Nothing to link to yet, but the Channel Nine news has told of Galaxy polling to appear in News Limited’s Sunday tabloids showing Labor with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, with Julia Gillard leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 55-32. On the former count Galaxy has shown impressive consistency: it’s the same result as the poll conducted on the first two evenings of Gillard’s prime ministership (which came with breakdowns for each of the two evenings, both of which had it at 52-48), as well as its poll of last week. More to follow.
UPDATE: Full results here. Stability too on the primary vote: Labor and the Coalition steady on 39 per cent and 42 per cent respectively, the Greens down one to 13 per cent and others up one to 6 per cent. A very healthy 67 per cent support an early election (which Patricia Karvelas of The Australian absurdly described as “exceptionally early” – as Possum points out, this was in fact the longest serving first term government since World War II). Labor is rated as less underserving to win than the Coalition, 40 per cent to 30 per cent, but 57 per cent think Labor’s treatment of Kevin Rudd will harm its chances against 37 per cent who disagree.
RWDB?
[I keep hearing that the Coalition have to win 17 seats to win the election. I thought that they had only to win an additional 8 or 9.]
It depends on if you take into account the redistribution or not. There are 5 seats held by the Coalition that are now notionally Labor due to redistributions.
Add to that some seats like McKewen that have no sitting member due to a retirement, which will be harder for the Coalition to retain than if they had a sitting member running for re-election.
Right
wing
death/drone/destructo
bloggers
Especially if it gets close.
Expect GP and Toothy to come back.
[I keep hearing that the Coalition have to win 17 seats to win the election. I thought that they had only to win an additional 8 or 9.]
After the 2007 election the ALP held 83 seats, the L-NP 64 seats and 3 Independents.
Now after the re-distributions the holds 88 seats, the L-NP 59 seats and 3 independents.
Hence 59 + 17 = 76 seats for a majority.
Some will calim there are 4 independents with Ryan as well.
Let’s try that again:
[Now after the re-distributions the ALP holds 88 seats, the L-NP 59 seats and 3 independents.
Hence 59 + 17 = 76 seats for a majority.
Some will claim there are 4 independents with Ryan as well, giving the L-NP only 58 seats and needing to win 18 seats.]
[Expect GP and Toothy to come back.]
Has The Lying Racist been unbanned? If so, that’s a massive mistake.
who was the abc reporter that counted how many time Julia said going forward
was it Ulman
PB is a broad and forgiving congregation
Aristotle and ShowsOn
Thank you.
Cuppa’s right. The double standards over Gillard ‘sloganeering’ compared with Abbott’s constant stream of slogans ever since he became leader is something to behold.
Gillard is on Sky news now talking to Speers. He is unbelievably asking her if Swan will remain treasurer if she wins govt.
my say@58
Yup.
Also Oakes mentioned that (whilst showing footage of her repeating moving forward) and then said that Abbott didnt repeat himself with slogans like Ms Gillard. It looked bad for Ms Gillard.
Gillard should say that she would guarantee that Swan would get the Treasurer job if Abbott would guarantee that Joyce will get the Treasurer’s job.
Glen@63
Don’t worry, he mentioned GBNT during the Perth cross quite a few times.
[OMG. What period did this poll take place over?]
when you say omg is that good or bad
Oakes probably read the biography of Reid and felt withdrawal symptoms.
Speers did that interview at 5pm.
He did ask inane questions, but at least he didn’t interrupt her, as he usually does.
Or did they just copy oakes – he did the same on ch9 sydney
[who was the abc reporter that counted how many time Julia said going forward]
Every channel I watched mentioned the number of times in some form. They are correct. She should be more sensible. Abbott has his GBNT and “stop the boats” bull etc, but that doesn’t make it right for her to do it as well.
It’s unnecessary and counterproductive.
It’s a good slogan and a good theme, but it shouldn’t be flogged to death.
[Frank Calabrese
Posted Saturday, July 17]
frank my Oh is just starting to take notice so if he is starting to take notice
every one is if you know what i mean. and he was furious that an abc reporter only had that on his mind instead of issues.
would tweeting make it worse or better these people have to realise we pay there wages to learn stuff not count
Or is it best to ignore him OH said Julia did just that.
So, journalistic policy analysis has been reduced to counting words.
They are not far off being hordes of monkeys typing randomly at keyboards. The results would be just as valuable.
If The TPP and PMM dont improve for Abbott in the next two weeks. They probably will bring Turnbull back. 👿
So our press gallery are there simply to count the number of times the leaders mention specific phrases or words? Sorry, I want more than that, and expect it from the services I pay for (ABC, Sky).
frank now and again would you put the link to the liberal site when you think there is reason to comment over there. its awful place to be but if it helps you never know some unsuspecting person may learn something if we are polite.
especially the woman who doest nt know was born in the uk
[So our press gallery are there simply to count the number of times the leaders mention specific phrases or words? Sorry, I want more than that]
Ummm neither side has any new policies. I’m not surprised.
