Morgan phone poll: 50-50

Morgan has published another of its mid-week phone polls of 660 respondents, conducted last night, and it finds the two parties deadlocked on two-party preferred. Labor’s primary vote is down four points on last week to 38 per cent, with the Coalition up three to 45 per cent. It also finds Tony Abbott’s approval rating (up six to 52 per cent) has overtaken Julia Gillard’s (steady on 46 per cent), with Gillard’s disapproval up two to 39 per cent and Abbott’s down two to 38 per cent. However, Gillard retains a 48-37 lead as preferred prime minister. Gender gaps are found to have rapidly narrowed, and while there is evidence for this across the board, Morgan has perhaps strained credulity in finding the Coalition 0.5 per cent ahead on two-party preferred among women and behind 0.5 per cent among men.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,059 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 50-50”

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  1. evan14

    Once again it shows the quality of Rudd, his loyalty to the party and true team player.

    When the knock on the door came, he put up show of resistance buy layed down his sword instead of fighting, withdrew to the backbench with grace, kept a low profie to not steal JG’s sun, did not resign his seat in disgust and now has called for unity in the face of the common enemy. He did not take his bad a ball and cause a byelection. Thats why the leak affair is certainly not from him.

  2. Itep @ 707

    I want some journo to stand up at Abbott’s next press conference and ask: If you are elected to Government, what are your plans for the ABC?

    Then watch his eyes …

  3. [Please remind me why Peter Costello never became Liberal leader eventhough there was an agreement in place.]

    What does that have to do with knifing a 1st Term PM.

    I dont care what political party you’re from that’s not cool!

  4. [795 blackburnpseph
    Posted Wednesday, August 4, 2010 at 11:09 pm | Permalink
    “The man who, love him or loathe him, fell for his Party ”

    For goodness sake, glory @ 769, fell for his party, Yes he did ]

    black one we do not think like you. we love , we fogive and forget, and that is what kevin is doing, labor people are a people un to themselves like no other.

  5. And don’t get me started on the ultimate tool Latham, who should crawl back into whatever hole he emerged from!
    That man is hardly loyal to the Labor Party, considering that he’s currently being paid by Murdoch to act as a Liberal attack dog and spout his poison on Murdoch TV.
    Latham is very lucky that Rudd isn’t sueing him for libel, although Kevin is probably better advised to just ignore that dickhead.
    I can’t believe I actually voted for Latham in 2004! 😆

  6. TSOP
    I heard your mate in Sturt, Chrissy, made a visit to a school in his electorate and when asked by a parent about their new (welcomed) school hall there said they didn’t need it – and left everyone red faced and quiet.
    Also that some of the Libs in his electorate (I guess dries) are not helping him and helping in other unnecessary seats.
    He’s not a bad guy but has turned off too many people and chickens coming home to roost methinks.
    Anyway, off the campaign trail for you and chicken soup.

  7. Glen – I agree that Rudd should have remained ALP leader just as I think Turnbull shoudl be Liberal leader.

    Sadly asnd you have said it before Glen, politics can be nasty business

  8. [David Marr is to the Left as Piers is to the Right]

    I wouldn’t say Marr is THAT far to the left. He certainly is not a party cheerleader either, unlike the other tedious fellow.

  9. Marr’s attitude towards Bill Henson turned me off too!
    I don’t want to reopen that debate, but I’ll just add that child porn masquerading as “art” doesn’t validate the principle of free speech/artistic expression.

  10. Cuppa, I meant in terms of his blantant bias and his refusal to say anything positive about the other side of politics or people that disagree with him.

    He is very smug and arrogant

  11. Glen

    after the election a fully picture will emerge

    i was tres pissed off about kevs “knifing”

    but now i understand the only knifing was by a surgeon

    kev has no problem

    Why You?

  12. I agree with TH and TSOP: Rudd is the secret weapon. Highly effective in QLD.

    Lets get real objective and real here people, whatever your position was, prepare for the following FACT:

    If Abbott doesnt storm QLD, its game over.

    Pack up your card tables and HTVs, cos Gillard is moving into the Lodge.

    Leave the bad blood behind. If Kev can do it – those on the other side bloody well ought to.

    Get Kev on board. Give him the FM job. Give him any damn job senior he wants. I agree he shouldnt “campaign” per se – but a well timed speech showing he’s buried the hatchet and backing JG will work a treat.

    And no welching on his FM job afterwards either. 🙂

  13. [A true Labor hero shouldnt have been knifed the way he was.]

