugs had no part in twisting a few arms of members of the party room, just to encourage them to see things in the same way they did.]

    C’mon you guys. You’re go over the same tired old ground. Nobody here except Pseph has any idea what actually happened. But even if we did — it is past. You cannot go back. Deal with whats in front of you, not what is behind.

    We have an election happening and we NEED to win it no matter who is in charge — because if Abbott is PM in a couple of weeks, I’m on a plane to Holland! We sure as hell won’t be the ‘lucky country’ 3 years from now if that sinister man is our PM

  8. [751 David
    Posted Wednesday, August 4, 2010 at 10:56 pm | Permalink
    scorpio #652 …we should all of us and tell our friends, family workmates, email, fax, phone the Rudders HQ, thank ]

    his email is not now listed on the site but ring the charming girl will give it to you
    his electorate office

  9. blackburnpseph

    Net Veg – what I getting at was, did Bob appear with the man who dumped him?

    Ok. My answer to that would be: not very likely. Not as far as I recall. By all accounts, including their own, the two could not stand each other.

  10. Strange how popular Tory debt and deficit has become in Herbert.

    [The Liberal Party’s treasury spokesman Joe Hockey raised the roof of a Townsville Chamber of Commerce luncheon at Rydges Southbank yesterday to announce support for the Townsville City Council project.

    Mr Hockey committed to providing $47.67 million as a one third share as well as making $2.5 million immediately available upon its election for the council to fund design work.

    The announcement was met with spontaneous applause from about 100 people at the luncheon.

    “As a former tourism minister I know how important business tourism is to a centre,” Mr Hockey said.]

    http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/article/2010/08/04/160131_federal_election_2010.html

  11. [Glen is trying to find excuses to vote for Tony without having to actually endorse Tony]

    And Kevin’s knifing by Gillard is good enough reason for me 😀

  12. [Posted Wednesday, August 4, 2010 at 11:33 pm | Permalink
    leftye – the person who also needs to change his tune in a hurry is Bob Brown. He’s making a big thing of being able to work with Tony Abbott.

    I find that incomprehensible. What on earth have they got in common except the Abbott Army]

    coo ee any one there the post about the abc any one got any plans

  13. I can’t get my hopes up about Pyne losing, but oh boy, it’d be sweet for that smug look to be wiped off his face. 😀
    Not quite as satisfying as the man who is acting like he’s won already getting shafted in 2 and a half weeks – the cockiness of Abbott is sickening, but I suppose when you’ve got News Ltd/the ABC/talkback radion supporting you – arrogance does set in. 😉

  14. BH – the Greens tv ad i have seen is Bob talking up Labor on the economy and seeking the a vote for the greens in the upper. perfect pitch for mine.

  15. [Scringler
    Posted Wednesday, August 4, 2010 at 10:44 pm | Permalink
    Psephos @ 388 and scorpio @ 429

    So. From your replies, I have to assume that the Liberal Party’s (secret) agenda is to flog the ABC.]

    so is this all there was

  16. In defence of Marr…

    Kev did give him 100% access for a few days and as a result had to cop whatever Marr wrote.

    I don’t really think the essay was that bad. Pretty accurate, actually.
    Certainly arguable, as an essay should be. It was picked up and taken the wrong way deliberately by a hostile media (now professing to adore Rudd, incidentally).

    Marr is not an enemy of Labor. He just wrote what he thought was right, and argued his case pretty well, whether you or I agree with it. It was fair comment in my opinion.

  17. [ALP to announce feasability study into high speed rail link between Newcastle and Sydney, as first step towards fast train down east coast about 1 hour ago via TweetDeck ]

    Albo said it on LL by the sounds of things.

    Time for bed – stay warm TSOP and get better quickly.

    Night all

  18. [a former tourism minister I know how important business tourism is to a centre,” Mr Hockey said.]

    there was a story in the oo today about joes previous position as sports minister any one read it

  19. evan14,

    [Rudd singlehandedly just derailed the Coalition’s entire QLD campaign – so hopefully we’ll have no more phoney crocodile tears from the likes of that prick Dutton.]

    I “was” going to bed a little while ago but couldn’t until I responded to this and the naysayers who are still bleating.

    The Ruddster will have a bigger media pack following his every move from here on in. He is “NEWS’ with a capital N.

    Just watch the polling in those Qld marginals turn around now. Everywhere Rudd goes and everything he says from now on will get top level coverage.

    Abbott & Co will be overdosing on quickeze tonight and tomorrow trying to steady the fast rising nervous stomach acid rising up into their throats.

    This is the biggest event in the whole campaign, no doubt.

  20. [“Et tu, Brute?”]

    Words Kevin said when Gillard came knocking one cold June night….

    It is hilarious if the only reason Labor scrapes home is because of the man they knifed as PM. Gillard, Bitar, Shorten and Arbib dont deserve Rudd to be honest.

  21. The problem with Rudd’s interview tonight is that it’s all the media will want to talk about for a few days. Some will even venture that Rudd did this deliberately to steal the limelight from Julia, while on the surface professing to support her.

  22. Thanks My Say…I feel good vibes now that the Rudder is on the scene again, he will do his thing, he is a Labor political animal, if anyone believes he wants Abbot to win this election ahead of his party, they are in noddy land. KR will sort out his plan of attack for his future after the election, now this party needs him and he wants it to win…he loves a scrap.

  23. I bet the Liberals bring back out the “Kevin Lemons”, which would be in poor taste(why I expect them to pull such a stunt LOL). 😉

  24. [ALP to announce feasability study into high speed rail link between Newcastle and Sydney, as first step towards fast train down east coast about 1 hour ago via TweetDeck ]

    ah i spoke to a green that wanted this some time ago good timing

  25. [And Kevin’s knifing by Gillard is good enough reason for me :D]

    I knew the real Glen would emerge some time soon.

    Never mind, you’re still young, you might broaden your mind as you get older.

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