Courtesy of the always reliable GhostWhoVotes, we are informed of a bombshell Nielsen poll which puts the Coalition at an election-winning 52-48 lead, from primary votes of 45 per cent for the Coalition, 36 per cent for Labor and 12 per cent for the Greens. More to follow.
UPDATE: Michelle Grattan reports “the gender gap on voting intention has disappeared, with primary and two-party-preferred votes now little different” – which frankly doesn’t seem likely. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is down five points to 51 per cent and her disapproval up six to 39 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up six points on approval to 49 per cent and disapproval down six to 45 per cent. Gillard’s lead on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-34 to 49-41. The poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1356.
UPDATE 2: Possum has full demographic tables here. Not that it should offer Labor too much comfort, but the size of their slump among women (58-42 to 49-51) and in NSW (59-41 to 42-58) looks overcooked.
We need the press to respect this approach where the current government is concerned:
Oakes and Hartcher should keep the seven story buildings to themselves. We don’t have a right to know 😆
Frank Calabrese: You have a great capacity for making links that enhance PB. For which my respect and thanks.
Against this, you have conducted the silliest and most puerile campaign against the Greens that it has ever been my displeasure to witness. In the process, you have made William’s brilliant website almost unreadable at times.
A year ago, I vowed to make a dollar donation to the Greens every time you slugged them off and I am pleased to say Frank that I am about to fulfil my vow and make a substantial donation to the Greens thanks to you. Thanks Frank for the donation which is well into three figures.
And in case any of the other Green-hating ALP types on PB want to join a lynch mob against me, well let me tell you sad sacks, in the terminology of Frank, that I don’t need my nappy changed. You people in the ALP need all the help you can get, so sure, if you want to spend your energies attacking the Greens, well so be it! And let me assure you all that I hate Liberals with a passion that Paul Keating would be proud of, so don’t, whatever you do, tell me that anything I am doing will help Abbott.
Thanks again Frank for your donation to the Greens. On Monday when I phone the Greens to explain what I am doing, I’m sure there’ll be some amusement. Politics is tough isn’t it? and only for grownups?
Paul Hodgson
David
yes.
The main problem inflating the ALP campaign is CHQ. Too many overpaid hanger ons on the government payroll applying a conservative text book campaign. Julia should have held back until October to hold the election and CHQ managers should have allowed her to project herself more.
JV – when people talk about anything associated with journalism being ‘in the public interest’, it is invariably understood to mean the former, never the latter.
Plus, the more the government can get Abbott to panic, the more chance there is he’ll derail like he did last week.
[Without wanting to re-open last night’s debate, I note that there is a constituency in Tanzania called Mafia
I assume Mafia is a local word for something or a famous surname? ]
No, it’s just a Tanzanian placename. It’s actually an island south of Zanzibar. If you were in Ghana you could be the Honourable Member for Odododiodoo, which is a suburb of Accra.
[Jenauthor it is not the journalists’ role to hold back on stories because of their own political views.]
Didn’t say they should.
But a little balance wouldn’t hurt. They are the ones who ask the questions after all.
It’s like the debate. All the journos said it was boring and that both candidates didn’t talk about a lot of subjects. But THEY asked the questions so they get what they ask for.
B
panancea is evolving maybe
or hibernating
time and the appearance of scales will tell
😉
Any early hints on tomorrow’s Sunday rags?
Any new polls or shock headlines? 😉
Has bluey done a review of the campaign today?
Wakefield
Bluey had to go to dinner so put it in early. It is at 1368.
Psephos@1730
Aha! Is he/she related to Mark Arbib or Karl Bitar in any way? 😆
[And why is that, may I ask. I still give “everyone” the courtesy of reading their comments even though they can be abusive towards me or have differing opinions to me.
Or is it because I tend to be open and honest and tell it how it is as I see it, and not necessarily how some people would like it to be in their idealised world view?]
scorps
i would have been proud to call you a spartan after 2007
now i just wonder at your motivation
🙁
Confessions: Abbott was trying very hard today to hide his cockiness, ill-discipline might cause him to sucumb to “foot in mouth” next week. 😉
Julia should just bang on about the positives all week – economy, health, education, broadband etc, and let the unions run the negative anti-Abbott ads.
And, if Rudd is up to it, start using him more prominently.
1762 – thanks BW
Centre,
[Gus apparently Scorpio reckons that there has been good support for the Libs in the QLD marginals. ]
I think you must have got me mixed up with someone else, because I haven’t made any wide-ranging statement like that from memory.
