Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

What everyone expects to be the last Morgan face-to-face poll before tomorrow’s election announcement finds Labor’s two-party lead slipping from 56.5-43.5 to 53.5-46.5, if using the preference figure derived from the 2007 election results. However, Labor is evidently doing better now with respondent-allocated preferences, which Morgan is now using as the basis for its headline calculation, as their lead on that measure has only slipped from 55-45 to 54.5-45.5. The primary vote figures give Labor cause for concern: their primary vote is down five to 40.5 per cent, with the Coalition up three to 41 per cent and the Greens up 1.5 per cent to 12 per cent. This is very similar to the last poll under Kevin Rudd, except that Labor and the Greens are each 0.5 per cent lower with “others” 1 per cent higher.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

905 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. Psephos@698

    OK it’s nearly 11am, what’s going on? (Days like this are the rare occasions I regret not having a TV.)

    Julia is with Quentin having a Cuppa and Gasbag 🙂

  2. So are the betting odds correct , if so tweet her Frank
    experts here tell me what do the betting odd s mean and how does it happen and who works it out.

    if the amount is big re 4.00 so that means they are NOT the favourites?

  3. [OK it’s nearly 11am, what’s going on? (Days like this are the rare occasions I regret not having a TV.)]

    Cheers, I think you just answered my question.

  4. [Candidates always sense strong positive sentiment towards them for some reason. ]

    Most people are polite, few people seriously care about politics, and very few people really want to have an unpleasant encounter with an MP in public. So most MPs shaking hands in a shopping centre will get a 90% positive response no matter what the real state of public opinion is. Sensible MPs should know this, but they always tend to read too much into these encounters.

  5. [if the amount is big re 4.00 so that means they are NOT the favourites?]

    That’s right. The markets have been wrong in the past of course and tend to react to polls. The odds might narrow quickly.

  6. [and very few people really want to have an unpleasant encounter with an MP in public. So most MPs shaking hands in a shopping centre will get a 90% positive response ]

    not from me they wouldnt i would say exactly what i think to a liberal

  7. The odds most certainly will change. In whose favour, who knows?

    It won’t be until the last week that the polls and betting odds will be more ironclad.

  8. [ People read and watch the media that tells them what they want to hear.

    By that logic, what media would you watch as a ALP supporter ?]
    No MSM at all? Perhaps Crikey?

  9. Gillards odds are better than Rudds were at the start of the 2007 campaign. Rudd was against Howard, Gillard is against Abbott

  10. From Grog:

    GrogsGamut

    I love The Oz: ALP changes policy – it’s a backflip. Abbott changes IR policy – it’s a blow to Labor #aus2010 1 minute ago via TweetDeck

  11. [OK it’s nearly 11am, what’s going on? (Days like this are the rare occasions I regret not having a TV.)]
    Gillard news conference due at noon.

  12. [By that logic, what media would you watch as a ALP supporter ?]

    People would skim over stories in papers/other media that didn’t conform with their views and read those that do. It’s not all bad for Labor no matter what some might say. You get about 25-30% positive coverage.

  13. [People would skim over stories in papers/other media that didn’t conform with their views and read those that do.]
    Reading headlines seems to be an exercise in being deceived.

  14. [Abbott changes IR policy – it’s a blow to Labor]

    Everything is a “blow to Labor”

    The fact we managed to force the Libs to postpone one of the core principles, shows much on the back foot the Libs are…

  15. [The fact we managed to force the Libs to postpone one of the core principles,]

    They haven’t postponed it though. We all know it’s just a smokescreen. Anyone who thinks Minister Abetz would be able to resist dragging IR laws back to the WorkChoices days (or worse) is deluding themself.

  16. Itep, they will postpone it, simply because they most likely would be able to get it through the 2011-2014 Senate. They need to embed themselves in government first.

  17. Hmm. from Richo:

    # Sean Mulcahy the_kennel

    Graham Richardson, “I can’t think of one election I couldn’t pick five weeks out in the last 20-25 years, this one, I’m not sure” #ausvotes less than 10 seconds ago via web

  18. [They haven’t postponed it though.]

    Not even rusted on Liberals would believe Abbott’s pledge to postpone a reintroduction of severe IR legislation.

  19. [they will postpone it, simply because they most likely would be able to get it through the 2011-2014 Senate]

    Well that depends entirely on the election result. If Labor perform spectacularly badly in WA and Qld, Senator Xenophon might hold the sole balance of power in the Senate in which case IR reforms might be able to go through.

  20. Hmm:

    Annerley_Labor

    Out and about this morning – a fantastic level of support for Federal Labor. Tony Abbott definitely on the nose. less than 20 seconds ago via Twitter for iPhone

  21. Psephos@736

    The ABC’s political coverage is being led by the husband of a candidate – has this ever happened before?

    Not as far as I’m aware – and most unsuitable IMHO – though to be fair he is being rather impartial.

  22. [Not as far as I’m aware – and most unsuitable IMHO – though to be fair he is being rather impartial.]

    Maybe even over compensating ?

  23. [though to be fair he is being rather impartial.]

    He’ll have to tread very carefully.

    To be fair, Maxine McKew did political journalism of a high standard while she was married to Bob Hogg, the ALP National Secretary, so it can be done.

  24. I see there is still a struggle to decide which one they prefer: to attack Gillard as no different from Rudd or attack her as somebody who “assassinated” a “good PM”?

  25. They replied to my Tweet:

    Annerley Labor Annerley_Labor

    @frankscan65 we are doing street stalls in Annerley, Fairfield & Tarragindi in Qld. People wishing ALP good luck & glad @KRuddMP is running. less than a minute ago via Twitter for iPhone in reply to frankscan65

  26. [while she was married to Bob Hogg, the ALP National Secretary, ]

    You mean unmarried to Bob Hogg. And still unmarried to Bob Hogg.

    Common Law maybe! 😉

  27. scorpio@745

    while she was married to Bob Hogg, the ALP National Secretary,

    You mean unmarried to Bob Hogg. And still unmarried to Bob Hogg.

    Common Law maybe!

    At least she isn’t unmarried to Bob Ellis. 🙂

  28. For those who usually whine about ABC being biased to the Liberal Party, the coverage this morning has definitely been almost completely slanted to the ALP. A couple of minutes for Sinodinos and then the rest of the time for Rudd’s former advisor.

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