In an inconvenient bit of timing for the psephological fraternity, the Australian Electoral Commission has published proposed draft boundaries of federal electorates for Victoria. Antony Green notes Sharman Stone’s seat of Murray is abolished – perhaps setting up a Liberal-versus-Nationals contest involving Stone at the next election in the seat of Mallee. The new seat is Burke, extending from the strongly Labor outer north of Melbourne through more conservative territory to the Macedon Ranges. Burke revives a name that was put out of commission when Victoria lost a seat at the previous redistribution, meaning Wills is no longer out on a limb. There is now a period where objections will be lodged and the boundaries probably slightly revised – obviously these boundaries will not be in effect for the election.
Please keep this thread for the redistribution – general discussion regarding the election should go to the thread below.
UPDATE: Some impressions gleaned from discussions here and elsewhere. Jenny Macklin’s seat of Jagajaga might become loseable owing to losses at the Heidelberg end and gains at semi-rural Diamond Creek. VexNews notes that the addition of Endeavour Hills to Aston (where Alan Tudge will succeed Chris Pearce as Liberal candidate at the coming election) could make life difficult for them in what had once been a safe seat. Psephos notes that Burke might become available for Rob Mitchell in 2013 should he win McEwen in 2010, and that McEwen rather than Mallee might be an option for Sharman Stone given it will now include Shepparton.
I’m sceptical about Jagajaga “becom[ing] loseable.” The seat’s retaining some 85% of its current voters.
True, but the areas it has lost are all its best Labor booths in the Heidelberg public housing estate. Those booths are all 70%+ Labor.
And the areas it gains are generally Liberal-leaning.
[While on SA, any chance there is some media polling coming up this weekend on SA Marginals?]
This belongs on the other thread, but I’m hopeful of an Advertiser poll tonight – we had one last week. Will fix Boothby link now.
Great article here by Laurie Oaks.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/pm-must-stress-economic-health/story-e6frfhqf-1225899204983
Shame on all u labor supporters who dissed Laurie. The whole its everyones fault but Labors is pretty sad. Oaks is pretty fair and balanced in my opinion even though i don’t always like what he has got to say.
Labor should make an ad full of economists praising the stimulus starting with Stiglitz.
Kevin Rudd leaked the details of the Victorian redistribution to Laurie Oakes?
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Since Danby has such a high vote in Caulfield the ALP should run him there if these new boundaries get up.
As I understand these boundary changes will need to be revised sooner then later. Victoria is due to have an additional seat and as such these proposed boundary changes are transitional.
The inner city boundaries are of interest. It is the first time that Part Melbourne has jumped the Yarra and now includes the Docklands precinct. The exact political demographics of Docklands has never been tested and will come under close scrut6iny by the various players. It could have a profound impact ion the Melbourne Ports electorate come 2013.
The former City of Prahran is now back in Melbourne Ports and parts of Caulfield have been removed. Inner City Melbourne municipal boundaries need to reviewed with the idea of creating a Greater Melbourne back on the agenda. The City of Stonnington could and should be abolished with areas annexed off to the City of Melbourne and Boroondara.
Victoria is a long way off being allocated an additional seat.
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Why do you think that Stonnington should be abolished? It is not like Prahran and Malvern have not had much to do with each other before (the Prahran and Malvern Tramways Trust being the prime example).
The Diamond Creek area of McEwen is not really “semi-rural”. It is, population-wise, an outer-suburban area of Melbourne. Even Hurstbridge, which is to be partly moved into Jaga Jaga is urban, rather than rural, in the sense that most people in it live on suburban-type blocks of land in the town, rather than in the surrounding rural areas. (When I say “suburban-sized”, I am speaking in traditional terms, not the new squashy blocks that the urban planning dictators are forcing on the city.)
Sadly, my local voting booth is to be in Jaga Jaga and I think from the AEC map that I will still be by a few metres in McEwen, so I guess it will be a long trip to vote after this year.
I don’t think people will decide not to vote for Rob Mitchell because the boundaries are going to change in three years. Despite the overall bad polling for Labor – why oh why didn’t they pay attention to the warning signs six months ago? – and the excellent local standing of the Liberal candidate, I expect Rob to won the seat.
Actually Chris, booths close to the divisional boundaries often service more than one electorate.
