Advertiser poll: 52-48 to Liberal in Boothby

Adelaide’s Sunday Mail newspaper (a News Limited stablemate of The Advertiser) has published a poll of 564 voters conducted on Wednesday in the Adelaide electorate of Boothby, which shows the Liberals with a 52-48 two-party lead. This represents a 1 per cent swing to Labor, but it comes off a disastrous local campaign in 2007 when the swing to Labor was limited to 2.4 per cent, compared with 6.8 per cent statewide. On the primary vote, Liberal member Andrew Southcott is on 46 per cent against 35 per cent for Labor candidate Annabel Digance, 10 per cent for the Greens and 3 per cent for Family First. Further attitudinal questions are better for Labor than might be expected: the Liberals’ lead as best party to manage the economy is 48 per cent to 43 per cent, Labor leads on the River Murray 46 per cent to 29 per cent, and 45 per cent of respondents believed Gillard cares more about families compared with 36 per cent for Tony Abbott. The margin of error on the poll is about 4 per cent. The previous Advertiser poll a week ago had Labor with a staggering 67-33 lead in Kingston, where their margin is 4.5 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

981 comments on “Advertiser poll: 52-48 to Liberal in Boothby”

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  1. I’m in a bit of bother at the moment. I’ve got my son’s Corella sitting on my shoulder whole he does the washing up.

    He read Boerwar’s Galah recipe and promptly bit me on the ear! 😉

    With a bit of practice I should be able to match any Liberal at telling porkies! 😉

  2. AM

    I was feeling a little guilty because I didn’t put the reference in.

    Of course it is a serious recipe. I seem to recall that the Polynesians had vegetarian dogs which they ate, there being something of a lack of large protein/fat mammals in Polynesia.

    I believe that it is rather unusual, but not unknown, for humans to eat the top trophic level terrestrial mammals (cats, dogs, etc). By way of contrast, most cultures readily eat top trophic layer marine mammals, including dolphins and seals (I hesitate to say this, because of Finn’s sensitivities), as well as top trophic layer fish such as sharks.

  3. scorpio
    haha.

    I seem to recall hearing a corella recipe when I was a kid out in the bush. The punch line was that when the corella was cooked, check the corella away and eat the squawk.

  4. Dio,

    [Counting the senate, I’m up to six in the last decade]

    Are you like Billy Hughes and had to draw a line with voting for the Nats? 😉

  5. Boerwar at 708: I’ll also give the Bluey report a 10/10. “Rotting offal” is possibly the wrong description for Piers while he’s rolling around in his own filth, but maybe not. Bosintang does seem to be about right though.

    Dio at 842: I can only claim 5 parties. Do independents count in case of a draw though?

  6. Still waiting for the govt GFC ads.

    You know… saving loads of people from unemployment and avoiding recession during a global financial crisis is something worth crowing about.

    Whats going on with this? Is there some campaign strategy argument against doing so?

    Buggered if I can imagine what that would be. Seems completely nuts not to be hitting it 24/7.

    (…hang on …is the WA ALP campaign team in charge? )

  7. Boerwar, you suck and Bluey the octopus wouldn’t know a good political analysis if it hit him in his fat invertebrate head! 0/10

    Sorry, couldn’t help going against the majority. Seriously, Bluey’s analyses are a highlight of this blog 🙂

  8. lefty – they’re finding it difficult to heavily push their GFC success because Rudd was the face of it.

  9. Boerwar,

    Actually the truth, the scripted truth, the gospel truth is that the beggar bit me because I was laughing so much at the posts that I think I squashed his foot against the back of the chair.

    And that’s the gospel, carefully scripted truth so help me dog! 😉

  10. [I’ve got my son’s Corella sitting on my shoulder whole he does the washing up.]

    Corellas are gorgeous birds. I got trapped in an aviary in Tassie with a half a doz who wouldn’t let me leave.

  11. Boerwar

    I know I shouldn’t really be squeamish about such things but I have a gorgeous border collie/x (hence my avatar) and he would be horrified if I told him of such uncouth practices.

    Mind you I suppose I enjoy a good steak or barramundi etc……. so who am I to be judgemental about what other cultures eat? Could never eat a dolphin though so Finns is safe.

  12. TSOP
    Bluey is a great admirer of those who break with groupthink. If you ever get a chance, read the couple of books written by Arthur Grimble who was the colonialist in charge of the Gilbert and Ellice Islands between the wars. He had a very readable style, and was a fine observer.
    Somewhere in them there is a wonderful description of how the islanders used to catch the very big octopodes that inhabit the reefs there.
    (1) a young man dives down ocean side of the reef wall.
    (2) he allows a very big octopus to catch him.
    (3) young man’s mate dives down and kills the octopus.
    It is decades since I read it but that story of how you demonstrated courage as a young man impressed me mightly when I was a lad.

  13. [At the launch of National Cyber Security Awareness Week in Melbourne last June, Senator Conroy puzzled listeners by declaring: “There’s a staggering number of Australians being in having their computers infected at the moment, up to 20,000, uh, can regularly be getting infected by these spams, or scams, that come through, the portal (sic).”

    He later added: “If you were doing a banking transaction, or transmitting personal information, (Google) could have hoovered it up, sucked it up into their machine.”]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/zoo-weekly-dubs-stephen-conroy-dumbest-mp/story-fn3dxity-1225899711652

    Conroy is an idiot. Nothing but the loss of preselection would be good enough for him.

