Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

What everyone expects to be the last Morgan face-to-face poll before tomorrow’s election announcement finds Labor’s two-party lead slipping from 56.5-43.5 to 53.5-46.5, if using the preference figure derived from the 2007 election results. However, Labor is evidently doing better now with respondent-allocated preferences, which Morgan is now using as the basis for its headline calculation, as their lead on that measure has only slipped from 55-45 to 54.5-45.5. The primary vote figures give Labor cause for concern: their primary vote is down five to 40.5 per cent, with the Coalition up three to 41 per cent and the Greens up 1.5 per cent to 12 per cent. This is very similar to the last poll under Kevin Rudd, except that Labor and the Greens are each 0.5 per cent lower with “others” 1 per cent higher.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

905 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 19
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  1. Andrew people shouldnt be forced to voter. Period.

    If they arent on the rolls too bad they didnt want to vote. It’s their choice.

  2. [In giving the young uns a few days to enrol, Gillard should point out that Labor did try to reverse Howard’s changes but, of course, blocked in the Senate.]

    A little risky. In such an event, it may be perceived as suppressing the vote just to prove a point…

  3. Okay but I am sure we have had election campaigns that are shorter than 33 days or am I just missing the point

    Don’t think we ever have, becasue I don’t think we ever could.

  4. So Kev has denied blabbing and Julia has reaffirmed he will be in her Ministry when she wins. That sound you hear is Julia slapping down some of the backroom boys. They backed her into a corner over the challenge: they won’t get the chance to do it again over the composition of her Ministry.

  5. Andrew people shouldnt be forced to voter. Period.

    Problem is most 18yos are not plitics tragics like us and only realise about the whole enrolements guff when an election is called.

  6. BH

    Frasers contribution was to make Whitlam’s reforms stick. Have you never wondered why they ended up the best of mates. And yes for me humane treatment of refugees is a big issue. Fraser did it right (with the support of Whit;am). The current crowd are hopeless.

    Keating on the other hand you have to admire for what he and he alone did.

  7. Maybe Labor should arrange for Labor and Liberal logos to be lowered into Paul the octopus’s tank? If as I suspect the cephalopod goes for the picture with the most red or yellow in it, the odds are good.

    Someone said in justifying the “psychic” tag that octopuses are colour blind but that is false 🙂

  8. TSOP

    Thank you for your kind advice. I always yearned for Rex Hunt to foul hook a Blue-ringed Octopus, haul it in, and kiss it.

    Yet another of life’s little disappointments.

  9. Like Andrew, I heard to day that Gillard will visit the GG tomorrow but ask the the writs be delayed until Wednesday to give people an opportunity to enrol or change details, and that the election will be for August 28.

    Actually, I heard the tip-off came from Gillard’s office…

  10. I may be wrong but the 21st seems weird, the lovely Kate spends the day with Green and Lib mates launching a “get the young uns” registered scheme and Julia cuts them off at 8 PM Monday?

    No logic there, well for me at least.

  11. [Glen
    Posted Friday, July 16, 2010 at 7:03 pm | Permalink
    Andrew people shouldnt be forced to voter. Period.

    If they arent on the rolls too bad they didnt want to vote. It’s their choice.]

    Yesterday I contributed to getups campaign to make it easy for the young to register. I think for the stability of society voting is important.

  12. [Maybe Labor should arrange for Labor and Liberal logos to be lowered into Paul the octopus’s tank? If as I suspect the cephalopod goes for the picture with the most red or yellow in it, the odds are good.]

    I would love to see that.

    Although, if he predicts a Coalition victory, I think was call safely say he’s a dud 😀

  13. Fraser was in the wrong party IMHO. His compassion for refugees after his period in power made me respect him later in his life. Hated his guts when he helped block supply.

  14. In such an event, it may be perceived as suppressing the vote just to prove a point…

    Suppressing?

    Whilst with the right negative talking point, hyperbolic language does rise, that was a poor choice of words (I am still unwell and very tired.)

    My point is, you don’t want to be seen as doing something negative just to demonstrate how bad it is that governments can do it.

  15. Socrates

    You are asking for trouble. Paul was actually after the mussels in each of the tank. Think of the mussel-barrelling!

  16. *we can safely.

