Roy Morgan has published leadership ratings from a phone survey of 680 respondents conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and it shows Julia Gillard taking a solid hit. Gillard’s approval is down 12 points to 46 per cent and her disapproval up 10 to 37 per cent, while Tony Abbott is now equal on approval with Gillard, having risen four points to 46 per cent, and down eight on disapproval to 40 per cent. Abbott has also narrowed his preferred prime minister deficit from 58-29 to 48-33. The shifts are compared with last week’s phone poll, which showed what seemed an excessive 55.5-44.5 two-party Labor lead. While the consistency in shifts towards Abbott and away from Gillard seems consistent with the idea that sampling issues at least partly explain the size of the change, it should be noted that Monday’s Newspoll also showed significant falls in Gillard’s personal ratings. There has been chatter about a looming 50-50 two-party result from Morgan, which would seem consistent with the figures provided.
My federal election guide will be unveiled in all its glory today, work on which has prevented me from providing more than sporadic coverage of late. Hopefully that will now improve.
[And the temperature within the van was 50 degrees plus]
The guards in the air conditioned front cabin would have spent some time chatting during that long drive. The prisoner in the back must have come up in the conversation at some stage. I wonder what they said to each other. They must have stopped for a pee break themselves at some stage. I wonder if they even bothered to bang on the side of the van and ask “Are you OK in there?” Probably not. They may as well have been transporting a bag of wheat for all the concern they showed.
hughb
I dont know about that, it made me a lot more interested in the election for a start, as long as they keep it balanced it should be good for both.
[645 Aguirre
Posted Thursday, July 29, 2010 at 4:24 pm | Permalink
Good lord. I stepped in the door, turned on the tv, and there was Abbott talking about gangs and knives’]
you would find abc 24/7 a bit better well at the moment any way i have been streaming it on my computer also. Bill shorten was great
Aguirre.
I stopped watching Agenda on Monday. Could not handle it anymore. I rely on others on this site to report. I cope better that way.
And now Robb is conflating expense with assets (NBN)
I’d only show them in WA and QLD and parts of NSW.
Speaking of Rann, if we have a South Australian around, did that whole affair/non-affair thing die away as soon as the election was held?
[he is a great speaker and does the government and the cause of disability awareness a great service.]
yes so people should get off his case we admire him very much here he spent hours in the rain and cold out side the mine some one suggested it was just to get in to parliment i can tell you the people of beaconsfield did not think so.
Hamish
It’s essentially dead and buried. Cremated indeed.
[There is a rat in the Labor ranks, and quite rightly frustration is building.]
Labor want the focus on Abbott as they try to paint him as risky and unstable, except that message won’t wash while the media spotlight is on the government and its leading cabinet. Meanwhile Abbott’s nonsensical policy announcements simply fly by with little to no scrutiny whatsoever. Never mind sacking the leaker, how about throttling them?
[Speaking of Rann, if we have a South Australian around, did that whole affair/non-affair thing die away as soon as the election was held?]
Yep.
The minute the election was over she and her Liberal husband disappeared from the limelight. Only post-election mention of that bunch was a quick footnote of how the assault (or whatever aggressive summary offence it was) trial of their son turned out (the one he blamed Rann for): I think he was convicted and forced to do community service or something.
confessions. apparently Abbott has now said there will be further spending cuts. obviously, their figures don’t balance at the moment. But he is also saying that Labor is only spending without making any cuts, and that Labor are incompetent.
That sort of crap never works. Newspaper editors often forget that they can’t set the agenda. If they don’t at least partway reflect the views of their community, people just tend to zone them out. Anyone already tending towards Labor is going to ask the question, “Why don’t they like her?” And they’ll often come up with an answer that will do the newspaper no credit.
People are good at spotting BS.
leading = leaking
Ohh The Cheeky Greens have retooled that Lib Ad.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNG4kMqaAUs
[People are good at spotting BS.]
Very true. That is why Abbott is not 10 points ahead.
[They must have stopped for a pee break themselves at some stage.]