    What happened is past tense. Get over it and move forward. Rudd is. Forget the crocodile tears Glen.

  14. I admit I was cold about Rudd’s deposing and jumped on the Gillard bandwagon a little too quick for some of you. And may have just seemed like a party zombie, but if it’s any consolation I had tears when I went to bed that night. He did mean a lot to me as PM and I know it wouldn’t have been an easy decision to remove him.

  15. Just watching the Ten late night news and I can’t see how Rudd entering the campaign will be a negative for Labor. They suggested it might distract from Gillard’s economic message, but I doubt that will be for very long, if at all. Working with Rudd allows Gillard to take more ownership of Labor’s economic record, which is very much to her and Labor’s advantage. Plus of course, if it means no more leaks, and makes it clear Rudd wasn’t the leaker, that also helps end the damaging perception of disunity. Two big steps forward.

    Several posters were quite ungratious in the past about Rudd’s reaction to his very poor treatment by Labor. Their comments now look even more inappropriate.

  16. [Cuppa, I meant in terms of his blantant bias and his refusal to say anything positive about the other side of politics or people that disagree with him.]

    On the other hand, Marr did criticise Kevin Rudd. Quite rudely too. And they’re from the same ‘side’.

    Have you ever heard Acherman criticise the Liberals or say a good word about Labor?

    –Never. He’s a 110% ideology-in-a-matchbox cheerleader and operative.

  17. Rudd singlehandedly just derailed the Coalition’s entire QLD campaign – so hopefully we’ll have no more phoney crocodile tears from the likes of that prick Dutton.

  18. [I thought there was bugger all at stake in WA, because it was so bad in 07 anyway? Isnt it one seat or something?]

    I think we got just over 46% there last time. So we’re nearing the floor of seats in WA (barring an anti-RSPT style backlash) that’s why the emphasis is on QLD and NSW (which is not that strange because NSW pretty much always decides elections)

  19. My Say

    I think I will take this one phrase at a time

    “black one”- I like that ” we do not think like you” – and I do not think like you, a small mercy there. “we love”” – we all need to someone to love , “we fogive and forget,” – My Say, learn your Labor history, is all about not forgiving and not forgetting “and that is what kevin is doing” – and if you believe that, you probaly believe their are fairies at the bottom of your garden as well, “labor people are a people un to themselves like no other.” – reading this blog site, I know, God knows I know, and sometimes it is not a pretty or particularly open minded sight.

  20. when i see him out campaigning i have two big thank yous to give him. the first is for deposing the rodent. and the second is for sticking solid with the team.

  21. #788
    [ Kevin was removed because he had lost the support of the party room ]

    Why had he lost the support of the party room ?

    I suppose you want me to believe that the thugs had no part in twisting a few arms of members of the party room, just to encourage them to see things in the same way they did.

  22. TSOP

    Even if it is a bad cold, and you don’t mind taking medication Cold and flu capsules work a treat.

    You need to stay well. We need your positivity to get us through!!

  23. Bascially the South East Queensland serats will be held and Ryan, Longman, Bonner and Dickson will be back in play, I just think the issues in northern Queensland are too deep at this stage for the ALP to overcome.

  24. [I can’t believe I actually voted for Latham in 2004! ]

    Voted for him Evan! He’s made me feel embarrassed that I did some hard yards for the turncoat. I wonder whether he gets paid for his appearances.

    I’d love Kev and anyone else to sue him cos he wouldn’t have the dosh for a big payout.

  25. [David Marr is to the Left as Piers is to the Right]

    Sorry to be quoting wiki, but the comment deserves it

    [Marr has published several books including a critically acclaimed biography of Australian writer Patrick White, which won The Age Book of the Year award and the New South Wales Premier’s Literary Award for Non-Fiction. More recently, Marr wrote, along with Marian Wilkinson, Dark Victory, an account of the 2001 Australian election campaign in the wake of the Tampa affair.