    Serious typing fail. That’s what happens when you multi-task politics with eating dinner and toilet training a 2 year-old 😉

  17. [Instead of contrasting the radical and opposing views of the right, which should rightfully balance and strengthen the case for the centre, he will criticise BOTH parties equally.]

    The media will not criticise Brown either. The journos seem to love the Greens and SkyNoos helps them out as well – obviously going for preferences to the Libs.

  18. [Yesterday I contributed to getups campaign to make it easy for the young to register. I think for the stability of society voting is important.]

    Was that the one the Electoral Commissioner said was a dud, that the forms Get Up sends in will be rejected, becuase they do not conform with the electoral act?

  19. Glen, voting is compulsory. Closing the rolls early just disenfranchises new voters. Howard did it for political gain

  20. Labors taking a hit due to their East Timor stuff up.

    We are seeing a re-run of the Rudd days. Watch Labor bleed voters during the campaign.

  21. This result will no doubt make some a little apprehensive given Morgan FTF used to consistently over state Labor’s support in comparison to other polls.

    I don’t know if they have changed anything that has changed that aspect of their polling or if it is still the case. If it is still the case, and I gather it is then this figure could be closer still.

    JGillard seems to have hardly gotten a honeymoon at all, very surprising and probably because of the timing and manner of her power grab. It appears she is performing worse than Rudd who was trending upward in his fight against the miners. At best she is where Rudd would have been except without the trend, maybe.

    I also wonder about the incumbency factor. Rudd Labor certainly would have gotten that, the people would heavily associate government with Rudd. I think with Gillard it now becomes a matter of two new candidates fighting for the role of PM, and maybe that means a much reduced incumbency effect. This may be indicated also by Gillard’s lack of a honeymoon.

    The probability of a Rudd victory was very high considering his polling and his position in historical perspective, plus the benefit of incumbency.

    JGillard supporters would have been assuming that the popular and striking red haired woman with the novel accent would have gotten a good bounce in the polls. But so far I cant see much of that. Apart from many being turned off by her naked power grab her amateurish handling of the AS issue (and it was that) turned people off and her jump to the right may disconcerted some as well.

    I think JGillard will still win with a reasonable margin all things being equal. If it is 51.5/48.5 now after allowing for Morgan’s usual bias there is probably enough incumbency and novelty effect with JGillard to get her over the line at 52/48 or so.

    However it is now close enough that a major incident can sink her or the Libs. It is JGillard’s to lose from here. How she must be regretting her spiteful dumping of Rudd from the cabinet. Keeping him in the tent would have kept many a Rudd voter from the last election and made her look more of a leader instead of hungry for power.

    The irony in this is for the MSM. I stated a number of times over the past few years that they should be attacking the Libs for their hopeless behaviour and unwillingness to reform. If they had done that we may have had a much more competitive Liberal Party now and possibly with a good chance of victory. The MSM instead concentrated all its efforts on smearing and undermining Rudd (with a lot of help form factional Labor insiders leaking).

    A real BBQ stopper and game changer now would be a sudden challenge and resurgence from Turnbull. The MSM would be right behind him and promoting him as some Lawrence of Arabia, with possibly the ETS in hand that would put him a mile ahead of JGillard’s sad position. But time has run out for that. The best the Liberals can do, if they have an ounce of sense is to bring in Turnbull as shadow Treasurer. Just his appearance in the leadership team will give added credibility to the Libs.

  22. Boerwar

    Apparently the only way to survive a blue ring bite is to be out of the water and have somebody standing by to resuscitate you when you stop breathing.

    Octopuses…creepy! *shakes*

  23. [ Hated his guts when he helped block supply.]

    Funny isn’t it. If your honest all the changes that happened in the Whitlam/Fraser period are a joint legacy, yet people still go an about the blocking of supply. On reflection i’d like to change my nomination for best prime minister. Whitlam/Fraser or Keating.

  24. Could I be confusing it with State campaigns

    Have to say I don’t know the rules for those.

    2007 – announced, 15 Oct: writs, 17 Oct: election 24 Nov
    2004 – announced, 29 August: writs, 31 August: election 9 Oct

  25. [Maybe Labor should arrange for Labor and Liberal logos to be lowered into Paul the octopus’s tank? If as I suspect the cephalopod goes for the picture with the most red or yellow in it, the odds are good.]