Four hour journey (not 10 as stated by Adam above), so not necessarily.
I agree that the case is utterly shameful, but let’s not exaggerate for the sake of emphasis. It’s horrifying enough as it is.
Incidentally, something that doesn’t get publicised much is the fact that the WA prison van fleet would have been upgraded sooner had it not been for a number of factors. One was the reluctance of our wonderful erstwhile private contractors to spend the money necessary for upgraded vans. Another was the Greens style attitude of the Office of the Inspector of Prisons who wanted the replacement vans to be perfect rather than much better. The engineering challenges this posed made the development of new vans an almost impossible task.
[Aguirre
People are good at spotting BS.]
I wish that it were so. Spotting insincerity is easy – spotting BS regarding party policy is beyond the skill of average punters.
[ LetUsRejoice
AEC : 2010 federal election close of rolls figures http://bit.ly/cZGAcW #ausvotes 7 minutes ago via Seesmic ]
[That sort of crap never works. Newspaper editors often forget that they can’t set the agenda. If they don’t at least partway reflect the views of their community, people just tend to zone them out.]
Aguirre,
I reckon the Telegraph did their grubby cause no favours with the “Julia with wrinkles” front-page today.
The Greens will do very well the day they learn how to make an ad that isn’t a condescending piece of rubbish
speaking of the Murdoch papers, remember recent elections in the UK, and the PM Brown getting caught saying Bigot about a voter?
It was then transmitted directly to Slynews UK. I am not a conspiracy theorist but???
Aguirre, the best example of the public’s BS detectors is Howard’s loss in 2007. If the MSM were to be believed, he was a great PM who should have been reelected and Rudd was the son of satan
my say
Posted Thursday, July 29, 2010 at 4:16 pm | Permalink
“i am so fed up with the negativity on this site you all should go back read it.
i wonder if some people may be actually from the OTHER side ”
My Say , there ar THREE other sides Posters here against Labor
First is Liberals , Glen & Dyno & Mr Squggles and they up front Libs and rasonable
Second is closet and non closet Greens who negative blog about ANYTHING Labor does & do so with deciet blogs of facts here if it helps there anti Labor rants , eg’s is j/v , TP , Diog , Adrian , young Peter Young , bob 1234 & many more
Third is some Greens who dont suport Labor but do fess up they’re Greens and ar reasonable in there opinions because they understand all decisions require a politcal consideraton to bring moderate voters (majority) with a Govt’s big change eg Itep , Gough1 , Jackol
second Group above , you better off just making a list of thems progressive , and then if you wish happy each day then scroll past those bloggers
my say , there is only one swing voter i seen here , rest is “pretend” swing voters
Andrew, who can forget the “Costello’s Budget masterclass” headlines after Budget night in 2007, complete with a cartoon image of Costello as a wizard (I think?). The media in 2007 were actually pretty hilarious.
TSOP
[Well just remember, this is the same guy who did the SA ALP a great service in March by going on record as saying that the government’s shrinking lead was just due to whingers who have no life and were stuck at home during the summer.]
I remember that article. It was possibly the worst political analysis I’ve ever read and that’s including three years of PB!
[speaking of the Murdoch papers, remember recent elections in the UK, and the PM Brown getting caught saying Bigot about a voter?
It was then transmitted directly to Slynews UK. I am not a conspiracy theorist but???]
I thought that Brown was still carrying a Skynews microphone on his lapel which had been overlooked once the presser had ended and he’d climbed back into his car.
[apparently Abbott has now said there will be further spending cuts. obviously, their figures don’t balance at the moment.]
I can’t say I’m surprised. Abbott is known for finding economic and financial matters boring.
Della is quitting politics.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/john-della-bosca-to-bow-out-of-politics/story-e6frgczx-1225898566123
[speaking of the Murdoch papers, remember recent elections in the UK, and the PM Brown getting caught saying Bigot about a voter?]
