Roy Morgan has published leadership ratings from a phone survey of 680 respondents conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and it shows Julia Gillard taking a solid hit. Gillard’s approval is down 12 points to 46 per cent and her disapproval up 10 to 37 per cent, while Tony Abbott is now equal on approval with Gillard, having risen four points to 46 per cent, and down eight on disapproval to 40 per cent. Abbott has also narrowed his preferred prime minister deficit from 58-29 to 48-33. The shifts are compared with last week’s phone poll, which showed what seemed an excessive 55.5-44.5 two-party Labor lead. While the consistency in shifts towards Abbott and away from Gillard seems consistent with the idea that sampling issues at least partly explain the size of the change, it should be noted that Monday’s Newspoll also showed significant falls in Gillard’s personal ratings. There has been chatter about a looming 50-50 two-party result from Morgan, which would seem consistent with the figures provided.
My federal election guide will be unveiled in all its glory today, work on which has prevented me from providing more than sporadic coverage of late. Hopefully that will now improve.
[Re: the Brown thing. He screwed up, plain and simple. He had a mike on and called a voter a condescending name. He may have been right, but he did a stupid thing and the press were right to highlight it.
There is plenty of bias in the UK’s media, but in that case it was what any media outlet would’ve done. No conspiracy there.]
Or if it wasn’t a media outlet, it would’ve been a radio enthusiast picking up the signal on a scanner and recording it – shades of Jeff Kennett/Andrew Peacock mobile call.
I told you guys the betting odds would narrow. The coalition betters (those who believe in the coalition, but won’t bet if they don’t see any chance of their money coming back) were spooked by a really badly run first week by the coalition, but have gotten their confidence back…
Dagget, from memory it was not much above $4. Perhaps $4.10 with one agency.
Cud Chewer:
That’s the point, isn’t it? That sort of stuff only speaks to those who already agree with that sort of stuff. Good for getting the base to nod their heads. That’s all, though.
Really, Frank, all your taste’s in your arse.
That’s an AWFUL ad…. regulation ominous music, standard grainy B&W photo, cheap graphics….
If this is the standard, then we’re headed for a dreadfully uninspiring (at least televisually) campaign.
[Bob Ellis was embarrassing the Labor campaign in the SA state election and was told to go home, which he did.]
Yeah, we prefer the Ellis we’ve already got 🙂
[There is plenty of bias in the UK’s media]
There is indeed, but at least they retain sufficient diversity that the various outlets are seldom in the lockstep that we see here.
According to Sportingbet, the day the election was called it was $1.28 Labor and $3.50 the Coalition.
The OO are the target 🙂
[The Drum & Unleashed abcthedrum
A newspaper that uses more space to campaign than it does to report becomes a propaganda sheet, writes Jonathan Holmes http://bit.ly/d4m8Mu 4 minutes ago via bitly ]
BB @705, problem is the so called experts still seem to think those sorts of ads work. Personally I think people have learned to go for a pee whenever they seen a grainy black and white photo on their tv.
There’s lots and lots and lots of things the Liberals can be attacked on so why not a more calm-collected presentation with even a bit of humour.
[Personally I drop ‘moving forward’ into as many discussions with friends and colleagues as possible. This subliminal tactic will see Labor home in Canberra.]
Unfortunately or fortunately, I use that phrase (or variants thereof) a lot in my every day lingo anyway…
One reason they hate it so much is it is bloody effective. It’s a simple phrase that succinctly defines what you desire in a government (ie. one that moves the country forward)
[Really, Frank, all your taste’s in your arse.
That’s an AWFUL ad…. regulation ominous music, standard grainy B&W photo, cheap graphics….
If this is the standard, then we’re headed for a dreadfully uninspiring (at least televisually) campaign.]
You are a bitter and twisted cocky.
It is effective and to the point.
Go vote Liberal if you’re really pissed off.
After all, if you simply gather together footage of Tony himself, including all the backflips, it really does make good TV and in itself has (rather black) humour.
[Really, Frank, all your taste’s in your arse.
That’s an AWFUL ad…. regulation ominous music, standard grainy B&W photo, cheap graphics….]
BB the “where do you get it” ads were terrible, but they worked. These ads are standard attack fare, and they work.
They are meant to be cheap and nasty becuase the target is supposed to be cheap and nasty.
I must have made over 10,000 retail ads in my time in TV. The arty farty ones rarely sell anything.
[That’s an AWFUL ad…. regulation ominous music, standard grainy B&W photo, cheap graphics….
If this is the standard, then we’re headed for a dreadfully uninspiring (at least televisually) campaign.]
It’s a very effective and well targetted ad, and it’s also true, unlike the Liberal “secret Green deal” ad. We’re not trying to win awards here, we’re trying to win an election.
[Underestimate Robb at your peril. He is a bad mutherf….]
Shut yo’ mouth!
{But I’m talkin’ ’bout Robb]
Then we can dig it.
Bob has been a loyal labor man for a long time, but you are right, he is, on too many occasions, embarrassing. Another case of his best years being behind him.
But he is not a RAT.