[PB is a broad and forgiving congregation]
Gus, what has the chick done wRONg?
VexNews – whoever they are – have somehow managed to convince themselves that the Libs only need to win 6 seats.
They seem to think it’s a piece of cake. Perhaps they haven’t noticed yet who’s leading the opposition
Finns
It all depends on how even the numbers are, electorate by electorate.
52/48 is not a good margin.
BTW, I did call a Dolphin friend of mine to do the daily score but she told me that she was too busy meditating on the nature of infinity to be bothered about earthlings. So, Bluey the cephalopod is only second best.
[They are not far off being hordes of monkeys typing randomly at keyboards. The results would be just as valuable.]
suppose there is no point tell them that because my OH just hates politics he sort of person who does not like arguments and discussion like that.
So as i said if he noticed it and was annoyed re counting the rest of the country that are not rusted liberals would notice it to.
so lets just let them make be noticed by doing this type of thing it really is school boy stuff isnt
Now That’s a lot better :-p)
For those who don’t have Sky and want to have a look, A-Pac has it on at the moment and has a panel discussion coming up in a minute or two. Listen while you blog! 😉
Hawker & Roscom now.
http://www.a-pac.tv/
Maybe those of us who have Pay TV should tell them we will cancel our subscription if the News channel doesn’t start to be more balanced in its coverage.
Hit them whee it hurts — their hip pocket nerve!
[VexNews – whoever they are – have somehow managed to convince themselves that the Libs only need to win 6 seats.]
let them think it then isnt that the site we saw the liberals celebrating Mr. Whitlam
going to a nursing home is it a young liberal site.
Ah, how sweet. Once they were sweethearts. This is going to a lovey :kiss: lovey :kiss: election
[Maybe those of us who have Pay TV should tell them we will cancel our subscription if the News channel doesn’t start to be more balanced in its coverage.]
who does that one belong to is it murdoch if you have other tv why not just cancel like we did our paper
[Ummm neither side has any new policies. I’m not surprised.]
The opposition have had no new policies for ages, yet we don’t hear this backlash in the MSM against Tone’s constant sloganeering harping. Why are they starting now with Jools?
“Dead buried *and* cremated” is neat trick I’d like to see, Abbott spoke like a pre programmed darlek but we found the pearled white lady moving forward a little OTT.
Good that it’s on!
[52/48 ]
we won with that last time
Because Ms Gillard has no new policies either Confessions.
Neither side can because we’re broke.
So all the parties are doing are recycling policies.
Such a boring campaign this will be for ideas.
It will be dirty and very dirty by both sides because that’s all they’ve got to offer us.
The big problem with “Moving forward” is it means nothing. Repeating a slogan that conveys something eg “No GST”, “GBNT”. Maybe “Moving Forward” could become the Labor Party’s “Incentivation”.
[Dead buried *and* cremated” is neat trick ]
ah you spotted that i posted on the last thread so did my OH
he keeps saying to me not possible not possible
unless he resurrects and then cremates it sounds like that on his mind
or did he know he even said it i doubt he does
Glen@90
At least we aren’t reduced to Grovelling for Money like Tony is.
http://www.liberal.org.au/Latest-News/Blog/2010/07/Stand-up-for-Australia.aspx?utm_medium=email&utm_source=SwordEmailer&utm_content=299260900&utm_campaign=ElectionStandupforAustralia
Boerwar
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2010/jul/16/june-2010-warmest-recorded
[The big problem with “Moving forward” is it means nothing]
i think its great for stickers etc IT time was a great slogan
but i dont think they repeated much so i think we should tweet julia
FRANK and perhaps suggest its a great slogan but for car windows and adds
No they just get money from their Union mates to tell them when to knife a PM 😀
Enough to make Brian Burke proud 😀
Boerwar
[They are not far off being hordes of monkeys typing randomly at keyboards. The results would be just as valuable.]
And they would of course be a lot cheaper! Oakes, Toolman, La Grattan etc expect more than bananas in return for their “work”!
Go for Growth
Moving Forward is rubbish.
I know the Tories dont have one but Moving Forward LOL worse than Go for Growth
Moving Forward means bugger all
[Neither side can because we’re broke.]
Give us a break, we have the lowest debt out of any developed country. The constant and completely irrational fear of debt completely debases political debate. If past Australian governments were worried as much about debt we wouldn’t have any schools, hospitals, roads, sewerage, phone lines, power generators. We wouldn’t have any of the things that make us a country that millions of people around the world wish they could live in.
“Moving forward” is a phrase on our boardroom buzzword bingo list at work, along with synergies, at the end of the day, value add, etc. One of those phrases that grates after a while.