What everyone expects to be the last Morgan face-to-face poll before tomorrow’s election announcement finds Labor’s two-party lead slipping from 56.5-43.5 to 53.5-46.5, if using the preference figure derived from the 2007 election results. However, Labor is evidently doing better now with respondent-allocated preferences, which Morgan is now using as the basis for its headline calculation, as their lead on that measure has only slipped from 55-45 to 54.5-45.5. The primary vote figures give Labor cause for concern: their primary vote is down five to 40.5 per cent, with the Coalition up three to 41 per cent and the Greens up 1.5 per cent to 12 per cent. This is very similar to the last poll under Kevin Rudd, except that Labor and the Greens are each 0.5 per cent lower with “others” 1 per cent higher.
My Say
We like your avatar as it is, we know where you stand!!
[Just looking at the seat of Richmond, it seems to have been an Anthony (as in Doug, Larry etc) fiefdom for most of its history! Are there any other little Anthonys who might want to take over? Heaven forfend.]
AllenMoyes – I hope they do too. No 2 son (a Greenie) has now decided to vote in Richmond for Labor to make sure the Libs or Nats don’t get the seat back. Said he can’t afford to give just a second preference to Labor this time. Hallelujah and stop the horses, I said!
[Glen
Is there anybody else in your Bruce Billson for PM club, or is it some fetish that you have conceived on your own?]
Nope, well unless Bruce Billson wants to be PM?
Looks like you’ve got it all sorted, then Fredn.
Have you worked out whether you’re male or female yet?
Andrew
Jeff Kennett in 99 probably went in well ahead but lost … but that is state.
Can anyone recall what the polls were showing in 93? If the ALP made up a lot of ground during the campaign?
[reliable. But frankly, I don’t think you have too much to worry about … unless your beloved Kevin makes a nuisance of himself.]
as i said i have come to terms with that one and think i was over estimating him when
he was first elected not his fault probably mine
“Anyone can rat, but it takes a certain ingenuity to re-rat.” Churchill, on rejoining the Tory Party after having been a Liberal for 20 years.
o also thanks for the confidence build i really appreciate it
blackburnpseph you know how abbott worries me sick
While handing out HTV cards for the ALP in Robertson during the Latham election, I noticed a taxi pull up and an old lady get out. She was dressed in a smart suit (it was a warm day) and was somewhat over ‘made-up’ with rouge and lipstick.
The Liberals (young & male) descended upon her, calling her by her name, all smiling and proffering HTV cards, telling her where she had to go and how to vote.
About twenty minutes later the lady was back out the front. She looked tired and distressed, saying that she didn’t know how she would get a taxi to get home. Her erstwhile Liberal ‘friends’ wanted nothing to do with her and went on plying their trade.
I looked at the Green woman next to me and said that I guessed we ought do something. The Green agreed and said immediately, “Look, I’m going to drive her home.”
I said, “Good on you: give me your HTV’s and I’ll hand them out (as well as my own) while you’re gone.”
This fine representative of the Greens was back in 20 minutes and we went on doing our respective jobs.
Now I know not all Liberals are self-seeking, power-hungry, unsympathetic morons. Some of my best friends are Liberals. But the instinctive humanity of the Green and Labor causes gives them more in common than divides them. So I hope we can stop squabbling and work for a better, fairer Australia – especially after Election 2010.
[“Anyone can rat, but it takes a certain ingenuity to re-rat.” Churchill, on rejoining the Tory Party after having been a Liberal for 20 years.]
Hear Hear!
BH
Hasn’t Justine Elliott, for all the criticism that she gets from some on this site, actually built up quite a margin in Richmond – 9% or close to?
So if the election is called tomorrow Tone will be addressing the LNP conference in Qld after the candidates have already been told to go back to their electorates.
Maybe Clive will be in the audience?
I have received a letter from BHP to all shareholders.
The Chairman has expressed that the proposed MRRT meets the desired principles of being prospective, internationally competitive, and of promoting investment.
BHP says that a good foundation has now been established on which an effective tax can be implemented.
BHP will continue to work with the government to ensure that the final outcome of the MRRT is in the long term interests of all Australians.
And Abbott still opposes it – what an opportunistic MORON! But does the MSM hold him to account – NO!
Those Labor supporters who were initially against the original RSPT like Briefly, and oh Centre, were right again. 😀
The Greens can go and stick to watering weed!
Well done Julia! 🙂
Andrew Greene of the ABC on Twitter: “2 Senior Labor sources say Julia G to visit G-G at ten thirty tomorrow morning to request an August 21 poll”
[Mr Garrett said species such as the Christmas Island hawk-owl and the abbott’s booby are already under threat due to development on the island.