I don’t know how the likes of latham looks himself in the mirror ? As they say *Only a man of straw fouls the nest*
[It’s a very effective and well targetted ad, and it’s also true, unlike the Liberal “secret Green deal” ad.]
It’s pretty sad that the Liberals biggest scare campaign is something that they have to make up out of thin air. The Coalition are quite honest in the fact that they’ll cut services. This one is short and to the point but I wonder whether there might be room to have a series of short ads going over a range of cuts the Opposition are making and the effects they’ll have.
I think its a pretty good ALP ad – short and sharp.
But Im waiting for the biggie on the GFC save. I assume/ trust thats in the pipeline.
gough1
Posted Thursday, July 29, 2010 at 4:50 pm | Permalink
“I’ll be voting green and preferencing labor”
Which is what i thought Gough1 , thought you a reasonable based progressive so dont knock back a pat , now for a dunk BTW there is ONLY one Gough1 (sayer of Kerrs Kerr)
[In a letter sent to Mr Abbott on Wednesday, Mr Johnson also revealed details about a conversation he had with the opposition leader the day after he was expelled.
“You will also recollect that we were in violent agreement that, not withstanding the LNP bastards’ (to use your words) political blockage, winning Queensland would be absolutely critical to your prospects of becoming prime minister.”]
Ronster
I’m voting ASP along with Finns.
[“I have been asking the LNP now for two weeks to confirm that it will in fact put me second on the ballot paper ahead of the ALP and the Greens.”]
The LNP keeps giving ltep. 🙂
[Go vote Liberal if you’re really pissed off.]
Frank, Why do you resort to that sort of BS simply because Bushfire sees it differently to you and a few others here? Bushfire would be just as passionate as any Labor leaning person here but he keeps a critical eye on his own side of politics as well as on his opponents and calls it as he sees it. I reckon that’s refreshingly honest.
Diogenes
Posted Thursday, July 29, 2010 at 5:15 pm | Permalink
“Ronster
I’m voting ASP along with Finns.”
yo voting just like strong Green Party minded Mrs Diog tells yu to , stop fluff floss
Abbott’s gang crud has now morphed into “organised crime” on Sky. Hey I wonder if there are any Federal Law guys already doing that gig?
At least Diog is voting for someone at this election. 😆
OH for God’s sake all of you!
If I’ve seen that ad once, I’ve seen it a thousand times since Whitlam was sacked. Political ads don’t have to be cutesy and arty, but surely the dreary, growling music and the unflattering B&W photo with he slow dolly-in have had their day? Like about two decades ago?
It’s so unoriginal – and, therefore turn-offable – it makes you wonder whether a couple of junior staffers didn’t put it together in the parliamentary sandpit.
Ru. I’ve made a few commercials in my day to0 (although nowhere near the thousands you’ve made) – voiced them over, edited them, even directed a couple – and this is real stack-the-dishwasher-during-the-ad-break material. Feed the dogs. Hit that cockroach under the coffee table with a slipper. Put out the garbage. Check your in-box. Catch the huntsman on the ceiling. Go for a pee. ANYTHING but watch this unoriginal, derivative, boring rubbish. I’ve seen better ads (truly) for toilet paper. At least the dunny men try hard. This Labor ad’s like Politics TV 101.
You don’t have to be a Liberal sympathiser to see that this campaign is lacking fire and gusto. The “new” Labor government is looking tired, old and in disarray. They’re not making people WANT to vote for them. And neither are their clone-like ads.
Make ’em laugh. Make ’em cry. There’s the ticket, not this “The End Is Nigh” crap with no smiles, no fun, and a boring message.
And then it ends with someone apparently near to having their life-support switched off? That‘ll have the punters rolling in the aisles! Fair dinkum!
Diogs,
Voting for the Party whose name matches name your long term personal aspirations?
[Frank, Why do you resort to that sort of BS simply because Bushfire sees it differently to you and a few others here? Bushfire would be just as passionate as any Labor leaning person here but he keeps a critical eye on his own side of politics as well as on his opponents and calls it as he sees it. I reckon that’s refreshingly honest.]
That’s a bit rich coming from you Tom. In my short time on this site I’ve noticed you slagging-off quite a bit.
Not at my own side. Still smarting from yesterday?
Dio
[I’m voting ASP along with Finns.]
Please translate for the niaive but intrigued.
Socrates, ASP = Australian Sex Party
[Voting for the Party whose name matches name your long term personal aspirations?]
He aspires to have a sex party? 🙂
How’s the “benevolent dictator” thesis coming along?
Personally, I’m voting for ABA – Anyone But Abbott. Labor won’t come first though without an adequate climate policy. Of course, if Labor’s right wingers do manage to lose this thing, don’t blame me.
[Socrates, ASP = Australian Sex Party
Voting for the Party whose name matches name your long term personal aspirations?]
Aren’t you getting him mixed up with Dionysius? 🙂
BB
Why do Lib and Labor attack ads seem the same? Becuase Ad agencies test them. They work.
