Nothing to link to yet, but the Channel Nine news has told of Galaxy polling to appear in News Limited’s Sunday tabloids showing Labor with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, with Julia Gillard leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 55-32. On the former count Galaxy has shown impressive consistency: it’s the same result as the poll conducted on the first two evenings of Gillard’s prime ministership (which came with breakdowns for each of the two evenings, both of which had it at 52-48), as well as its poll of last week. More to follow.
UPDATE: Full results here. Stability too on the primary vote: Labor and the Coalition steady on 39 per cent and 42 per cent respectively, the Greens down one to 13 per cent and others up one to 6 per cent. A very healthy 67 per cent support an early election (which Patricia Karvelas of The Australian absurdly described as “exceptionally early” – as Possum points out, this was in fact the longest serving first term government since World War II). Labor is rated as less underserving to win than the Coalition, 40 per cent to 30 per cent, but 57 per cent think Labor’s treatment of Kevin Rudd will harm its chances against 37 per cent who disagree.
There’s no better feeling than the realisation that the seat of Sturt is right in play.
Thanks, Aguirre.
Psephos
Could it really be that Chelonians are better observers than Octopodes?
Paterson on the radar? God I hope so Psephos
[Tone’s masterful performance. was it better than my beloved Bombers.]
No, no, MB – I meant that the Bombers didn’t soar as high in failure – they had a loss but, in comparison, nothing like this newspoll figure so Tone has outdone them.
[Option 2: Tone loses and no more Tone.]
3, the new opposition leader, likely Hockey maybe Turnbull, will support putting a price on carbon.
Which should’ve been done 10 years ago.
Gus, Diog has been hiding from me. he is too chicken to face the music.
[Paterson on the radar? God I hope so Psephos]
Will be going like mallee bulls at this end Benji – hope the same down the other end.
[Could it really be that Chelonians are better observers than Octopodes?]
Cephalopods?
*wanders off to read some more of Master and Commander, trying not to chortle, and keeping hubris where it belongs*
Tone needs a better song.
Like ‘Nixon Now’ 😀
[Gus, Diog has been hiding from me. he is too chicken to face the music.]
What happened? You accused him of being annoying?
Oh NO NO NO NO. Slynews is making its top news of that Labor slump in that Galaxy Poll. And reported by Oakes. FARQwit.
[You accused him of being annoying?]
i accuse Diog of everything under the sun 👿
Finns
Dio has succumbed to the KFC
So the 55-45 result will be fobed off as a rouge 😀
LOL
50/50 will be closer to the probable 52-48 result 😀
So this poll will be discounted by the MSM.
Told you Galaxy was more respect by Oakes and the MSM than Newspoll Finns
Shouldn’t Newspoll really be asking for preference distribution now that the campaign is on, rather than relying on last election’s distribution?
Having said that, the campaign wasn’t officially on when they started polling on Friday.
Paterson is only on 0.6%, so it must be a chance. But I suspect the swing is coming from Vic and SA, where Gillard is getting not one but two home-town boosts. If I was the Hon Christopher Maurice, or GMO, or Bruce Billson, I’d start working much harder.
[He’s given every indication that he’ll never be able to let go of WorkChoices]
After the whole song and dance routine on Workchoices being dead, buried and cremated (again more symbols of death than a Bernini chapel), but then qualifying it that this is only for 3 years (WTF?), how can he recover on this issue?
What hyperbole can he possibly use next – Beelzebub is eating workchoices in the final circle of hell?? – that has shred of credibility?
glen, you are my new Diog?
Glen
55-45 is wRONg
maybe its 57*43
😉
Great line from “Big Harto” (the fake John Hartigan account on twitter):
[50/50 will be closer to the probable 52-48 result :D]
Well if the result is 53/47, which is closer to last time, then 55/45 is closer than 50/50.
But I agree 55/45 feels 2 – 3% too high because 55 would be a landslide of 1943 proportions.
Antony Greens house of reps calculator.
Labor 99
LNP 48
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/?swing=national&national=2.3&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1
Here’s hoping 🙂
No Finns
I am ‘Acting Diog’.
Did Hawkie have a good sex? as i dont venture to the dark corners
Jon
100 seats
as long as there is no doping
I’m glad Crikey is keeping its website up to date and telling is to READ this essay now “Why Rudd is Failing”.
As Julia said to Abbott on her first day as PM, “Game on, Tony”.
I reckon Abbott should concede tomorrow to Mother Gillard and save the tax payers $100m that would be spent conducting the erection.
[What hyperbole can he possibly use next …]
He could start with some practical measures like wearing a string of garlic around his neck and carrying a wooden mallet in his hands to drive a stake through the heart of Workchoices if it rises again under a full moon.
[I’m glad Crikey is keeping its website up to date and telling is to READ this essay now “Why Rudd is Failing”.]
Keane was gloating on Twitter tonight about knocking off another essay. Hopefully not more of his inane ramblings about nuclear power.
Glen, are you going to go down to Frankston and do some door-knocking for Billson? He may need you.
Bruce will get back the anti-Howard/WC swing in 2007 his current margin is closer to 8% IMHO.
He is a lock in Dunkley.
Well I’m heading off out of internet contact for the rest of the week. It’s going to be difficult being in a vacuum during this first full week of the campaign.
Have a good time PBers!
shows
once the LHC is finished its work-I will be onside
onwards and upward
Overhead Bob Ellis today saying that JG PM had made the wrong choices and had misunderstood the feeling about dumping Rudd. I wanted to hit him.
But it was nice in Bronwyn Bishop country, and who could be bad on the peninsular.
there will be 4 weeks still to go BK! 🙂
[ as long as there is no doping ]
only 48 dopes according to the calculator gus.
Glen,
Surely you are happy that Chris Pearce is retiring. He didn’t do much more than waste space for 9 years.
[Overhead Bob Ellis today saying that JG PM had made the wrong choices and had misunderstood the feeling about dumping Rudd.]
He wrote the same thing on The Drum a few days ago. In fact, he went as far as to predict Abbott would be the next PM.
Ryan must be a risk for the LNP, surely, with the ongoing noise there
Jon
I imeant the rope a dopes of the MSM
Shame the guy replacing him is a yutz.
Same goes for Wannon an absolute nobody.
Psephos – why do you think this may be coming from SA and Vic and not Qld and NSW?
[once the LHC is finished its work-I will be onside]
Thanks Gus, it will be good to have you on board.
Glen, he is on 4% in a suburban seat. His personal standing may be worth 2% at most. If there’s a big swing, he will go. I don’t expect he will, but this election could well turn very nasty for the Libs. Abbott is the worst product any party has put before the electorate since Calwell in 1966. Yes, worse than Latham!
[Same goes for Wannon an absolute nobody.]
But the Liberals only hold Wannon by ~13,000 votes.
That will be a marginal seat when Julia gets the sophomore surge in 2013. 😀
shows
LHC is to science as newton is to safety
ie if we can contain it we can control it
🙂
and now for something completely different.
i have not stopped crying for Norman since i heard his sad divorce from Chrissy.
[GOLF legend Greg Norman’s sister has hit out at his former wife Chris Evert, declaring that their marriage was “doomed”.
Tired of her brother’s ex-wives telling their tales of woe, Janis Norman has broken her silence, telling New Idea magazine Evert did not like the fact Norman was the bigger star.
“She became very dominating and controlling. It became very apparent she was treating my brother badly,” Ms Norman told the magazine.]
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/entertainment/confidential/leave-my-little-brother-alone/story-e6frf96o-1225893674493