Morgan phone poll: Gillard approval slump

Roy Morgan has published leadership ratings from a phone survey of 680 respondents conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and it shows Julia Gillard taking a solid hit. Gillard’s approval is down 12 points to 46 per cent and her disapproval up 10 to 37 per cent, while Tony Abbott is now equal on approval with Gillard, having risen four points to 46 per cent, and down eight on disapproval to 40 per cent. Abbott has also narrowed his preferred prime minister deficit from 58-29 to 48-33. The shifts are compared with last week’s phone poll, which showed what seemed an excessive 55.5-44.5 two-party Labor lead. While the consistency in shifts towards Abbott and away from Gillard seems consistent with the idea that sampling issues at least partly explain the size of the change, it should be noted that Monday’s Newspoll also showed significant falls in Gillard’s personal ratings. There has been chatter about a looming 50-50 two-party result from Morgan, which would seem consistent with the figures provided.

My federal election guide will be unveiled in all its glory today, work on which has prevented me from providing more than sporadic coverage of late. Hopefully that will now improve.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

842 comments on “Morgan phone poll: Gillard approval slump”

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  1. I doubt that the majority of Australians are influenced by church leaders.
    In case people haven’t noticed, respect for them has dived in recent times. Mainly due to the unspeakable crimes against children committed and not dealt with appropriately by them over the years.

    Church leaders are not trusted as they once were, and rightly so.

  2. Andrew

    I guess that Gillards atheism and hand wringing from people like that archbishop will be balanced by her slightly softer refugee stand and the religion thing will cancel out unless Pell or someone really arcs up.

  3. [and value their opinions highly. I don’t know if the same is true in Oz though. I suspect it is less but is still important.]

    that is exactly what i am saying we catholics take no notice and its like a rebellion
    they say do it we say will not that is if you are under 60
    we had enough of being told how to think etc when we where are school
    cont get me wrong i still love and respect the nuns

  4. lefty e.

    Good point. That is what I was saying yesterday. Labor has passed the PPL and increased pensions. What have the Liberals done in this regard during their 11 year reign. Sweet fa. That should be the issue, not policy discussions in cabinet.

  5. Andrew

    [never underestimate the power of the woman’s weekly].

    I don’t underestimate, but I do note that Julia looks more like the Australian actress Rachel Griffiths in those shots than Julia Gillard

  6. BK@30

    My blood is boiling.

    I wonder when Abott’s own personal moral director, The Very Right Be-cassocked Pell of Sydney will start his ritual old testament stoning of that heretic Gillard.

  7. I’ve got a couple of queries:

    What’s with the sample size? There’s not a lot we can confidently surmise from 680 people.

    Why’s he doing the dance of the seven veils with us? Why drip feed the approval ratings and sit on the 2PP figures? It’s obvious he has them.

  8. my say.

    The Catholic church does not have the same influence over its flock as they once had.
    The church community does some wonderful things to assist people in dire need, and they do fight for social justice including helping refugees, but I doubt they can influence people’s vote.

  9. [Why’s he doing the dance of the seven veils with us? Why drip feed the approval ratings and sit on the 2PP figures? It’s obvious he has them.]

    Relevance Deprivation Syndrome.

    Morgan polls have been largely ignored, but 7 are now paying for exclusive rights to release them.

  10. Hi victoria how are you feeling about things now.

    my cousin in qld says she feels the revolt a little but says she cannot see it as not holding steady i so suppose she means the seats we have.
    only grass rootes consideration i suppose but it all helps.

  11. wish the Alp would release times for pressers do they, so we can all watch
    abc 24 , the couple i have seen on there are very good, for us we see, we hear, we
    ignore, the press and the abc commentator because we then turn OFF

  12. Gillard’s atheism is the one of the few remaining areas of difference from the Libs.
    (Although there are plenty of zealots behind her)

    Maybe she will ‘lurch to the right’ on that as well – and have a televised public conversion. Arbib and his band plus S. Conroy are probably urging her to do so as early as next Sunday. What a spectacular campaign event that would be. 😆

  13. my say.

