What everyone expects to be the last Morgan face-to-face poll before tomorrow’s election announcement finds Labor’s two-party lead slipping from 56.5-43.5 to 53.5-46.5, if using the preference figure derived from the 2007 election results. However, Labor is evidently doing better now with respondent-allocated preferences, which Morgan is now using as the basis for its headline calculation, as their lead on that measure has only slipped from 55-45 to 54.5-45.5. The primary vote figures give Labor cause for concern: their primary vote is down five to 40.5 per cent, with the Coalition up three to 41 per cent and the Greens up 1.5 per cent to 12 per cent. This is very similar to the last poll under Kevin Rudd, except that Labor and the Greens are each 0.5 per cent lower with “others” 1 per cent higher.
[I think JGillard will still win with a reasonable margin all things being equal. If it is 51.5/48.5 now after allowing for Morgan’s usual bias there is probably enough incumbency and novelty effect with JGillard to get her over the line at 52/48 or so.]
Where are you getting these numbers TP?
The number you quote as inflated was 54.5/45.5. William scaled that down to 53.5/46.5 nowhere does it say 51.5/48.5
JV – boom tish!
Wm
Help! If Labor got 40.5% of the primary vote and 80% of 12% = 9.6% (the Green vote) that still only gets them to around around 50%. Where do the other 3.5% come from?
innumerately yrs
confused
[59 A Good Lurk
Posted Friday, July ]
what a great story you should email that to bob
[Posted Friday, July 16, 2010 at 7:33 pm | Permalink
I understand groups of females of the species are known by the collective term “octopussy”]
so you where watching ‘ can we help ‘ to.
Morgan’s FTF used to have a consistent habit of over stating Labor’s support by a few percent in comparison to the other polls.
I don’t know if that is still the case.
I note that the Morgan consumer confidence levels have gone up.
I’m most looking forward to the opposition announcing the massive cuts to spending they need to make to improve on Labor’s budget position. Any ideas??
Testing my memory of the 1980s at each election won by the ALP, they improved their position during the campaign.
Howard continued that trend.
jv
Do voters change politicians attitudes or the other way ’round. Is it the role of Govt to “educate” voters or to follow their will?
If a far right party gets 10% of the vote in the future, should their supporters be ignored?
Just askin.
The opposition is boxed in by their promises re spending, Gillard’s strategy to offset any spending with cuts, and their reckless spending hysteria.
fredn
Bob Ellis has written a good resume for your friend Mr Fraser;
[He acceded to Indonesia’s takeover of East Timor and the slaughter of thousands that followed. He employed Alan Jones as a speechwriter. He sought to boycott the Moscow Olympics because the Soviet Union had occupied Afghanistan, a dreadful thing to do, but many team members, defying him, went and competed anyway. He put Australia into massive inflation and then massive recession and then, inadvertently, drought, and the latter it was I think that did for him as Prime Minister.
In rancorous semi-retirement he became one of the Eminent Persons who sorted out Southern Rhodesia by putting Robert Mugabe in charge of it.]
Ironic it may be, our Olympic team was told to boycott the Moscow Games because Russia was in Afghanistan and some years later his then treasurer gets us in to the thick of Afghanistan. Let us all boycott the Lieberals for good measure.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2829332.htm
Boerwar – all the metrics have gone up for Labor in the past month. Only those in deep denial believe that the change in leadership has had nothing to do with it.
The media are still toxic; the Coalition have absolutely no compunction about lying or distorting facts for political advantage and Labor are still crap at getting their message out.
That they can still be better off than a month ago against this backdrop is nothing short of a miracle.
‘Octopus’ has problems. It is variously called eight ‘armed’ and eight ‘legged.’ If eight legged, ‘octopodes’ makes since.
However, biologists generally only count two of its appendages as legs. This would make the correct name ‘Bi-pus’ or, if you are being familiar, ‘bi-pussy’.
mexican, I think the government has improved in every campaign in recent memory. And with opposition leaders with far better approval than Abbott
[Ironic it may be, our Olympic team was told to boycott the Moscow Games because Russia was in Afghanistan and some years later his then treasurer gets us in to the thick of Afghanistan. Let us all boycott the Lieberals for good measure.]
