Morgan phone poll: 50-50

Morgan has published another of its mid-week phone polls of 660 respondents, conducted last night, and it finds the two parties deadlocked on two-party preferred. Labor’s primary vote is down four points on last week to 38 per cent, with the Coalition up three to 45 per cent. It also finds Tony Abbott’s approval rating (up six to 52 per cent) has overtaken Julia Gillard’s (steady on 46 per cent), with Gillard’s disapproval up two to 39 per cent and Abbott’s down two to 38 per cent. However, Gillard retains a 48-37 lead as preferred prime minister. Gender gaps are found to have rapidly narrowed, and while there is evidence for this across the board, Morgan has perhaps strained credulity in finding the Coalition 0.5 per cent ahead on two-party preferred among women and behind 0.5 per cent among men.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,059 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 50-50”

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  1. I was just wondering which political party (if any) commissioned the advertisement shot yesterday in which some old (over 60 year old) “rappers” rap about Climate Change and them not being concerned about it ‘cos they will be dead soon.

  2. scorpio #652 …we should all of us and tell our friends, family workmates, email, fax, phone the Rudders HQ, thank him for his effort tonight, tell him the party needs him and by the ghost of all labor people past and present tell him we still love ya Kev, which I think we do, go get that wanker Abbott….damn I feel good for saying that….this blonde headed round faced champ knows he is still loved and wanted, best he is told…he can get this damn govt over the line…what his reward will be/ I hear you cry…I think we all know kevin Rudd was never going to go away, he may be many things,but he is a damn fighter. We have not heard the last of this man. But for the next 2 weeks Labor need him and he knows it. Sorry Julia but you are not doing it for us.

  3. I can put up with a lot of things, but I draw the line at 10 seconds, much less 10 whole minutes of the smug, smarmy, ever-smirking George Brandis in any format: feathered, finned or televisual.

  4. Mikeisright

    That policy is another back of the envelope solution, these people think in terms of throwing money at problems.

    Encouraging older worker into the labour market is much more complicated than that, in my real life we actually worked on such proposals and the issues became very complex because traditional methods do not work.

  5. [Strauss’ have been defaced a fair bit too (which I hate for any candidate) along Yorktown Road]

    Yes, I have zero tolerance towards electoral vandalism (regardless of who benefits.) Which part of Yorktown was it? The Craigmore area, or the Elizabeth East/Park part because if it’s the latter, it wouldn’t surprise me as that it where the heart of Labor’s vote would be in this seat.

  6. [A Feasability Study into A High Speed Rail Link between Melb and Sydney. ]

    This would be to appease the Greens and put infrastructure onto the front page.

  7. [ I don’t agree with that. I reckon Kev’s intelligent to understand that his colleagues need his attention a little more and he could come back like Howard did – bigger and better than ever.
    And stick it right up all those media opinionistas.
    ]

    AND stick it right up Labor’s right-wing-nutters at the same time.

  8. leftwingpinko,

    [I also think Rudd sucks up Julias oxygen and reminds people of the damned leaks.]

    I have no idea where you get that from. Rudd just cranked up the bellows and injected new life and extra omph to the campaign.

    And it couldn’t come at a better time IMO; 😉

    I’m off to sleep a much sounder one than I have for days now. Night all.

  9. RE: Rudd interview

    Won’t be significant. In a positive way it will be seen as a unified approach. In a negative way it will take wind out of whatever Gillard’s economy message is tomorrow.

  10. BB smarmy is the only word to describe Brandis 🙂

    How many of the people calling him a champion were dancing over his corpse not long ago?

    He was so badly treated by them and yet he’s the only person to help them even though they dont deserve it.

  11. Glen, have to say I agree with you, what here will be is a load of spin from both sides. what effect it will have on the non rusted on is uncertain.

  12. One objective criticism I have to offer Tone is that he has got to stop saying “This shows how desperate Gillard is because her campaign is dead” or whatever, and instead try “This shows how desperate Gillard is and what a tight contest this is going to be.” I know it sounds cliche but there is a reason why political leaders claim the contest is always neck and neck.

  13. “”Theres no way Rudd will be PM again unless Labor get very desperate.””

    Disagree Rudd stepping upto the plate now means the ALP owes him big time, big time. Down the track if things change I would not rule out leadership for this guy. The interview tonight was an example of true leadership.

  14. I agree Tones overreached with his confidence today.

    There’s still an outside chance he’ll Clegg it back to 53-47 on the day if he acts like a pork chop for 2 weeks.

  15. I tell you what though. If Gillard wins, and the economy keeps going onwards and upwards and the Labor GFC success is written correctly in history, Rudd will be written in very positively. The man who, love him or loathe him, fell for his Party after saving the country from recession. Not a bad way to be seen.

  16. I was one of those who thought that dumping Kev was a good idea – and people tipped a bucket over me for saying so.

    But while I’m still of theopinion that we needed that change – hearing Kev tonight has proven that he is above all a man of the party and he isn’t one to hold a grudge or sulk or backstab.

    He may have stuffed uup in the latter days of his PM‘ship, but that interview has sure ensured that he has a future in an ALP Govt on the Front Bench.