    Seeing Julia at her press conference yesterday responding to the leaks, gave me confidence that Labor can fight and win.

    My main concerns are the damage being caused by the so called “leaks”. What will be the next leak?, and how the media will continue to push their agenda.

    That is the unknown part of this equation. I hope that Labor are sorting this problem out asap.

  14. Morning all – bad week for labor so far, with “leakgate” being quite a pain in the posterior. I tend to agree with the analysis of Toorak that this is unlikely to be some sort of inner sanctum leak – it just doesn’t sit right with me. Could there be a Godwin Grech like figure in the background?

    From an SA perspective, this election campaign is quite dull with very little chance of any seat change. I maintain my previous belief that Boothby is more likely to shift to labor than Sturt-although I do wish my UniSA colleague Rick Sarre well in Sturt! The liberals have next to no chance of taking any seat from labor in SA.

  15. AH same age group 62 me, catholics have changed a lot bk go to the churches they are empty all there are is a sprinkling of our age group and few younger ones
    you could count on one hand
    and mostly 70 plus and i would say on a good Sunday morning 150 people mostly over 65/70 in fact i can see the day when the only church that will have attendance will be the cathedrals back to sq one. a lot of smaller suburban churches have closed in the c and e and sold i think the catholics just dont know how to quite tell the older people they will have to do the same eventually
    most of us now realise that going to church does not make you a christian person
    and i think if you beleive in Jesus he would say thats correct
    i now think keep holy the sabbath day simply means have a rest but honestly these day no one can life has changed so much
    if Jesus was about to day i think he would be more like a union advocate amongst us us helping us with our daily life.

    and may be a big proportion of the church goes would be liberal any way.

  16. Dio

    Looking at the approval ratings, those of us who warned of the foolishness of the way the rudd sacking was done appear to be right. No need for others to admit same.

    Lets just hope Labor’s self-inflicted wounds aren’t sufficient to get Abbott over the line. If past form is anything to go by he will cut health as soon as he is in office.

    At this point I find Labor’s cave in to BHPB, Rio and the CFMEU over climate change action infuriating. Ever since that cop-out what should have beena lay down mizzaire has become a closer contest than it deserved to be.

    I always saw Abbott as the damage control candidate designed to hang onto the conservative base and minimise Liberal losses. Given that despite Gillard’s drop she is still preferred as PM by 15 points shows how unpopular Abbott is.

  17. [Looking at the approval ratings, those of us who warned of the foolishness of the way the rudd sacking was done appear to be right. No need for others to admit same.]

    look at it another way what if he was still there.

  18. Front page of the Adelaide Advertiser today is:


    So it looks like Gillard’s visit yesterday didn’t exactly do her wonders 😉

  19. The release of part of the Morgan polling result is not surprising, or unusual. 680 respondents on Tuesday and Wednesday is a relatively small sample and a fairly short field timeframe, so this poll will no doubt show some noise effects from the media coverage on those days (which was all concentrating on the alleged ‘bombshell’ dropped by Oakes and Hartcher) greater than would be the case with a larger sample done over a 3 or 4 day period. If it was commissioned by Channel 7, then I would expect it to get some coverage tonight on their news reports. Morgan will no doubt also publish their F2F polling from last weekend, probably tomorrow in the normal way, along with the full results from the telephone poll.

    I don’t subscribe to any of these polling company conspiracy theories about doctoring results, or even attempting to manipulate field dates for maximum anti-ALP effect. I do, however see deliberate and systemic bias in the media’s treatment of the results, and how portions of the data are selectively used to support an anti-ALP agenda run primarily by the Murdoch media, faintly echoed by the Fairfax papers, and positively wolfed down and vomited straight back up by a supine and incompetent ABC.

    Generally, the Morgan F2F poll overstates the ALP TPP by a point or 2, compared to other pollsters, so we’ll see where it sits in the mix when the results are published. As for the telephone poll, who knows what it will say, but I’d guess 53% to 47%, maybe 52% to 48% TPP to the ALP, which will be enough for Gary Morgan to fly into print screeching about an Abbott ‘surge,’ or some such hyperbolic overstatement.