Thanks, David. I suppose I should have known that.
There has been a significant increase in population in Victoria over the last three years and this is expected to continue. Victoria will need to be allocated an additional lower house seat.
The Local government boundaries forced on Mlebourne by the Kennett Government were lacking common community of interest. Prahran has much more in common with the City of Melbourne then with Malvern. A greater Melbourne option would need to take into consideration a merge of Prahran and Melbourne. If you transfer Prahran (South Yarra Toorak and Windsor) then Stonington is no loneger vailable (It is dopuntful that it is viable under the current arrangements. Boroondara (Hawthorn) and Malvern have much more in common with each other and would make better more natural fit.
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In February 2009, Victoria had 36.6622 quotas and as such would have to gain almost a whole quota to gain another seat.
http://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/Media_releases/2009/02_18.htm
The former Prahran and Malvern council areas do have significant things in common. They had a common boundary that run through the middle of Armadale as well as common transport links and a significant local usage of those links and the facilities in their respective areas. The former Prahran Council Depot has been closed and is being replaced by flats at the moment. Booroondara is a rather oversized municipality . I am a former resident of Stonnington and so I do know something on the subject.
I am a past and current resident of Prahran (South Yarra) and I do not think that Prahran South yarra or Windsor has much in common with Malvern, In terms of planning and development the former City of Prahran has much more in common with the City of Melbourne. South Yarra has long been divided by the the municipal boundaries. Again there is a need for greater municipal regions. The City of Stonnington does not warrant or just for remaining a stand alone municipality. The proposed boundaries of Port Melbourne and Melbourne would be well suited to deliminators an expanded Greater City of Melbourne. In terms of community of Interest the two electorates are well suited.
I would fix them all. Change the Constitution to 5 year terms for both the the House and the Senate and have each house elected simultaneously. A “no-confidence” motion in the government passed by the House would trigger an immediate election. Electronic voting in the Senate would ensure that that house became a true house of review with little room for voting along party lines. Senators would have ‘Yes’, ‘No’ and ‘Abstain’ buttors in front of them and votes would be displayed on video screens instantaneously. The election cycle is too short and open to abuse. The Senate’s role as a real house of review has been ruined by bloody-minded and lazy obstructionists. The public is harrassed for two years out of three by politicians in either honeymoon or re-election mode and by a childishly, simple minded media wanking its way into our brains. Nothing of long-term benefit or of real substance gets done in the middle year anyway for fear of displeasing the voters. Australians constantly live with frantic politicing, with equally superficial media discussion and all at the expense of good policy. Simply put, the Federal Government (and the people) do not have the certainty of a decent length of time for policies to be examined and implimented properly. Isn’t there a better way? Can’t we do this?
Curious that Labor does so poorly in Shepparton.
Melbourne Ports & Wills both weaker for sitting MPs in any preselection battle.
[Change the Constitution to 5 year terms for both the the House and the Senate and have each house elected simultaneously. A “no-confidence” motion in the government passed by the House would trigger an immediate election. Electronic voting in the Senate would ensure that that house became a true house of review with little room for voting along party lines. Senators would have ‘Yes’, ‘No’ and ‘Abstain’ buttors in front of them and votes would be displayed on video screens instantaneously. The election cycle is too short and open to abuse]
I fully agree. the 2 1/2 year election cycle is way to short. Four or five year cycle fixed date is long overdue. Fully agree with simultaneous elections. An odd number of Senators will also better reflect the electorate. BUT we need to fix the method of counting the proportional representation vote. The current system is not accurate or fair.
• Principle 1. If a candidate is excluded from the count, all ballots must be treated as if that candidate had never stood.
• Principle 2. If a candidate has achieved the quota, they retain a fixed proportion of the value of every vote received, and transfers the remainder to the next non-excluded continuing candidate, the value of the retained total equalling the quota.
• Principle 3. There should be no segmentation of the vote and any candidate surplus MUST be distributed equally in proportion to the value of the vote received – all votes to be distributed according to the voters nominated order of preference
A reiterative count – with the ballot reset and redistributed following every exclusion until all vacant positions are filled in a single iteration. A single transaction per candidate.
The last bundle system used in Tasmania and the ACT must be scrapped.