It’s on: August 21

The Prime Minister has surprised nobody by confirming this morning that Australia has entered its first winter election campaign since 1987. The final remaining question – whether the date would be August 21 or 28 – has been resolved in favour of the former, meaning the issue of the writs and consequent closure of enrolments will occur on Monday, to Labor’s disadvantage (John Howard strikes from the grave). Psephos in comments identifies an auspicious historical precedent on this date for Labor. Appropriately, Antony Green’s election guide has opened for business this morning, and an impressive effort from Ben Raue at The Tally Room has been going for a while. My own effort will follow over the coming week.

Some recent happenings on the candidate selection front:

• Fairfax reports there have been talks between Tony Abbott and Mal Brough about the latter returning to politics, with Brough indicating he would be interested in his home electorate of Fisher on the Sunshine Coast. The seat is held by underachieving long-term member Peter Slipper, who denies having been tapped on the shoulder.

• Another Liberal National Party candidate has bitten the dust, this time in Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith. Emma Chalmers of The Courier-Mail reports a belief in the LNP camp that Rudd might quit after all led it to dump John Humphreys, an economist and one-time principal of the libertarian Liberal Democratic Party, so it could lock in a higher profile candidate with the potential to win the seat. The report goes so far as to nominate potential successors to Rudd: “Brisbane City Council Labor leader Shayne Sutton, lawyer Russell Thirgood and former state party treasurer Damian Power, who are all from Mr Rudd’s faction”.

• AAP reports Belinda Neal is refusing to say whether she will contest her seat of Robertson as an independent. Speculation has been boosted by the fact that she made the effort to advertise for a vacant media officer position on the weekend.

• The Liberals finally got around to choosing a candidate for the famously crucial western Sydney seat of Lindsay on Monday, with 33-year-old marketing manager Fiona Scott winning the preselection vote over 55-year-old school teacher Margaret Grand by 31 votes to seven. The Daily Telegraph reports Scott recommended herself to the party as she was “a safe candidate“ who “wouldn’t get in the way” of a backlash against the government on asylum seekers.

• The Liberals will today preselect candidates for other Sydney seats including winnable Greenway, which according to the Blacktown Sun looms as a contest between “Jayme Diaz, 34, and small business operator Venus Priest, 40”.

• Labor’s member for the highly endangered Queensland seat of Flynn, Chris Trevor, has confirmed he will contest the election after suggestions he was sufficiently alienated by Kevin Rudd’s demise to call it a day. Trevor took the opportunity of his announcement to condemn the “disgraceful” manner of Rudd’s treatment by “various factional bosses”.

• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian says Julia Gillard was prompted to challenge for the leadership by “polling in marginal seats in western Sydney and Queensland that showed she and the Liberal leader were ahead of the then prime minister in the key Labor-held seat of Lindsay in Sydney’s west and she was only six percentage points behind in Rudd’s home state of Queensland as preferred Labor leader”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

668 thoughts on “It’s on: August 21”

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  1. I could not bring myself to watch Tone’s speech and q&a. Was it really that bad, or some bias at play?

    I found his speech quite effective, the Q&A less so. The thing about Abbott is that when pre-planned his comments can certainly cut through, but he’s never been much of an improvisor. I agree that Gillard would be a fool not to hold more than one debate with him.

  2. Abbott wedged himself on Work Choices today. He said that they were not going to change anything, that they were not going to change Labor’s IR laws, and then complained about the impact of Labor’s IR laws. Abetz’ comments haven’t helped.

  4. “”but he’s never been much of an improvisor””

    Agreed the O’Brien interviewer was a classic. He finds it hard to get back on track and he says things he should not. meanwhile gilliard brings it back on message and can think on her feet.

  5. itsvibe
    About 80% negative, with no new substance. It was in answering the questions that he put up a sub-par performance, IMHO.

  6. I found his speech quite effective, the Q&A less so.

    His speech was awfully short. He is trying to be P.M., surely he had more to say about what he would do that that pissy 4 minute speech?

  7. I must add that choosing August 21st for the election date, thus giving young people only two days to enrol, is a rather astonishingly idiotic move on Gillard’s part. I just hope she exercises much better tactical judgement than that during the campaign.

  8. I agree ShowsOn…there was no gravitas from he who proffers himself as PM. Was like a speech at the bar at the Manly rugby club

  9. All I can say is I am surprised at Abbotts performance for he can be a strong speaker but that performance was weak. A Costello or Turnbull would have been much better options for the Liberals.

    A truly confidence leader would not mention workchoices but would instead have focused on what his plans for the future are. do the Liberals actually understand that this election is 2010 not 2007 and if workchoices is dead then why mention.