    I guess that would make him… wait for it… a PSEPHOlopod! 😀

    *boom tish!*

    Thank you! I’m here all weak!

  26. TP

    I don’t expect that arrogant over-confidence is going to be a problem for either party, with those figures.

    The biggest theoretical issue for Labor seems to be whether the uniform swing law holds for them in the election.

    I would have thought that the chance of Turnbull being reinstated right now would be zero, with probability bars of zero.

  27. [Funny isn’t it. If your honest all the changes that happened in the Whitlam/Fraser period are a joint legacy, yet people still go an about the blocking of supply.]

    Wow what a rewriting of history. Fraser did nothing except give the country 10% interest rates, 10% inflation and 10% unemployment.

  28. fredn – Fraser didn’t dare back down on some of those reforms. The din was so loud after the dismissal that he took note and then won the next election.

    Did you know that the Electoral Office is saying that GetUp’s online campaign is likely to illegal and the enrolments invalid. They can’t accept online signatures without hard copy to compare and legitimise them.

  29. [Okay but I am sure we have had election campaigns that are shorter than 33 days or am I just missing the point]

    Not since 1984 we haven’t. That’s when the Hawke government overhauled the electoral act, adding, among many other things, the 33 day requirement

  30. [I would have thought that the chance of Turnbull being reinstated right now would be zero, with probability bars of zero.]

    Yes; unfortunately the Liberals aren’t quite up to doing a Hayden/Hawk.

  31. Can We Help just had a segment about words ending in -us and what their plurals are.

    I noticed that the plural of octopus is technically octopodes. So now you know.

    Thank you BH. I challenge anyone to type properly when you have a 2 year-old almost literally shoving a potty full of wee at you. I was having enough trouble typing one-handed while eating 😉

  32. [Did you know that the Electoral Office is saying that GetUp’s online campaign is likely to illegal and the enrolments invalid. They can’t accept online signatures without hard copy to compare and legitimise them.]

    NO doubt there will be a solution or a legal challenge, and I will happily contribute to the legal challenge. The challenge alone may get some action on the political front.

  33. [NO doubt there will be a solution or a legal challenge…]

    No it means that some people who think they have enrolled will rock up to the polling booth only to find out they are not. Thanks GetUp.

  34. jenauthor@117

    Fraser was in the wrong party IMHO. His compassion for refugees after his period in power made me respect him later in his life. Hated his guts when he helped block supply.

    I too hated his guts then. But I’m certain he wouldn’t have fitted into the Labor party, as it was then. Most of the current Labor parliament would not have fitted into Labor of the late 70s. Fraser hasn’t moved ideologically much in his own views, but appears rational and compassionate by contrast to the two right lurching majors these days.

    It just shows how far to the hard-line right we have drifted since Fraser’s time. I suspect it is partly due to the pandering to the ignorant element from the time of the ‘Joh for Canberra’ push in the late 1980’s and in the 90s by One Nation. The Libs took off over to the extreme right on race and immigration, even religion to cover the ground that the Joh mob and its successors were claiming.

    Labor felt it was obliged to follow (rather then argue on behalf of the truth) or risk losing the lowest common denominator vote. The rest is history and here we are with Labor stalwarts arguing on PB in favour of policies tailored to ignorance. Everything from institutionalised breaches of human rights and international obligations, to Christian sponsored censorship, all for cheap pursuit of power for its own sake.

    That’s the slippery slope that opens in front of political parties vying for every demographic through the medium of focus groups and polling. This results in setting policy for where people are rather than where they should be for the good of the nation. We are reaping the poisoned crop from that earlier seed-sowing in bushels right now with this government.

  35. [I noticed that the plural of octopus is technically octopodes. So now you know.]

    In the English language, the -s/-es plural is always acceptable.

    But points for not falling for the trap of going for the Latin -i plural, as it is Greek, and the plural as you said would be “octopodes”

    Fact is, due to the inconstant nature of the English language (the original language plural and the common English plural being acceptable) as well as the language being a medium of consensus, “octopuses”, “octopodes” and “octopi” are all valid plurals.

  36. BH @ 52

    So it looks like my Labor vote will actually count for something. Is it a seat considered to be “at risk”? My Labor votes in Fraser were never really needed as there was such a large majority. not that that would have stopped me marking the box.

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