Former environment minister Malcolm Turnbull made the same ruling three years ago, but his decision was overturned by the Federal Court because of administrative mistakes.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/16/2956099.htm?section=justin
I thought the Libs didn’t make any mistakes when they were in Government. Good to see Garrett cleaning up their botched procedures. It probably cost an arm and a leg in the Court too. Wasted funds from the Howard Govt.?
[Hasn’t Justine Elliott, for all the criticism that she gets from some on this site, actually built up quite a margin in Richmond – 9% or close to?]
A continuation of the long-term demographic trend that ended the electorate’s status as an Anthony family fiefdom in the first place.
Malcolm Turnbull challenges for leadership of the Parliamentary Liberal Party…
The question BH is – who took it to court to have Turnbull’s ruling overrruled?
Glen
.. and announce he wants Bruce Billson as his deputy?
[.. and announce he wants Bruce Billson as his deputy?]
Tease 😀
I’ll stick my neck out and predict two scenarios, both with Gillard winning. (a) That there is a tit for tat campaign with a 52/48 win or similar or (b) Abbott implodes and the win blows out to 54/46. What do you think? I just cant see Abbott out-campaigning Gillard no matter how the MSM portray it
And Brown at the debate? Mmm, no.
[“2 Senior Labor sources say Julia G to visit G-G at ten thirty tomorrow morning to request an August 21 poll”]
Does anyone know the process for issuing the writs?
[Now I know not all Liberals are self-seeking, power-hungry, unsympathetic morons. Some of my best friends are Liberals. But the instinctive humanity of the Green and Labor causes gives them more in common than divides them. So I hope we can stop squabbling and work for a better, fairer Australia – especially after Election 2010.]
Agree. I am a little annoyed that the Greens have recently been giving tacit support to Abbott by so strongly criticising Labor. They must think it’ll give them greater leverage after the election, when really, it won’t have much effect.
To even think the Libs would repay the Greens for any support (with positive Global Warming legislation), is simply self-delusion.
Libs will gain between 5-8 seats net.
Gillard wins election 52/48 with swings against in WA and QLD.
Don’t know if anyone’s already commented on it, but the 45% PV for labor in Morgan’s earlier poll was never realistic, any more that the 45% in the Neilson poll was. This one is far more likely to be on the mark.
It’s also worth noting that all the AS crap is factored in and Labor is still comfortably in front.
I don’t think we have anything to complain about.
If the election is to be on 21 August, then the writs need to be issued on Monday at latest, to allow a minimum 33 days
Well lets all hope the phoney war ends tomorrow morning. Who wants to bet that there will be people out tonight jumping the gun and putting up election posters before the anouncement, I presume illegally?
Good luck Julia (provided you stick to some principles vaguelly recognisable as progressive) and even Bob Brown, who has a considerable opportunity if he keeps the crazies under control. As for Abbott, he is one of teh crazies, so I hope the voters keep him under control.
One question: delaying the writs closing for a few days to make sure everyone is registered is a good idea. This obviously applies to the young. Does anyone know the situation for new imigrants and citizens? There are a surprisingly large number of people in these categories in some electorates.
Andrew – we’ll all do predictions etc as the campaign unfolds but I am going to say that they will lose 3 or 4 seats and gain 1 or 2. A nothing campaign will result in a nothing election night (in terms of change and drama).
[If the election is to be on 21 August, then the writs need to be issued on Monday at latest, to allow a minimum 33 days]
Thanks, I realise that but does the GG issue them? Difficult if she is not in the country, does Bashir issue them?
[Now I know not all Liberals are self-seeking, power-hungry, unsympathetic morons. Some of my best friends are Liberals. But the instinctive humanity of the Green and Labor causes gives them more in common than divides them. So I hope we can stop squabbling and work for a better, fairer Australia – especially after Election 2010.][
AGoodLurk – thanks for that. I’ve seen similar happen and it churns your stomach but the sad part is that it doesn’t even register with the selfish sods.
I heard that Gillard wanted to announce Sat with the writs issued/rolls closing Wed. Aug 21 doesnt allow that, would have to be 28th
I could just hear Brown at a debate. Instead of contrasting the radical and opposing views of the right, which should rightfully balance and strengthen the case for the centre, he will criticise BOTH parties equally.
No way, the Greens are BAD news. Go and debate Pauline Hanson!
Glen 74
I suspect that is a fair guess, unless someone asks some hard questions of Tony Abbott in the campaign (if ever a PM should offer to debate their challenger, Gillard should offer to Tone!).