    I guess Tuirnbull can update his C.V for on the 23th August he will be starting a new job “Leader of the Liberal Party”

  10. itsthevibe@457

    I must add that choosing August 21st for the election date, thus giving young people only two days to enrol, is a rather astonishingly idiotic move on Gillard’s part. I just hope she exercises much better tactical judgement than that during the campaign.

    Julia had no choice – going later would’ve interfered with Footy finals, School Holidays, Commonwealth Games and Fathers Day.

  16. mexicanbeemer@462

    With due respect young people over the age of 18 have no excuse for not being on the roll.

    And personally I reckon that they should be automatically enrolled as soon as they turn 18 – which can be done via the AEC who can get the details via Medicare/Centrelink or their School/University.

  21. With due respect young people over the age of 18 have no excuse for not being on the roll.

    I agree — they’ve known about it all year … no excuses.

  22. She came across well on SKY just now. Speers didn’t interrupt her this time, a problem he seems to have on Agenda a lot of the time.

  23. Frank
    I couldn’t work out his campaign slogan from his speech or his answers to questions. Is it really ‘Time to Change’.

  27. Boerwar@473

    Frank
    I couldn’t work out his campaign slogan from his speech or his answers to questions. Is it really ‘Time to Change’.

    Well that’s the headline in the TErrorgraph.

  29. With New South Wales and Victoria changing to automatic enrolment the Commonwealth might decide to change over after the Senate changes next year.

  30. He made a big call ending on ‘we’ll stop the boats’.

    Unless he can stop the war in Afghanistan, he won’t be able to ‘stop the boats’

  32. Was I missing grammer.

    Maybe I’m odd but there are three great things about turning 18

    Drinking, Driving and Voting.

    Yes their should be some sort of in school enrolment system.

  34. A couple of things I kinda of wonder at.

    When the English budget came out with the increase of the VAT, there was a great deal of talk that Abbott was planning on upping the GST. Is that still the goss?

    And does he honestly think focusing on the word ‘trust’ is sensible since he is not considered ‘trustworthy’ by the general public?

  35. I’m just rewatching Gillard’s press conference and a particular line stood out for me in terms of its potential effectiveness. I dearly hope she repeats this a sufficient number of times while on the campaign trail:

    “My commitment to this country stands in stark contrast to the commitment of the Opposition. Their gaze is fixed in the rear-view mirror rather than on the road ahead.”

    Good stuff!

  38. Boerwar

    Thanks. What sort of day temperature works and do you dilute what you buy?

    I think the commercial one is so strong that temps are irrelevant but it is also very,very expensive.
    We found that applying the cheap, own brand vinegar neat in the sunniest part of the day was most effective.
    Mind you since the temps have plummetted we haven’t done much in the way weed maintenance so I would be guessing.

  40. I also liked when he said ‘we’ll respect the public’s dollars’ or something to that effect — regional rorts anyone? funds to the former leader of Iraq anyone?

  41. Urged on by Abbot who told employers, sack those employees you have always wanted to sack, whilst at the same time telling employees a bad boss is better than no boss. The employers followed his instructions to the hilt

    Did Abbott really say that? If so, the unions should quote him in their adds. It’s dynamite.

  44. And does he honestly think focusing on the word ‘trust’ is sensible since he is not considered ‘trustworthy’ by the general public?

    No doubt he expects to be carried by the media all the way to the 21st, and sees no need to be sensible. Someone will always clean up after him, after all…

  46. Thanks Dee @ 447.

    Fortunately I don’t worry about weedkiller as I am one of the world’s hopeless gardeners and most of the weeds in my garden are actually quite nice looking and easier to maintain than any flowers or shrubs I’ve tried to nurture!

    I’m afraid I couldn’t bring myself to watch Abbott’s speech today and I’m actually hoping to avoid him for the entire campaign – I can’t stand the man I’m afraid. For feedback I’m relying on the more reputable members of this blog who are normally cogent, interesting to read and pertinent in their comments. Also tres amusente at times, even ROTFL.

  48. .I’m afraid I couldn’t bring myself to watch Abbott’s speech today and I’m actually hoping to avoid him for the entire campaign –

    nor me allan i wonder how many other people feel like that.

    i have always listened to both sides re launches etc this time i will not be

  49. Good point! Why do voters have to manually register to vote? It should be automatically done.

    The evils of data sharing – Federal Depts hate sharing their hard earned stuff.

  50. Good point! Why do voters have to manually register to vote? It should be automatically done.

    I don’t understand why we are a country that supposedly has compulsory voting, but voluntary enrollment.

    Those two things are completely contradictory.

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