I did however comment on feedback from the focus group survey and a little from the local media and the BBQ a couple of Saturdays ago where I had a couple of hours discussion with the previous Liberal candidate for here. (although very little on that due to either hostility from some here towards me or lack of interest of others)
j/v: remember that Ch7 defended its disgraceful outing of David Campbell on ‘public interest’ grounds. To be honest I think people simply blur the definition of public interest to suit whatever they want it to be.
Btw – what happened to the poster known as Kirribilli Removals? He was entertaining in 2007 and then lost the plot in 2008 or so.
Boerwar,
Thank you for Blueys report. Concise and enlightening as usuual
Money has gone on Labor at $1.55 on Betfair. Now back in to $1.52. A small adjustment admittedly but in today’s circumstances worth mentioning. Libs at $2.72.
Thanks Scorpio. It might have been Steve?
Wow there are so many comments here it’s pretty hard to keep track.
Especially if you can only type with 2 fingers 😐
Agree they must go in super-hard on Abbott. Beats me why they haven’t already ramped it up. Every time the media tools want to talk about leaks, or being unmarried or earlobes or whatever, bring it back to Abbott. Abbott abbott abbott. I mean, he’s just a writhing pond of vulnerabilities – pick one, pick them all.
[Money has gone on Labor at $1.55 on Betfair. Now back in to $1.52. A small adjustment admittedly but in today’s circumstances worth mentioning. Libs at $2.72.]
Maybe just a blip, possibly just the floor being reached. We shall soon find out.
Hopefully Real Julia will turn this around.
“Public Intereest” can be a dangerous thing — wikileaks being a case in point.
The thing is, all this unsupported nonsense that the PM has supposedly done has served to trivialise the campaign and trivialise the important announcements of the campaign.
This makes me angry because some things are very important — like the NBN — but the press has sought to wash over these things in favour of what is tantamount to ‘gossip’.
Which only goes to show our press corp do NOT have the ‘public interest’ in mind since they are trivialising the very things that ARE of true ‘public interest’.
I agree that a Prime Minister being involved in a negative campaign is a poor idea, for any party. The best thing to do is to squeeze the air out of publicity about her opponent. People crying for more debates are just plain naive. It is hard for the PM to have an outright win and there is lots of risk.
Commentators made a point about Abbott looking prime ministerial for the first time. Now you lot of predominantly vulcanised ALP fawners (bless you all! :)) obviously see him as the spawn of Satan (or, for you athiests, a man but with a really, really bad vibe!). However, he didn’t stuff up. Julia didn’t win. Abbott didn’t lose. More debates is an unjustifiable risk.
I think the most damage has come, to be perfectly honest, from Labor itself. Firstly, it does have a poor record in absolute terms, even for a first term government. Secondly, it was too soon after the coup. Kevin is still alive and kicking. The ‘honeymoon’ argument sounds more like a party in a tailspin and was always a gamble. Finally, to win the suburban fringe, she is being ‘Righter’ than Abbott and alienating the left and some of the loyal ALP. They will still vote/bleed that way but they will not be saving their T-shirts when the corflutes come down!
Tony might do a Don Quixote and sabotage his own campaign but I think it is more a case of the ALP snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Centre
you crossed the yakuza,chechens and triads all at once?
[Every time the media tools want to talk about leaks, or being unmarried or earlobes or whatever, bring it back to Abbott.]
Abbott’s ears – there should be lots to say about them.
Centre,
[I was refering to the betting Psephos.
Scorpio if you are there, have the Libs had more betting support would you say than the ALP in QLD marginals? ]
Boy, you sure dropped me in it there with the Liberal support bit! 😉
I have only been following Sportingbet as it is the one that I bet with.
There has been virtually “no” movement in their prices in the ones I am following so apparently punters are holding off for more local feel and probably more going off the polls.
Once a decent Qld marginal seat poll is out, I expect some movement then. Currently I think I have done my dough on Flynn & Dawson but will be happy to be proven wrong. 😉
[jaundiced view
Posted Saturday, July 31, 2010 at 10:37 pm | Permalink
Psephos@1730
Without wanting to re-open last night’s debate, I note that there is a constituency in Tanzania called Mafia. Its MP is Abdulkarim Esmail Hassan Shah.
Aha! Is he/she related to Mark Arbib or Karl Bitar in any way? 😆 ]
About as closely as you’re related to Enoch Powell. lol.