I remember working at AAV in Sth Melbourne where one edit suite was doing Labor ads, the other Lib ads. Fun days. 🙂
[Abbott’s gang crud has now morphed into “organised crime” on Sky. Hey I wonder if there are any Federal Law guys already doing that gig?]
Yes, every gang of teenagers in a shopping mall is part of organised crime…
I hope someone still asks him where the AFP are taking the officers from? Are they reducing the anti-terrorism task-force, or reducing the anti-people smugglers unit?
After everything that’s happened, I can’t believe the Laborites on here are blaming the media rather than Labor repeatedly shooting itself in the foot.
If Labor loses this election, it will be because LABOR LOST IT.
Some of us prefer Labor over the Liberals (like me), some are just rabid Labor foaming dogs on their last legs…
Tom Hawkins
Posted Thursday, July 29, 2010 at 4:44 pm | Permalink
there is only one swing voter i seen here
“Ron, I am intrigued. I wonder who that might be. I pretty well agree with you assessment of the others.”
Tom , I cann’t be rude and ignore your post , but I dont wish to be norty
Guy is Uni qual and brilliant with econamics , good on public polisy but not purity pure on it fully , but cluelessless on politcs which is required in any Govt decision (as a re-requisites always involving considering majority of oz’s views who think moderate , apathetic politcs and think big change should be gradual) , …so we do argue over time
Everyone should get on this site & lodge your support for Jonathan Holmes sentiments which reflect everything we have been saying on this blog.
[It seems to me that when a media company as dominant as News Ltd permits the news values of its national broadsheet to become overwhelmed by a partisan political agenda, that that amounts to an abuse of power.]
http://bit.ly/d4m8Mu
Bushfire Bill, these techniques are used because they work. It doesn’t matter whether you or I find these ads crass, or unoriginal, or boring, or an insult to our intelligence. They’re not aimed at us. All these ads (on both sides) have been thoroughly tested on the much-despised focus groups of swinging voters. They work. They hit home. They cut through. They influence how people think about issues, about parties, about leaders. They influence how people vote. You can bet that the “pull the plug” image is being used over and over because it’s been tested and found to hit home, to crystallise a real fear about what Abbott will do. If you don’t like the way election campaigns are run these days, spend the next three weeks bushwalking.
Ron – am also curious on who u think is the genuine swinging voter here?! Must be Truthy, whom we all know voted for Rudd in 2007…
My own recent voting history suggests not… last voted conservative in Oz in 1990 and US (presidential) in 1988 – but would like to think that’s been on substance!
If Turnbull were leading the Libs and opus dei segment exorcised (with associated moderate social policy improvement) then I would strongly lean towards voting for them this time. I’m with Patrick Bateman’s sentiments in #293 above – and have moaned to similar effect along with Bushfire Bill in previous threads. This ALP govt has morphed into a ‘whatever it takes’ mode which engenders no enthusiasm/belief whatever – and Pseph’s references to “winning dumb” and “trying to win an election here”, if he represents mainstream ALP thinking, just underlines how they seemingly stand for not a helluva lot clear right now.
Mind you, to vote for someone else then that party also has to stand for something you can believe in. Abbott-led Libs certainly don’t, and even the Turnbull scenario is a mega leap of faith (ie unproven entirely). In the absence of it from either, then a vote should go with perceived competence. Which means ALP gets it, though with nose held. Similar scenario beckoning in 2012 in the US – unless (by some miracle) the Repubs can nominate a credible sensible moderate…
hughb, my apologies, it was 4 hours..
It was a mistake on my part, not deliberate to distort numbers. I have enough respect for people on this site to try a pull one over them.
Nevertheless, I shiver when I think what the poor soul went through in the last few minutes of his life.
GG
It’s close but no cigar.
Ron
Mrs D won’t be voting Greens or ASP. She likes Gillard. Although she’s a bit disillusioned at the moment.
ru
My gal is in the Upper House. I still haven’t admitted to my boss that I helped get the DFD candidate up ahead of him in SaveTheRAH. 😉
[Ron – am also curious on who u think is the genuine swinging voter here?! Must be Truthy, whom we all know voted for Rudd in 2007…]
Expat, I love it!
I said this before the election and will say it again Julia is no leader, and replacing Rudd has and is backfiring big time. The morgan poll is genuinely generous to Labor and this result is not a good sign. The leaks have put the perception out their that Julia is shifty and just another pollie, to date the Labor campaign has not provided any significant policies to grab the electorate’ imagination. I still expect Labor to win, but as the campaign continues Labor seems to be going deeper into the mire… Labor supporters better hope they win because after the election they will be like the party of the 1950′ completely torn apart with no leaders to lead them. The effective opposition may well be the Greens.
[there is only one swing voter i seen here]
I’ve seen a few of them, they swing behind the Tories every chance they get.
Diogs,
Oh, so you pine for a Clinton/Lewinsky Party in politics?
Any NSWelshpeople here prepared to go on record to say that they will definitely be voting Coalition at the next state election? An absence of that is as good an indicator of ‘rusted-on’-ness that could possibly exist? (Mark me down as a yes on this)