Morgan: 53-47 phone poll, 54-46 face-to-face

Roy Morgan has unloaded two sets of results, one from the weekend’s normal face-to-face polling (which they normally release on Friday, for reasons I’ve never understood – operational ones, presumably) and the other from the 680-sample phone poll which produced last night’s dive in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings. The news is on the whole cheering for Labor, who lead 54-46 on the face-to-face poll (or 55.5-45.5 if you use the respondent-allocated preferences rather than going off 2007 election preferences) and 53-47 on the phone poll (the same result on both measures). The phone poll has Labor down two points on the primary vote from last week to 42 per cent with the Coalition up 3.5 per cent to 42 per cent, reducing the two-party lead from what seemed an overcooked 55.5-44.5 last week. The face-to-face poll has both major parties down on the primary vote since a week ago, Labor by one point to 43.5 per cent and the Coalition 1.5 per cent to 37 per cent. Neither poll records much change for the Greens, who are hovering around 11 per cent.

UPDATE: The Nine Network is also reporting a Galaxy poll with the two-party vote at 50-50, from primary votes of 37 per cent for Labor, 43 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is 49-37, compared with 55-35 at the start of the campaign. So this week we have had Newspoll, Morgan and Galaxy report 52-48, 53-47 and 50-50 on two-party preferred, and 50-34, 48-33 and 49-37 on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

763 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 phone poll, 54-46 face-to-face”

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  1. LP is a left wing blog. Frank just likes to call anyone with a difference view to him or the offical ALP line a Liberal. this can lead to bemusing results like the time Frank called John Brumby a Liberal.

  2. Ron – I think if Swan and others say – “look you can hear what people have said outside of Cabinet, and you can here what Cabinet decided, but I cant help you with what people said in Cabinet. I can help you with our view on X policies”.

    The journo has nowhere to go without looking silly after the first couple of gos with the same answer.

  3. [Well their Pro Rudd/Ant-Gillard meme will produce that result.]

    Frank I agree, as will the opposite – Anti Rudd/Pro Gillard

  4. [Again I don’t think many swing voters are reading LP or PB or for that matter watching Skynews]

    I feel a bit pollyanna about the situation re Kevin and Julia now and wish both ‘sides’ would ease up on the other.

  5. [Again I don’t think many swing voters are reading LP or PB or for that matter watching Skynews]

    But Campaign Strategists do.

    And they tailor their campaigns accordingly.

  6. One of the essentials of politics is to be prepared to debate differences and explore new ways of doing things. Thats Frank’s problem sometimes – no debate, just follow the party line.

    The obvious problems occur when the policies or personalities are not working. Who will say the emperor has no clothes or the policy needs changing.

    Now some of the debate needs to be a bit coded but its no good saying that the media will crucify that sort of discussion and debate. If we are only allowed to talk about new ideas of which the media approve then progress towards a better and more equal society is next to impossible. And it destroys the appeal of party membership if you have to stop thinking in critical ways.

  7. [Kevin Bonham! Enough with the theology! Will Labor hold Bass and Braddon?]

    I expect them to hold both.

    [Will Lisa Singh beat Guy Barnett?]

    Bit sceptical about that one. I hope so.

  8. Yes the campaign strategist do and bascially this campaign is going along slowly with the ALP with its nose in front. Jules is at her best when she is on the front foot, looking at the Women’s Weekly photos, Jules looks very good in some of the photos and that will do more good for the ALP than the leaks will do hard to its campaign.

  9. Wakefield
    Posted Friday, July 30, 2010 at 12:32 am | Permalink

    Ron – I think if Swan and others say –
    1/ “look you can hear what people have said outside of Cabinet, and
    2/ you can here what Cabinet decided,
    3/ but I cant help you with what people said in Cabinet.
    4/ I can help you with our view on X policies”.

    Wakefield , i did hear Julia on APAC say your points 2 and 3./ earlier in week , but i noticed it did not gt reported ! (and alkso I’ve heard Swan say 3/ and 4/)

    I believe no further comment was made for reasons i said Now that ‘story’ has gone on and on , I’d agree with you it does needs to be more challenged

    Actualy IF i was Julia’s advisor instead of these damn minders , i’d suggest picking ph up to Kevin ands saying G’day , and I’m coming to Griffith electorate to campiagn WITH you , and publicly…i think that would great assist as well

  10. Frank I knew what you ment and lets repeat myself Jules response was positive, clear and concise, she received positive feedback from the media and so what if soem members of the Liberal Party read that in cyber space a few people think person A or person B leaked something to the media or went to the market and brought a leek

  11. I agree with Psephos assessment, I think it is unlikely that the ALP will lost 10 seats in Queensland fort I just don’t see the South-East corner turning to Tone

  12. If you look at the betting sites – current betting is for not many seats changing hands. There a a few obvious chances to pick varying odds bewteen sites. Sports Bet has Labor close in Canning and well ahead in Hasluck. Centrebet has Labor well behind in Canning and equal in hasluck. Dont the punters look for the best odds?

  13. I agree as well with the Tassie prediction. Kevin what’s your prediction on the margin in Franklin?

    I suspect it will revert to more normal and go back to being relatively safe Labor behind Denison and Lyons.

  14. [Kevin what’s your prediction on the margin in Franklin?]

    Haven’t thought about it much but off the top of my head 56-44.

    Centrebet have odds for Denison:

    Jackson (ALP) 1.03
    Simpkins (Lib) 8.50
    Couser (GRN) 26.00
    Wilkie (Ind) 51.00

    I think 1.03 for Jackson is about right but in the very unlikely case that anyone else wins it won’t be the Liberal!