  20. Also, having had the chance to watch last night’s Gruen Nation this morning and seeing the Greens campaign ad can I just say they should sack the uni students running their campaign and appoint some professionals? And no jv, that does not mean Mark Arbib 😉

  21. Thanks big ship we need your vitaman pill every day. so uplifting
    and common sence.

    it is the rating s u know, thats why i gave up on these morning show some time ago

    Does any one know their ratings

  22. A good piece in today’s SMH about Kingston – looks like the polling is correct, Amanda Risworth is in no danger of losing, considering that the Liberal candidate was preselected at the last minute & he still hasn’t got his campaign office up and running. 🙂
    Labor should have won Boothby in 2007, but with a better candidate this time – they’ve got a chance.

  23. Punters are still backing Labor, 85% to 15%. All the money is still going to Labor to win, so I think supporters may be only seeing the trees for the forest.

    Although the leaker has the ability to disclose cabinet meetings in which ministers can make honest observations, so anymore may be something she can’t pull back from.

    Guess I just join the tree watchers too.

  24. my say
    [look at it another way what if he was still there.]
    The polls were turning around when Rudd was sacked, as one of Poss’s posts proved. I respect your views on many things my say, but sacking Rudd in that manner was damaging to Labor in the eyes of swinging voters. Those who won’t see it that way will always vote Labor anyway, so that makes no difference. The plotters will never admit their guilt, but that will be cold comfort if they wind up in opposition. Labor was fond of the “disunity is death” slogan when it applied to Liberals, but it applies to all.

    The only reason Rudd was even in trouble was not because of an autocratic style, but because he took the advice of some of the plotters over the climate change cave-in, and compromised himself. If Rudd had ignored the CC cave-ins, he’d still be PM, and Labor would be headed for an increased majority.

  25. The local issues are such a beat up really

    its the federal issues health schools pensions etc taxes child care

    what do the states want roads and bridges ect that is what the gst is for
    if they spent that way that is.

    I wonder do the state hold out for money at election time,

  26. Today’s West Australian cites internal ALP polling which they say shows Green preferences not flowing to the ALP at the same rate as the 2007 election due to dissatisfaction with the mining tax deal. Supposedly the polling shows Greens preferences flowing 65-35 (ALP/Liberal) compared to 76-24 at the 2007 election.

    It states Labor polling has them behind in Canning and Stirling 53/47 and tied in Hasluck and Swan.

  27. ltep@89

    that does not mean Mark Arbib

    But Arbib & Compamy Pty Ltd, Strategists To The Bereft, could surely assist the Greens to dump their policies and become more attractive to voters with no idea and ‘New Idea’. 😆

  28. Socrates: Rudd deserves a huge apology from the media and some of his Labor colleagues, because those of us with half a brain know that he isn’t a serial leaker!
    I think it’s madness that the guy is being effectively trapped in Griffith, when he could be of use to Labor candidates in more marginal seats – Chris Trevor for one would love to have Rudd up in Flynn with him.
    Sadly it wouldn’t shock me if Rudd isn’t invited to the campaign launch.

  29. [Sadly it wouldn’t shock me if Rudd isn’t invited to the campaign launch.]

    If he was invited he probably wouldn’t show up.

  30. Socrates i repect your view and i am sure you know more than i. As you are very educated and work in this field of polling etc and the name you chose tells me that
    (not being rude sincere)

    re the C c but i also saw polls well where they real that people where sick of hearing about cc can you remember that.

    So who knows we just have to accept it be positive and get on with life.

  31. What the??????

    [due to dissatisfaction with the mining tax deal.

    Supposedly the polling shows Greens preferences flowing 65-35 (ALP/Liberal) compared to 76-24 at the 2007 election.]
    Under the Rabbott there will be ‘ NO’ mining tax. Is this for real???

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