Oh please. The Soviets were in Afghanistan to impose Communism on the Afghans. The west is in Afghanistan to give them at least some chance of freedom from oppression and violence.
Actually boycotting the Moscow Olympics was about the only thing Fraser did that I approved of. They were just a festival of totalitarian propaganda, like the Berlin Olympics.
chinda63
If you know what ‘metrics’ means, can you untangle my puzzle of 152?
Are we going to keep a tally on the Rabbott’s porkbarrelling promises????
He has reaffirmed Chainsaws committment to $700 million dollar Toowoomba range crossing today.
Mind you the project is going to cost in the vicinity of $2+ billion.
[Thank you! I’m here all weak!]
So true.
Andrew – I think this is where the ALP have been really smart. They did something similar in 2007; said they were economic conservatives and they weren’t going to engage in a spendathon.
Evidently the Libs had to pull back some of their promises because polling showed the economic conservative line was biting.
The same thing will happen this time and Labor is at an advantage because they steered the country through the global recession. They have built up some economic cred because of it and, going into a campaign where the Leader of the Opposition is an admitted economic dunce, I confidently predict that Labor will cream them.
Boerwar – I assume it is from “others”, but I haven’t looked at the figures closely.
BRB when I’ve given them a squiz.
Gaffhook @ 161
I have often seen it written (and, indeed, have sometimes written it myself) that it always rains more under Labor but this is the first time that I have seen drought ascribed to a particular prime minister.
Okay – the “others” vote is 6.5% and I think these tend to go 50/50 or, at worst (for the ALP) 60/40.
or I should say, 40/60 against.
Chinda
Others equals 5%. Half for Labor would be 2.5%, which would bring the total to 52.5%.
[Actually boycotting the Moscow Olympics was about the only thing Fraser did that I approved of. They were just a festival of totalitarian propaganda, like the Berlin Olympics.}
Sometime i wonder if you arent overtaken by some tripping zomboid
This is one of those times
🙁
Chinda
Family first has 1.5%; others has 5%. Put together equals 6.5%, around half of which gets your to around 53.5%.
Ah, I will be able to sleep…
Dare we hope that during an election campaign, our lazy media might actually put some pressure on Abbott & his bunch of shadow ministers?
I’m not holding my breath! 😉
How old were you in 1980, Gusface?
evan14
That is the plan.
“”The west is in Afghanistan to give them at least some chance of freedom from oppression and violence.””
I thought it was to remove and destroy the Taliban
[The same thing will happen this time and Labor is at an advantage because they steered the country through the global recession. They have built up some economic cred because of it ]
But the coalition is still perceived as the better economic managers. Go figure.
Old enough to know
And have my parents attend
or were they totalitarian propogandists?
Evan, Abbott stuffed up on 2007 with Banton and Roxon without the pressure of being leader. I cant imagine he can survive a campaign as leader without major gaffes
Today I heard, ad infinitum, the ‘spin’ from various Libs rabbiting on about the debt and deficit and trying to paint Labor as — wait for it — incompetent for steering us through the GFC.
Apparently, if their spin is correct, the LIbs would have spent less, for better outcomes, and still maintained their surplus. And of course, no jobs would have been lost.
Someone in their advisor camp has decided they can rewrite recent history and get away with it.
[So it looks like my Labor vote will actually count for something. Is it a seat considered to be “at risk”?]
AllenM – you are talking about northern NSW, aren’t you? If so the Libs are working it hard and our son says they are pushing the AS and waste issues plus the blokiness of Abbott. I don’t think that’s going down well with the Greenies in the area (and not with our son who is not impressed).
Justine Elliott got about a 7.5% swing last time but I’m not sure what the new boundaries have done to it.
Psephos:
Personally i don’t think the Greens obsession with creating more and more National Parks will be remembered well in future. Australia will have a bigger population and we won’t be able to cram them all into existing areas.
Fraser also made sure that wheat exports to Russia at the same time went to absolute record levels.