  15. my…what a lot Abbott will have to tell his Best Mate Cardinal Pell when they meet this weekend…as Abbott has said they do.!
    What will Tony have to confess…and will the Cardinal have a wiff of power ?

  16. Why Hasn’t the ALP started their negative Ad Campaign against Abbott, this frigger is a GOLDMINE of Nastiness to mine (Especially viz a via WORKCHOICES) and the only negative ads I’ve seen so far are the Union Ones; FOR CHRIST SAKES ALP START THE NEGATIVE AD CAMPAIGN AGAINST ABBOTT (Sorry about the Shouty Text) !!!

  17. [Why Hasn’t the ALP started their negative Ad Campaign against Abbott, this frigger is a GOLDMINE of Nastiness to mine (Especially viz a via WORKCHOICES) and the only negative ads I’ve seen so far are the Union Ones; FOR CHRIST SAKES ALP START THE NEGATIVE AD CAMPAIGN AGAINST ABBOTT (Sorry about the Shouty Text) !!!]

    Keep calm, Negative TV Ads will be ramped up in the final 2 weeks of the campaign – too early and too often and they lose their impact.

  18. I saw an attack ad on Tuesday.

    I for one thinks that at the moment the ALP has run a positive campaign and I believe in time the voters will respond to it, so by turning agressive towards Tone while exciting the base may actually acheive an adverse effect in voterland

  19. The radios have been leading off with Lathams comments accusing Rudd of being the leaker so it looks like another day of reporting on the leaker story.

    Alp need to put this to bed quickly as it will eventually cost them big time.


  20. [The Coalition has announced it will appoint an independent commissioner to oversee all major environmental programs.]

    Where will the staff come from?

  21. [SHARP division has emerged between the Liberals and the Nationals over foreign ownership of rural land and water in Australia.
    The split in the Coalition came after its spokesman on agriculture and food security, Nationals MP John Cobb, backed a Greens plan for the registration of all foreign purchases of land and water supplies, in defiance of opposition policy.

    Coalition Treasury spokesman and Liberal MP Joe Hockey told The Australian last night he strongly opposed the idea of a registry.]

    I wonder what the LNP view is? 😉

  22. ruawake, I see the Townsville Bulletin was running a story that cattle prices at Charters Towers last week were the best yet this year so the local cockies might be able to buy a bit of the farm back, maybe.

  23. I think the LNP view will be if they have got the money give them the land. You can’t turn away good money at the border can you?

  24. “How surprisement from Their ABC- a Wireless Program on Sunday which which warns of a “Cost Blowout” in the NBN.”

    Yep, another example of the bias and incompetence of our media.

    Spend a few hours searching for an “expert” to back up the totally baseless story line you want to run.

  25. Sunrise also showing “a day in the life of Tony Abbott”. Started off showing his daily 30 k bike ride, but then I turned off in case the budgies came out. Didn’t want to have to throw the cornflakes out.

  26. [“Cost Blowout” in the NBN.”]

    Why didn’t this so called expert state which company he worked for, may help as people would know to expect a costs blow out of 50-100% in his project estimates.

    The head of the NBN said the rollout in Tassie came in under budget and on time, an accomplished fact not some wild statement by an unknown.

    So really shouldn’t the headline be

    NBN under budget, ahead of time disproves so called experts baseless costs blowout claim.

    I mean aren’t they supposed to report the news?

    We probably need someone from the BBC appointed to the ABC to clean it out and show how news should be reported. It has unfortunately declined into little more than unfounded, unresearched and untested statements and rumours.

  27. Looks like Howard will be in line for the new job of environment commissioner that Abbott proposes.

    Howard is known for his passion for the environment and the cricket job looks no go for him.

  28. BK
    Thanks for BP-Transocean-Halliburton link

    Good to see all 3 of these companies logos on the report; I wonder how strong is Halliburton’s cross-aisle lobbying; I assume Dick Cheney wouldnt do too much with Obama…

  29. Laocoon
    Yes, it is going to be interesting to see how this all pans out. It is noteworthy that this Mike Papantonio lawyer guy has filed a RICO suit on the three companies. It would be lovely to see Cheney caught up in it all – almost as satisfying as seeing a Pyne defeat!
    On another subject I was delighted to see in the paper this morning that our little Adelaide Hills outpost will just sneak in to the NBN fibre optic web. Some people here are only able to access paired gain copper dial-up.
    I think a sleeper issue for the Coaltion is going to be the number of policies where the Libs and the Nats are diametrically opposed to each other (eg NBN, Murray-Darling). If the schisms persist an Abbott government will be unable to deliver.

  30. I love how one accusation, one statement, one poll always ends up being turned into multiples. Take the broadband story from today as an example:

    The title says: “Expert predicts broadband cost blowout”

    The lead in says: “There are claims the cost of the $43 billion National Broadband Network (NBN) could double.”

    The first actual paragraph says: “Experienced industry consultant and project manager Malcolm McKenzie …”

    The 2nd paragraph says: “The claim comes…”

    So where does the ‘claims’ part at the start of the story come from? I am sick an tired of this bs. This usually happens with polls. One bad Newspoll and suddenly it is ‘polls’. One leak and it becomes ‘leaks’. 1% complaints of bad projects in the BER becomes a ‘monumental disaster’. 200 house fires becomes the firebombing of Tokyo. This media hyperbole bs is getting on my nerves.

    /end rant

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