I was in the UK at the time and remember it well. My UK friends and I, although no fans of Brown or his government, agreed that she was an awful bigot so it was rather unfair to pillory Brown for saying so.
As far as I could see, the main question that arose was how could a politician of Brown’s experience possibly forget that a microphone is always live in the same sense that a gun is always loaded and a conversation with a journalist is always on the record?
[there is only one swing voter i seen here]
Ron, I am intrigued. I wonder who that might be. I pretty well agree with you assessment of the others.
bookies are taking money for Abbott.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-election/gillard-gets-the-wobbles-with-bookies-20100729-10x9f.html
[Della is quitting politics.]
The happy couple are going to open a nightclub?
Great Attack ad from the ALP:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsMvissz1Og
[there is only one swing voter i seen here]
Out them! Out them!
We must harrass them with party rhetoric and slogans and predict doom if they don’t vote our way!!!
“”Andrew Robb is now and expert on Gangs. Give me a break.””
Well he knows the corners and is an expert “crap” dealer
When did the bookies have the Libs at $5?
[Since Sunday’s debate, TAB Sportsbet has taken $25,000 worth of bets on the Coalition, which has seen them firm into $3.60 from $5.]
Bollocks.
[People are good at spotting BS.]
unless it agrees with their prejudice
Frank: are all these ads intended for TV, or just for youtube?
[We must harrass them with party rhetoric and slogans and predict doom if they don’t vote our way!!!]
Personally I drop ‘moving forward’ into as many discussions with friends and colleagues as possible. This subliminal tactic will see Labor home in Canberra.
[The happy couple are going to open a nightclub?]
Or starting up an old fashioned traveling roadshow boxing troupe. Anyone who can last longer than 30 seconds in the ring with ‘Basher’ Belinda wins a prize.
If Labor is in so much much trouble why do the most bookies today have them at $1.27 and the Libs at $3.60 – a sudden rush of generosity?
Re: the Brown thing. He screwed up, plain and simple. He had a mike on and called a voter a condescending name. He may have been right, but he did a stupid thing and the press were right to highlight it.
There is plenty of bias in the UK’s media, but in that case it was what any media outlet would’ve done. No conspiracy there.
To correct Ron, I am not a green more a progressive ‘evidence based voter’.
I’ll be voting green and preferencing labor. The political narrative needs to be drawn away from the intellectial dustbowl it presently is to a more policy focussed and nuanced debate. A green balance of power will help. I’ve also voted for a good independant.
And I cried tears of joy when gough (real no 1) won in 72. Sadly I haven’t been able to vote 1 labor for a very long time
[Frank: are all these ads intended for TV, or just for youtube?]
The ALP one certainly is.
Bob Ellis was embarrassing the Labor campaign in the SA state election and was told to go home, which he did.
How far out were the lieberals? $4.20, $4.50? $5 could not be right
It’s just occurred to me – I think I was saying similar things about the media trying to massage opinion before the last election.
The issue with cabinet leaks – that has some legs because it’s at least grounded in something, rather than just Alan-Jones-like random complaints. But from the very little I’ve seen today, Robb’s already over-playing the Coalition’s hand on it. He did ok last night with his “oh-this-is-awful-Labor’s-gonna-roon-us” schtick. But it’s encouraged him, hasn’t it? He’s out and about today repeating the same lines, and they’re already stale. He’s coming on like bad Hockey on Mogadon.
Everything else – “Labor mismanagement”, “Rudd executed”, “Boats!”, etc etc – they’re all static. Everyone heard that last week, and in the debate. They’re not going to sit there and listen to it again. It just gets tuned out.
“”There is plenty of bias in the UK’s media, but in that case it was what any media outlet would’ve done. No conspiracy there.””
No but plenty of hypocrisy. they say they want politicians who tell it as it is, no spin just fair dinkum stuff. well you could not get more fair dinkum and plain speaking than what brown said and he gets hauled over the coals for it. the media get what they deserve.
Gos, the betting markets tend to follow the polls. If there’s a series of close-ish results people with gambling addictions will find it hard to resist the odds.