  14. Mick

    [Not one person here has shown evidence nor reason which would support the morality of telling the truth as an atheist.]

    There are several reasons why an atheist would tell the truth due to some compulsion.

    Existentialists, secular humanists and scientists all place a high personal value on on the morality of telling the truth.

    And then there are the evolutionary psychological reasons why humans feel the compulsion to tell the truth.

  15. BB
    How insensitive of me! Cacatua galerita is one of my favourite birds. Only two days ago I saw a pair displaying in a dead tree, arching their sulfur crests, hold their wings out, strutting their stuff, and getting ready for the next breeding season. Oh! and singing melodiously.

  16. OT but we seem to have left politics aside for a second. I think the Gilberts were renamed Kiribati at independence but are the Ellis Ilands now Tuvalu?

  17. Still waiting for the govt GFC ads.

    You know… saving loads of people from unemployment and avoiding recession during a global financial crisis is something worth crowing about.

    Yes Left E- 20 days and counting for the ads to appear. I too am waiting keenly for them.

  18. Bushfire Bill,

    [Needless to say, considering my choice of avatar, I condemn such recipes. ]

    Looks very much like a Labor Cocky to me BB! 😉

    They’re a protected species don’t you know! 😉

  19. scorps

    I’ve voted Labor, Lib (in fairness I’ve known Andrew Southcott since I was 12 and he’s a nice guy), Greens, Democrats, DFD and Mr X. And I plan to vote ASP this election.

  20. [Still waiting for the govt GFC ads.]

    I think we won’t see hard trumpeting of the economy until, at least, the RBA has made its decision on Tuesday. That way they know what hand they’re playing with.

  21. AM

    I think haunch of collie, roasted with pumpkin, potatoes, carrots and gravy, should really taste alright. Mind you, while growing up on a farm our rough rule of thumb was that if we were going to eat it, you did not give it a name.

  22. When I lived on a property in Burra (not SA but a community about 40kms SE of Canberra) I used to love the sulphur-crested cockies visiting, along with the galahs, King parrots and crimson rosellas.

    Unfortunately the cockies loved chewing the pergola and then started on the window frames, which I thought was a little ungrateful considering all the lovely seed I was feeding them, not to mention the cornucopia of seeds they ate from the flora around the house.

  23. [And then there are the evolutionary psychological reasons why humans feel the compulsion to tell the truth.]

    Oh dear! I hope that doesn’t mean that our Tone’s a throw-back to an earlier time? 😉

  24. [I think we won’t see hard trumpeting of the economy until, at least, the RBA has made its decision on Tuesday. That way they know what hand they’re playing with.]

    TSOP, good point.

  25. “”Not one person here has shown evidence nor reason which would support the morality of telling the truth as an atheist.””

    Yes Dostevsky asked this question in the Brothers Karamzov however why is the person of religion supposed to have the morality of telling the truth. As for evidence or reason the proof is required from you Mick to support your side of the argument that blind slavish following of a religion supposedly means you are a moralistic truth teller.

  26. [I’ve voted Labor, Lib (in fairness I’ve known Andrew Southcott since I was 12 and he’s a nice guy), Greens, Democrats, DFD and Mr X. And I plan to vote ASP this election]

    No Family First? You’re a part of the problem, heathen!

  27. [And then there are the evolutionary psychological reasons why humans feel the compulsion to tell the truth.]

    Apart from the obvious fact that by not being truthful you delude yourself, the attempted delusion of others is usually a need to gain power (obvious in Abbott’s case) or hide something you are ashamed of (also possible in Abbott’s case).

    Either way, it serves little purpose.

    Honest people never have anything to hide. Honest people respect themselves and others.

    But what would I know — I write fiction!

  28. [And then there are the evolutionary psychological reasons why humans feel the compulsion to tell the truth.

    Oh dear! I hope that doesn’t mean that our Tone’s a throw-back to an earlier time?

    No problem, God doesn’t believe in evolution.

  29. Octopodes is the plural of the Greek work octopos. However the English word octopus is not Greek, it is scientific Latin derived from Greek, as you can tell by the changed vowel at the end. Therefore the correct plural is octopi. However, an English plural is never wrong, so octopuses would also be correct.

  30. I think we won’t see hard trumpeting of the economy until, at least, the RBA has made its decision on Tuesday. That way they know what hand they’re playing with.

    Rates will not be going up. regardless of inflation the retail sector is catctus. get the ads on now.

  31. [Oh dear! I hope that doesn’t mean that our Tone’s a throw-back to an earlier time? ]
    His simean gait suggests that may be the case.

  32. [I think haunch of collie, roasted with pumpkin, potatoes, carrots and gravy, should really taste alright.]

    Guys — not funny — my puppy and constant companion of 11 years died last week so I am a little sensitive about doggie jokes right now.

  33. TSOP

    Thank you for the reference. Unfortunately, Bluey saw it and is now sulking in his tank. I am afraid that Bluey is about to get on his high seahorse. He thinks it is your typical humanoid barbaric behaviour, treating animals with disrespect… etc, etc…

    I make the observation in passing that, while Bluey has many fine attributes, he is almost certainly a fan of Hanson-Young.

  34. scorps

    [Oh dear! I hope that doesn’t mean that our Tone’s a throw-back to an earlier time? 😉 ]

    Not at all. Abbott still has the compulsion and will feel bad (a little at least) when he lies. Of course, people with narcissistic or antisocial personality disorder don’t really have that problem which is why so many politicians are narcissists.

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