    His books include:
    Barwick 1980
    The Ivanov Trail 1984
    Patrick White: A Life 1991
    Patrick White: Letters 1994
    The High Price of Heaven 2000
    Dark Victory (with Marian Wilkinson) 2004
    Quarterly Essay Issue 26, His Master’s Voice: The Corruption of Public Debate under Howard 2007
    The Henson Case 2008
    Power Trip: The Political Journey of Kevin Rudd, 2010]

    vs

    [Akerman began his media career at Western Australia’s only daily, The West Australian. He then moved on to the short-lived Victorian newspaper Newsday and took his first News Limited job at the Daily Mirror in Sydney. He was briefly at The Australian as Foreign Editor in 1983.
    He worked for a time at British national newspaper, The Times, and spent ten years as a foreign correspondent in the United States of America. On returning to Australia, he was editor of The Advertiser, Adelaide (1988) and The Sunday Herald Sun, Melbourne (1990). During 1990-92 he was editor-in-chief of the Herald & Weekly Times group in Melbourne before becoming a vice-president of Fox News, USA in 1993.
    Akerman’s columns were noted for raising the ire of the former leader of the Australian Labor Party and the Federal Opposition, Mark Latham, among others. Latham was known to weave complaints about Akerman’s writing into his speeches and, in 2002, while protected by parliamentary privilege, publicly accused Akerman of being addicted to cocaine well into the 1980s.]

    Not much of a comparison really.

  26. 828

    I suppose you want me to believe that the thugs had no part in twisting a few arms of members of the party room, just to encourage them to see things in the same way they did.

    OMG. Are you saying that people were actually physically threatened with rubber hoses?

  27. [Even if it is a bad cold, and you don’t mind taking medication Cold and flu capsules work a treat.

    You need to stay well. We need your positivity to get us through!!]

    I’ll be alright. I just hate illness. There’s always so much to do and so little time to do it. I can do research instead. (Providing I’m not out of it.)

  28. Middle Man: let Rudd be fully recovered first before we send him out across the country – I’d be happy if he just confines himself to Griffith for now, or he could help out in the neighbouring Bonner and Moreton(which are both more marginal).
    The final week would be a good time for a joint appearance with Julia, at the launch, or on some other occasion.

  29. Well, no one disputed the wisdom of the knifing more than I did, here and particularly at LP – and frankly, I believe time has vindicated my position.

    But recent polls have focussed my eyes on a more compellingly immediate matter:

    ABBOTT. MUST. LOSE.

    Then Ill no doubt carry on at great length about how Rudd would won easier – but I think we’ll just to have to save that fun for later 🙂

  30. Re Rudd’s Attendance at the Campaign Launch:

    PHILLIP ADAMS; OK Let’s look at another question of attendance. Today Paul Keating said he won’t be going to the policy launch, he has fortunately a diary conflict. I would imagine that nothing on earth would persuade Paul.
    KEVIN RUDD: What’s Paul up to?

    PHILLIP ADAMS: Nothing on earth would persuade Paul to sit in the same hall as Bob at the moment, but you will remember at your policy speech you got a full house. You got Gough, you got Paul and you got Bob, all at least feigning mutual enthusiasm for each other, and endorsing you. Now Paul’s not going, Gough can’t go, it must be a very difficult decision for you to decide whether you should attend because surely if you do, the cameras will never leave your face. You might in fact be a huge distraction?

    KEVIN RUDD; Look I think it’s pretty important that the team comes, ah comes first. I’m always concerned about being some sort of side show to the main event because the main even tis what’s important. The main event is the country’s future and that will be what the Prime Minister has to say.

    But look, what’s my predisposition? I will be there but on the condition that I don’t have a major relapse before then and secondly, that I’m not a distraction from what I think is a pretty serious debate about what sort of future we want for our country and I don’t think it’s a debate which we can allow – with only two and half weeks to go before D Day, that we can’t allow to be trivialised. It’s too important.

     http://www.abc.net.au/rn/latenightlive/stories/2010/2973665.htm#transcript 

  31. [I had tears when I went to bed that night. He did mean a lot to me as PM and I know it wouldn’t have been an easy decision to remove him.]

    By the look of Gillard’s face the next morning I think she may have too and the talk was from a couple of journos that she was distressed about it. She took one for the Party in the same way Kev did.

    Let’s get them both back on track now. It will be good for all of Labor and us.

  32. I’d agree that Flynn, Leichhardt and Dawson especially are probably beyond saving, so I’d concentrate more on holding the likes of Petrie/Forde/Blair/Bonner/Moreton/Longman.
    If you limit the Lib gains in QLD to 5 seats, that’s not critical for Labor.

  33. if labor pick up a net of 5/6 seats from SA, Vic, WA … I can’t see how even a catastrophe of a uniform swing at the present level in QLD and NSW would be enough for the coalition to win power. and we all know swings aren’t uniform.. still labor’s to lose.

    personally I think Qld will be a wild ride… massive swings in your Dawson’s / Longman’s … not enough in your Petrie’s and Bonners.. etc…. Rudd will help in suburban Brisbane so even if the north returns to its normal voting pattern if he can help save Bonner and Brisbane I don’t think they can get enough…

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