There’s a pattern here: rhetoric to one side, the Commies/ Marxists did well out of Fraser… Russian and wheat, Mugabe and Zimbabwe.
Whatever happened to him when he went to Oxford? He’s on record saying that he met the smartest people there that he’d ever met. He left Nareen a country bumpkin and came back a motivated political animal (even if he did only garner a 3rd class degree).
While the focus at the time (and still to some extent today) was on the Communist influence on Labor politicians, the obvious best choice for the comrades was to try to get someone on-side who was a senior a member of the right-wing, agrarian-leaning party that had been in government for 27 out of the previous 30 years.
Now, where’s that tinfoil hat….?
Will Julia campaign with Rudd?
jenauthor, the coalition’s policy would have seen Australia in recession with a significant increase in unemployment. yet, they are still the preferred economic managers
[But the coalition is still perceived as the better economic managers. Go figure.]
Because the one thing the Coalition are good at is minimising the skill of their opponents & convincing others of their own greatness.
They do it every time.
This is the only area in which they excel.
Saw a Hawke preview last night. Hawke was there and gave a great speech. He stated that it was critical that Labor busted the two great Tory myths. That the Libs are better on national security and the economy. I agree
[And have my parents attend
or were they totalitarian propagandists?]
Unless they did something there to help the oppressed peoples of the USSR, or to protest in some way, they contributed to the success of the propaganda exercise that the Moscow Olympics were.
[Ultimately, the Australian Olympic Committee decided in a split vote to attend the Games, but some sport federations and athletes were pressured into boycotting the Games of their own volition. Many chose to stay at home, including such likely medallists as champion swimmer Tracey Wickham, sprinter Raelene Boyle and the Men’s Field Hockey Team. Ultimately a team of 127 athletes attended the Games. Months earlier, a team of 204 athletes had been approved before boycott talks began.
In protest of the Afghanistan invasion, Australia did not march behind the national flag in the Opening Ceremony. Instead, flag bearers Denise Boyd (athletics) and Max Metzker (swimming), Australia’s first joint-flag carriers, carried the Olympic flag. Thanks to the Russian alphabet, it was first after Greece (which has traditionally, since 1928, led the Parade of Nations, as the birthplace of the Olympics) in the Parade of Nations.]
SKYnoos and their current affairs shows have been hyperpopulated with Liberal hacks who obviously have learned their lines subliminally.
The guy on ‘The Nation’ yesterday repeated the exact same line so often I wondered if he was a wind-up doll (no exaggeration).
The myths have been so long perpetuated (i.e. national security and economy) that they are sure they’ll continue to hold true with the electorate.
If Julia and Co are smart, they’ll show this to be so false, the coalition will llose the last foundations of their so-called ‘stability for the nation’ meme.
[Michelle Ford — Swimming, Women’s 800 metres Freestyle
Neil Brooks, Mark Kerry, Peter Evans and Mark Tonelli — Swimming, Men’s 4x100m Medley Relay, known as the Mean Machine! ]
well known totalitarian propagandists
[The west is in Afghanistan to give them at least some chance of freedom from oppression and violence.
I thought it was to remove and destroy the Taliban]
The latter was a necessary precondition for achieving the former. Not sufficient, of course, but necessary.
Abbott going with a stability theme is too funny.
That really does cut through, doesn’t it? Gotta say I second that sentiment Andrew.
Who saved us from the Japs (while Menzies parked his fat arse on the Imperial War Cabinet leather)? Labor.
Who saved us form the GFC (while the Libs wailed and rent their garments about too much spending)? Labor.
Who’s ahead on National Security and The Economy? Liberals.
When you look at the individual elements of Economic Management – industrial relations, protecting us from the GFC etc. – Labor wins each time. But on the omnibus “Best to manage the Economy” question, the punters suddenly switch allegience and vote for the Libs.
I can’t figure it out, except maybe that the voters just think the Libs are “naturally” better at The Economy, while realising that, on the specifics, they’re hopeless. Unfortunately two-plus-two adds up to three for the slow thinkers out there.
[well known totalitarian propagandists]
To the extent that they legitimised the Soviet regime by their presence, and helped it to achieve its propaganda objectives, yes.