For me the real crunch is in the Senate: lets hope we get rid of Fielding. If Labor does another preference deal with him they need to see the same psychiarist.
I aghree with Glen to a point.
I expect swings to the Liberals in WA and Queensland but Victoria, SA and Tassie will be solid ALP with NSW being a toss up.
52/48 would be a nice winning margin for the ALP. if Abbot repeats his 2007 performance I would not be shocked to see a 54 or 55 for the ALP.
And I suspect Melbourne is 50/50 with the ALP in the mid forties on the primaries.
[Does anyone know the process for issuing the writs?]
Writs for the House of Reps are issued by the GG acting on the advice of the PM. They must be issued within ten days of the dissolution. Writs for the Senate are issued by the state Governors at the request of the GG.
Yeah but Cheesy will still fall to Sarah Henderson 😀
Glen – I agree that Corrangamitte is the only seat the ALP may drop in Victoria but equally at risk for the Liberals is McEwen and to a lessor extent La Trobe.
[Can’t decide if Fraser ]
fredn – I truly surprised to hear that. I thought he was a disappointing pollie and PM but much better after his loss. Apart from his compassion to Vietnamese boat people I can’t remember him doing anything of much value. Of course, he let his Treasurer leave us in a fine mess.
[McEwen and to a lessor extent La Trobe.]
Agreed.
So it is possible for Jules to call for a Aug 21 poll but hold off on the writs for up to 10 days.
Does anyone know if the 52-48 that Howard took into the 2001 election was reflected in the Morgan poll at the time?
This probably sounds like a dumb question but can parliament be dissolved and the writs issued simultaneously?
[So it is possible for Jules to call for a Aug 21 poll but hold off on the writs for up to 10 days.]
No, there must be a minimum of 33 days between the writs and the election.
Well, time for today’s score.
As expected, the newspapers started with Gillard’s role in Rudd’s sacking as the main agenda, except where they were focussed on Melbourne Storm as No 1 issue. Emerson confirmed that Rudd would get a senior job and Rudd dived for cover except for announcing that it wasn’t him what ratted. Gillard repeated her honour line with conviction and sooner or later the journos are going to look stupid asking the same question and getting the same answer. The agenda was a win for Abbott but the narratives were all over the place with Gillard probably just ahead on points.
Hawke and Keating managed to shut up for the entire day, which can only be a plus for Gillard.
Abbott did not seem to have his heart in the instability line. His body language is conflicted at the moment. Abbott appears to have had speech therapy. Even in attack mode his tone was dulcet today. He must be after the women’s vote.
Asylum seekers off the radar for the day.
Abbott kicked an own goal with his lovely mate recording and then publishing Abbott’s call. It seems you can’t trust some people. This also drew a small amount of tension on instability within the LNP.
Roxon got two blows in today – one at Abbott to explain his call and the second to announce ‘My Hospital’ whatever that is … I imagine it will be something like ‘My School’.
.
By day’s end the dominant story was whether Prime Minister Gillard would go to the GG. Footage of Gillard was good – lots of smile and she got her forwards and backwards meme across.
Clear win for Gillard – 2 points. Cumulative score after day 10, Gillard 11, Abbott 9.
The daily scoring will be reset once the real campaign starts. In order not receive too much personal contumely I will be handing over the daily scoring to a good friend of mine, The Blue-ringed Octopus.
I think it can be but I would image that Jules will want the virgin voters to have time to enrol.
[No way, the Greens are BAD news.]
Yes — they are. There is too much of an element of unreality about their policies. While their ideologies are noble — they are unworkable. The trouble is their adherents don’t appear to understand that. Governing requires consensus and compromise. Implementing ‘out there’ policies for ‘our own good’ is a nonsense. (After all, isn’t that the Taliban’s rationale?)
Brown, though leader, shouldn’t be in the debates because he won’t end up in the lower house, where the actual governing government lives.
Okay but I am sure we have had election campaigns that are shorter than 33 days or am I just missing the point
That was the early rumour, but it seems the 21st is now the date. Why I have no idea.
Surely delaying the issuing of the writs wold give the Govt another 3 days to sign off on some grants etc (plus giving the young folk a couple more days to get on the roll)
[In order not receive too much personal contumely I will be handing over the daily scoring to a good friend of mine, The Blue-ringed Octopus.]
Don’t let your friend bite you. There is no antidote!
In giving the young uns a few days to enrol, Gillard should point out that Labor did try to reverse Howard’s changes but, of course, blocked in the Senate. Why would you want to give people less time to enrol? Of course, if they were mostly young and going to vote against you. One of the more dispicable Howard acts.