    And in one 10 minute interview he has single-hadedly given the Campaign a much needed boost.

    GO KEV.

  17. Spectator, you don’t think that opens Labor up to attack?

    “the party knifed you once before. Can you guarantee you’ll be leader for a full term?”

    Its not going to happen. Especially not if Labor lose the election.

  18. [Pebbles

    Eliz East/Park, closer to Main North Road.

    How’s things going down in Sarre territory this week?]

    I hear well. I have gotten sick and am now sitting here with an oncoming cold/flu (worst time to get it) which means I am going to be out of action for a couple of days. 🙁

  19. If Rudd delivers a similar speech at the Campaign launch, he’ll be regarded as a true Labor hero.
    It takes a lot of guts(poor choice of words in the circumstances) to swallow your pride and bitterness, and work for the greater good of the team as a whole, which really sets him apart from Hawke and Keating. 🙂

  20. [Pebbles, Abbott might be going for the bandwagon effect to get him over the line in a fe stubborn marginals.]

    I know what he’s trying to do, but he may risk complacency or at worst, perceived arrogance.

  21. the spectator
    The interview tonight was an example of an exemplary politician.

    From LaurieOakes on twitter…
    [Smooth Operator #ruddsongs 5:18 PM Jul 30th via web ]

  22. jenauthor

    Thats true I did not think of it that was, just too cynical as have seen this so many times, always ends up, too expensive, fares will be too hire, can’t compete with the plane, won’t work without private investment, private investment won’t do it as negative return!

    The bad thing is a decent rail like would be a great thing, much prefer it to flying.

  23. Interesting aside from the Rudd interview came from Adams, and it showed how mean David Marr’s thinking was.

    Apparently Adams asked Marr why he thought Rudd attended QT the day after. According to Adams, Marr said it showed that Rudd “doesn’t have a Plan B”.

    Nasty little so-and-so. He needs a bitchy amateur psychoanalysis himself.

  24. Dagget @ 739 and Middle Man @ 740

    That’s exactly the impression I got from the interview.

    I’m afraid I switched off after the after he and Adams finished so I don’t know what was said about Mark Latham. The man’s name makes me shudder.

    Goodnight all – hoping for a lot of positive commentary from the media about KR (slim chance) but you never know!

  25. [ The man who, love him or loathe him, fell for his Party after saving the country from recession.]

    He didn’t fall for his Party.

    He was violently pushed by a mob of thugs – and from a very great height.

  26. [I hear well. I have gotten sick and am now sitting here with an oncoming cold/flu (worst time to get it) which means I am going to be out of action for a couple of days.]

    Ah no good mate. Get well.

    Good luck with campaign SLP (Seeya Later Pyne)

  27. [If Rudd delivers a similar speech at the Campaign launch, he’ll be regarded as a true Labor hero.]

    He already is. 🙂

    But I get what you mean too.

  28. [ hear well. I have gotten sick and am now sitting here with an oncoming cold/flu (worst time to get it) which means I am going to be out of action for a couple of days.]

    o dear you must of caught it from me it takes nearly a week to get rid of lots of oranges and lemon juice for you young man

  29. [Gillard never earnt the office of PM a]

    Glen – come to my village. The school and the community are rejoicing in using the fabulous school hall for activities every afternoon and night of the week.

    The school gets the money from all the different dance, yoga, exercise and other groups using it. More get togethers in terrific surroundings for the community, more money for the school.

    They think Gillard is a genius.

  30. allan i dont think it matters about the media the people will make up their own minds on this one the media have no influence at all

  31. Peter – Kevin was removed because he had lost the support of the party room, there is no shame in that fact, managers gain or lose positions everyday depending on who has support and who doesn’t. Their was no thugly, I don’t see Kevin wearing a black eye.

  32. [I can put up with a lot of things, but I draw the line at 10 seconds, much less 10 whole minutes of the smug, smarmy, ever-smirking George Brandis in any format: feathered, finned or televisual.]

    I’m with you BB.

    Abbott, Brandis, Abetz, Pyne, The two Bishops and Morrison … in descending order are people who actually make my flesh crawl.

  33. [Ah no good mate. Get well.

    Good luck with campaign SLP (Seeya Later Pyne)]

    Thanks mate.

    I’d like to try and make it SLPS (Seeya Later Pyne & Southcott.)

  34. David Marr is typical of the Greens and their supporters in “Cafe Late Land” – they’d be willing to cop an Abbott Government, because then they’d be happy to maintain their high ideals without ever being responsible for putting these into practice.

  35. Glen -m Please remind me why Peter Costello never became Liberal leader eventhough there was an agreement in place.

    We both know that Howard slighted Costello

  36. “The man who, love him or loathe him, fell for his Party ”

    For goodness sake, glory @ 769, fell for his party, Yes he did fall … as people do when they are pushed off a very big cliff and in the same piece you talk about history being written correctly in the previous sentence. Read it back out loud and see where the inherent contradiction is.

  37. [o dear you must of caught it from me it takes nearly a week to get rid of lots of oranges and lemon juice for you young man]

    I hope it’s just a bad cold. I’ll be fine in no time.

    Nevertheless. No contact with potential voters at all. Don’t want Labor to be the party of carrying germs…

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