[Abbott was trying very hard today to hide his cockiness, ill-discipline might cause him to sucumb to “foot in mouth” next week.]
I’ve noticed in the last day or two he seems to be wearing shirts that emphasise his physique. Either that or he’s seriously working out. I think it just adds to the appearance of aggression, especially when you see him walking. He struts. I was relieved when the news report flashed back to a normal, more human-looking Gillard!
confessions@1768
I have no argument with that. I agree that the press invades privacy far too much. But these leaks are not in that category. There is no sleight of hand about ‘public interest’ that outweighs privacy or anything like that. It is simply political news. Those who aren’t interested can ignore it, but there is no legal or moral impediment to publishing the leaks. There is no decision to be made about that on this issue.
It has to be news, if not for the content of the leaks alone, but the fact that a Labor insider appears to be trying to damage the new PM.
My point about it all is simply that it is juvenile and irrational to blame the journalists to whom the information was leaked, as if the journalists desires to do damage. It’s their job to report such intelligence.
Put today’s Nielsen poll into Antony Green’s calculator and you come up with:
COALITION 86 SEATS
ALP 61 SEATS
OTHERS 3 SEATS.
I guess we’ll be again treated to the sight of Tone in his budgie smugglers.
I pretty much agree with what Mick has posted except I’m not so critical about the government’s performance in its first terms (in light of all circumstances). If they manage to get a second term, however, I expect a lot more.
Gus
[you crossed the yakuza,chechens and triads all at once?]
Sounds like what the wallabies need for a winning formula in Christchurch next week…
[About as closely as you’re related to Enoch Powell. lol.]
Ouch.
Journalists like Oakes only believe in themselves and their ability to sell.
They couldn’t give a flying fig about the public interest.
pseph
i suggest a close review of last nights posts
most enlightening
Lao
10 thorns will do me
oh and one joe R for good measure
[I’ve noticed in the last day or two he seems to be wearing shirts that emphasise his physique.]
Definitely – much tighter “european” cut shirts. He is very fit. His lunches with the shadow treasurer must be a hoot
Sunday mail has bombshell in sturt and tight boothby poll
Sunday mail has bombshell in sturt and tight boothby poll
Ummm, JV, are you disputing that there is a recognised ‘public interest’ in cabinet confidentiality as a concept? The ability of the cabinet to have a frank and free discussion about important decisions without fear of their remarks being put on public display? If you do accept this then surely it also comes down to a judgment that the public interest in publishing outweighs the public interest in maintaining cabinet confidentiality – remarkably similar to a public interest in personal privacy.
It being a judgment call means that unless egregiously abused it comes down to whether Oakes thought it worthwhile or not – he obviously did and will not suffer any negative consequences as a result. That doesn’t mean that it was actually in the public interest to publish. I don’t think it was as I outlined earlier. I argue primarily with your statements that it is a clear cut-and-dried-case that the matter should have been published and we are just being ‘juvenile and irrational’.
@evan14/1783,
I can’t see a 20 seat lead to the Coalition.
We had a number of polls this year that were like this one.
Gusface,
[now i just wonder at your motivation]
There’s not a lot of it left in me at the moment. Most of it was kicked out of me by some pretty hostile treatment by a number of posters here that have gone awfully quiet for a while now.
Maybe it is because much of what I said to attract the “personal” criticism has been shown to have legs and was not simply a lot of hot air.
j/v: I have no problem with Oakes or whoever reporting the leaks – they most certainly are public interest matters, esp when we are in an election campaign. I was merely taking issue with the 2nd definition you gave on public interest – the David Campbell story being a case in point. Sometimes news that is interesting to the general public is most certainly *not* in the public interest in my view.
[Sunday mail has bombshell in sturt]
So?? What is it?
evan
Yeah, that won’t tell you a lot. The coalition won’t go anyway near that. My ‘middle of the road analysis’ is 76 Coalition, 3 independent, 1 Green, 70 ALP. Most likely is still an ALP hold with perhaps a 6 seat margin.
ALP swings of 5% won’t even change the landscape by a seat for the ALP in SA, TAS and the ACT. They won’t do much for the Coalition either.
However, 3.4% in QLD and 1.5% in NSW, with the same in WA and 1% in VIC will lose the ALP their government.
I think any negative campaign on TV will do poorly for Labor. I have been involved with members of Focus groups in SEQ for this campaign and they are very sensitive to it at the moment. The union ads, I can tell you for sure, are not helping the ALP.
Good to know James Bodentown. Any extra seats Labor can win will be very welcome.